Alba Must Fight Rutherglen 75


This is one of those unusual occasions, where a little while ago I intended to write a post advocating the precise opposite, but events have changed my mind.

After long and hard thought, I had come to the conclusion that pride had to be swallowed and personal animosity set aside. For the sake of Scottish independence we all had to reunite the movement and that could only be behind the SNP. I had a few attempts at starting an article on this.

My mind was changed by Humza Yousaf stating that, unequivocally, Independence can only be achieved through a referendum sanctioned by Westminster, and that could only be obtained if polling showed the majority for Independence to be significantly over 53%.

That is an entirely fair précis of Humza’s interview found here.

As I have consistently explained, Westminster will never consent to lose Scotland’s resources. Independence will have to be taken.

Anybody who believes that we need permission from London for Independence, by definition does not believe in Scotland’s right of self-determination.

Humza Yousaf plainly has no intention whatsoever of progressing Independence.

I therefore cannot possibly suggest the Independence movement unite behind the SNP, because the SNP is de facto a unionist party, interested only in governing within the devolution arrangement of the UK.

The concomitant of that is that any real Independence party must seek not to cooperate with the SNP, but to replace it entirely.

That is a long hard slog, but there is no genuine alternative that is real about Independence. The other option is to seek an accommodation with the SNP, but that can only ultimately aim at sharing some of the fruits of office obtainable within UK institutions. That is all the SNP want.

The SNP and Independence are clean different things.

I therefore cannot any more support Alba’s campaign for a Scotland United ticket, because that would involve asking Independence supporters to vote for SNP MPs who are in it entirely for personal career and are a block on Independence, not movers towards it.

Besides, with the SNP rudely rebuffing Alba at every opportunity, there is now an extrordinary irony:

Alba repeatedly asking  the SNP for a “Scotland United” joint ticket is becoming as pointless and humiliating as the SNP repeatedly asking Westminster for an S30 referendum.

Alba has already decided, at conference, that it is a political party not just a popular movement, and therefore is not confined to the Salvo/Liberation route.

Well, you are not a political party if you do not fight elections, and Rutherglen is here.

Now I am not a complete idiot (although I would be grateful if nobody polled my household on that).  I realise that a great many genuine Independence supporters have not yet realised they are betrayed, indeed taken for fools, by the SNP.

I understand that the “Scotland United” proposal is designed to avoid Alba being blamed for loss of seats to unionists under the First Past the Post system when the Independence vote is split.

But we have passed that now. We have offered again and again, and the SNP has said no. Scotland United is a very dead parrot.

I also no longer care if the SNP does lose seats to Labour.

We have incontrovertible proof that if the SNP holds 95% of Westminster seats, it does nothing to move for Independence.

We have incontrovertible proof that if the SNP holds a majority in the Scottish Parliament, with or without the Scottish Greens, it does nothing to move for Independence.

There is simply no connection, since Alex Salmond left, between the SNP winning seats and “mandates”, and Scottish Independence.

That is an incontrovertible fact and we need to bite the bullet and start explaining it relentlessly to the electorate.

Starting in Rutherglen.

I realise this is a hard road. I realise we may convince only hundreds this time. But a long hard road starts with the first step.

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75 thoughts on “Alba Must Fight Rutherglen

1 2
  • CardiffJock

    Well said Craig. It will be a long road but we have got nowhere with the SNP since 2014.

    Too many snouts in the trough and comfy lifestyles. Principles and ideals they may well have once genuinely held – oot the windae.

    If Alba stand, they will of course take SNP votes and split the independence vote. And SNP brickbats from Wishart et al, as well as from the Media establishment, will follow.

    But Alba – even if they are attacked on all sides as the bogeyman – need to tough it out for the long haul.

  • Bob (original)

    Seeing the leader of the UK governing party – which the majority of Scotland voters never votes for – make a brief flying visit up from London,
    to tell the local population that he was selling off more of our mineral rights,
    was depressing confirmation that colonialism is alive and well in 2023!

    Apart from the oil, London values our land and water resources.

    Since the Referendum, and especially since Brexit, it’s been obvious to a blind man
    that independence will never come from the ballot box.

  • andy

    Don’t disagree with much in this but I do want Humza’s team to be entirely responsible for the loss of the seat. That might loosen up the more enlightened MPs and MSPs.
    I would not like the snp to be able to point to alba splitting the vote at this stage.
    totally agree the SNP management team are entirely compromised

  • Sarge

    Unfortunately there are heaps and heaps of erstwhile independence folk who have become more attached to careerist SNP troughers than to the idea of independence itself. Most of them aren’t even related to the troughers and will never get a sniff of the trough themselves. Humza has become their latest guru if only because he was annointed by the Murrells. You will struggle to break the spell no matter how blatant his unionism. They will laud him even if he proposes a Better Together neolib alliance with New NuLabour.

  • Ron Murray

    I believe the SNP politicians are mostly beyond redemption and the shock of defeat with ALBA standing may swing an increase in support for ALBA and the funding that comes with it.

  • Republicofscotland

    Spot on Craig, unless there’s a few good indy SNP MSPs who are willing to go that extra mile to try and change the course of the SNP back onto delivering independence, if not, then its time to abandon them for good. It’s been almost a decade since the indyref vote and we’re not one step closer to dissolving this union even though the Scottish public have returned mandate after mandate to the SNP to at the very least hold an indyref, a route that Sturgeon and her LA tried to block off forever.

    Alba must stand candidates, as many as possible and at every election and in the Rutherglen Hamilton West by-election, as you rightly say it looks like we’re back to square one or maybe two as indy figures are higher now than when Alex Salmond set out all those years ago. Sturgeon really done a number on us and with the help of House Jocks and the English security services they ruined the SNP as a indy party.

    This always sticks in my mind.

    The International Court of Justice, in a 2010 advisory opinion, declared that unilateral declarations of independence were not illegal under international law.

