Lebanon’s Unbalanced Ceasefire Teeters on the Brink 86


Only Israel has opened fire since the start of the “ceasefire”, and Israel has done so repeatedly. Nobody has fired back.

Israel has for three days in a row attacked alleged Hezbollah rocket sites with bombs or missiles, killing at least four people and probably more. Israel has opened fire on journalists. It has critically wounded two mourners at a funeral. There are numerous reports of Lebanese civilians returning to their homes in the South coming under fire from Israeli troops.

This video shows the two people shot by snipers at a funeral. The man is saying that they had permission for the funeral from UNIFIL and from the Lebanese Army.

Israel has also used the “ceasefire” to advance its forces including tanks into towns and villages from which they had been repulsed and which Israel could not take by fighting. It has entrenched positions in Southern Lebanon, issued orders to Lebanese civilians not to return to over sixty villages in South Lebanon – none of which it had managed to permanently occupy in the fighting – and is reinforcing, re-arming and re-equipping.

Israel in fact is treating the “ceasefire” as unconditional surrender. All of this was entirely predictable, not only from Israel’s past and normal behaviour, but also on the face of the “ceasefire” document itself, which is a wildly unbalanced document.

It offends my own sensibilities as a former diplomat that the Lebanese foreign ministry signed up to such an abject and undisguised document of submission.

Let us start by analysing paragraph 2 of this document:

2. From 4am, November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military or other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air or sea.

You see the imbalance immediately.

Lebanese armed groups will be stopped from carrying out “any operations against Israel” whereas Israel will not carry out “any offensive military operations.”

There is no way that Lebanon should ever have accepted that the term “offensive” is inserted for one side only. There is no possible way of parsing this, other than that Israel is still allowed to fire, and nobody else can. Israel has in fact fired, killed and wounded with abandon since the ceasefire came into force, and of course characterises this as “defensive” military action.

The Lebanese government have recorded 51 breaches of the ceasefire by Israel in three days.

The United States and its allies have designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation – a FTO in US legal parlance. The USA – which is set up as the arbiter of the ceasefire – therefore views any military action by Israel against anyone or anything deemed “Hezbollah”, anywhere and anytime, as a legitimate counter-terrorism operation.

The USA therefore simply takes the view – and the UK will take the same view – that each and every attack by Israel is not a violation of the ceasefire, but legitimate counter-terrorism.

There is no doubt of this whatsoever.

Lebanon can do nothing to monitor or prevent the reinforcement of Israeli positions in Southern Lebanon (spoiler – Israel has no intention of ever withdrawing) because the ceasefire stipulates not only that the Israeli army has sixty days’ leisure to leave Southern Lebanon, but that in that sixty days the Lebanese armed forces cannot enter the areas Israel is occupying: including not taking control of their own Southern border and thus they cannot check what troops and weapons Israel is moving across unopposed.

12. Upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities according to paragraph one, Israel will withdraw its forces in a phased manner south of the Blue Line, and in parallel the LAF will deploy to positions in the Southern Litani Area shown in the attached LAF Deployment Plan, and will commence the implementation of its obligations under the commitments, including the dismantling of unauthorised sites and infrastructure and confiscating unauthorised arms and related materiel. The Mechanism will co-ordinate execution by the Israel Defence Forces and LAF of the specific and detailed plan for the phased withdrawal and deployment in these areas, which should not exceed 60 days.

“The mechanism” comprises the United States, France and the United Nations through the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). But it is plainly the United States which is calling the shots. The United Nations “hosts” the mechanism, while the United States “chairs” it.

This distinction between “hosting” and “chairing” is a new one on me. It appears to mean that the United Nations will be permitted to make the tea.

At para 11 the Agreement states that the Lebanese Armed Forces will “upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities” deploy troops to control all border crossings, but this is immediately negated by para 12 which stipulates the LAF will only enter the Israeli-controlled area – including the border – in a phased manner over sixty days.

What the LAF will do instead is set up a new Southern Lebanese border along the Litani river. That is the practical meaning of para 11. It is in effect a new border, and the Israelis control to the South of it

In addition, the LAF will deploy forces, set road blocks and checkpoints on all the roads and bridges along the line delineating the Southern Litani Area.

This is why the day before the ceasefire, the Israelis flew in a platoon of special forces for a few seconds of photo opportunity on the Litani River, so they could claim their armed forces had reached to there.

The United States holds all of the cards. The Lebanese Armed Forces are the only army I can think of in modern history which “remained neutral” when their country was invaded. The Lebanese Armed Forces are literally in the pay of the United States.

This is a complex country. The truth is that the majority of the soldiers of the Lebanese Army would in fact defend their country against Israel given half a chance, while their leadership has other ideas entirely and has US-backed political ambitions.

The United States is a party to the conflict. The bombs falling on Lebanese heads are American bombs, dropping from American planes. The United States is put in charge of the “peace” by this Agreement. The current US imperial hegemon is having its coat carried by the former colonial power France, in exchange for which honour France granted immunity to Netanyahu for war crimes.

People in Lebanon are desperate for peace. It is at United States insistence that Lebanon has no air defences – historically the USA insisted on removal of those given by Syria, and the USA has ensured they were never replaced. The USA is holding Lebanon down for Israel to violate.

The United States wants to see Lebanon divided, weak and at the mercy of Israel, and wants to see a reduction of the Shia population. The second-largest US Embassy in the world is being built here as a hub of regional influence, and on the day the ceasefire came into force the USA and Israel activated the attack on Aleppo by their proxy army in Syria.

Hezbollah is not officially a party to the Ceasefire Agreement, which is between states, but is the largest political party in the Lebanese parliament and a member of Lebanon’s coalition government. Hezbollah must therefore have agreed to the ceasefire deal. They have been desperate to portray this agreement as a victory, the confirmation that they fought off the Israeli invasion of Southern Lebanon.

