Who would have thought that creating a large well-armed mercenary army including a large proportion of convicts would turn out to be a bad idea?
I am not going to pretend to know what is going to happen – I did not predict Russia invading Ukraine. But here are a few thoughts:
It is very hard to see how Prigozhin and Putin both come out of this alive.
Prigozhin crossed a line yesterday when he started criticising not just the conduct of the Ukraine war, but its pretext.
Today, Putin’s speech made no overtures towards Prigozhin. He did not offer to dismiss the defence minister or bring Prigozhin on board. He characterised this as a rebellion – although holding out the prospect of an amnesty to the rank and file of Wagner if they desisted – and compared it to an eclectic mix of rebellions against central authority in Russian history.
This seems to be an attempted coup.
It does not have widespread popular support. Ordinary Russians are entirely surprised and bemused. Prigozhin had obtained a measure of popularity with the narrative that Wagner were the most effective of patriotic fighters, but that does not mean people want him to run Russia.
I do not see this developing into a sustained civil war. Civil wars in states are sustained by ethnic, ideological or religious division. None of that seems to apply in this case. It is hard to see what would motivate Russian troops to kill each other.
The caveat is of course that Wagner has its own morale and identity, forged in combat and sustained by a common mercenary motivation. There is a strong sociopathic element in any mercenary outfit, and one including many criminals still more so. It is therefore possible Wagner will be more ruthless and motivated than government troops opposing them.
A fast strike for Moscow is not a hopeless plan for Wagner.
Wagner does not have an air force. The Russian air force is an elite liable to remain largely loyal to Putin, which could be crucial.
I don’t see this turning into a widespread Russian civil war. I expect it will be over, one way or another, in a fortnight. One problem with mercenaries is that somebody else might pay them more, and I don’t rule out that Prigozhin has been turned.
But we should all hope that, rather than unleash more chaos across Eastern Europe, this development brings negotiations and an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
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It reminds of the attempted coup against Turkey’s president Erdogan a few years back, If I recall correctly Turks rose up and helped quell the coup against the countries president, though the attempted coup was carried out by the army and not by mercenaries backed probably by the West.
“and I don’t rule out that Prigozhin has been turned.”
The above is probably the truth of the matter, what has Prigozhin been offered in return for his services, money? to become a puppet president of Russia? who knows.
Could be. Maybe Biden & Nuland think they can replay what they achieved in Ukraine in 2014? Problem is Moscow has nowhere near enough pro-US Nazis to overthrow the democratically elected government. Also Russians well know the country’s fate the last time Washington was running things in the nineties – and also what Washington’s BlackRock-led “reconstruction” of Ukraine has entailed.
> mercenaries backed probably by the West.
You’re seriously suggesting that Prigozhin is “probably” backed by the West? Everywhere his fighters have deployed, they have backed forces that oppose Western interests.
The suggestion is that somebody might have paid them more money now to go against Putin.
Gig economy mate…people work for the highest bidder
Jimmeh.
The clue is in the sentence – mercenaries.
It’s a fact that Prigozhin and his utterances has been appearing in the western media for the last month or more. That indicates, to me, that nefarious forces are probably in touch with him. Maybe, it’s simply ego and he believes he is more important than he actually is – pride comes before a fall, he will regret this move.
I just watched ‘I was Monty’s double’ a few nights ago.
I feel folks are more gullible nowadays than in the past.
I blame the education system.
Exactly. Maskirovka at the Russian say. 5 000 from Wagner heading from Ukraine to Moscow and 300,000 Russian troops going the other way to meet them. I wonder what the real plan is.
Prigozhin is telling a particular kind of lie for example he stated Kiev has never shelled Donbass (it happened again yesterday with NATO weapons)..
No Russian could take that seriously but Kiev and NATO will lap it up.
Yes. – There is not much point selling a story unless you are going to be convincing.
Prigozhin appeared to have started going ‘off-message’ a couple of months ago in Bakhmut/Artemovsk.
I wonder if the Ukraine forces are wanting to cease fighting, and the RF are trying to encourage them to keep going.