  • Peter C

    Totally agree with your stance Craig – though heavy hearted in doing so.

    For me the situation with the SNP is that plain and simple I cannot vote for them again. Since Sturgeon they have not and will not move independence one step forward and in my view their (and the Green’s) promotion of trans-ideology and all that connects to that is a grievous, grievous mistake.

    For now I joined ALBA about a year ago and donate some when I can. All this has repercussions of course and at my age I no longer expect to see an independent Scotland in my lifetime. Ah well, I am trying to inure myself to that thought now. The haul to achieve independence will have to be down to younger generations than me. I wish them great luck and good fortune in their efforts.

    • Tony L

      Peter, I suspect (please correct me) that you are a more mature Scot than most of the commentators on here, and I also suspect you have been a supporter of Independence and the SNP for DECADES! I’m approaching 70, and like you I am now wondering if Scotland can rejoin the world before I have to make excuses to “my maker” (confession – I’m an atheist so this doesn’t really apply!).

      The last 9 years have convinced me that some in the SNP hierachy were never really Independence supporters and have taken our votes to live a life they could never have achieved on their merits. They have become just another bunch of politicians and not really the ‘radicals’ we need. Add to this the obvious influence on UK-SS agents in the movement and the next 10+ years looks like we’ll have to start again with a clean sheet.

      And as for ALBA, although I’m not a member (I joined ISP when they formed) I hope they have some seriously investigative processes on membership and influence as undoubtedly the UK-SS will have their fingers in the party (as I am sure they also have in ISP). We are up against history’s premier manipulators and saboteurs.

      The fight back starts now

  • Alan Crocket

    I agree that in recent years the SNP has not advanced the cause of independence, and that the leader has made it clear that all he will do on winning the next general election (which he defines as gaining a majority of Scottish seats) is repeat the entreaty to London for permission to hold a referendum – which I accept would be an entirely pointless gesture because it would certainly be refused. But the dilemma remains that only the SNP is in a position to do the right thing, by turning the general election into a proper plebiscite, if its membership can compel it to do so.
    I know that many members believe that is what should be done, and a motion has been sent in for the October conference to that effect. Whether it will make the agenda remains to be seen, but it declares that the manifesto should state: A vote for the SNP will be taken to be a vote for Scotland to become an independent country, and on a majority of such votes that is what will happen, within 3 years of the election, whether on terms negotiated with the UK Government or not. It also says that in order to strengthen rather than split the vote, the SNP should make whatever arrangements are required with the other independence parties.
    If the SNP comes out of the conference without adopting that proposal, it will be cutting its own throat and impeding Scottish independence. I believe that is the crunch point, rather than whatever transpires from the weird Rutherglen by-election.

  • Lapsed Agnostic

    Having had a look at the odds for Rutherglen & Hamilton West on Betfair* (currently over a 90% chance of a Labour win), I’m going to stick my neck out and say that if Alba do decide to stand, rather than splitting the Indie vote, it won’t make any difference to the overall result:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.215574273

    * Betfair punters don’t always get it right of course: see Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

  • deepgreen

    Seems to me that the SNP will lose the seat, emphatically. An Alba candidate will obviously divide the independence vote in some unknown proportion. Alba have a steep hill to climb and I am unsure of the strength of Alba to mount a campaign. It will require a major commitment to have any impact so putting up a candidate is quite high risk. Would Craig Murray be too provocative as a candidate?

    My gut feeling is that the Labour party will prevail, however the question arises how much of the hypocrisy and dishonesty of Starmer and his mini-me Sarwar has penetrated the electorate’s consciousness? (not much I suspect).
    The Starmer/Sarwar labour party has made a complete hash of its response to Sturgeon’s GRR bill, i.e. whipping his troops in Holyrood then being tripped up by Starmer’s pathetic flip-flop regarding his belated acceptance of the definition of a woman.

    The Sturgeon mantra – ‘Transwomen are women’ – has left her and the SNP utterly discredited but I cannot say how much that has penetrated the consciousness of SNP supporters. Yousaf has not acted decisively to dispel the negative effects of the GRR imbroglio, but then he has boxed himself into a corner he can’t now escape from.

    The other unknown is the effect of all the chaos and compromised leadership in the SNP. Many people like to follow their previously favoured party – i.e. the loyal diehard SNP support – but it is hard to believe there won’t be a major reaction to serial SNP ineptitude, fully whipped up to stiff peaks by the unionist print press and HIGHLY biased BBC.

    The polls are indicating a Labour win but this by-election is a difficult one to predict. It is one where the result will be very informative about the many unknowns in Scottish politics.

    • glenn_nl

      DG: “The Sturgeon mantra – ‘Transwomen are women’ – has left her and the SNP utterly discredited but I cannot say how much that has penetrated the consciousness of SNP supporters.

      I find it hard to imagine anyone bases their vote chiefly on one politician’s views on trannies. They would have to be pretty obsessed with the subject to give the thumbs up/down to a party due to views on that one subject.

      • deepgreen

        disagree – the subject, and SNP policy is very important. It will be an important factor. Sturgeon was a lynchpin for SNP support. Now it (she /he) has gone the whole snp clamjamfrey is at risk of unravelling.

        • glenn_nl

          You may well be right, but I – personally – cannot understand why that many people would get so worked up about what is surely a fairly trivial issue in most people’s lives.

          • SF

            It isn’t trivial, because anyone who insists that TWAW is denying that actual women have sex-based rights that need to be protected. Most people haven’t realized that yet – they would if the GRR bill had become law and the consequences had started to be apparent – so they will not yet be factoring it into their voting decisions, you’re right about that.

            What’s also not trivial is that identity politics have replaced independence as an SNP priority (they always were more important for the Greens), which might become obvious rather sooner.

          • Tony L

            Glenn, it’s NOT trivial. You can argue that at some small individual level it is unlikely to have an impact, but this entire philosophy is designed to unpick centuries of well ordered social interaction.

