Well, 24 hours later I feel no closer to understanding what just happened.
I do not buy the idea it was all a clever charade designed by Putin. The damage it has caused to his image of great strength, and to the notion of the state monopoly of violence within Russia, is greater damage than can be counterbalanced by any alleged tactical change inside Ukraine.
I don’t see that change anyway, and frankly Russia did not need any such drama. Ukraine’s much trumpeted counter-offensive appears a damp squib.
If looking for something below the surface, the idea that Prigozhin had been turned by some kind of offer from the West seems more probable, but is hard to square with his sudden capitulation.
However the surface story of what just happened is equally implausible.
Wagner seem to have suffered no major reverse and encountered no serious military opposition before they turned round and gave back all they have taken. For which Prigozhin has on the face of it received nothing in turn but a rather fragile life as a guest of Lukashenko.
While Putin appears to have allowed an actual military revolt that killed at least a few Russian soldiers and airmen to take place, with no punishment. That seems to me very contrary to Putin’s nature.
These are my thoughts. But I am struggling enormously to understand this. As are the ordinary Russian public, for whom the whole incident has been surreal.
One useful thing: the troll armies, on all sides, are quiet. When something as unexpected as this happens, they can’t just blabber on, they need marching orders on how to spin it, and those take some time to arrive.
There is only one explanation for what happened. Especially considering the kayfabe the last few months. To find out you will have to hold your nose and walk amongst the supposed tinfoil-hatter Qanonaloon conspiracy theorists because it looks like they are right.
IMO, this was politics being enacted by someone who believed they were more ‘powerful ‘ than the reality of their position. Putin did the right thing by not panicking and overreacting in a violent manner – which would have been counterproductive for him and Russia. Prigozhin is finished. He has f*cked up big time and will never be trusted again. The future of Wagner is in doubt and will probably be absorbed or disbanded by the state. Putin will need to act decisively to counteract any other potential threats within. Will be interesting to see where this goes !
I do not think the situation is that complicated to decipher: Wagner simply made the bulk of the advances in the war for Russia but have received no real support throughout the war from the russian military/gov which in turn caused Wagner to openly criticize, with full merit imo, the strategy used by Russia/military.
Then some days back Russian government seems to have called upon Wagner to disband while Prizoghin wanted better salaray. Talks went nowhere and the russian military(?) ended up bombing Wagner military site with troops.
Wagner responded by waging this short war against the military/government. That they could get so close to Moscow without being stopped seems to be another case of russian unpreparedness which have been symptomatic for Russia since the invasion.
I believe this video sums it up, he have a great point…
” Wagner boss Prigozhin slams Russian officials from a field of corpses “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-bALDPCp4w
“Russian private army Wagner Group has lost 20,000 troops in battle for Bakhmut, says leader”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-private-army-wagner-group-134910444.html
Of course it was reckless for Wagner to stage this mutiny but for Russia, it would have been best to sit down and talk this through and solve every issue between Wagner/Russian military. Instead their irrational stubbornness made them send Prizoghin into exile and dissolved Wagner, the best force that fought for Russia.
Also most likely ukrainian/western forces will target him in Belarus, or even russian forces..
Why target him? He will tie down some of the Russian forces in Belarus that could otherwise be used to fight in Ukraine rather than watch over the former Wagner mercenaries.
Why would he tie down russian forces in Belarus? It is not like he is going to have any power over anything regarding the war being kicked out into exile like this.
Jack.
Wagner is supposedly only 25,000 strong. So, if they lost 20,000 (in a single battle) then they would effectively be finished, wouldn’t they ?
“and the russian military(?) ended up bombing Wagner military site with troops.” According to Prigozhin they lost no troops during this exercise !!
The ex catering exec who runs Wagner cannot be given too much credence.
Stevie Boy
50k+ troops in december 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group
Not sure if Wagner lost any troops during the skirmishes yesterday?
Russia lost 15 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion
No, No, No. With respect, you cannot quote Wikipedia as a source when it comes to politics. You might as well quote The Guardian, BBC or NYT, they are all purveyors of BS.
There are plenty of images of airplanes, helicopters going down being shot down by Wagner.
> and dissolved Wagner
Wagner is not dissolved. It continues to operate in the Middle East and many parts of Africa, promoting Russia’s interests. The force that was in Ukraine is exhausted; my guess is that many of them will simply go home.
Jimmeh
Not exhausted but dissolved (as far as Ukraine is concerned) but seems weird if the pro-russian Wagner would still be allowed if their “leader” sent to exile away from Russia.
That yahoo.com reporter can’t even use a calculator. 20% of 50,000 is not 20,000
Is your research compiled from the Wagner PR department? Because none of what you posted is true as far as their actual contributions or grievances go…
The LNDR militias have done far more grunt work.
Urban Fox
What is not true?
1) That Wagner made the bulk of Russian advances.
2) That they didn’t get support from the Russian MOD which provided their *entire* logistics-chain, air, artillery & medical support.
3) The casualty numbers which changed radically according to narrative.
4) The so called “bombing” of Wagner camps.
5) Wagner being the best force that fought for Russia, a completely subjective statement.
6) Russia being “unprepared”, it looks if anything they let a turblent oligarch publicly hang himself. Something Putin has form for.