I assume that the RF could have destroyed the Dnipro bridges anytime in the last year.
Yes, definitely maskirovka.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_deception
Don’t focus on the immediate actions (theatre) watch the longer term outcomes.
Ukraine seems to have used these events as a prompt to start actions along the line of contact – sucked in.
Many Russians whose loyalty to the nation was not strong have come out in support of the ‘revolt’ – traitors exposed.
Looks like Wagner troops who stayed out of the revolt will be inducted into the Russian armed forces – loyalty test.
Prighozhin (maybe with part of the Wagner complement) is relocating to Belarus, Kadyrov and the Chechens and other Russian forces have moved west – positioning for the next phase.
Pro-Western media outlets and likely CIA assets have expressed their support for Prighozhin – fifth columnists rooted out.
And that’s just a start, in less than 24 hours. Keep watching the outcomes. Nothing in Russia is ever as it seems – remember the matryoshka dolls – layer after layer of hidden secrets.
I am inclined to agree with your assessment, Chris.
I wonder how much he persuaded NATO to give him?
What particularly worries me about this – as well as every other development in Ukraine right now – is the support this will offer to the narrative of an otherwise-completely-self-destructive-and-illogical Russian destruction of the Zaporivisak Power Plant.
Here in the West we’re all too aware of what these despots will resort to when cornered – blowing up their own pipelines and dams, crossing chemical weapon red-lines when they’re on the verge of victory – or at least that’s the accepted wisdom.
So I’m very worried that we’ll see an incident there, followed rapidly by plenty of the usual faces (Hamish DBG etc) offering us variations on the theme of “In the chaos of the coup, under-pressure at home and with continued advances of the dogged Ukrainians, Putin decided to…”
I do hope I’m wrong.
Right. The Russians will blow up their own NPP, irradiating their own positions and necessitating a withdrawal well to the rear of their defensive lines. Also depriving themselves of the main Electrical Power supply for main naval base and for the region, which they control.
That, after multiple attacks by Western HIMARS on the plant, which has caused the plant to be powered down to a resting state.
What do you use instead of logic?
Presumably the same logic that has the Russians spend bazillions and fight US, sanctions to build a gas pipeline, then, when the valves are in any case, closed at both ends, so that stopping supply means simply keeping their valve closed, they demolish the pipes so that business cannot be restored in the near future. That after Joe Biden blabbed to the press, months earlier, “not to worry, that he had the capability of shutting the pipes and that he would do so if Russia invaded Ukraine”.
Similarly with the Dam, if they wanted to flood the area, the Russians controlled that dam and even though it had likewise, previously suffered some damage (from HIMARs) if they wanted, they could simply open the sluices, if they thought it would be worth an advantage to flood the reservoir and river, which it wasn’t.
I expect your eyes are very brown.
@intp1 – I should have been more clear – i think that any ‘incident’ at the ZPP would not be down to the Russians – for the reasons you state (and more) – but that’s the way it would be sold to us in the West. I named the Dam, Nordstream & Syria where they’ve used that narrative before despite the evidence to the contrary in each case (although IMHO the jury is still out for the Dam, i think the other two are pretty clearly not down to the culprits found guilty in the West).
My eyes are brown though.
Maybe Prigozhin has something planned for the international day of torture on coming Monday.
I feel that it is too early to call this a coup, as much as the bbc wants us to speculate.
I also miss the mention of ceasefire, the need for observing it and a call for negotiations that lead to peace.
Let’s wait and see why Prigozhin was not apprehended earlier; he was a thorn in Putin’s eye for a while.
I would pay to see Shoigu and Prigozhin in the ring with a minimum of 3 rounds.
This twist is like something out of a Tom Clancy novel. But then again the whole conflict is. I much prefer it when wars remain the fevered imaginings of authors.
Is this Putin’s “Decembrist” moment.
If so hopefully it will be quelled just as quickly.
Interesting. Back in the days of the ‘Gulag’ the prison system of Russia in general tended to make use of prisoner elements to act as unpaid warders, this in turn being emulated to some degree by the NAZI’s and their KZ system.