            Every single man taking a woman’s place undermines society.
            Every single cancellation undermines democracy.
            Every single child persuaded they are “in the wrong body” creates a life long drug dependency and profits for billionaires.
            Every single woman dismissed for “badthink” creates an oppressive culture of cowardice and silence.

            The radical TRA movement is specifically funded to undermine every decent social criteria. Please wake up

          • terence callachan

            glenn_nl…it is trivial in most peoples lives as you say , for SF it’s not trivial , for me it is trivial.
            Let’s act on the decision of the majority

          • glenn_nl

            SF: I didn’t say the subject was trivial. But it’s hardly the foremost issue for the vast majority of voters. Which was my point.

            Tony L: Again, I didn’t say it was trivial. Kindly read what I actually said.

            But I quite understand how some beady-eyed zealot could interpret it that way, were they so fanatical and whacked out enough to actually believe – even in their most fanciful moments – that “Every single child [is] persuaded [that] they are “in the wrong body”.

            Of course, there is no reasoning with people that silly. It’s doubtless a product of religious delusion, and such people cannot be reached by reason or logic.

          • Tom Berney

            Indeed. The notion that people are basing their vote in Hamilton on this is bizarre,
            Only the Tories voted against the amendment in Holyrood, but it was the Tories who passed the present 2004 GRA giving the present right to change legal gender,
            So I hesitate to say it (in case it gets them votes) thatt ALBA are the only party who have set out to politically weaponise transphobia, It was depressing to see Salmond and Craig sell their conciencess so cynically. Thankfully, it hasn’t worked for them 2% and falling? Not even a mess of potage.

        • Tom Berney

          What I can’t understand about this kind of comment

          SF:” It isn’t trivial, because anyone who insists that TWAW is denying that actual women have sex-based rights that need to be protected. Most people haven’t realized that yet – they would if the GRR bill had become law”

          What I can’t uunderstand Is the hangup about the GRR and why you target the Scottish Government? The Gender Reform Act was passed by Westminster two decades ago, so since then the law says transgender women ARE legally women (and similarly for transmen – there’s more of them). Why has there been no fuss about that? Did nobody notice?
          All the Scottish amendment would have done was fall in line with many other countries by making the application process less bureaucratic. All the fuss about which prison trans are allocated to etc arises from the present UK law.
          So why has it been made a stick to beat Scotland with? This being Conspiracy Central I’ll suggest that it was just another Unionist plan to discredit the SNP. However, a perhaps more likely explanation, is that the dozy journalists in our MM had not noticed that trans women have been legally women in UK for about 20 years. Presumably, the lack of discernable impact from that led them to overlook it.

  • DiggerUK

    I think any half-political voters in Scotland will more than likely look at the SNP’s record on such issues as ferries, airports, spine road (A9?), self ID, then look at the party that can’t find £660,000 lost down the back of a sofa, and walk on by.

    I believe that the issue of independence will be well down the list of voter concerns. It seems Labour will be a shoe in for the seat…. will anybody notice the difference if Labour get elected… will anybody really care?

    Alba should stop posing and stand on its own ground. It’s time they were called out.

    I don’t have any skin in the Indy movement one way or the other…_

  • pete

    I am sure Craig is right on this issue, there is no point in voting for a party that is against the very principle you desire most, in this case independence from the rest of the UK. The SNP has managed to create enough hurdles to prevent independence occurring already without encouraging voters to split from a rival party in the name of unity, a unity that would thwart the central plank of Alba while propping up a self serving regime that that is doing nothing for independence. It is true that in the short term a tactical arrangement with a rival party might have a small advantage, but such collusions have had dire consequences in the long term if the history of the Liberal party is anything to go by. My advice – not that you want or need it – is only vote for the party that is unambiguously for what you actually want.

  • Alf Baird

    Craig is on the right track as per usual.

    The SNP colonial administrators are finished in Scotland and could soon collapse at the ballot box, perhaps as suddenly as did Scottish Labour Branch before them, and previously the Scottish Landed Toadies. If people want independence they cannot afford to align with any colonial party and that is what the SNP now is.

    The only realistic hope for Alba making (any?) ground at this by-election is if its leader Alex Salmond stands. This is perhaps an ideal opportunity for him to re-connect with ‘ordinary’ folk and raise the profile of Alba. They might instead consign him to the dustbin of political history, that’s their choice, but I doubt it. Either way it would be good to know.

    The key thing is that Salmond’s candidature could not be ignored, even by a unionist msm. Anyone else would be reduced to a footnote, if that, a waste of a deposit even, the end result making Yousaf and other unionists grin. Yes, a big Salmond/Alba loss would also make unionists grin. But what is the likelihood of that? What is also a point of note for independence supporters in the constituency is reminding them that Alex got us a lot closer to independence than any of his dubious successors who have only led the people up blind alleys.

    • terence callachan

      Alex Salmond should stand for election but not one like Rutherglen it’s too late in the campaign diary for a new entry

      • Alf Baird

        Nobody has voted yet. An independence leader has to be prepared to lead the people, no matter where. A positive result could re-invigorate the independence movement and help establish Alba. Polls suggest many supporters of independence will stay at home unless they have someone or something worth voting for, as occurred in 2017 when the SNP said that election was not about independence and they lost seats.

  • Andrew Ingram

    I agree with you Craig.
    By standing Alba would provide a home for protest voters unwilling to vote for a unionist party.
    Saving their deposit would be a good win.