7) Another post but I’ll add it. those shot down aircraft. Playing silly buggers with recycled/made up pics is a feature of this war. There’s maybe one credible video of an attack chopper getting fired at by jumpy Wagner guys but that’s about it. So that issue remains murky.
8) Prigozhin being a loss rather than liability to Russia at this point. The man is clearly an unstable egotist who thought he was untouchable. If the Kremlin should be criticized it’s for not handling him months ago & in a quieter manner.
Urban Fox
1. That is not a lie, every major offensive have been made by Wagner.
2. They did not get support, you are free to google from the getgo of the invasion how the conflict between Prizoghin against Shoigu have grown. Remember they even threatened to leave areas they had taken some monhts back beacause they got no help.
3. What narrative have changed? Link! Fact is that many thousands russians have died of course a great part of those are those that have been most aggresive on the frontlines: Wagner. Why would they do that if they allegedly got all help they needed?
4. I put that claim followed by a “?”, they might have or might not we do not know for sure.
Considering Russian government was about to disband the PMC and was in conflict with their leader, it is not far fetched to believe Russian army struck the building.
5. Nope, going back to #1 above, there is no other force that made the most in this war for the russian side. Russian army have been absent.
6. Of course they are unprepared for this war, if Ukraine even can send a exploding drone over Kreml there are obvious no preparation to talk of. Even the US intelligence knew something was about to happen but the russian government missed it as usual.
7. I do not know if there were 1-8 airplanes/helicopters/ struck down but multiple people were killed on the russian side.
8. Yes he was a hothead for sure but speaking the truth about his criticism against the russian military. Of course there will be a loss on the battlefield with Wagner’s departure. Going back to #5 query.
“1. That is not a lie, every major offensive have been made by Wagner.”
The initial Russian advances were not made by Wagner.
I agree that the whole episode doesn’t make much sense on the face of it, and thought at first that it might only be explained by a less than complete set of working faculties on the part of Prigozhin.
“While Putin appears to have allowed an actual military revolt that killed at least a few Russian soldiers and airmen to take place, with no punishment. That seems to me very contrary to Putin’s nature.”
On the other hand, the idea of ordering the Russian military to fire upon Russians, on Russian soil, would presumably have been a point of no return, politically speaking. Prigozhin didn’t have any realistic chance of taking Moscow. So maybe it was a huge game of chicken – or perhaps a more appropriate comparison would be a hostage situation, with the advancing Wagner troops paradoxically serving as the ‘hostages’. In the end, Prigozhin blinked first, although he seems to have escaped the ultimate consequences – for now at least.
The whole episode is embarrassing for Russia, and presumably will have an impact on morale. If you apply ‘cui bono’ then it suggests some Western involvement was possible, but then how could they have convinced Prigozhin to go out on such an extreme limb? Furthermore, none of the apocalyptic scenarios that the West were clearly hoping for have emerged and the material position of the war has little changed, which puts a bit of egg on their faces too. So just who was wagging the dog here?
“Prigozhin has on the face of it received nothing in turn but a rather fragile life as a guest of Lukashenko”
He has been granted his life and the lives of his family for the time being. It was a foolish move by the former hotdog vendor.
..for the time being… Putin’s opponents have an odd habit of coming to sticky ends.
It’s said that ruthlessness is something he adopted in his earliest days as president on the advice of .. Bill Clinton. (Putin though has never crossed the line to also disappearing close friends, ala Jeff Epstein.)
Craig, you’ve swallowed the propaganda that Putin is an authoritarian figure who can only stay in power by showing how all-powerful he is. The opposite is the case. He is very cautious and only takes action against his enemies when he feels he has no other choice. Even then, even though he acts decisively, he uses as little force as necessary.
From what I understand, the biggest criticism of him in Russia is that he did not wage total war against Ukraine and destroy Kiev and get the war over with quickly. Still, the vast majority of Russians seem to be satisfied that he is slowly but surely getting the job done by grinding down the Ukrainian forces without creating huge risks to Russia.
In the case of Prigozhin, Putin could have quickly destroyed him and a large number of Wagner soldiers. The army is completely loyal to him, especially against a gang of mercenaries. Prigozhin knew that and pushed Putin as far as he could. His calculation appears to have been correct.
Putin has made good use of Wagner, especially in Bakhmut, and then got rid of its leader who was too much of a loose cannon. While I can’t look into the mind of ordinary Russians, I think his image will actually be improved by controlling these unruly forces without causing any instability.
And Lukashenko has shown his diplomatic skills by negotiating a peaceful settlement. The only potential problem is that Prigozhin might cause problems in Belarus.
Prigozhin – although he could not stop Wagner from being controlled by the Russian MoD – was able to show strong he was by putting up a fight against very powerful forces, and surviving.
So all sides have reason to be satisfied with the outcome although it is not ideal for any of them.