The extent to which the PMC Wagner is composed of prison inmates on effective parole seems uncertain, but what has come from the mouth of Prizgozin is that the drop out rate in training is high. This might suggest a preponderance of only the the most determined of the criminal class amongst the ranks of the Wagner crowd. And probably those who were on the right side of any vestigial policies within the current Russian prison system ?
What pictorial evidence that has emerged at this early stage seems to show the Wagner individuals exhibiting a sense of the cavalier, and no doubt a feeling of some elitism following their hard slog to gain Artemovsk.
They’ll be no match for disciplined troops, and I’d have to think any sense of their superiority over regulars beckons disappointment. Added to which it seems unlikely that the Russian government would have been ignorant of the potential for Caeserism to follow in the wake of their building up of Wagner for a specific task, and will consequently have ensured that their capabilities are hobbled.
Well, to answer your (rhetorical?) question, Niccolò Machiavelli had some fairly choice criticisms of mercenaries. From an English translation of The Prince, chapter 12:
Of course, different time, different place, and Machiavelli had his own agenda (restoring Republican Roman culture to Italy, probably). Nowadays many mercenaries seem to be ex-Special Forces, though in the British Empire the distinction between ‘ex’ and ‘serving’ has often been blurred.
In this instance those who were recruited from the penal system have something to bind them inasmuch as their satisfactory performance is the only thing that keeps them from being returned to the chokey. Even given that criminality is generally the predilection of the stupid, it may be the case that self interest prevails over the ambition of Prigozin ? In any event its not entirely clear to what extent the Wagner mob is composed of former inmates, or even foreigners ? And its certainly the case that much like the French and their Légion étrangère, the officer corps will be Russian, and that the officers at field and staff level will no doubt be Russian old sweats, and under no illusions about what is likely to happen next.
Prigozin has no military experience beyond his being CEO of the Wagner group, and going by his latest video’s appears to be in the process of morphing into Nosferatu. 🙂
@Casual Observer, I haven’t been following the Wagner drama closely, but what do the nations who opposed (or have not ratified) the International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries have in common?
Indeed, the Gurkhas spring to mind, and the fact that our kate depends in some part on ‘Commonwealth’ citizens to fill places.
If we delve deeply into the terms used, and on the assumption that the vast bulk of the Wagner crowd are in fact Russian, then maybe the term mercenary is being used here in the same sense that we have billionaires, whereas the Russian equivalent is termed an oligarch ? Certainly the difference between a ‘Professional’ soldier, and a mercenary would make for interesting debate.
Its also worth remembering that its only in comparatively recent times that the French Foreign Legion cleaned up its act with regard to the character of those it enlisted. 🙂
Prigozhin and Putin met 10 days ago, so I would not be so sure that this is a “coup” attempt rather than an elaborate psyops that has been in play for the past six months. Afterall, this “offensive” has been telegraphed by Ukraine/NATO for longer than that and a NATO summit is occurring in July.
It could be a way of distracting Ukraine/NATO in a look here, not there misdirection. We should find out soon.
A coup without aircraft (as in Turkiye) or even air defense does not make sense. Especially, given that that NATO has not seen any success in their current “counter” offensive.
In addition, Wagner and the regular military have not come into conflict in Rostov, and people are behaving normally today, as if nothing is happening.
> A coup without aircraft (as in Turkiye) or even air defense does not make sense.
Wagner has captured a strategic airbase in Rostov. Prigozhin has “promised” not to interfere with their ongoing missions in Ukraine; but in this environment, I take promises to be a veiled threat of the reverse of what’s promised.
I.e., if you promise something meaningful, then that implies that you’re in a position to not deliver on that promise.
I’d believe Prigozhin’s promises as far as I could throw him (he seems to be a big lad, so not very far).
It was a putsch without even a slogan, far less a political aim. No attempt was made to reach out to the wider citizenry in what on the surface appears to have been a revolt hatched in the barracks. The so-called march on Moscow was either hare-brained or a deception.
But the western media did have a glut of shadenfreude for a few hours, licking their lips at the prospect of civil war inside Russia. Prigozhin is actually all the things that western media falsely claim Putin is.