  • Bruce Roger Hosie

    Craig

    Scotland United was dead before it even began to be honest. The SNP were never going to go for it in any way and they are a unionist party now in all but name. I think Alba is playing this for a few hoped-for gains with the voters, they knew the SNP would never go for it, and they hope that they will benefit from angry SNP voters. The idea will show the SNP for what they are but there will be little or no gain for Alba at this point – longer term there might be but I am not convinced: Alba are just not radical enough and feel like they are playing by the rules that keep Scotland a colony. The fact that, allegedly, Alba also did not reach out to ISP regarding Scotland United is not a good look either. Labour may well win the Rutherglen seat; I suspect it will be more down to SNP incompetence and independence supporters not turning out to vote than anything else. We need a new message to break through the apathy and fear that many suffer from. How we do that I am not so sure other than keep trying to educate, keep banging the drum but we need to be looking at all the options and having some sort of coordinated approach.

  • Tom Welsh

    “As I have consistently explained, Westminster will never consent to lose Scotland’s resources. Independence will have to be taken.

    “Anybody who believes that we need permission from London for Independence, by definition does not believe in Scotland’s right of self-determination”.

    I am surprised to see Mr Murray express that opinion. Does he then believe that, as set forth in the U.S. Declaration of Independence, any people has the right to secede from its government and set up a government of its own? Or does he accept President Lincoln’s cynical proviso, “having the power” – meaning that a people can gain independence only if they can make it stick by winning the ensuing war?

    Where does that leave what I understand to be the Washington/London/NATO doctrine that no part of a nation can become independent without the consent of the parent government?

    If Scotland has the right to become independent – with or without having to fight – did Crimea and Donbass have that right? If not, why not?

    • Bayard

      “Where does that leave what I understand to be the Washington/London/NATO doctrine that no part of a nation can become independent without the consent of the parent government?”
      Presumably that’s only true when the parent government is part of NATO.

    • Observer

      “what I understand to be the Washington/London/NATO doctrine that no part of a nation can become independent without the consent of the parent government?”

      What gives you that idea? Have you forgotten Yugoslavia and Syria. to name a couple of examples?

    • joel

      “Today, the SNP is what Alex Salmond made it – a pro-business, socially liberal, pro-EU and NATO globalist party. Inter alia, this is why it isn’t very good at fighting for Scottish independence: the transnationalism of the SNP has made independence, well, dependant. It requires a certificate of approval from a host of institutions that will never grant one. It may be comforting to think everything was going grand until the devious Nicola Sturgeon took over – but it wasn’t. Sturgeon was handed a dodgy prospectus and made it worse…”

      An interesting proposition from David Jamieson. He says all sides in Scotland now endorse Salmond’s ideology and “cannot see how it has issued in the polarisation and futility of the culture war.”

      https://www.conter.scot/2023/8/13/the-alex-salmond-consensus/

      • craig Post author

        I think Alex cut a number of deals with the devil in order to try to sneak through Independence in 2014, especially on NATO, which he is definitely personally against. You may recall he was the only person in the UK parliament to speak against NATO’s bombing of Serbia, and Alba is explicitly anti NATO and for Norway style EFTA membership, not for EU membership.

        • joel

          That’s good to hear. He has a job on though to roll back NATO and EU worship as mainstream commonsense in Scottish political debate. He was key in entrenching it as commonsense among independence supporters.

          • Tony L

            Joel, I think things are changing. 10 years ago I would have been (more or less) in favour of NATO and the EU. Today I’m not. NATO has become just a tool of USA aggression, and the EU has morphed into some sort of bureaucratic monster with social manipulation overtones.

            I want access to the market, but not to adhere to all of the new wave suspicious social manipulation.

            So, for me an iScotland should be a Republic, an Economic powerhouse (EFTA), and a genuinely independent military power which supports HUMANITARIAN intervention NOT military ones.

            Others of course will disagree!

        • Ronny

          I don’t think he was the only one to speak against the NATO bombing. Perhaps he was the most forceful, or received most abuse from the tabloids, but Tony Benn, Alice Mahon, even Alan Clark spoke against it.

          Strangely his contributions when MP for Banff and Buchan for 23 years seem to have largely disappeared from Hansard online.

      • DiggerUK

        @joel, David Jamieson presents a good perspective, one of the best I have seen on Scottish matters.

        It always seemed odd that Salmond just resigned, always seemed a mystery. If there was any push or jump it has been a well kept secret. A most pertinent comment was his “Sturgeon was handed a dodgy prospectus and made it worse”

        If ALBA don’t stand they will have to be written off as piss poor tribute act…_

      • Mac

        What dilemma was that Craig? I was a student in halls of residence in Hillhead (in 87) and voted for Roy (what can I tell you I was a student) for him only to be unseated by some guy called George Galloway, or Gorgeous George as he was known back then with his perma-tan (versus the Twat-in-a-Hat as he is known now).

        To be fair to Galloway he was the only one to personally visit all the different halls of residence during that campaign, give a speech and take questions. I recall he turned up with two of the roughest guys I have ever seen. I am not sure if they were labour apparatchiks or minders or both but they looked like they just walked out of Bar-L no exaggeration.

  • Colin Alexander

    I have no interest in sending another Scottish MP to Westminster, when UK Parliament rejects the fundamental principle that Scotland’s people have the right of self-determination (so do not require prior permission from Westminster MPs to exercise self-determination).

    I believe the Scots in Scotland are sovereign and so Scots politicians should only swear allegiance to the people of Scotland: so should not swear fealty to King Charles. The new MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West would be refused their MP seat in the House of Commons if they refused to swear fealty to King Charles.

    But, Scots MPs should not be going there anyway, for as long as Scotland’s people continue to be treated like colonial subjects of the British Empire or like the feudal serfs of King Charles. King Charles who was crowned on Edward’s Chair and the reputed to be plundered Stone of Destiny, to symbolise the crushing of Scottish independence by English Crown military conquest.

    • Xaracen

      It’s well past time our Scottish MPs realised that they are the sole representatives of the sovereign Scottish founder of the Union in the Union’s parliament, and they are there expressly to act as the agents and ambassadors of the Scottish kingdom in the debates and decisions that constitute the joint governance of the Union’s two kingdoms.