We should not forget that well within living memory Israel occupied and held Beirut, with US and French support. So I fully understand that preventing that from happening again is an achievement. It is still more of an achievement given Hezbollah’s major losses in assassinated leadership, and crippled personnel from the terrorist pager attacks.

But this ceasefire agreement gives away any good result from the fighting.

Israel has shown that it has both the ability and the will to devastate Lebanon from the air, just as it has devastated Gaza. It has shown it will attack the same life-sustaining infrastructure and commit widespread acts of brutality without compunction. Lebanon has seen that, like Gaza, it has no defences and that the international community will do nothing to stop the slaughter in the short term.

Israel has spent 72 hours blatantly violating the ceasefire without a word of protest from the Western powers. The moment anybody fires back a single shot, the USA and its satellites will voice outrage, heavy bombing of Beirut will recommence and Israel will start trying to advance again from its new upgraded Southern bases within Lebanon.

I see this happening sooner rather than later. Peace deals which entirely favour one side never last, barring effective extermination of the injured party, and that has not happened.

Yet. Here is a reminder of Israel’s capacity for morality.

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86 thoughts on “Lebanon’s Unbalanced Ceasefire Teeters on the Brink

1 2
    • Laguerre

      The other way of looking at this is that the Dems (not Biden himself obviously) are trying to force Trump into warmaking before the inauguration, because the neocons fear Trump won’t be warmongering enough. A widespread view, not mine in particular.

  • Harry Law

    I agree Craig this agreement is a disaster we must not forget that the new Leader of Hezbollah agreed with the cease fire as did the Iranians. The Israelis have levelled Gaza and killed over 200,000 civilians (the Lancet) with not a peep out of western nations. The Israelis have promised to do to Lebanon what they did to Gaza, they must know they will get away with that as well. None of the ‘arc of resistance’ can stop the IAF at 30,000 ft, only Iran has that capability, but they are also in agreement with the ceasefire. Professor Marandi – usually a wise commentator – thinks Iran will attack Israel shortly, I do not think they will; I hope I am wrong. In my opinion, Hezbollah refused to attack the lifeblood of Israel, Haifa (its major port) less than 20 miles from the Lebanese border, and also vulnerable power stations etc., WHY? It’s true, damage was done to Israeli infrastructure in the North of Israel, but nothing Uncle Sam cannot make up for. Hezbollah seem to believe a ceasefire is preferable to the destruction of Lebanon; who am I to argue with them, they want to live? But do they want to live as slaves of US/Israel?

    • Squeeth

      “None of the ‘arc of resistance’ can stop the IAF at 30,000 ft”

      Let’s hope that it won’t only be the zionist antisemites that will be reorganising and rearming.

    • Aule

      > Hezbollah refused to attack the lifeblood of Israel, Haifa (its major port) less than 20 miles from the Lebanese border, and also vulnerable power stations etc.

      This is just straight up not true. Rockets were shot at Haifa often, they were just all intercepted with a couple exceptions. The port is extremely well defended.

      They mostly were shooting at closer and less defended targets, but even areas south of Haifa were occasionally shot at. It’s just the concentration of AA measures and predictable long flight paths made the relatively uncomplicated rockets and drones relatively easy to defend against.

  • Wilshire

    And, fade to black. What a brilliant video, thanks to Niels… We must all consider your wise warnings, in particular when it comes to Christian Zionists. Many of us may candidly ignore this issue, but it’s certainly a growing problem in the west, with msm propaganda as a major contributor.
    As to the ceasefire, obviously it will be only partially implemented. But the clear message is that everything will be ready for President Trump to be the real peacemaker in 60 days, whatever the price may be. And the future US Embassy bears a faint resemblance with Mar-A-Lago.

  • Harry Law

    NATO state Turkey is behind the HTS take over of Aleppo it is claimed they are marching on Hama, in the video below Professor Jeffrey Sachs explains to his disbelieving Hosts on MNSBC who was behind it in 2015. No Guesses who?
    Here is Professor Jeffrey Sachs on Morning Joe calmly explaining how Obama deployed the Brennan CIA in a regime change op to begin the Syrian Civil War that led to the rise of ISIS
    https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1862934557332304075?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1862934557332304075%7Ctwgr%5Eedf9e3f6296bdac4155a3f1f4542cbf80e857c71%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Frussian-jets-support-syrian-counteroffensive-after-jihadist-insurgents-capture-aleppo

    • Harry Law

      Here is the CIA operation Jeffrey Sachs spoke about….. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore
      “Timber Sycamore was a classified weapons supply and training program run by the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and supported by the United Kingdom and some Arab intelligence services, including Saudi intelligence. The aim of the programme was to remove Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power”.

  • glenn_nl

    Thank you for this reporting. Bravely and sincerely done.

    It’s never been so apparent to me as over the past year – our “western democracies” are evil. They probably always were, fools like me gave our representatives the benefit of the doubt too often. The “sanctity of life” crowd we heard so much from in recent days in the UK don’t actually give as much as a tinker’s cuss about lives. At least, not the wrong sort of people’s lives.

    Any defence against Israeli terrorism is, with the required doublethink, terrorism against Israeli self defence. A complete and utter inversion of the truth.

    Support for the terrorism and genocide perpetrated by Israel is good, righteous and a necessary thing to do. Telling verifiable truth, with evidence, is supporting terrorists.

    Get your doublethink skills in good working order, citizens – your liberty, such as it is, depends on it.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    This is what I just posted over at Ismaele’s GeoPolitiQ Substack article:

    Response to Ismaele’s GeoPoplitiQ “The difference between Hezbollah and the Israeli and Western armies”

    I am utterly unhappy with Qassem’s speech. Frankly, it was bullshit.

    Hezbollah promised to keep the pressure on Israel until the Gaza genocide was stopped. That did not happen. Plain and simple.

    Also, it’s mealy-mouthed to say “we accept the ceasefire, but our resistance continues.” Exactly HOW is that done? Especially when it requires Hezbollah to do what Israel has always wanted – move north of the Litani River.