This turn of events is so bizarre to the extent that it’s just about conceivable that Prigozhin is indeed playing some kind of orchestrated psyops with the Kremlin’s (secret) backing.
Though how it ‘helps’ Russia is hard to fathom. Certainly the west seems gleeful at this turn of events and generally the west is wrong with most of its hopes regarding other countries (especially Russia) and how things pan out in the end.
Nothing would be surprising but it’s difficult to see how staging this could benefit Russia. It portrays a chaotic, weak and divided leadership on the verge of collapse which is exactly what Ukraine and their supporters want to see. It didn’t play out this time but will only make Ukraine, the US and others feel that it’s inevitable it will happen again and that their chances of victory are higher, and it will strengthen support for the west to pour more weapons and money into Ukraine in anticipation of the next leadership chaos or attempted coup in Russia.
This is more than a storm in a teacup as reflected in Putin’s speech in response to the developing situation, but I think it will be resolved fairly quickly as there is too much at stake to allow it to continue. The video of the outdoor meeting between a Russian defence minister and Prigozhin, with the former appearing to humour the latter, did not convey a sense of crisis.
There is a certain irony in having a brutal dictatorship as Russia is commonly portrayed allowing a private corporation to assume so much power as to get into a position imagining that it is capable of biting off the hand that feeds it.
It is also ironic that the penalty for Prigozhin if being found guilty of armed rebellion under Article 279 of the Russian Criminal Code would be a mere 12 – 20 years in prison compared with the effectively life sentence that Julian Assange faces in a USA prison. No doubt a psychiatric assessment might also suggest mitigating factors.
> allowing a private corporation to assume so much power as to get into a position imagining that it is capable of biting off the hand that feeds it.
Most of Wagner’s activities have been overseas, and presumably profitable.
My guess is that Prig has been tolerated (by Putin) because it suits Putin to have his defence ministers and generals constantly looking over their shoulders. He keeps sacking generals on active service, then re-appointing them to some new command six months later.
Now Putin is talking of mutiny and treason.
Wagner seems to be in a precarious position. They have the Russian army (and Ramzan Kadyrov) behind them, and as far as I can see the National Guard in front. But Russia can’t deploy frontline troops from Ukraine to oppose Wagner, just as Ukraine is finishing its preparations for a counteroffensive. And I’m not sure that the National Guard is up to fighting a force of seasoned, well-armed troops that have already captured the largest city in Southern Russia, along with all its military bases, supplies and equipment. Including the HQ of Russian operations in Ukraine.
Yea, having an army in your country someone else pays is pretty smart. I wonder if the 625 million that the Pentagon just found it had over charged Ukraine so was due to them found a different home instead.
Come into my Parlour – said the Spider to the Fly.
Either Prigozhin is genuinely pissed off – or he has been bought off.
If it’s ‘buy off’ then this is more about Moscow/Russian politics by the payer of the ‘pay off’.
Ukraine is still not the reason for the West’s support but the replacement of a Putin government with a more pro-Western government is the main aim as it always was and thereby damaging the real danger China and its relationship with Russia and the other members of the BRICS.
By the way – The Communist Party is the second largest grouping in the Duma. The West would not like them to fill the Putin gap. So, if all this is down to politics, then the West requires a return to the Yeltsin days and nothing else will do.
I read that currently in The Duma that not one rep has come out in support of Prigozhin personally. If that’s the case – who are Prigozhin’s actual backers in Moscow/Russia of this attempted coup?
Back to the Spider.
I am not being a Deckchair General here, but let’ s say this is a bluff?
The Wagner Group have created a big gap for the Ukranian fighters to walk through by pulling back from the front line. It is only a theory but that could be a trap – we shall see because if thousands of Ukrainian troops are allowed to walk into recapture their past losses, they could end up surrounded. Only a theory of course.
Or this is just politics and if it is The Russians will support Putin over Prigozhin any day of the week as they will realise that the West’s attempt at the Maidanisation/ Color (deliberate US spelling here) revolution of Russia is what’s really going on here.
History repeats itself – you know the rest.