I agree almost100% with what you wrote. For some time Wagner have been pressured into unifying their military structure into the main Russian military. The carrot – benefits for Wagner soldiers like the main military have, the downside was that meant everyone signing contracts with the MOD and reporting to/following orders from the MOD leaving Prigozhin high and dry. In desperation he lashed out. It was very clear that the move did not have support amongst the public who support Putin to the tune of 80%+ Many Russian expats speculated that he had taken money from the US to cause trouble and embarrassment. Rather than Putin delivering the news to Prigozhin and having an argument (Progozhin cannot be trusted to keep silent about that conversation), Lukashenko laid it on the table and gave Prigozhin a way to escape retribution – take it or leave it and get prosecuted and convicted. It was never clear from video evidence how many troops had actually supported him and were on the move. Neither was it clear how many people had died as a result of clashes. Signing on with the MOD has been restricted to those who did not support the insurrection but how many will actually sign the contracts?
> the downside was that meant everyone signing contracts with the MOD and reporting to/following orders from the MOD
…or worse; the MoD has attempted to subordinate Wagner units to Donbas independence fighters, who treated them as cannon fodder (Prig has been uncomplimentary about those forces too).
Which shows how full of s**t Prigozhin is, those guys were the poor bloody infantry of the early war, and have far more reason to be surly with the Kremlin for waiting so long to intervene with conventional forces.
Also their commanders aren’t ex-jailbird oligarchs with no combat experience, so they probably told Prig to get stuffed every time he opined on military matters.
I agree wholeheartedly. Especially to your assessment of Putin.
For the West, it is another propaganda battle won, but not the military progress hoped for. In the light of current events, some ominous announcements by exponents of the Ukrainian government take on a different meaning.
The probability of a Western involvement is high. Another red line, attempted regime change, has been crossed. And once again Putin has not allowed himself to be provoked. The West is running out of indirect means. In the medium term, there will probably be the direct war involvement of Poland, perhaps the Baltic states, predicted by Rasmussen. Then it will become really dangerous.
”While I can’t look into the mind of ordinary Russians, I think his image will actually be improved by controlling these unruly forces without causing any instability.”
As someone resident in Moscow, I think you are correct. In the western wet dream scenario of Russian troops allowing Prigozhin’s Wagnerists free passage towards Moscow, then I believe the citizenry would have occupied the city streets en masse and denied them entry. A bit like the Kapp putsch of 1920.
it could be that Prigozhin is/was angry at the way Putin was slowly winning the offensive against Ukraine, maybe he wanted Putin to push harder to win sooner and this was some kind of demo against that, some reports say that Prigozhin has gone to Africa to join a Wagner Group there, other reports such as this one say something different.
“MOSCOW, June 24 – RIA Novosti. The criminal case against the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will be dismissed, said Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
“The criminal case will be dismissed and he himself will go to Belarus. If you ask what kind of guarantee that Prigozhin will be able to leave is the word of the President of Russia,” he said.
At the same time, the official did not specify what exactly the head of the group would do in the former Soviet republic.”
My first thought on hearing of Comrade Prigozhin’s relocation to Belarus was that I hope he has a good head for heights. A goodly number of formerly powerful people who have upset Comrade Putin appear to have suffered from extreme vertigo in the recent past.
Go on then, name a few.
https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-russians-fall-windows-putin-ukraine-war-1781790
Not many, at least one irrelevant, and a poor propagandist source to cite.
This sort of thing happens even in the West, it’s just that Newsweek doesn’t tell you about them.
SecDef James Forrestal?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1999/05/23/the-fall-of-james-forrestal/60c653b3-c537-462f-b523-5fdc5cd934aa/
Asking what just happened in Russia also needs to address the real question… what’s happening in Ukraine.
The “phoney war” in 1939 had participants sitting in positions going nowhere fast, now we have Ukraine Armed Forces with a Spring Offensive not started, midsummer having been and gone.
We also have lots of pictures without a plausible story.
These links should give you more than enough food for thought. As far as I am concerned it is still a game of charades that doesn’t reveal if it is anything with a clear plot line…_
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/06/russia-and-the-wagner-coup/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12230429/PETER-HITCHENS-seen-putsch-Moscow-1991.html
https://sonar21.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZZZmIvnX30
I think what had been going on in Russia is a mystery to all of us. Prigozin seems to have been allowed a lot of rope by Putin which leads one to assume there has been a good relationship between them. From what I read from Russian-American sources like Andrew Martyanov the last few days was all about money. The MoD wanted to bring the Wagner troops “on the books”, probably for reasons you and others mentioned yesterday Craig. All were due to sign new contracts by yesterday. Prigozin didn’t like the deal and mutinied with a very small fraction of the Wagner force following him possibly being misled about his real aims whatever they were. Apparently there is no solid evidence of Russian deaths from Wagner activity, it may all be social media milarkey until proven otherwise. We are just going to have to wait and see. There might be some truth in the idea that some big western move has been nipped in the bud but anyone who really knows is not talking about it, yet!
Yes. Many of the pictures of Wagnerites in Rostov seemed to show funny hats and cocking a snook. But there is no indication that the vast bulk of the Wagner mob were on board with what seems a rather theatrical venture ? Certainly one could suspect that the lure of having ones societal misdeeds expunged vs the far from certain outcome of following Mr Prigozin, meant that the numbers involved in this escapade were far from being huge.
All this would be based upon the idea that the Wagner Group offered rewards to the either criminal or financially hampered blokes as an aid to recruitment. But then, do we know the composition of the group with any certainty ? Certainly Prigozin has seemingly grossly overestimated his position, which is very odd indeed.