    Also, it’s utterly stupid of Hezbollah to allow Israel to divert its resources to Syria, as if that’s going to help Hezbollah or the Palestinians.

    It’s also stupid because if Hezbollah thinks Israel and the US neocons are going to be satisfied with this lame notion of “preventing Hezbollah from re-arming”, they’re delusional.

    Ex-Navy SEAL Richard Marcinko once quoted a Chinese general as saying, “Always treat the enemy as the enemy because he will invariably treat you that way.”

    All Hezbollah has done is given Israel breathing room to escalate the war in other areas and to regroup and re-orient – which is something you never do in war.

    Pathetic. Hezbollah should be ashamed of itself. I suspect Nasrallah would never have agreed to this.

    Qassem should be removed and replaced by someone a bit more hard line.

    • Johnny Conspiranoid

      Surely Hezbollah could have done more with their rockets to stop the aircraft from flying, by attacking airfields, logistics centers and supply roads. say.

    • Squeeth

      “All Hezbollah has done is given Israel breathing room to escalate the war in other areas and to regroup and re-orient[ate]”

      I hope you’re wrong and they are waiting for some Russian SAMs but I’m not optimistic. If the zionazis can force a one-sided ceasefire by massacring civilians, there’s no hope for Lebanon.

  • Crispa

    The church video is as poignant as they can be. Sad and saddening.
    I am just wondering if the USA government and its allies will follow the logic of its treatment of Hamas and Hezbollah as proscribed organisations, which as the article points out can be used to rationalise breaching the ceasefire at any time, by condemning the hardly coincidental actions of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Aleppo. Somehow I doubt it and as the BBC website describes them they will be simply treated as good – guy “rebels” against the “hated” Assad regime. I am not bursting a gut in anticipation of hearing Starmer speak out against their insurgency or of supporting Syria’s right to defend itself. He might be reminded of course of his own government’s proscription order as on its website.
    “Al Qa’ida (AQ) – Proscribed March 2001
    Inspired and led by Usama Bin Laden, its aims are the expulsion of Western forces from Saudi Arabia, the destruction of Israel and the end of Western influence in the Muslim world.
    The government laid Orders, in July 2013 December 2016 and May 2017, which provided that the “al-Nusrah Front (ANF)”, “Jabhat al-Nusrah li-ahl al Sham”, “Jabhat Fatah al-Sham” and “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” should be treated as alternative names for the organisation which is already proscribed under the name Al Qa’ida”.

    • glenn_nl

      Yeah, it doesn’t seem to be enthusiastic about genocide! No endorsement about killing innocent people, nothing. Tsck tsck.

      That’s definitely anti-Israeil these days.

      You are absolutely correct!

    • M.J.

      You might benefit from reading Avigail Abarbanel’s book of autobiographical essays Beyond Tribal Loyalties, Miko Peled’s autobiography The General’s Son, and Ilan Pappé’s autobiography Out of the Frame. All of them natural-born Israelis, and Peled virtually Israeli royalty, with his father a General of the 1967 war, and his grandfather a signatory of Israel’s declaration of independence.

  • frankywiggles

    The capitulation of Lebanon and Hezbollah is surely informed by the unconditional support they have seen the West provide for the Gaza Genocide. They know the Israelis would have been permitted to go on bombing Beirut and other cities into new Gazas with total impunity and with a ceaseless supply of Western arms and components. They know there was nothing surer under the rules-based international order.

    • Stevie Boy

      Yes, but the killing hasn’t stopped and part of Lebanon has been stolen. This is only the beginning, like Palestine 75 years ago. If the Israelis (and americans) are not ejected, completely, Lebanon is doomed.

  • Jack

    The Lebanese leaders are awfully treasonous, they obviously watch the israeli massacring of their own nation through the sectarian lens – getting rid of the political force of Hezbollah/Shia/Iran axis no matter what. How many times have this happened in Lebanese history by now? What did Lebanon gain from selling themselves out? Nothing, but time and time again the Lebanese use foreign powers to target their alleged political enemies just to win some shallow political power. These corrupt leaders seems to believe they will get respect, approval by the west by committing to these corrupt ways but they are obviously not realizing that they are pawns, they are slaves to the israelis, americans which look down upon them.

    Back in 2010 Wikileaks unveiled some of the corrupt ways of the, often, pro-israel/US sunni Lebanese leadership. These headlines could have been written today:
    Lebanon ‘gave Israel army tips’ on how to target Hezbollah and how they urged Israel not to target Christian areas
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/10/israel-instructs-diplomats-to-support-saudis-cable
    Lebanon told allies of Hezbollah’s secret network, WikiLeaks shows
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/05/lebanon-warned-allies-hezbollah-telecoms
    WikiLeaks cables: Saudis proposed Arab force to invade Lebanon
    Foreign minister wanted US, Nato and UN backing for offensive to end Iranian-backed Hezbollah’s siege of government

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/07/wikileaks-saudi-arab-invasion-lebanon
    WikiLeaks: Geagea Says Turning Hizbullah into Internal Problem Key to Disarming it
    https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/4242-wikileaks-geagea-says-turning-hizbullah-into-internal-problem-key-to-disarming-it

  • Harry Law

    This thrust into Syria is a CIA-inspired move to regime change Assad. It is a process which has taken many years. Seymour Hersh first wrote about it in a New York Times article in 2007 called ‘the Redirection’:
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
    Then the CIA partnered with radical Sunny groups against Iranian influence in Lebanon and Syria with the help of Saudi Arabia. At the time, the US was fostering bad relations between the Saudis (Sunni) and the Iranians and their proxies in Iraq and Lebanon (Shia). This has been a US-led proxy war for a long time. The ‘Timber Sycamore’ assault I linked to upthread is but one more attempt at regime change now continuing. The moral of the story is the US will never give up against Iran/Russia, so the Russians would be foolish to ‘freeze’ the conflict in Ukraine, knowing that to do so would only set the stage for another round in the near future. This re-igniting of the Syrian insurgency is proof positive that the US must be decisively defeated in Ukraine. Unless the radical Islamists are defeated comprehensively in Syria, they could easily overpower Lebanon with the help of Israel/US, thus assuring a US/Israel Imperium in the middle east for a long time.