The onus for this mess is completely with the russian military, they could have resolved this internal schism with Wagner months ago, but ignored and threw Wagner under the bus early into the invasion, even though Wagner is the actor that have made the most advances, gains on the russian side the russian military have been ungrateful and unhelpful through and through to Wagner.
Take a look at this video with Prigozhin, even though I do not support the war nor Wagner and their coup attempt, Prigozhin speaks the truth here – you can relate 100% with what he is angrily yelling, the invasion has turned into a mess with thousands dead russian men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-bALDPCp4w
If Russia lose Wagner as a force in the war, well then Ukraine will have greater success on the battlefield.
Complete blunder by Russia … now they fight Ukraine + Collective west + Domestic Anti-russian militias + Wagner.
Good luck winning that war!
Now I watch clips with Russians fighting Russians, airplane, helicopter shot down by Wagner and vice versa. Terrible.
West and Ukraine pop popcorn today and frankly they should watching this cringy development.
I hear that Medvedev has fled Moscow; and that Putin has decamped to St. Petersburg. The Kremlin is insisting that Putin is working in the Kremlin; maybe that’s “remote working”.
I heard this second-hand from Twitter, which I’ve never used. Can anyone substantiate these rumours?
lol… need to fact check that!
Putin’s private jet was tracked leaving Moscow and heading for St Petersburg before its transponder was switched off. In the circumstances it’s unlikely it would’ve left without him and why else turn the transponder off?
Remember 9/11, they had Bush in the air flying around for quite a while, presumably also with the transponder turned off ? One might imagine the Russians have similar protocols in place for times of national stress.
Bush didn’t know how to react either. When Hitler’s forces crossed the border in 1941 Stalin retreated to his Dacha and suffered a meltdown; such was the level of fear and paranoia everybody was too scared to use their initiative and do something.
Nonsense.
What you have heard is the BBC, Daily Mail, MSM anti russian line. 100% BS, IMO.
Correct Stevie Boy.
Indeed. Lukashenko was supposed to have fled to Turkey before he magically appeared to stitch up some kind of compromise.
BTW, every Russian knows that in the event of a national emergency there is a deep underground metro next to the Kremlin capable of taking the leadership to an emergency H.Q.
Putin will survive.
But fellow-‘convict’ Khodorkowsky would be ready to work with him acc. BBC in the 17:00 airstrip one newsflash special.
My previous comments from last week are relevant: Especially 2nd to last post of https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/06/dangers-of-ai-revealed-as-israeli-bullet-decides-to-kill-somebody/comment-page-2/#comments
Putin has always been saying how one should not back a rat into a corner – which I didn’t quite understand (because it suggests Putin thinks he is rat??). However, it is now clear. It was a poor decision for Shoigu and Putin to try to force Wagner under their control and honestly the decision to not sign these contracts was probably not made by Prighozhin but collectively by the Wagner group as a whole – while fighting in Ukraine they presumably built up a lot of personal loyalty.
Putin has always been saying how one should not back a rat into a corner
It apparently comes from an incident in his childhood when he saw a rat on the stairs and chased it. Unfortunately he trapped it and decided to beat a hasty retreat.
Cornered rats and people can do some very nasty things.
It’s possible Prigozhin has been persuaded to turn by outlandish promises from Lindsey Graham, Khodorkovsky and co.
More likely he simply has PTSD and has become a Kurtz-like figure. I doubt his Kurtz phase will last long or end well.
From my understanding, this is probably very largely the result of the the Russian government not paying the Wagner troops various social benefits in June. Priigozhin was asked to sign his group up for these benefits and he refused hence the “coup”. It is pretty well known that Prigozhin and Shoigu don’t get on. Alina Lippp is in Rostock on Don reporting on events. Here is the link to Thomas Roper’s Anti-Spiegel on the issue https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2023/wie-es-zu-dem-putschversuch-kam-und-wie-die-aktuelle-lage-ist/. If you don’t read German use the translate button – it does work. If you are blocked from the sight – we aren’t in Canada – I can copy/paste the article.