Another issue re bringing the Wagner troops “on the books” seems to be that it is illegal to have private military companies operating in the Russian Federation. Up to now, Moscow has seemed to have finessed this but more and more as the newly acquired oblasts get integrated into Russian law and administration. , having them work in Kherson and the former Donbass Republics, and so on, looks dicier.
Come to think of it, moving Wagner units into Belograd Oblast is technically illegal.
The French Foreign Legion as founded was forbidden, presumably by law, from being employed within Metropolitan France, unless that country was subject to foreign invasion. I would have thought that when drawing up their statutes the Russians would have made recourse to the example of other nations operating groups that may be described as being on the fringe of ‘National’ armed forces. Given that the Wagner Group is under the control of, and dependant on, Russian state bodies I wonder if the term ‘Private’ is being used more for its deprecating message rather than accuracy ?
However, and again using the French example, their Legion operates, or exists within Metropolitan France these days, and certainly it would be the case with Belgorod that the territory of Russia had been invaded. So even under the older rules governing the FFL it would have been legal to employ them there ?
There is some talk that as a result of yesterdays entertainment, Wagner or at least some part of it is being sent to the Polish/Byelorussian frontier. It’ll be interesting to watch the Polish reaction should that be the case.
“Another issue re bringing the Wagner troops “on the books” seems to be that it is illegal to have private military companies operating in the Russian Federation.”
It is one reason why Wagner is moving to Belarus, if it is indeed the whole lot who are moving, and not just Prigozhin himself (there’s some doubt about who is on the move – the Wagner force or Prigozhin going into exile alone). It would permit Wagner to act legally.
I reckon there was a “big” Western move in place along the river near Kherson with billions worth of fancy equipment. Then the Russians blew the brimful dam. If it had gone ahead, would it have got anywhere? It’s academic now but Russian forces would have suffered significant casualties. What we’ve seen since were what had been planned as diversions.
Perhaps this was just a way for Wagner to desert from the Ukrainian meat-grinder while saving face. It’s been widely reported (the usual warnings about fog of war and propaganda apply) the Russians would send Wagner’s convict “volunteers” individually out to be slaughtered in Bakhmut to reveal Ukrainian positions that would later be subjected to artillery barrage. Perhaps Prigozhin got fed up of his men being used as literal cannon fodder by the Army brass.
For me the curious thing is that every step of it was reported in Russian media on a real time basis to the Russian population
BUT western media never once mentioned this because it would contradict everything they have ever said about Russia.
Meanwhile ask an American what their media said about Russiagate or Biden’s laptop.
Yes. This is significant.
An armed demonstration over pay and conditions?
It’s no coincidence that a new contract and command structure for the Wagner PMC had to be signed by the 1st of July.
And yes this idea of Putin as absolute autocrat and dictator is nonsense – he is cautious (by necessity) and constantly has to balance between various power centres. In many ways he is a moderate – for instance Medvedev would have been rolling across the Steppes “Bagration” style by now – probably to disaster!
«Putin as absolute autocrat and dictator is nonsense – he is cautious (by necessity)»
There is a good portrait of the early Putin here:
https://consortiumnews.com/2018/02/06/understanding-russia-un-demonizing-putin/
which among several interesting things says:
«My next question was: “What do you think he will do with Yeltsin’s criminals in the Kremlin?” Putting on her psychologist hat, she contemplated the question and replied that if left to his normal behaviors, Putin would watch them for a while to be sure what was going on, then he would likely throw up some flares to let them know that he was watching. If they didn’t respond, he would address them personally, and if the behaviors still didn’t change, some would probably spend time in prison.»
That’s I guess still ongoing.
«and constantly has to balance between various power centres»
Indeed, and this relates to one of the most common stupidities I see in press and online commentaries, the absence of the concept of “power base”: office does not automatically confer power, power largely comes from the power base (e.g. money, clientes, guns, supporters, …) that political agents or actors have, and can lead to power (office can lead to power, over time, but more rarely). For a sharp example of this there is the defining moment of _elensky’s “presidency” when he confronted the nazi militants at the frontline in the Donbas saying that he was not a loser, and they had to stand down, and it was him who had to (because they were ready to kill and die for the racial purity of Greater Ruthenia, nd nobody would fight and die for _elensky).
A good example of why Ancient History was a far better grounding for those seeking a government (or media) career than the currently popular PPE ?
There are some important details that most commentators miss:
* The Wagner is the russian equivalent of the Gurkha Regiment or the Foreign Legion, or perhaps of the many front companies setup by the CIA like “Civil Air Transport”/”Air America”. It is a state organized and funded military, setup by the RF general staff (probably the GRU) because the RF laws forbid conscripts from being deployed outside the national borders, but volunteers can do that; “Prigo” is a frontman, probably supervising is on behalf of Putin. Wagner have access to all the RF military weapons and logistics like no purely private mercenaries could.
* There are three main actors involved: the General Staff, that is the “military” generals, the MOD, that is the civilian administrative side of the military, the “parquet” generals, and the FSB, the civilian security service, plus of course the RF president who has to deal with all three.
* This episode is very similar to a couple of famous moments in russian history, and that may have been entirely deliberate.
Could we assume that part of the reason for the existence of the Wagner Group is that it offers a route for the recruitment of the types that established militaries get rather snooty about admitting ?