  • M.J.

    Sent this sad video with its disturbing report of paramedics being deliberately targeted, to my MP & other people.
    Since the Israelis seem to have broken the ceasefire, we might hope to find out eg from EI whether there will be retaliation in coming days, if they attempt to repeat their invasion of Lebanon.

  • Jack

    Another powerful video, message Craig, very impressive. The destruction of not only mosques but christian churches. Just another proof how hateful Israel is, how arrogant Israel is. Just imagine if Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran etc deliberately destroyed synagogues like this. Such acts would be labeled antisemitic, but when Israel raze mosques, churches, it is not even reported in the west. It is so sick..

    ” Israel destroyed 79% of mosques, 3 churches in Gaza during its genocidal war against Palestinians, says ministry”
    Along with 814 mosques flattened, another 148 damaged, 3 churches were also destroyed, and 19 of 60 cemeteries deliberately targeted, says Ministry of Religious Affairs in Gaza
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-destroyed-79-of-mosques-3-churches-in-gaza-during-its-genocidal-war-against-palestinians-says-ministry/3352251

  • ronan1882

    Yanks are the key to it all.

    Biden still has the power to end this genocide if he chooses to do so.

    Biden doesn’t want to end the killing.

    Harris doesn’t want to end the killing.

    The blood of all the murdered children is on their hands.

    They should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.

    • Wilshire

      Exactly. Yankee Go Home! As our grandparents used to chant…
      But only 50 days to go, before a brave new world order begins, with Trump the Return. Not a rules-based order, but rather a family-based plutocracy. The ceasefire in Lebanon may be changed into something more permanent, with the nomination to the post of Special Advisor to the Middle East of Massad Boulos, the father-in-law to Tiffany. While Charles Kushner, Ivanka’s father-in-law, is nominated US Ambassador to France. The President-Elect loves both family values and billionaires. Considering Elon Musk, for his part, already has more than 12 children, the dynasty sounds promising…

      • ronan1882

        Biden’s string pulling on behalf of family has been equally corrupt and brazen. As witnessed yet again today.

        But those are the very least of the crimes that racist scumbags are happy to pardon him for.

        • Wilshire

          Correct. I’m afraid the writing was on the wall. And as the saying goes, the grass is always greener… or vice versa!
          Honestly, I cannot seriously imagine the US of A with a trustworthy president in the foreseeable future. But with the combined powers of the Dollar and the military, the country still makes the rules, even though they are continually trampled. So sad…
          Fortunately, we can all relieve our frustration on blog forums like this, and call our contradictors names, like in a schoolyard! It’s the one who says who is.

  • Robert Dyson

    Although there will be a lot of death and destruction on the way the US & Israel are destroying themselves. The global balance of power has changed. The only risk is nuclear war. I think this is why both Russia and Iran are cautious.

    • MR MARK CUTTS

      Robert Dyson – I agree. Lot of mouthing off in the US but not much mouthing off from Trump. Which is unusual.

      The Samson Option now looks like being possibly applied to the US never mind Israel as that’s exactly what WWIII means. Of course The Europeans are invited into that option as well.

      In Syria another Russian ally is under fire and Iraq is a powder keg too, so this is a bit like The Kursk adventure. Not sure whether it is a foray or an actual provocation so as that Iran becomes more deeply involved in it all.

      At the moment my opinion is that Hezbollah were the proxy missile firers into Northern and Central Israel and the theory that they have been repelled seems untrue. Not on the ground as far as I can see but they have no missile defence system but Iran has.

      60 days is another cynical fait accompli for Trump to consider and the question is whether he may not like it but has to agree to it?

      It is a Scorched Earth Policy/Legacy not really based on Realpolitik – just the spite of children in the World Playground. Only showing just how nice a chap Biden is/was as far as body counts go in Ukraine or Gaza and Lebanon.

      As usual events will inform us more but I truly believe the aim of Israel is to provoke Iran into doing something very big. Then the Spoilt Brat nephew can demand that they both (actually the US will – they will follow) into trying to beat Iran and use the opportunity to expand further. They should remember that Iran has never dis-armed as Iraq did. It’s not necessarily a certain victory – even for the US.

      • Brian Red

        the aim of Israel is to provoke Iran into doing something very big

        That would be a means, not an aim.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if the terrorist state’s assault on Lebanon was a distraction from Gaza and meant to wreck secret talks for a ceasefire in that other theatre.

        The truth is that Iran is not a threat to the terrorist state and never has been.

        As a regional and mini version of the Samson Option there is the red heifer card which could be played at short notice. It would set much of the Muslim world alight.

        Saddam Hussein told the other Arab powers “I’m being removed by the USA, but you’ll be removed by your own populations”. Maybe he’ll be proved right.

        The “Netanyahu doctrine” of “the west must unite in defence of Israel because Iran is such a terrible threat” may segue into something else or at least be updated, as strategic doctrines are.

        The demonisation in Britain anyway has been focused on Russia for several years now.

      • Stevie Boy

        Iran is not Iraq and I suspect the iranian people would rise up against the USA/Israeli invaders. Plus, does the USA actually have enough arms to support a real, sustained war against a serious foe? Also, Iran is important to Russia so their role is not clear. That’s not to say that the genocidal fascists won’t attempt something but ‘victory’ is very unlikely.

  • Brian Red

    Israel has also used the ‘ceasefire’ to advance its forces including tanks into towns and villages from which they had been repulsed and which Israel could not take by fighting (…) Israel in fact is treating the ‘ceasefire’ as unconditional surrender.