      Being agents and ambassadors of a sovereign kingdom in a forum containing two such groups it is obvious that the Scots MPs cannot be in the least obliged to submit to any English MP majority on any matter negotiated in that parliament, since Scotland and its MPs owe no fealty or obeisance of any sort to England, and nothing in the Treaty requires them to. England’s MPs only represent the English founder of the Union, and neither group can represent the Union on their own; they can only do that together.

      Once that is understood, it becomes equally obvious that valid Union decisions can only be those that were approved by both MP groups, and not just by the larger one on his own. Understanding this is not hard; but to accept it requires integrity, something that has always been in short supply.

      • Bayard

        There must have been a lot of arm-twisting, bribery or both for the members of the Scottish Parliament to accept a deal whereby, instead of them making their own decisions for Scotland, they became a minority in a combined parliament where they could always be outvoted on Scottish matters by the more numerous English and Welsh MPs.

        • Xaracen

          That’s my whole point, the relative numbers of the two groups of MPs don’t matter, because neither group has any legitimate authority over the other, and only an over-simplistic interpretation of democracy gives any pretence of English superiority through its MPs’ greater numbers. As far as Scotland is concerned England’s MPs can’t outvote the Scots, they can only provide an English Yes or No in a vote, to be matched against a Scottish Yes or No.

          England has no legitimate authority over Scotland, and it never has, and the Treaty didn’t change that, and it certainly doesn’t specify that a simple majority vote of all MPs would settle all Union matters. And even if that was just assumed by the negotiators, then since it wasn’t specified in the Treaty, it was never ratified by either of the former parliaments, meaning that assumption has no legal standing, and therefore the Scots MPs are under no obligation to submit to any English MP majority.

          Remember that the Treaty created a brand new parliament for the Union, and there is nothing in the Treaty to require that all of the rules and procedures of England’s old parliament would apply in it. Even simple common sense should tell you that there is no particular reason that the Kingdom of Scotland should submit to the Kingdom of England in any matter of their joint governance. So what if England is ten times larger than Scotland, who cares? It’s still not entitled to run Scotland.

          Besides, every Scots MP is worth ten of England’s MPs, and even David Cameron accepted that, hence his need for EVEL to even things up a bit. 😀

  • sergey

    independence well prepared in advance and ripe is sth taken from a collection of fairytales. when and if it happens, it happens overnight, in a go, almost on an impulse. not “long ways” and associated bullshit. craig himself admitted pretty recently nats totally missed a couple of very rare, very good occasions to wrestle the power. it was up for the taking, but craig was… writing nice analytical pieces on going indi stead of going out in the cold and actually taking it…

  • Chris Downie

    I agree with Craig’s assessment here. Whether we like it or not, we’re in a long game and though that seems incredible, given the perfect storm of Westminster ineptitude since 2014, we are where we are. That said, the Alba policy of EFTA/EEA over full EU membership may go some way to reconciling with the YES/Leave demographic; Ashcroft and many in the YES movement acknowledge 35-40% of SNP voters voted Leave, despite significant pressure from Sturgeon and her cohorts to back Remain. The internet was also awash in 2016 with tactical voters who were Eurosceptic, but saw a democratic deficit as the golden ticket to a second indyref.

    What also hasn’t gone unnoticed is the EU apathy towards Scotland since 2016. Sure, their neutrality in the run-up to 2014 was understandable, in not wanting to interfere in the domestic politics of a then-member state, nor to jeopardise the transition period after 2016, but why their continued silence today, long after the UK has left? Is the carrot of a PR coup over a seemingly disloyal UK not enough? Or the chance to share Scotland’s continuing oil & gas wealth and/or its future renewable energy potential? Clearly something is afoot with the EU and its silence suggests leaving one union for a much larger (arguably no more democratic) one isn’t the smartest idea.

  • amanfromMars

    Craig, Hi,

    It appears that Dominic Cummings also realises that progress is never ever going to be served and servered by current conventional and traditional status quo bodies/entities and thus are the likes of Albanians [a new set of people with new ideas?] the necessary seed bed from which stout oaks and brave hearts will grow. And now we have all of the many greater powers of Generative AI to harness and wield in the greater service of future humanoid managed mankind, although that does appear to be something of a worry with many a soul concerned that such be an extremely valid existential threat rather than accepting it can be just as likely an almighty treat?

    amanfromMars 1 Tue 22 Aug 10:10 [2308221010] ……. shares news of quantum leaping support on https://forums.theregister.com/forum/4/2023/08/21/opinion_column_monday/

    Re: The Simply Complex Solution in an AIMovement ….. with Popular Virtual Machine Uprisings?

    Spookily enough, such has been similarly proposed very recently as necessary, and is more fully expanded upon by someone whom you might know better and be more aware of. It makes for an interesting and thought provoking few minutes read …….

    NB. …… Anyone admitting falling foul of TL:DR earns an automatic F* [Fail with Star Distinction]

    #4 The Startup Party: Time to Build from September and replace the Tories?
    Assumptions? The market opportunity? Principles for a new Party? How to grow? Stand in seats in GE24?

    DOMINIC CUMMINGS
    11 AUG 2023

    A great chance (best since 1850s?) to replace the Tories

    An easy way to see the utter rot of the Tory Party (and the No10/Cabinet Office system) is to consider that after the Boris-Truss fiasco they’ve put in charge the MP with probably the highest IQ in Parliament and the toughest work ethic and he’s ‘respecting the institutions’ and ‘listening to the MPs’ like a good head boy with personal integrity just the way he’s been told to by Cameron, Osborne, Hague, Insider pundits, the Institute for Government et al, and the result is:

    . no grip of power, the Cabinet Office a dumpster fire and no No10 plan to fix it, No10 given the run-around by Whitehall as soon as the PM’s office switches from one disaster to the next,
    . no governing plan for the NHS, crime, the war, productivity growth, R&D or anything else — just nightmarish Treasury budget/Spending Review processes that vandalise long-term building and entrench the dangerous rot of critical national capabilities,
    . no message,
    . no serious polling, communication or political machine (just incoherent jabbering to the media per the Tory model of ‘communication’ for decades),
    . no political strategy worth spit (current approach is indistinguishable from ‘annoy everyone’),
    . a humiliatingly awful level of argument from No10 on every major issue (reduced to defending idiot MPs telling people to ‘fuck off’ out of frustration that their own policy, which officials and their own spads told them couldn’t work, has turned into the predicted fiasco),
    . political disintegration.

