Israel has intensified its air strikes on Lebanon and in particular on Beirut, ahead of a visit on Tuesday or Wednesday by US envoy Hochstein, at which he will press Lebanon to accept a US/Israeli ceasefire plan.
This plan is touted as being based on UNSCR 1701, but in fact represents its abnegation.
You may have noted that neoliberal politicians and media pundits, who ignore and denigrate every other UN Resolution on the Middle East, are suddenly very enthusiastic about UNSCR 1701. This is because it mandates withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to the north of the river Litani.
But it also mandates, at operative paragraph 3, that the Government of Lebanon must have full sovereignty over Southern Lebanon and that only the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL might operate there.
3. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon;
The US/Israeli ceasefire proposal directly contradicts this, by giving Israel the right to invade Southern Lebanon with ground forces whenever Israel considers it necessary, and by giving Israel permanent military overflight rights.
The US/Israeli proposal is therefore incompatible with UNSCR 1701.
These are direct intrusions on the sovereignty emphasised by UNSCR 1701. They are of course terms no self-respecting nation could possibly accept.
In order to try to force Lebanon to accept these humiliating terms, Israel has substantially intensified its bombing campaign throughout Lebanon these last two days. Yesterday in Beirut alone there were nineteen waves of airstrikes, in addition to airstrikes in Tyre, Baalbek and throughout the South.
A new development in Beirut today was a definite move to bomb in Christian, as well as Muslim, areas. If you take one thing away from this article today, I want you to understand this.
The narrative portrayed in Western media, that Lebanese Christians support Israel and are egging on the destruction of the Shia community, is completely false. Only a very small and unrepresentative minority of Christians, related to the thankfully declined fascist movement, think in this way.
The large majority of Christians, including the major Christian political parties and politicians, are as horrified as the rest of the world by the genocide in Gaza and still more horrified by Israel’s genocidal attack on Lebanon.
I have spent the last three weeks living among the Christian communities here and I have found this same view, from wealthy businessmen, to students, to shopkeepers, to the families of very senior politicians.
I should acknowledge that I have met a couple of young men in a bar who were pro-Israel, but that really is it. It is also the case that, certainly in Beirut, the large majority of Sunni Muslims, including the large Syrian refugee population, are extremely horrified by the genocide mostly of their fellow Sunni Muslims in Gaza and the West Bank, and they are very anti-Zionist indeed.
I understand that in the far northern areas and along the Jordanian border there are pockets of Saudi-influenced Salafist anti-Shia sectarians who do support Israel against Hezbollah, but I am happy to say I have not come across them and it is not an important viewpoint in Beirut. These are the ISIS/Al-Nusra/Al-Qaeda/FSA crowd of CIA puppets.
Extreme fringes aside, the overwhelming majority of the people of Lebanon are no different to the majority of people the world over, horrified by the scale and depravity of the Israeli assaults.
In attacking Lebanon, far from reigniting civil war as they intended, Israel and the US have helped to forge a strengthened multicultural Lebanese identity.
Israel is simply unable to make meaningful progress on the ground against Hezbollah or to hold border villages for longer than a brief orgy of looting and destruction. In consequence we will see a repeat of the genocide in Gaza, with the great bulk of massacres carried out by bombs and long-range artillery.
Plainly the Gaza template is already being followed. Over 220 medics and paramedics have been killed in Lebanon – a deliberate massacre of healthcare providers that repeats Israeli actions in Gaza and testifies to genocidal intention.
Israel killed every single one of these civil defense workers in Baalbek, Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/GRzEqU6n9E
— sarah (@sahouraxo) November 15, 2024
The United States has a huge amount of influence within Lebanon. The economy is thoroughly dollarised; there are McDonalds, Dominos and Dunkin’ Donuts everywhere you go; there is a massive General Motors dealership, and indeed the Lebanese seem to have a higher propensity to buy US vehicles and other US-manufactured goods, than Americans themselves do.
The United States is building its second-largest Embassy complex in the world in Lebanon, a country of only 5 million people. Plainly that is not what is seems – why does Lebanon need a much bigger US Embassy than Germany or Japan or Russia?
It is due to US influence that the Lebanese army remains neutral as its own country is both bombed and invaded, which is a unique way for an army to behave. The bombs falling today on Lebanese children are not only US-manufactured, but the US has paid for those bombs and given them to the Israelis to kill Lebanese with.
Hochstein arrives here as his country carries out mass killing of civilians through its colonial settler proxy. The Lebanese should throw shoes at him en masse.