    Hezbollah shouldn’t have agreed to let the USA burger munchers be involved.

    https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1437268/cease-fire-us-guarantee-letter-to-israel-leaked-to-israeli-media.html

    Hezbollah should have told the Israelis in public “You are a bunch of terrorist c***s, but in order to save more innocents from your terror we are willing to negotiate with you – but we’ll do it with you, not with your burger munching lackeys as mediators.”

    It’s not as if there aren’t other states that can mediate. Although maybe not Sweden any more. (Imagine if China and Russia agreed to be guarantors – that’d be the day.)

    But…drug$ are drug$…

    • Wilshire

      We live in hope.
      I have this funny feeling ceasefire in Lebanon is mainly a smooth transition to warfare in Syria.
      And it’s not too late for reporters to swap locations. Presumably the show will go on for a while.
      Beyond Xmas, but we can still cross ourselves like Craig earnestly did on his latest clip

    • Brian Red

      He graphically explained how, “everything squirts out” from under the bulldozer.

      Sounds like another Sabra and Chatila. But we’re not in the 1980s and this time, the soldiers will be whooping it up taking photos with their mobile phones. They aren’t like readers of this blog, almost all of whom will think such an image is obscenely anti-humane and revolting.

      Yes there have been some suicides of Zionist soldiers. Maybe they got some bad drugs. You wouldn’t expect their mothers to mention it to the hacks. That’s if they even knew about it.

      How many suicides were there in the SS? Inhumanity is inhumanity.

      The Israeli military know their psychology.

      Those from rich families who say they’re conscientious objectors are analysed and usually not required to go where there’s heat in the first place.

      Many Zionist soldiers after their military service go to far-flung parts of the world to rape, get off their heads on drugs, and take part in criminal scams to make themselves some money. That is encouraged by the army.

      Morale in this particular army plummeting inexorably downwards is extremely unlikely. No it’s not about to collapse.

      Asa is a good lad but I wonder how much he’s read on stuff like crowd psychology or “killology”. This isn’t like WW1 with the friendly football matches (western front), or Russian peasants wanting to go back to the village (eastern front), or Vietnam with the “fragging” of the unit leaders.

      • Brian Red

        How many mothers of fallen Zionist soldiers say “I’m so sorry I raised him to be an ultra-racist Nazi-type murderer, and I should have realised Gaza was comparable to a great big Auschwitz, and I hope this realisation spreads and Zionism gets banned the same way Nazism was, and then his death won’t be in vain”? Because Nazis aren’t born – they are made.

  • Brian Red

    France won’t be any more trouble for the Zionists in Lebanon than the ceasefire deal’s other mediator, the USA, will be.

    The ultra pro-Zionist National Rally (RN) in France (formerly the National Front) seems poised to bring down the government.

    There is no way the premiership will be given to Mélenchon or to anyone else in France Unbowed (LFI) and probably not to someone else in the New Popular Front (NFP) either, unless the elite can find a traitor in the latter who was a student at Sciences Po. Mélenchon supports the Palestinians, as also does Jeremy Corbyn, and such people are not allowed to become prime minister in any of the USA’s bumsniffer countries. (There’s a lesson there regarding the “parliamentary road” – and also about the consequences of keeping quiet about stuff you shouldn’t keep quiet about.)

    Possibilities in France between now and Jan-Feb include:
    1. New parliamentary election in France – or who knows, maybe a new presidential election before, at the same time, or afterwards.
    2. That disgusting guy in the Elysée palace slavers over Netanyahu’s army boots in public even more than Chirac and Hollande did.

    At the moment I would say the RN is likely to bring down the government. That doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a new parliamentary election. But if the alternative is to give some power to the LFI and to give any kind of public office to Mélenchon, then a new parliamentary election will be what there will be.

    It seems unlikely Macron will backtrack on the budget since it’s all about increasing taxes to pay off moneylenders, not to increase state spending in a way that helps the population. Basically the French population are being squeezed in a vice by international finance capital, but just try saying that in the French media. France has a government of moneylenders’ runners no less than Britain does.

    Always read the financial press. Unsurprisingly they are putting France on their front pages. They are currently two-tracking between asking with innocent faces “Will France go like Greece?” and “Don’t read too much into bond yields – France won’t go like Greece.”

    So a good guess would be that France will go like Greece.

    This is on-topic for this header because military action by France in the Middle East seems a strong possibility – not as an independent power, because France isn’t anything like an independent power where the Middle East is concerned, but to spice up “politics” internal to France – and French military action has been ordered for this purpose before. Excitement for the 200 families – and with the result for people in Lebanon and possibly also Syria being “you just get killed or your house destroyed – OKAY?” (For those who don’t already know: the 200 families hate the Arabs with a vengeance.)

    • Wilshire

      You seem to know your French well. We’ll see what happens in the city of lights, but I doubt it will influence the situation in the ME.
      Besides, you also know there are (beyond 200 families) 50 ways to leave your loather…

      • Brian Red

        I was forgetting Article 12 of the constitution, which once the president has dissolved a parliament and a new one has been elected stops there being another parliamentary election for 12 months. AIUI this rule stays in operation even if a president resigns and a new president is elected.
        Wow. So no new parliamentary election until July 2025 or later.
        So maybe there are 50 ways to get rid of a president of the 5th Republic.
        Or perhaps even 50 ways to get rid of the 5th Republic.
        Appointing Barnier as PM didn’t work. Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
        Macron’s position seems to be very difficult.
        So not everything is going wrong in the world!

        Is the centre about to fall away? Mélenchon and Le Pen both want rid of Macron, but there’s no way they can form a GONU or go down the Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley route or agree wrt the Middle East.

        • Brian Red

          Perhaps Macron could follow in the footsteps of South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol.
          The theme song of Dec 2024 to Jan-Feb 2025 should be “another one bites the dust”.