    The old system isn’t getting any better than Sunak as PM so what does this say about the system? For Insiders obviously the answer is — he should have been even more Insider, tell the country immigration is good (not out of control), the boats need a ‘safe route’ so they stop being ‘illegal’, ignore crime, you’ll have to work harder and pay more taxes and trust Westminster more, no populism! Outside SW1, the answer has been clear for years but SW1 doesn’t want to hear it: government is broken because the people aren’t up to it.

    Every aspect is rotten and this exerts a collective paralysis. Having resolutely ignored the core dysfunctions of Whitehall in favour of daily tacking to MP factions and ‘the news’ in Westminster (‘respect the institutions!’), No10 is now timed out by that system — normal-mode Whitehall can’t do anything fast and from September officials will ensure the timetable for anything they don’t agree with stretches into the election campaign so it won’t happen.

    Even if the PM suddenly decided to use his power he won’t be able to. But all signs are he’s effectively given up. Officials across No10/70Whitehall discuss ‘has the PM given up or is it some complex psychology indistinguishable from giving up?’. Either way, he’s chosen not to use the power he has but instead listen to uber-Insider-pundits with the inevitable results.

    How does he spend his time? A few officials who work with him give almost the same line:

    He’d make a great PS [private secretary] or DG [director general], every meeting with him improves some second-order thing a bit, but he isn’t doing the PM’s job, I don’t think he realises this and I don’t think his spads tell him.

    He spends his time wading through endless detail and spreadsheets on fifth order matters because it’s psychologically easier than doing the PM’s actual job which he doesn’t know how to do nor wants to do. Officials obviously prefer him to Boris or Truss. He reads the papers diligently and is neither a crook nor a cretin. But the old hands know it’s roughly the Brown failure mode: a workaholic, the PM’s office a massive bottleneck and can’t sustain focus when the news shifts, the smartest MP but can’t build a team or lead etc etc. No10 is so politically lost that OFFICIALS suggest ways the PM can achieve his priorities faster and his OWN SPADS say ‘no too aggressive’. The fundamental reason for the boats failure is choices by the PM’s political team and a reluctance by Sunak to face unpleasant reality, not deep state resistance.

    If he had four years I can imagine him figuring things out and evolving but his misfortune is that he had no time to learn. He’s compounded his misfortune by listening to the most insider of Insider advice. When you make your daily fix the MPs and news, as almost everyone does, it’s incredibly hard to escape from because, like escaping any addiction, there’s an unavoidable awful period after you change course where you annoy everyone before a new plan has time to work so there’s always a ‘sensible’ Insider argument to delay. And by the time you realise you’ve wasted your time reacting to the news like every PM since Thatcher, you’re done. (See here for why I got him promoted in 2020.)

    From September a long election campaign will effectively start and it will be a continuation of 2023 — a weekly race to show who is worse at politics but with all fundamentals favouring Starmer.

    Then dud Starmer will fail from Day 1 and the patterns of failure will be the same as we’ve seen since Brown (with the brief partial exceptions of July-December 2019 and March-May 2020). Starmer and Sunak will write Memoirs and puzzle, like Cameron’s, about how they could never find those mythical ‘levers of power’ — the levers that the Cabinet Secretary of spring 2020 said a few days ago that he also struggled to find or, if he did, found they didn’t connect to much (even though, remember, the Cabinet Secretary is 10X – 100X more powerful than the average Cabinet Minister).

    Will the Tories improve after the election and grasp why they failed so badly, why the 80 seat majority Vote Leave won was wasted? No. They will talk rubbish about the last 15 years, as they did after 1997.

    Already I’m getting messages from MPs and donors ‘How do we rebuild the Party after the inevitable, can we have a quiet chat?’ NO NO NO. No more excruciating Tory dinners. No more ‘X is obviously not up to it but … maybe … we could build a team around them, oh god pass the red…’ NO. Plough the old Tory Party into the earth with salt. I prefer the calls that start, ‘Come on, it’s time for the startup party let’s go’.

    This is the time to start building the replacement so that from 2200 on election night in October-December 2024 the old Party is buried and a new set of people with new ideas start talking to the country and can take over in 2028 and give voters the sort of government they want and deserve.

    Here endeth Part 1 of 2, with the tail end of a simply complex solution to now follows as Part 2

    xxxxxxx

    Re: The Simply Complex Solution in an AIMovement ….. with Popular Virtual Machine Uprisings?

    Part 2 [as aforementioned was to follow Part 1]

    Some basic questions for The Startup Party?

    What is the political opportunity, why is it here now? (The context of what happened in the Brexit referendum and 2019, the VL plan to transform the Tory Party etc, is obviously relevant but I won’t rehash all this now, cf. HERE.)

    Why are Starmer and Sunak failing so badly? What does this mean for the election and how the next government fails? What will the old parties plus normal Whitehall plus normal political media generate left to their own devices (i.e rattling around without a strong external force affecting the system)?

    How to turn some ideas and writing into practically building TSP? Timing? Basic principles for building TSP so it’s 10X higher performance, more interesting, more attractive than the old parties?

    What’s the political story for TSP? How does A) some sort of attempted objective picture of our biggest problems overlap with B) the nature of the political opportunity?