Its a concept not unknown in the UK, although very historic now, an opportunity to go for a soger in say the East India Company where the risks of enrichment or departure from the planet may have been equal.
Until Ukraine, most Wagner troops seem to have been former Russian Special Forces looking for better pay and less bureaucracy, not out-and-out criminals on the run from their home authorities like the South Africans who worked for Blackwater, now whatever code name of the day they operate under. I would assume the Wagners deployed overseas still are, and will be incorporated in a new deniable Private Military Company run by new people Putin can trust.
True or not true.
“US intelligence agencies strongly suspected that Evgeny Prigozhin was planning a major move against the Russian government, days before the Wagner chief ordered his troops to march on Moscow, The New York Times reported on Saturday, citing sources.
According to unnamed US officials interviewed by the paper, the administration of US President Joe Biden and military commanders were briefed on the Wagner preparations as early as Wednesday. As additional details came in, another briefing attended by a narrow group of congressional leaders was reportedly”
True or Not.
“The New York Times reported …”
“US intelligence agencies strongly suspected … days before … ”
“According to unnamed US officials …”
Hmmm. Where has this sort of evidence chain occurred before ?
[MOD: Caught in spam-filter]
___
I have no inside knowledge and am just guessing. However, these are my guesses. Prigozhin was dissatisfied with Russian military leadership for a number of reasons and the demand that he put his soldiers under their direct command was the last straw. He then was approached by other people who offered him money. It must have been a substantial sum so these people must have been extremely rich.
These people might have included western powers. However, I am not entirely convinced that the western governments are mad enough to want the nuclear codes to fall into the hands of a man like Prigozhin. Other alternatives might be the Ukrainian government. For them, it might have been the last throw of the dice after their offensive does not appear to be as successful as they hoped. They could be desperate enough to risk Prigozhin.
There are also a great many Russian billionaires based in Western Europe and America. A group of them might be of the belief that they could put up a government to replace Putin and then be able to control this Prigozhin from within that government. I have long been of the opinion that western-Russian relations over the last few years can best be explained by the existence of some sort of government in exile which is rich and powerful enough to influence the western powers. This might explain why Britain is so anti Putin, since London is the base of so many of these oligarchs.
They might have assumed that once Wagner started to march on Moscow, the whole front would collapse due to desertion and regiments being pulled back to fight Wagner. The Ukrainians would pour in. Putin would be further discredited. Russians in general would support the coup. Putin would flee or being killed. Instead, there does not seem to be much if any disturbance in the regular army. Ukrainian victories were small. However, there were reports of an attempt to assassinate Prigozhin by some of his own troops.
It is true that there does not seem to be much fighting. However, Prigozhin surely saw the writing on the wall. By accepting the deal he kept his life (for now), his army and any money that he got up front. He may even have been offered further sums by the Russian government.
I don’t dispute that Putin will try to kill Prigozhin in the future. He can’t let the revolt go unpunished in the long term. In the short term, though, both sides live to fight another day, and Putin gets to stay as President and much the same chance as before of bring the Ukrainian war to a limited success.
Rather than thinking the surface story is implausible I think this is a case of it is as it is, a culmination of Prighozhin’s accumulating grievances with his Russian Defence Ministry employers, creating an industrial dispute on a grand and probably unprecedented scale and deluding himself that he could get his own way from his position of entrepreneurial power.
Don Quixote tilting at windmill comes to mind. Prighozhin although he appears in uniform a lot of the time has no role in the Wagner command structure and did not have their support in gathering his rag tag and bobtail contingent to carry out his reckless adventure. His latest actions are those of someone suffering a serious mental disorder, probably caused by the stress and trauma of recent events.
Do we ever know what is really going on inside Russia?
Do ordinary Russians ever know what is going on outside Russia?
This might simply be a cynical attempt to see how far certain powerful people can control the sycophantic Western MSM agenda. A strategy which might be very useful if the sh!t really does hit the fan.
Your old mate John Sweeney totally understood what was going on. He pronounced it, confidently and unequivocally, “Putin’s Ceausescu moment.”
Ceausescu hade no support in the end so where is the similarity?
“Putin’s approval rating ends 2022 at 81%, boosted by support for the war in Ukraine ”
https://www.intellinews.com/putin-s-approval-rating-ends-2022-at-81-boosted-by-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-265628/
I assume the recent chaos will only strengthen him even more.
> I assume the recent chaos will only strengthen him even more.
On the contrary; Putin’s prestige has been damaged – the best force he could put up to obstruct Prig’s march on Moscow was the Moscow National Guard. Letting Prig off makes him look weak, as does the fact that Prig got so close to Moscow, and forced the MoD to start digging trenches across roads and setting up sandbags and machine-gun positions on the outskits of Moscow.
Putin is weakened.
Jimmeh
I believe that is the western narrative but I bet the russian population rather see this as the Russian government that stopped a most likely civil war from breaking out: prolonged chaos is not something any russian would support.
At the same time the issue that Prizoghin had was not so much with Putin but rather the russian MoD as far as I understand it.
He has attacked Shoigu and Gerasimov many times, rightfully too imo. Way too many russians die for this war:
” Wagner founder Prigozhin: “Russian elite, send your children to war”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=809OTmUULnE
100%!