          Countries being destabilised right now include Lebanon, Syria, Georgia, France, Britain, Germany, Moldavia, Romania, and the United States. Can’t be long until the Netherlands, Italy, and Canada join the list.

          I thought there might be better coverage in the FT than in the general USA and USA-bumsniffer MSM about ongoing events in S Korea, but nope. They too are keeping to the line of saying nothing more than “He’s declared martial law and banned political parties”, without saying what specifically the army under his command has tried to take over (if anything) and whether they’ve been successful.
          E.g. government buildings, legislature, streets, airports, TV and radio stations, internet companies, phone networks, banks, the main centre of Seoul, trade union offices, party offices, what exactly? All parts of the army are loyal, are they?

    • Republicofscotland

      Brian Red

      Speaking of the French.

      “Pro-Palestinian French journalist Marine Vlahovic has been found dead at her residence in Marseille, France, amid making a documentary about Israel’s genocidal war on the besieged Gaza Strip.

      The lifeless body of 39-year-old Vlahovic was found by her friends in her roof terrace on November 25, reported La Provence, a Marseille-based French-language daily newspaper on Wednesday.

      It added that Vlahovic’s friends became concerned when she didn’t respond to calls or messages, prompting them to visit her residence, where they found her dead.

      The police have already launched an investigation to determine the cause of her death.

      “The journalist was in the process of making a documentary about the genocide in Gaza and was preparing to reveal information about the genocidal army,” Leo, a French-speaking user, wrote on his account on the X about Vlahovic.”

      https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/02/738332/France-Marine-Vlahovic-Palestine-Gaza-Israel-Marseille-documentary-

    • tony

      Speaking of the Hungarians, article here about Orbán’s guru, Yoram Hazony, onetime speechwriter for Netanyahu and “euphemistically referred to as a “philosopher” of “nationalism” and “conservatism””. Takes a look at Protestant/Zio make-up.
      https://www.thepostil.com/victor-orban-and-zionism/

      Who knew Farage, Braverman and Orbán met earlier this year in Brussels at a Natcon conference!

      • Brian Red

        If (Spartan if) Nigel Farage has MAGA, the FSB, and the Zionists behind him, then he’s probably going places.
        This is even if “national conservative” sounds a bit ideological for a guy whose presentation is based on having a pint at Wetherspoons rather than morris dancing, reintroducing the national anthem in cinemas and theatres, compulsory military service, or reconquering Ireland.

        Other than using financial levers, how to destabilise a country politically when a general election isn’t due until 2029 and Genocide Keir just won 2/3 of Commons seats with 1/3 of the voteshare because 1/7 of the population voted for the send-em-back and stop-em-coming far right rather than for the conservatives, now under their second non-white leader in a row?

        My money would be on selling a perception of race riots and provoking street confrontations that can be manipulated in that direction.

        As for the Tories, they need a really obnoxious 40-something white pugilistic “faaack off” leader if they’re to turn it around. Problem is that he or she would need some amount of charm where the 60+ hate-filled, gammon, business-and-homeowner, thicko c***s who have long constituted “the membership” of the said party. Someone like Tommy Robinson couldn’t cut it at all.

        Where right-wing populism is concerned – whether Toryoid or Reformoid or something else – it’s probable we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

  • Republicofscotland

    Hezbollah has had enough of the Zionists attack – which are not meant to happen during a ceasefire.

    “Hezbollah says it has targeted an Israeli military site in the occupied Kfar Shouba hills of southern Lebanon in response to the regime’s repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement in the Arab country.”

    • Stevie Boy

      Snigger… Most lethal for whom ? Probably the Pilots.
      The F-35 is the perfect tool for Nazis to oppress militarily weaker foes (Gaza, Yemen).
      It is absolute shit up against any serious, militarily equal foe (Russia, China, Iran, Isle of Wight). All this time and money and the complete POS still doesn’t work properly or safely.

      • Lapsed Agnostic

        In case you missed it, Stevie, just over a month ago, several Israeli F-35’s flew over Iraq, entered Iranian airspace, destroyed numerous Iranian military targets including fairly sophisticated S-300 air defence systems, and then emerged completely unscathed to fly back to their bases in Israel. Not bad for a ‘complete POS’.

        • Stevie Boy

          Actually they didn’t enter Iranian airspace and they didn’t destroy anything, they only damaged stuff.
          The Israelis were totally terrified to enter Iranian airspace where they would have been destroyed, they fired their missiles from a safe distance away. This is all in the public domain so stop spreading lies in support of the Nazis. POS piloted by cowardly nazis, QED.

  • Jack

    US, UAE discussed lifting Assad sanctions to isolate Iran
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241202-us-uae-discussed-lifting-assad-sanctions-to-isolate-iran/

    Just another proof how sectarian the arab leaders really are. Iran is the driving force for everything these rotten arab leaders do.
    Iran have reached out its hand to these sunni, gulf leaders for years/decades trying to unify the region against just the development one see today in Lebanon, Gaza but only got the cold hand back.

    • Brian Red

      The UAE leaders are especially vile and there doesn’t seem to have been any question of them pulling out of the “Abraham accords” despite the scale of their Zionist partners’ crimes in Gaza.

      Assad in Syria isn’t even Muslim. The Alawites – like the Druze – believe in reincarnation.