I hope and trust that the dignity of Lebanon is to be upheld by its politicians and outweighs personal corruption, and that a sharp answer is given to this vicious charlatan Hochstein pretending to talk peace.
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“The United States is building its second largest Embassy complex in the world in Lebanon, a country of only 5 million people. Plainly that is not what is seems – why does Lebanon need a much bigger US Embassy than Germany or Japan or Russia?”
There may be a clue in the fact that the largest US embassy in the world is in Iraq, in Baghdad’s “Green Zone”. That’ll presumably be the model.
“I should acknowledge that I have met a couple of young men in a bar who were pro-Israel, but that really is it.”
Probably crack members of the PA’s GIS checking you out 🙂 (Joke.)
Final observation: every country has some citizens who are willing to sign up with the USA, who respect that country’s shitty culture, who have family members or friends who are dual citizens already, maybe attending US “schools”, etc. etc. This is certainly true in Russia, China, Cuba, Vietnam, and Palestine. If there’s an exception, perhaps it’s North Korea. Generally these wretches include
1. Some among the filthy rich traditional (i.e. inherited wealth) bourgeoisie who have one foot inside the country and another outside it, whether in the USA itself or maybe in Germany, Switzerland, Britain, wherever, and who have long thought mostly in US dollars. There is a lot to be said for the utility of the term “comprador”.
2. Pimps, drug dealers, loansharks and other such scum, who sadly tend to come to the fore in wars. (And who should IMHO be introduced to walls.)
Just a question, Craig. Yesterday I deactivated my Twitter/X account and signed up to BlueSky (at the suggestion of a pro Corbyn website) and have become aware that increasing numbers of my social media contacts are doing exactly the same or similar. Can I urge you to do the same or let us know why not and if/when you DO intend to do so? Cheers, pal, keep up the good work and stay safe.
Luckily, President Trump and his dream team will soon reign again in Washington, and in a few days all these issues will be resolved. In just about… 60 days!
What a coincidence. This is precisely the proposed duration of the ceasefire. Only very gullible spectators can pay any attention to the terms of UNSCR 1701. “It’s only a piece of paper”, like a former dictator used to say.
Hochstein, was born in Jerusalem, the child of American Jewish immigrants to Israel. He served in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prior to moving to Washington.
.
This ‘US Envoy’ might be a little bit biased given his background.
Or am I being Anti-Semitic for suggesting such a thing ?
It’s hard to imagine how the US could have any “independence”. How would it work? The State Department receiving communications from Hochstein and treating them as though they came from the government of Israel? OK but then who’s going to do their diplomacy for them in contacts with Israel?
A similar point could be made about Britain’s relations with the Holy See when the British ambassador is a Roman Catholic, but then again he isn’t always, and Britain AFAIAA doesn’t supply weapons to the Holy See, nor does it allow a Holy See company to supply security software for its military and civil nuclear sites. Stuff between the well-past-its-sellby-date British regime and the Holy See is likely to be mostly performative anyway. But the US regime is assisting with genocide on Zionist orders.
I would put it differently: Israel is conducting genocide on US orders.
I had a good think about your response.
Which way around, indeed.
I decided to go through some reliable sources and found this ‘Times of Israel’ publication boasting about how many Jews were appointed by Biden.
Why is there a disproportionate representation in high-level key areas of a minority of the population in America?
I’ve read murmurings of similar things in Trump’s proposed government, but only time will tell if they’re true.
The opening comment and list from the Times of Israel article:
« All the Jews Biden has tapped for top roles in his new administration
From secretary of state to attorney general, a diverse cross-section of American Jewry is set to fill seats at the incoming president’s Cabinet table and elsewhere in government.
• Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State
• David Cohen, CIA Deputy Director
• Merrick Garland, Attorney General
• Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence
• Ronald Klain, Chief of Staff
• Eric Lander, Office of Science and Technology Policy director
• Rachel Levine, deputy health secretary
• Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security
• Anne Neuberger, National Security Agency cybersecurity director
• Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary of state
• Janet Yellen, Treasury secretary. »
I’m genuinely shocked.
Are things as you state? Is it really America telling Israel what it can/cant/should/shouldn’t do?
Or is it the other way around?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/all-the-jews-biden-has-tapped-for-top-roles-in-his-new-administration/
As it happens I am rather with you on this. Capability, and conduct are highly persuasive. Yet the difficulty we have is identifying a concrete, evidenced, motive for the US to do this; and to explain – in the light of the rapid and essentially peicemeal developments after AAF/October 7th last year when the genocide plan was developed and direct US involvement. Speculation aside, that has not yet happened.