West expected brutal monster dictator to kill 5000 Russian fighters ( we told you so). Instead he deflated the balloon
Weeknes again..
“On the contrary; Putin’s prestige has been damaged”
Not much evidence of that, but you can be sure his prestige, or his popularity would have suffered greatly if he had taken the alternative course and have Russians fire on Russians in Russia.
I have heard no suggestion that Prigozhin has relinquished control of Wagner. With that in mind, he is now only 100km from Kiev – closer than yesterday’s ‘approach’ to Moscow…
“If” Scott Ritter is correct, this could be pretty ominous for the UK.
Ritter describes Ukrainian cells around Moscow planning explosions etc, which “might” have been co-ordinated with a wider coup to discredit and remove Putin and collapse the Russian government, and he speculates about British involvement. (The cells were intercepted by Russian Security Services, and unsuccessful).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE2IqsAO-2M
I think Prigozhin has misread the situation, pretty badly. He’s misread Putin’s popularity, but I think he’s also misread the will of Wagner soldiery to rebel against Mother Russia. I think Russia’s speedy response and no-holds barred commitment has focussed their minds very effectively. We shouldn’t underestimate Sergey Lavrov either.
It’s apparently calming down very quickly, but surely heads are going to roll. If it emerges Prigozhin actually has been got at by the West, it won’t end well for Prigozhin, and I dunno, you kinda sense Russia will feel entitled to an act of retaliation, and suddenly we’re confronted with an escalation.
Was he lured by the West? I don’t know. Angry people do stupid things. But maybe that’s a conspiracy too far. If he was duped into it, then by now, he must surely know he was duped. Maybe that’s why it’s calming down so quickly.
For myself, I read Prigozhin as a bare-knuckle “fixer”, who will get things done. I assume he’s very good at it, but he lacks the intellect for sophisticated strategy, at which Putin I think excels. It might be a stretch to think of it as a Patton / Eisenhower situation, but there may be some crude parallels if you allow for some translation into Russian.
The big question for us in the UK is whether Russia feels it’s time to make an example of somebody, simply to check further Western interference. It’s a dangerous game to be playing.
Right now, I think Putin is trying to end this war. Stop the fighting and tie it off, and let it fizzle out. You can tell by the permanence of the Russian entrenchment and defenses, and indeed the withdrawal from Kherson, that from the outset, the Russians have envisioned the border redrawn to exactly where it now is.
Curious to note, that had the Russians not withdrawn, but stayed in Kherson, (a withdrawal which was not popular after all the fighting to take Kherson), the recent “mysterious” destruction of the Kakhovka Dam could have been strategically devastating. Somebody in the Russian Military did their homework.
After listening to Sergei Karaganov yesterday on RT, and his proposition of using tactical nuclear weapons on few well chosen European Cities, to show Europe that USA will not have their back, NATO or no NATO, I am currently quite fond of Putin’s more moderate approach and happy he prevailed at the helm.
Sergei Glazyev, Russian economist whose work on facilitating financial instruments allowing easy commerce of BRICS countries outside of dollar dominance, is on record stating that Bank of Russia is staffed by western world leaning bureaucrats that were planted there in the 90’s who seem to support western banking norms, relationships and practices at the expense of Russian economy.
Yevgeny Prigozhin has, for a long time now, levelled the same complaint about current military leadership of Russia in combination with unadulterated personal animosity towards Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov.
So there appear to be a strong seam running through entire Russian society wanting for their country to decouple from the west, stake their autonomy and achieve independence from the west much more forcefully than now – listening to Russians, and to Jeffrey Sacks for that matter, about the dreadful economic crisis and societal collapse that hit Russia in 1991-2000 clearly explains origins of that sentiment.
To me, it appears that Sergei Shoigu was brought in to completely overhaul the defence of Russia from long term military-industrial perspective, and Prigozhin wanted an immediate, preferential access to all the military equipment for his forces, and interpreted (publicly) that not getting support he wanted and needed as a sign of Shoigu and top Russian Army commanders dragging their feet in Ukraine as nothing short of treasonous negligence.
Still, I cannot comprehend how, from being successful in business and his private army, he chose this ill fated venture of marching on Moscow.
Unless he believes himself to be a tragic Cassandra like hero who truly believes that Russia’s defence forces are in such a dire straights, that he was willing to die to be taken seriously by Russian elites?
In most mutinies, death following standing for one’s beliefs, code of honour and dignity is chosen rather than death by thousand cuts, negligence, humiliation and/or cruelty of one’s military leaders and superiors.
?
And is it a coincidence that he is going to Belarus shortly after Russia moved tactical nukes there
> However the surface story of what just happened is equally implausible.
The “surface story” would be Prig’s version? I.e. The MoD wasn’t giving him enough ammo or equipment; then they decided they wanted to force his men to sign contracts with the MoD. Prig reckons Minister of Defence Shoigu and head of the army Gerasimov are incompetent, and has been feuding verbally with them for several months. The final straw came when they shelled his troops in their camp last week. Prig insisted that he wasn’t coming for Putin, but wanted to “talk to” those two.
I think that’s all fairly plausible. Prig is a huge drama queen, and has been skating on very thin ice, IMO.