  • Stevie Boy

    Maybe, some good news.
    “Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday, according to a statement issued by the Kremlin. The main focus of the conversation was on the “escalating situation” in the Syria.
    … They expressed “unconditional support” for steps taken by Damascus “to restore constitutional order and territorial integrity of the country.” Putin and Pezeshkian also stressed the importance of coordinating efforts within the framework of the ‘Astana format’ with the participation of Türkiye.”
    https://www.rt.com/news/608588-russia-iran-discuss-syria-escalation/

  • Brian Red

    “Syrian and Russian jets have intensified air attacks in Idlib city and positions in Aleppo as the government of President Bashar al-Assad tries to slow the advance of opposition fighters.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/2/syria-russia-forces-step-up-air-raids-in-a-bid-to-slow-opposition-advance

    “US military activates communication channel with Russia on Syria developments — Pentagon ”

    https://tass.com/world/1880999

    And now for some hot-pepper sauce:

    “The earliest inscription of “Jesus is God” has been discovered beneath the floor of a prison in Israel.
    The engraving, which is said to be 1,800 years old, was found by an inmate at the Megiddo prison.”

    https://www.gbnews.com/science/inscription-jesus-god-discovered-israel-megiddo-prison

    Also in Megiddo:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tel_Megiddo

    Thank Goddess the First Temple of Jerusalem didn’t exist on the physical plane (any more than the kingdom of David and Solomon did) and therefore if archaeologists fully explore under the Haram al-Sharif or “Temple Mount” they won’t find anything…

  • Anthony

    “Israel has spent 72 hours blatantly violating the ceasefire without a word of protest from the Western powers”.

    Yesterday the people’s Sir Keir became the first sitting UK Prime Minister to attend the Labour Friends of Israel annual lunch.

    He condemned the “sexual violence” of Hamas on October 7th, openly boasted of the RAF’s support of Israel and failed to mention at any point the Palestinian victims.

    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/starmer-tells-lfi-reception-release-of-hostages-number-one-item-for-a-gaza-ceasefire/

    • Stevie Boy

      The poor old, eternal victims of Israel are only defending themselves from the psychotic hordes of Arab babies. They have that right according to Herr Starmer. May Israel and all its friends burn in hell.

      • Anthony

        Yes good people, the very best of us, attacked for no reason other than vile antisemitism. It has greatly affected Sir Keir as he told the good people at the lunch yesterday, in a pained voice:

        “Innocent people targeted, taken hostage, murdered, just because they were Jewish!”

        He rightly also condemned the Houthis as terrorists, “who have attacked Israel and caused chaos to international shipping” for no reason at all other than vile antisemitism. Likewise Hezbollah, who suddenly started shelling Israel at the same time for the same vile reason. It has all been profoundly dismaying to a good man like Sir Keir.

        • Harry Law

          Starmer….“I will not turn a blind eye while Iran seeks to destabilise the Middle East. When Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles in April, the Labour Party stood with Israel, as our RAF shot down Iranian drones”
          What Starmer fails to mention is the Iranian attack was a justified retaliation after the Israelis bombed the Iranian Embassy complex in Syria killing 16 Iranian personnel, a grave war crime. David Cameron said at the time that if that had happened to a British Embassy the UK government would take serious action against the perpetrator. Cameron and Starmer are hypocrites.
          It goes without saying that Starmer fully supports the Neo con position on using Storm shadow missiles against Russian territory, a position which guarantees a justified response from Russia. Starmer is leading the UK into WW3 against Russia and Iran, they will quite rightly not stand idly by.

          • Stevie Boy

            Starmer: “I support Zionism without qualification”
            Starmer: “Israel had the right to defend herself and the right to withhold power and water from Palestinians.”
            Starmer’s wife, Victoria, comes from a liberal Zionist family that has members in Israel.
            “Though Starmer himself is not Jewish, his children are being raised Jewish and he says the family will continue to gather for Shabbat dinners while he is running the country. ”

            Definition: fifth columnist, noun
            1. Someone who belongs to a group that secretly undermines another organization.
            2. A member of a clandestine subversive organization who tries to help a potential invader.

  • Harry Law

    “Reflecting on the fight to transform the party from that under Jeremy Corbyn, Starmer said of the wider Labour movement: “This movement has returned to our history and heritage which are inseparable from the state of Israel and our Jewish family.” (Jewish News)
    Labour’s history and heritage does not include racism, ethnic cleansing, supremacism, torture and Genocide. Starmer is a bigoted piece of filth; he and his fellow Zionists will be utterly destroyed by the growing worldwide disgust with his murderous maniacal policies.

    • Harry Law

      Just to add to my comment above. During an interview with Nick Ferarri, of LBC News on 11th October 2023 at the Labour party conference in Albert Dock, Liverpool, Mr Ferrari posed questions to Starmer regarding Israel’s intention to commit grave war crimes, including collective punishment and the withholding of food, water and energy to approximately 2.3 million men, women and children of Gaza, in effect starving them to death.
      Mr Ferrari asked Mr Starmer, “A siege is appropriate? Cutting off power, cutting off water?” To which Mr Starmer replied “I think that Israel must have, does have, that right. It is an ongoing situation.” These are not remarks a Labour leader should make: they are the remarks of a Genocidal psychopath.

    • Jack

      And now Starmer could add al Qaeda as his friend, now we await for the claim that “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ” have the right to defend themselves:

      “Syria rebels appear to credit Israeli strikes on Hezbollah with aiding shock advance”
      Opposition figures speaking to Israeli TV say they love Jewish state and want to forge friendship
      https://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-rebels-appear-to-credit-israeli-strikes-on-hezbollah-with-aiding-shock-advance/

      Genocide in Gaza for 14 months, nah the gulf sunni regimes+west support anti-shia al qaeda affiliates instead.

  • Harry Law

    “Judicial Watch with a Freedom of Information Act request was able to obtain a (heavily redacted) copy of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) directive that initiated the creation of ISIS in 2012. The DIA report states,

    THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY [WHO] SUPPORT THE [SYRIAN] OPPOSITION . . . [SUPPORT] ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA . . . IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME . . .

    “The chemical attacks on Syrian citizens on 21 August 2013 was meant to justify lobbing cruise missiles into Syria. obama was ready, but Americans were not. And when the ploy was debunked by a 50-page dossier the Russians provided to the UN, they resorted to “Plan B”, which was the creation of ISIS by the DIA.”… https://www.globalresearch.ca/how-we-know-isis-was-made-in-the-usa-its-official-west-will-facilitate-rise-of-islamic-state-in-order-to-isolate-syrian-regime/5541837

  • Crispa

    Starting a ceasefire one day – clearly an unbalanced one – and opening up another front in what is essentially the same war is a clever move on someone’s part. To quote another Scottish author, “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive”
    Some blame Erdoğan and Turkey for opportunistically using HTS to batter against Syria – though what about their own Kurdish problem? Meanwhile, Israel is buying time to replenish its stocks but is happily using the Syrian diversion to continue its genocide in Palestine. And America of course is saying “not us, maties, we don’t support terrorists like HTS only the anti-Assad Kurds to put more pressure on Assad”.
    That they are the actually spider is supported by these observations from Colonel Cassad’s:
    “The leader of the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) terrorist organization*, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, has recently attracted considerable attention. Raised at Camp Bucca during the Iraq War, Javlani has featured prominently in American documentaries, including the PBS series ‘Frontline’.”
    (His) real name is Osama al-Abbasi al-Wahidi, was born in Deraa in northern Syria. His biography speaks of him as a CIA-recruited agent. —-
    Clever stuff indeed.

    • Stevie Boy

      Interesting historical background:
      “The United States, with occasional interruptions, has been interfering in the important Middle East nation of Syria for over 70 years, and today there are hundreds of American soldiers still present on Syrian soil. These realities are not well known.”
      https://www.globalresearch.ca/history-us-interference-syria-dating-late-1940s/5778756
      Interesting factoid: “CIA agent Miles Copeland”, friend of Kim Philby and father of Stewart Copeland, Police drummer.

      • Goose

        Murky indeed.

        The Assads were pictured dining in a restaurant in Old Damascus with the then US Secretary of State, John Kerry, and his wife Teresa Heinz, in 2013. The US likely gave him an ultimatum to drop relations with Iran, embrace the west and normalise relations with Israel, or else. And, my guess. is he likely refused.

        On August 21, 2013, the infamous Ghouta CW attack occurred, conveniently just as the weapon inspectors arrived. On 22nd of August – the morning after the horrific nighttime Ghouta attack – William Hague, the UK’s Foreign Secretary held a pre-arranged meeting with the Qataris at the FCDO.

        The Qataris are being given the full state visit treatment today – this despite Saudi Arabia and others accusing them of being the main funders of terrorist outrages in Syria.

        The truth is probably dark indeed.

    • Goose

      Owen Jones, it has to be said, has been quite good in highlighting Israel’s excessive use of force and violations of international law, but seems to naively believe the reignition of the Syrian civil war is totally spontaneous and unconnected to the wider conflict in the region. Does Jones realise or remember, Aleppo looked a lot like Gaza six years ago? The idea the population there, having rebuilt, want a blow-by-blow replay is absurd. These newly arrived foreign jihadist Sunni thugs, are rounding locals up and making them swear allegiance on threat of death.

      Jones regularly rightly accuses Israel of being a mafioso-esque state, guilty of international gangsterism, including but not limited to use of threats and extortion, yet believes the Syrian ‘rebellion’ flares up totally spontaneously, lol. As if the international Arab mercs of HTS. replete with new pick-up trucks, shiny new modern weaponry – including various anti-tank missiles – isn’t enough of a clue all is not what it appears to be in terms of spontaneity. A bigger clue is the fact all the UK state security mouthpieces, to be found in the Times and Telegraph, are rubbing their hands in glee at the prospect of Russia and Iran being ‘stretched’ defending Assad, while preoccupied in Ukraine. The distraction of Syria also takes some heat off Israel, they note.

      The west really have no moral compass and will use any grotesque grouping if it serves their geopolitical aims. Even Telegraph and Times readers in btl comments, have been appalled by these journos cheering on HTS and hoping for Assad’s removal, knowing what that would mean for Christians, Druze; Samaritans, Alawites et al. It seems they are finally seeing those who make foreign policy for what they are : near demonic warped types, who care not a jot about mass slaughter in furtherance of a greater Israel.

      • Goose

        I highlighted Owen Jones, because like him or loathe him, he’s probably the most influential voice (by followers) on social media who’s speaking out about Israel’s daily atrocities in Gaza and Lebanon. But even he shows where the the limits lie in our supposedly free speech celebrating/loving western countries; he’ll never question the narratives around Ukraine or Syria, or the narratives about Russia and China.
        For you can only dissent on one issue and remain ‘mainstream’. Just for dissenting on Israel, he’s revealed in recent days that’s he’s been classified as a ‘politically exposed person’ by UK financial institutions, presumably that’s a similar status to that which Farage endured? David Miller is wrong therefore, imho, in believing Jones is somehow fake. I personally think Jones’ naivety on other issues merely suggests he’s a victim of intense UK media conditioning, like so many others.

        • Brian Red

          @Goose – “you can only dissent on one issue and remain ‘mainstream’.

          I don’t participate in social media, but this sounds credible. Also the range of available single issues may be small, e.g. nothing to do with vaccination campaigns, or the real clout of the royal family, or elite boarding schools is on the list – and nothing that really says it about the medical fraternity and the state “health” racket. On boarding schools, I respect George Monbiot’s efforts as genuine and heartfelt but he doesn’t really stick the boot in. (Sorry George.) His criticism may even have less edge than Charles Spencer’s. When it really comes down to it, is there any more criticism of the regime in Britain than there is in say Saudi Arabia?

          Jones is definitely naive. I watched part of his interview with one of the leading figures in Extinction Rebellion and he asked “Wow, so you’re not just against poor wall insulation (or whatever it was), but you’re against capitalism as a whole”, and the guy said “Oh absolutely”, and he signalled “Wow” rather than “Retch”. I mean seriously.

          • Brian Red

            I mean he could have said “F*ck off back to Islington or Stroud with your ‘absolutely’, you d*ckhead and faker”, but oh no. He was like “Wow, how spiffing, this is like seriously impressive”.

            I could probably have a good go at wising OJ up if I met him.

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