But the comments of the ‘foristen’ are also interesting
Having the luxury of Russian TV in the UK, there is no violence at this stage. Rostov-on-Don is peaceful. There is an awful lot of uncorroborated crap on social media including stuff emanating from Prigozhin. Most of my Russian friends think that the oligarch money behind wagner/Prigozhin has been paid off by the west to create trouble. The business of getting Wagner soldiers to sign MOD contracts in order to get similar state benefits was really to bring the entire organisation under state military control. It’s really a fight between oligarch factions coming suspiciously at the point when Russia was winning. The complaints from Prigozhin about Wagner being attacked by the MOD are not really credible as no-one has been convinced by the video so far. I still think Russia will win and that Prigozhin will shortly be history.
Hi Kaiama, That’s my reading of the issue also. There seem to be several volunteer outfits helping the Russian army and understandably need to be brought under the control of the MOD, the only one outstanding was Wagner, who seem to like their independence, if you can call it that.
Normally, asking “who gains” can throw up a few plausible suggestions, I’m stumped on that score.
If this is a ‘rue de guerre’ to entice the Ukrainians to commit because they see an opportunity, then it is probably a psyop.
Short of that, it’s probably about money, or Brexit…_
The way out of this that would result in the least bloodshed would be for the US/Europe to offer Putin a “Shah of Iran” lifeline. Putin can live in California for the rest of his life, must refrain from politics and will be given immunity from prosecution by the ICC. It won’t please Ukraine or others seeking justice but it will save a lot of lives. There is no way out for Wagner at this point other than to fight to the end, so the least bloody solution is if Putin leaves – at the moment there are few places where he can go into exile. China could also make a similar offer.
Prigozihn’s “beef” is with Shoigu and Gerasimov – not Putin.
Not any more, … Putin could perhaps have ended this last night by offering up Shoigu/Gerasimov. However, instead of that he has given orders to squash the mutiny. At this point it is Putin/Gerasimov/Shoigu (3 people) or Wagner (+25,000). A simple cost calculation says the cleanest solution is to remove 3-5 people (dead or alive)
Putin is supported by 80% plus of Joe Public in Russia. On the Prigozhin situation, I’d guess around 95%+ . Just seeing people in the street mouthing off at Wagner soldiers in Rostov-na-Donu… Putin will never go to anywhere – the Russian public would not allow it. At the moment, so many people are volunteering for the military, he doesn’t even need to do another mobilisation, unlike Kiev who are under round xxx right now and are having to go out and press gang men to meet their targets. I can’t help feeling that having suggested this, you really don’t know the Russians well enough to realise its a non starter. Things have gone so far now that Russia will have to win, even if Europe and the US gets destroyed in the process.
Andrew H
Putin is backed by around 75-85% of the population according to all polls past years and no russian support chaos, disintegration of Russia.
Best solution is of course diplomacy, simply that the Russian military call up Wagner and then sit down and solve this issue peacefully.
I doubt if Nato want this war to end. Too many people making too much money out of it. All sorts of corrupt whatnots in Ukraine doubtless think of Milo Minderbinder as their rôle model.
The fact that young working class men are being fed to the meatgrinder from Ukraine and Russia won’t bother the military industrial complex in the US or in Russia. (Dafür sind Sie da – as Bruno Ganz says in Downfall)
“Putin can live in California for the rest of his life” – priceless!
Craig concludes… “But we should all hope that, rather than unleash more chaos across Eastern Europe, this development brings negotiations and an end to the conflict in Ukraine”
My best argument to date, for the way forward, was an immediate ceasefire with a side order of peace negotiations. But with the evidence mounting, that Kyiev has always participated in bad faith negotiations, how can Russia be persuaded to enter such talks, or have faith in a ceasefire.