    What are the dynamics among different elites, in particular the subset of elites who are a) most competent at building but also b) almost entirely disconnected from mainstream politics?

    Should the project be strictly/legally time limited? E.g something like — the new entity dissolves legally 10 years to the day after it first takes control of No10. So there’s a campaign 2024-28 then, if we win, a ten-year-two-term project to transform the British state, then hand power over to others, with the new party legally dissolving.

    Should TSP stand some candidates (~25-75?) in some interesting seats in GE2024 to a) build the brand, b) build the network, c) give some people experience of an election, d) help ensure Tory oblivion? Or focus entirely on building towards 10pm on election night? There’s arguments both ways and it obviously depends on how things develop (see below). Even winning a small number of votes in a relatively limited number of seats could drive the Tories towards extinction so should be considered. Some people are worried about Starmer having a Blair-like majority. I’m much more worried by the continuation of what I’ve witnessed for 20 years and happy to gamble on Starmer having a Blair-like majority if it means the replacement of the perpetual rotten Tory horrorshow. Starmer with a Blair-majority really means the civil service running things anyway, so it will be normal-rubbish but hardly revolutionary, and not much different to Tories in charge.

    Below:

    1. Some basic assumptions behind TSP.
    2. The market opportunity for TSP.
    3. What would TSP look like overall.
    4. Very rough steps for building TSP.
    5. The hardest problem.

    What about the 3 recent by-elections?

    I haven’t looked at details but my impression is they were practically the worst possible for the Tories. Why?

    1. ….. They show the Tories actually on course for wipeout.
    2. ……The ULEZ fiasco gives Starmer a stick to beat the MPs with and ditch a load of stuff that scares swing voters.
    3. ……The ULEZ fiasco gives Tories/PM many new ways to avoid facing reality, which is what most of them want to do, including many close advisers to Sunak. Given they have no actual plan, lurching in response to ULEZ could easily make a disastrous situation even worse for them. (SW1 repeatedly over-theorises from minimal data and Uxbridge/ULEZ is a classic example.)

    This is even worse for the Tories than losing all three and great for Starmer.

    And even better for The Startup Party!

    If you were part of the Vote Leave network please forward this to others you know in that network. Leave feedback below…

    NB. please remember what I said before, a new party is a startup and it’s a good way to think about this project, but The Startup Party isn’t an actual name, it’s a place holder, plenty of time for horrific arguments about names if we make this real!

    (Apologies for quiet over last month, I’ve had to do my covid statement for the official inquiry. I’ll post some of it here over the next few weeks as I finish it.)

    • Tony L

      Johnny, it would be a dereliction of duty if the UK-SS had NOT placed agents in ALBA, or for that matter ISP and other pro-Independence parties. It’s what their job is – i.e. Defending the United Kingdom. If they were willing to impregnate women in Greenham Common, who thinks they AREN’T inveigling there ways into ALBA et al?

  • Funn3r

    I am English and although I respect and support Scottish independence I have no real understanding of why you want it. Are you sure you do want it?

    The reason I ask is that I voted Remain in the EU and at the time I similarly had little understanding of the Leavers. Years having now passed since Brexit delivered their wish I do not know a single Leaver who is content. They seem deeply and massively disappointed that their hoped-for and expected improvements in their lives (whatever they might have been) have simply not happened, and are not going to happen. Why would Scotland exiting the UK be any different?

    • Carl

      Nobody has ever wanted to return to rule by London. You can go back centuries and choose from dozens of independent nations and hundreds and hundreds of millions of people. Moreover I have never met (or even heard of) anybody who is deeply and massively disappointed that Brexit has not improved their lives. I sincerely doubt you have either.

      • Funn3r

        OK Carl I will defer to the views of a Scot. I notice you declined the opportunity to explain the reasons behind desire for independence, perhaps because you don’t know what they are. I do indeed know many severely disappointed English Leavers and they entirely blame a succession of Tory Prime Ministers and Tory governments (especially the current one) for failing to pursue what Leavers consider would have been the right policies and actions post-Brexit. My question remains; why would an equivalent “Scottish Exit” be different.

        • Tony L

          I can’t answer of Carl. My reason for wanting an Independent Scotland is simple. I believe that the best people to resolve Scotland’s specific problems are people who are invested in Scotland. WM politicians’ focus is on London and the SE England. Fair enough, but that doesn’t help us in Scotland resolving OUR problems, which are not the same.

          Scottish decisions should be made IN Scotland BY Scots.

          For me it’s that simple. And if we elect idiots, WE can remove them. But we CAN’T remove idiots elected by England.

  • Lapsed Agnostic

    Re: ‘As I have consistently explained, Westminster will never consent to lose Scotland’s resources.’

    The British Empire had far more resources, both in terms of minerals and people, than Scotland does. Nevertheless, it had mostly gone within a twenty-year period. Was it because our forefathers had seen the moral error of their colonialist ways? No, it was because it was costing them too much.

    On that note, the latest GERS figures* are upon us. They show that even in spite of substantial windfall taxes on energy companies arising from the War/SMO in Ukraine’s raising of energy prices, Scotland still spent £19 billion more on public services etc, than it took in taxes.

    Despite Rishi recently promising to establish more fields, Scotland’s oil & gas is running out: less than half the number of barrels of oil per day are being produced compared to 15 years ago. Sure, Scotland has a lot of wind, and even some sunshine on occasion – but so does the rest of the UK, and even if it didn’t, uranium-235 atoms exist.

    Unlike Labourites, most Tory MPs are not sentimental, and the ones that are aren’t particularly sentimental about Scotland. Many of them can also do maths, as well as realising that offering another Indyref might win them much-needed seats in Scotland at the next but one GE. So, all might not be lost on the referendum front.

    * I know that many on here are of the opinion that the GERS figures are completely wrong and that Scotland actually produces a substantial surplus every year. How is that? Please show your working.