What I think is implausible is how his march on Moscow ended. Putin declared Prig and his gang to be traitors, and ordered the FSB to arrest them; then within 12 hours, calls off that order, and somehow Lukashenko has mediated an agreement for Prig to escape to Belarus. Through Ukraine? Will he get a train through Russia? How was all this negotiated in just 12 hours?
It seems this “agreement” allows Shoigu and Gerasimov to try to force Wagner forces to sign MoD contracts; but they were already trying, with not much success. So I read that as a face-saving clause for the MoD. Meanwhile, I assume the FSB are pretty pissed-off with Putin for jerking them around. And I doubt the FSB ever loved Prig.
> Ukraine’s much trumpeted counter-offensive appears a damp squib.
Goodness, it’s barely begun. Ukraine has 12 battallions of freshly-trained reserves equipped with Western armour, that heven’t yet been deployed. It would have been crazy to just throw them into a frontal assault on Russia’s extensive minefields and defensive positions. Ukraine has no air cover (yet), so caution on the part of Ukrainian commanders is simply sane.
It’s conceivable that Prig’s march on Moscow was a feint, designed to trick Ukraine into launching an opportunistic all-out assault; after all, Prig is an old buddy of Putin, from the St. Petersburg days. Putin’s rapid volte-face on the “Traitor” accusations would be consistent with that.
Putin has regularly dismissed field commanders, only to reappoint them to a new command 12 months later. Wagner continues to operate all over the Middle East and Africa, so my guess is that if Prig ever turns up in Belarus (where he has troops), he won’t be there for long. But I think the Lukashenko story is a red herring.
Wellington said of Napoleon: “Never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake”. The Ukrainian generals are not fools.
Never seen that quote attributed to Wellington, it’s usually attributed to Napoleon or, less commonly, Sun Tzu.
Oh, I dunno. Popular culture: it’s in the film Waterloo, and many of the quotes in that movie are accurately attributed.
Jimmeh,
You will find your claim that “The final straw came when they shelled his (Prigozhin) troops in their camp last week” has been debunked due to lack of any credible evidence…_
You’re right. ISW says:
“Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike.[1] ISW cannot independently verify the veracity of the video, and it may have been manufactured for informational purposes. Prigozhin used the video to then justify his most explicit rhetorical escalation against the Russian MoD to date and a call for action against the Russian MoD. ”
Like any active battlefield, it’ll be months before the fog clears. These events happened yesterday, and in Russia. Who knows what’s going on? We’re all speculating.
“> Ukraine’s much trumpeted counter-offensive appears a damp squib.
Goodness, it’s barely begun. ”
Rather optimistic, aren’t you? It’s been a failure all along the line so far. That Kiev is trumpeting that it’s scarcely begun is simply covering themselves for the failure. Something like a quarter of the western wonder weapons have been destroyed, with no movement forward.
One of the reasons for the Wagner theatrical drama may indeed have been to encourage Ukraine to resume the offensive so they can smash themselves up finally on the so far untouched Russian defences.
I’d say it was an attempted coup for sure. Or at least an attempt to spark a civil war. I suspect this was a bit of a hail mary / desperation move as the war in Ukraine is not going well and the offensive seemingly failed badly. So suddenly it is this…
What was very telling were all the claims made by Prigozhin as he went rogue. He said there were no 14,000 dead civilians from shelling during the years 2014-2022 and that there were no nazis. Plus other things which are all western propaganda as well. He is finished in Russia forever that guy. Massive miscalculation on his part. He called for the national guard to join him. The guy obviously thought he was going to get support from other quarters which for whatever reason never materialized.
This is the danger of having a battle hardened 25,000 mercenary force behind your own lines that answer to a crook and not the MOD. How the fuck they ever allowed a guy like that to get into such a dangerous position I will never know. Read his wikipage, he is a classless scumbag. This was a big failure by someone at the Kremlin for sure. Putin was seriously concerned there for a while you could see it on his face.
I imagine they will be looking over their shoulders a bit now after this.
I suspect this will be seen as a major escalation. Someone in the west just attempted a coup in the country that holds the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world. Can you imagine that falling into the hands of a lowlife like Prigozhin…
When the dust settles here I think the Russians are really going to take the gloves off now in response. I think they will see this as similar in seriousness to a western backed attempt to assassinate Putin, that just missed. It is another game changer and not for the better.
> I think the Russians are really going to take the gloves off now in response.
You really think Russia isn’t already throwing everything they’ve got (short of nukes, of course) at Ukraine?
That Prig could take over Rostov, and march 300 miles from Rostov towards Moscow, without encountering anything but token resistance, shows that all Russian reserves have been deployed to the front.
Incidentally, I don’t think Russia *can* use nukes. Their troops aren’t properly equipped as it is; they can’t fight on a radioactive battlefield. I see Putin’s and Lavrov’s nuclear threats as hollow. If you are going to use your pistol, you draw and shoot; you don’t just wave it around and shout.
Jimmeh
Total mobilzation has not occurred yet and no real destruction have occurred yet. The government building in Kiev still stands as do the arms/troops infracstructure. Russia have plenty of more ways to escalate if they want. I am surprised that they are not considering the war is somehwat of stand-still match past 6 months or so..
Also most of the Wagner guys are apparently Russian patriots. Not all but most, there was even a Wagner unit made up of English speakers led by a former US Marine.