I have low expectations of this war being over by any christmas soon. Let’s hope some wise heads can be found who will persuade the current ‘rules based world order’ that the fat lady is singing her head off…_
And look who is heading the Guardian’s analysis:
“Even if Wagner rebellion fails, Putin’s presidency has never looked weaker”
Luke Harding
“Images of tanks in streets of Moscow evoke memories of a faltering Soviet Union’s final months in 1991”
Basically a rip off ((Tendar))’s analysis: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672381532642889729
“At this point it is absolutely irrelevant if Prigozhin’s coup will succeed or not. Literally everybody in Russia and outside will know after this night that the war in Ukraine is lost. The morale of the Russian army, which was already low, will hit rock bottom and the mood in Russia altogether will be Armageddon-like. ”
“What started as an attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government and annex all of Ukraine has eventually backfired on a monumental scale. The last chapter of this Russian-made tragedy has opened and I doubt that it will be a long chapter.”
Many of the other comments by ((Tendar)) are also spot on.
Sigh, another nonsense comment by Andrew
Russia made clear in the first days of the war that they did not seek to overthrow or annex all of Ukraine.
Stop reading western liberal fantasies.
Putin stated that Ukraine does not exist as a sovereign state, that the entire country is part of Russia. How is he going to achieve his stated goals of ‘de-nazifying’, ‘de-militarising’ and eliminating Ukraine as an ‘existential threat’ to Russia without annexing the entire country?
If he was looking for something to de-nazify he’d have been better off starting with the Wagner Group.
Pears Morgaine
Nope he did not,
Russia not seeking regime change in Ukraine, people should have freedom of choice — Lavrov
https://tass.com/politics/1439823
“At the same time, our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force” – Putin february 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-text-putin-s-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine/
Thus, Russia have not targeted the actual regime one single time, not one leader of ukrainian government/high rank military leader have been killed.
Compare Russia’s invasion with US/UK invasion of Iraq and how they targeted iraqi leaders from the getgo.
You can read Putins words yourself here:-
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians
Where he describes Ukraine as having been created by the Soviets.
If Russia hasn’t killed any of Ukraine’s leaders it wasn’t for want of trying.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-zelensky-russia-backed-assassination-attempts-report-2022-3?r=US&IR=T
Pears
Nope, nowhere in the Wiki link did Putin deny the right of Ukraine as a state.
Nope, Russia have not killed one single leader of ukraine military or political force simply because that is not their objective as set out in Putin’s speech in february 2022.
Just because you make up conspiray theories that Russia want to occupy the whole of Ukraine and seek to kill everyone does not make something true.
Not a conspiracy theory. The only way Putin could’ve achieved his stated objectives. The idea that the objective was only to ‘liberate’ the Donbas regions has only come about after the failure to capture the whole country, from Russia’s point of view these regions would never be secure if the rest of Ukraine remained independent and aligned with the west.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022
The Wagner group have shown themselves to be the most effective troops Russia has in Ukraine and however this coup goes losing them is going to be a significant loss, just not materially but in terms of morale. They are already reported to be half way to Moscow and no sign of the Russian air force intervening to stop them. Wagner may not have any combat aircraft of their own but they are equipped with the latest Russian ground to air missiles which we’ve been repeatedly told are infallible and unstoppable. Perhaps the idea of Russian killing Russian on Russian soil is too much for even Putin to contemplate.
Yes Russia might turn its regular forces around to quickly eliminate Wagner, giving Ukraine an unmissable opportunity, or those troops fed up with being away from home and dying in a war which their leaders are saying could drag on for years and might be un-winnable, might see a way out by joining the coup. Who knows. Either way its piling on the humiliation.
Apparently Wagner have moved one step closer to Moscow region, now being in Lipsky region.
How is it possible that they can roam freely like this? If an armed rebellion were initiated in the west it would be taken care of asap and quelled, are russian intelligence sleeping 24/7? Demoralization among authorities seems to be complete.
Multiple aircraft, helicopter shot down by Wagner.
https://t.me/intelslava/49331
Will we see clashes like in the 93′ coup attempt? When Yeltin shot with tanks against the government building
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Russian_constitutional_crisis
Terrible development.
Kurtz got a call from high up saying “turn around or we kill you and your family”. Sobered him up very quickly and he’s gone home. Too late to save him I fear.
My Russian friend – while being even more cautious than usual about using social media to make commentary – just told me she believes that “the situation is resolved”, and they are breathing a little easier now.
Situation solved?? Or a hoax quote?