    • Bayard

      “Was it because our forefathers had seen the moral error of their colonialist ways? No, it was because it was costing them too much.”
      Thus the colonial government was replaced by “independence”, where the ex-colony now bore the cost of their government, but the UK was still able to access the natural resources at the same profitable rate as before. If ex-colonies took the idea of independence too seriously and started to demand a fair price for their natural resources, then there ways always the option of regime change to install a government more attuned to the needs of the ex-colonial power.

      • Lapsed Agnostic

        Thanks for your reply Bayard. Yes, that was true to a significant extent. The problem for Scotland though is that, unlike with rubber, bananas etc, much of what it exports (e.g. financial services) can easily be carried out in the rest of the UK.

        • Tony L

          Scotland’s economy is far more than financial services. See our food/drinks industry and its contribution to “UK” exports. See our natural sciences, or IT, or Tourism, or Education, or future renewable energy potential.

          The MSM would have you believe Scotland is totally inadequate to survive economically, but at the same time politicians tell us that Scotland’s O&G will provide the support the UK needs to get over its current crisis.

          Schrodinger’s Scotland: at once an economic wasteland AND the UK’s savior.

          • Lapsed Agnostic

            Thanks for your reply Tony. Financial services comprise around 10% of Scottish exports and are mostly to the rest of the UK. Scottish food & drink exports are currently about 1% of total UK exports. Scottish ‘natural sciences’, IT and education exports are minimal. Of course an independent Scotland could survive economically, but it would have to either cut public spending substantially or raise taxes.

    • Pigeon English

      Most of the countries do it including UK (apart from idiotic Russia?). We are all about 100 % debt to GDP while “fiscally responsible” Putin and RF is at 10-15% of GDP. Anyway what’s your point??
      Scotland could have a choice to borrow money from Scottish central Bank and spend it on whatever they want instead of asking BoE.
      Will they go down that route, I doubt! They will adopt neoliberalism dogma?! Only game in town!!!
      Even our host is the old nationalist and neo-liberal school with human face.
      Anyway “Independence means independence”. What do I mean?
      Independence means independence no ifs or buts?.
      Alba should be sort of UKIP. No seats but truth/ or perceived truth and push SNP into independence agenda. (I know there are more important issues than independence – too many to mention ?)
      Alba has IMHO only one task: “Independence means Independence”, no ifs or buts.

    • Pigeon English

      I forgot the Irish.
      What is Irish debt/GDP/GDP per capita etc.
      Sorry for bit of racism but Irish are not much smarter than Skotish but Scots are (paradox) more progressive than the English.
      I ❤️ you English and Scots and (why would I put Irish in this statement).
      From “East European” perspective we are just “East Europeans” and all of you are fucking English ?.

      • Lapsed Agnostic

        Thanks for your reply PE – and for the emojis. According to the GERS figures for financial year 2022/23, the fiscal deficit for Scotland was 9% (even with the windfall taxes), compared to 5.2% for the UK as a whole – that’s a big difference. Any country’s central bank can just print money and give it to people. The problem is that it leads to inflation, which is what’s happening in most of the Western world now. Irish debt-to-GDP is currently only about 40%, mainly due to significant economic growth over there in the past decade. I’m not ****ing anything at the moment – sticking to cigarettes.

  • Kevin E

    If you are really serious about Independence which I’m sure you are Craig then the idea of going to Westminster and swearing allegiance to a foreign monarch and his successors should be a non starter the Independence Movement must stand on a abstentionist platform just like Sinn Fein did in the 1919 general election and take their seats at Holyrood instead

  • Murdo Ritchie

    Although I agree with Craig ‘s position, this will need to be a more nuanced approach than most by election campaigns.

    Labour and the SNP will fight this by election like two walruses, each using their inertia to nudge the other out of the way. It will be fought on their own imagined pictures of their past records. It will not be fought, if they can manage it, on any ideas of a way forward for the future.

    Calling for a Scotland United approach with only one issue presented at the ballot box is essential, but it requires the SNP be held to account for their unwillingness to mobilise and organise their supporters to bring pressure to bear for independence or even, some of the other proposals presented in the 2014 Scottish White Paper..

    The Scotland United approach will have to be of longer duration than one by election. This requires fighting a by election fighting for unity while simultaneously fighting for many of ALBA’s distinctive policies in a way that can get them into the popular mind.

    At present, far too many, in spite of the glaring evidence, still believe the SNP is a party committed to national independence and refuse to accept it has settled for becoming a devolution party. Agitation to clarify this folly is still required but has to be done in a manner that avoids throwing blame.

    Amusingly, the Greens, the SNP’s add-on, are also fighting this by election. It reveals how little both the SNP and the Greens really value this coalition. They can’t even find a united candidate.

    The fight for ideas may be the way forward. ALBA does have distinctive policies that can give it a sharp cutting edge. This has to be done while blunting that sharpness with a call for unity to very unwilling forces. ALBA’s recent poster of Rishi/ Dracula should be used to promote the Sovereign Wealth Fund advocated in the Scottish government’s 2014 White Paper, rather than just a comedic cartoon. After all, neither the Tories or Labour have any intention of supporting this demand and the SNP have done nothing to even make any advocacy for this project.

    ALBA’s refusal to join NATO and to seek membership of EFTA instead of re-joining the European Union as an alternative would extricate a future Scotland from many of the traps that the SNP has now fallen into. These are some of the many points that have to be promoted while still calling for unity.

  • Ian Chisholm

    A coup against the snp leadership cabal would be the answer to getting back to the snp being the political wing of the independence Movement…and not currently simply another political party whose aim is self preservation.
    We can at that point be like the co op party and Labour party. Its to all our advantages to retry the proposal for the 2026 SP GE Alba is supported by the SNP for list seats. If it has not happened by then for sure ALBA must stand in all CA and List seats. But standing in Rutherglen is precipitate and damaging to the new born baby that is Alba.

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