Prigozhin has been trying to stir up and foment a conflict for a while between the Wagner force and the regular Russian army forces, accusing them of starving wagner soldiers of ammo etc etc, and now we see why. But I think most of these Wagner guys are now going to realize he was deceiving them and using them and very nearly turned them into traitors. For that I think Prigozhin is going to find it difficult to continue leading them. In fact I can imagine a lot of very deadly people in Wagner and in the Russian Army are severely pissed off at him.
I’d bet ‘someone’ was telling Prigozhin a bunch of bollocks about all the support he would get. It has been a brilliant deflection away from the failed offensive for sure.
What do you mean he deceived his soldiers? There are plenty reports in the past year how russian military never really heed the calls from Wagner from the battlefield putting them in harms way.
Maybe, in this case, we have to abandon explanations of a geo-political kind in favour of good old psychology. Putin and Prigozhin are clearly both psychopathic and, as is often the case, also suffer from bipolar disorder This often results in wild mood swings and, in the case of the close relationship between these two men, could easily account for not only their lack of guilt for the suffering they cause but also the volte-face in the recent manoeuvers.
It is an affliction of leaders in Russia and China. People there and in the rest of the world are just relieved there are sober, rational leaders in Washington, London, Berlin and Brussels.
Biden, Sunak, Scholz, and Ursula fondof Lying, sober and rational. Did you forget the sarc tag there ?
> Putin and Prigozhin are clearly both psychopathic
“Psychopathic” means roughly the same as “There must be something wrong with them, because I can’t understand why they’re so bad”.
But that’s far from a clear explanation of these men; they may be old buddies, but it’ silly to dismiss them both as having some supposed untreatable psychological disorder. That doesn’t explain anything at all.
What Just Happened in Russia? My money is on this: https://sonar21.com/russias-academy-award-winning-performance-for-best-coup-prigozhin-scores-best-actor/
The idea that the whole thing was a performance, presumably including the “build-up” over the past few months seems eminently plausible. It would explain why Prigozhin never criticised Putin directly and also the lack of any action in Rostov-on-Don.
“I do not buy the idea it was all a clever charade designed by Putin. The damage it has caused to his image of great strength, and to the notion of the state monopoly of violence within Russia, is greater damage than can be counterbalanced by any alleged tactical change inside Ukraine.”
What “image of great strength” and what damage to it and who gives a hoot about “the notion of the state monopoly of violence within Russia” even if there was any? The Russians aren’t suddenly going to go on an orgy of lawlessness, simply because Putin hasn’t stamped on Prigozhin. Even if this is an unpopular move in Russia, it’s hardly going to cost him support at the next election, let alone damage his current power base.
Yes, there has been a performance. Prig is a drama queen. I’m pretty sure that the mutiny and the agreement are a show, and possibly a lot of Prig’s recent attacks on Gerasimov and Shoigu. I assume Prig is Putin’s puppet.
Putin has the advantage that many people in the UK and probably elsewhere no longer trust our journalists at all after Brexit and covid. And who would instinctively sympathise with a Ukrainian leader so openly courted by Boris Johnson and other Tories after all? No one wants a Russia so overmighty it throws its weight around nearby, but the idea of the US arming Zelenskiy is even more repugnant. The other issue that seems very suspicious is that we never get proper, balanced coverage in our media on what a cross-section of the Ukrainian people, and Russians near the border, want – which is obviously the most important consideration. It feels as if they are being used as pawns.
Mr. Murray is right saying that people in Russia are bemused, really it is so. We do speculate a lot about the events, and no plausible explanation so far.
Before this happened, I’ve bookmarked a report in our news
https://ria.ru/20230623/tseziy-1879913033.html
FSB detained people who were hired by an Ukrainian to steal Cesium 137 and transport it abroad. Investigation says the plan was to use this radioactive substance for some kind of provocation, to blame on Russia.
I must say, the question of nukes is circulating for some time already. Especially on those which Ukraine may develop or get from their patrons.
There are also talks about changing Russian doctrine for preemptive strikes, as the US currently does.
In connection with yesterday’s events (please forgive my creative imagination) I could put together some facts in a chain:
Prigozhin loudly criticised MoD for doing ‘too mild a war’ – Prigozhin publicly refused to be part of the MoD (and made sure everyone in the world now knows it) – Prigozhin is ‘invited’ in Belarus – Belarus now has nukes and rebellious Prigozhin – Belarus doesn’t own these nukes, just like some European countries do not own US’s nukes – Prigozhin doesn’t represent Russian state just like military personnel of those US’s nukes European bases do not represent the US
Am I stupid in my speculation?
Thanks very much for your contribution, Tatyana. I’d be very interested to hear more about what people in Russia think about these events, if you have the time.
Thank you, Laguerre. Looks like I’ll have much free time these days 🙂 People are not inclined to engage themselves in crafts and hobbies, when events like this take place. Honestly, I don’t feel inclined, too. Being on forums, discussing what happened, perhaps with a glass of wine, looks like a more comforting pastime.
a much, much better presentation. i recall some time ago you said you intended to write in shorter installments from then on.
and frankly, this is not a place to lecture empty-headed students, right? guys round here have some background input in most cases, or so it seems. so less water is more broth and strength. no clarity is thus more than welcome