“We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of blood, now there is the possibility of blood being shed, understanding this responsibility we will turn around our convoys and return to our bases”
https://t.me/intelslava/49337
Wagner agrees to end ‘insurrection’ – Lukashenko
Evgeny Prigozhin agreed to halt his march on Moscow and avert “a bloodbath,” the Belarusian president said
https://swentr.site/russia/578632-wagner-agrees-to-end-insurrection/
Hopefully true, just imagine the sour grapes in the west now, spend all day on tv telling smiling how this was the end of Putin…wrong (hopefully) as usual.
Now that it was announced that Prigozhin is turning his troops back, while they’re still at Voronezh, I think I can offer my humble opinion as well.
What would you say is the best way to move 25,000 troops from Rostov-on-Don to Belgorod, on the Ukraine border to Charkiv, from the main road via Voronezh, in one day, without raising suspicion that you might attack Charkiv from Belgorod? Why, make people believe that you are on your way to Moscow, as the road very conveniently takes you through Voronezh too.
The next couple of days will show where Wagner mercenaries will appear next, and if my suspicion has any validity. But the whole thing looks (now that it looks like it was resolved) like it was orchestrated by the two men.
Perhaps, just another complicated Wagnerian opera.
What a beautiful day-off to wake up into! Enjoyed memes all day through…
The meme of the day:
Prigozhin could have got detained and put into prison, just to be recruited to Wagner group again.
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On a serious note, I’m happy they involved some diplomacy, I don’t want a Maidan in Russia. I’m f*king tired of all these f*king events.
Enjoyed the joke, but Prigozhin was no stranger to a prison cell in his earlier incarnation as an armed robber.
Looking on the positive side, had he have been sent to prison the authorities would not have had to shave his head. 🙂
Wagner may have stopped or turned around but what happens next? They can hardly just return to their barracks and pretend nothing happened. At the very least they’ll have to disband or desert en-masse and what would Prigozhin do? Go back to his hot-dog stall? Defect to Ukraine? Go into exile? Throw himself on Putin’s tender mercy (good luck with that)?
Pears do not be sour grapes now, a deal was made:
A deal was made Perry
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Saturday that he had arranged a deal whereby Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for “security guarantees” for his fighters.
https://swentr.site/russia/578632-wagner-agrees-to-end-insurrection/
Comment from Sergej Sumlenny makes more sense: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1672661900482453508
“It is not possible to attack Putin, to march almost up to Moscow, and to say “oh, I changed my mind”. Prigozhin knows it well. Interesting times are coming.”
This supposed ‘deal’ isn’t worth anything from either side. Putin is the guy that said he wouldn’t invade Ukraine just days before he did (and I am pretty sure you were one of those repeating this lie). So Prigozhin is now going to take him at his word? I’m inclined to wait a little longer.
Andrew, some couple of days ago you said there are no nazis in Ukraine. I doubt that you might have missed all the evidence for the opposite.
So, if someone here is repeating lies, certainly it’s not Jack, nor anyone else who sincerely believed then, that unthinkable is unthinkable.
& yet only days ago in our previous discussion I was pointing out that Wagner was about to do a coup. Why no one made an attempt to reduce tensions at that point is beyond me – instead of letting the pot explode (this has been public knowledge for a while). I’ve seen far more evidence of Nazis in Russia. (You should also take a few minutes to listen to Prigozhin’s recent releases regarding nazis in Ukraine). I guess you are no longer on Wagner’s side….. that is at least some progress.
That was Walkure II that was.
Well the fighters can claim Prigozhin lied to them about what he was doing, but the man himself is likely screwed.
The Kremlin has no incentive to hold to any agreement with a traitor, under the coercive implication that he was willing to resort to terrorism.
Also in your post above you said Prigozhin was making valid points, that is utterly untrue he was blurting lies & exaggerations out his arse. Persuant to his personal grievances and ulterior motives.
The man is also far from mentally stable or of sound judgement if he thought this stunt would work to his benefit. Just a point to ponder…
Well it’ll be interesting to see if the ‘security guarantees’ offered to Prigozhin and his men are worth any more than the security guarantees promised to Ukraine in 1991.