(It was in place in October – “The [Palestinian] people should be told that they have two choices; to stay and to starve, or to leave… I prefer to have these people be alive and survive but only by moving to Egypt. And if they don’t they will starve not because of the Israeli bombs but because there will be no water in Gaza. ” -Giora Eiland, October ’23, in Fathom Journal; Eiland was the presenter of The Generals Plan in April this year).
A glance at Hochstein’s Wikipedia page reveals the extent to which his career has involved oil and gas. I believe Israel’s attack on Gaza was at the urging of the US, which covers the oil and gas offshore from Gaza. I have read that American oil and gas companies have been negotiating for contracts that would also give them access to Poland gas offshore from Lebanon.
Well-written Craig.
Some people here want you to see sense and come home but it has just struck me that this is what you did when Salmond was at his show trial. Journalists did the Judas and you reported the truth. Oh and the weather’s still shite here.
Look here Mr Murray, you scare the hell out of me. Keep as safe as you can.
Looks like they’re feeling nearly ready for their war with China; the OK to start attritioning Russian targets with LR supported by US satellite targeting, the intervention of North Korea, the ongoing military build up in the South China sea, the Chinese beginning to pose a genuine military threat to Taiwan; all coming together. The Chinese seem to be saying you take down Iran we take down Taiwan. Mexican standoff with nukes.
If they can get away with destroying Iranian allies (Houti, Hezbollah and Hamas) without triggering the Big One, so much the better. That will help later. The appetite for risk is very high, especially as the Europeans seem to have been completely tamed. Envoys seem to be arriving carrying ultimatums – Starmer to meet Xi (first such meeting in six years), Hochstein to Lebanon. Are there others? G20 gives a lot of opportunities.
Trump’s election may mean that this is the high point, the best time to act. Trump’s supporters represent an isolationist movement, and Trump’s presidency is likely to be focussed internally and basically transactional, whereas the Hawks are fundamentally imperial and primarily ideological. Dumping a major war onto Trump as they leave the Oval Office would derail his domestic agenda.
Big fight in Washington to force the issue? The handover meeting with Biden and Trump must have been interesting; Trump was uncharacteristically reticent on its conclusion.
“The Chinese seem to be saying you take down Iran we take down Taiwan.”
I doubt it, although I’d agree that’s how superpower relations work. The war with Taiwan has already been won, without a shot having been fired since about 1958. (See Sun Tzu.)
But there may well be linkage between the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. It may be a case of the Zionists telling any non-servants in the US regime (if they can find any), “Let us do what we want or else we’ll help our guy Zelensky explode a radiological or nuclear weapon in a truck in Moscow”…and then who knows, the US says “OK, boss”, but the Zionists do it anyway, because 1) no subservience is ever enough and 2) if the world economy’s going to crash anyway, and you can control the timing, you’ve got it made – and isn’t that what control over levers is for?
This is a f***ing horrible scenario, but who seriously would say it’s especially unlikely in say the next year or so?
(An echo here of Stalin, who backed the creation of the State of Israel, had a bit of change of mind – and then look what happened to him.)
A large proportion of the mafia bosses (“oligarchs”) in Russia are Jewish. But not all. Putin should have banned Chabad. Maybe it’s still not too late.
It’s a funny old world. Whether or not WW3 breaks out kinda depends on whether the FSB and SVR are able and willing to prevent it……..and my guess would be they probably aren’t able.
My guess is that USA wants to shore up Lebanon against its decreasing authority in Iraq and with a Syria that is rising phoenix like out of the ashes of American regime change attempts and of course supported by Russia. It has the menace of the Yemen Houthis to contend with in the other side and of course if it can provide an internal battering ram against Hezbollah then it will hope to extend that to Iran. It does n’t sound as if Lebanon is as torn as it used to be in the days of the civil war so trojan horse tactics are probably on the American cards.
Very slightly off topic but still about killing a million+ in a neighbouring country.
I only discovered yesterday that it was Benjamin Netanyahu that testified to Congess that Saddam / Iraq had WMDs.
We all know that there was never any WMDs.
I’m late to the party but would like to know more. Anyone..?
Here’s what the Economist is telling its readers:
“Why financial markets are so oddly calm”
Well that’s a good question.
“One thing nobody thinks of Donald Trump’s return to the White House is that it will herald four years of quiet, predictable government. Here, then, is a puzzle for readers interested in the more abstract bits of finance. Why was Mr Trump’s re-election greeted by resounding drops in volatility all across the world’s most important markets?” …
“Apply some maths worked out in the 1970s by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, two economists, and you can work backwards, converting options prices into “implied volatility”. You now have the market’s collective judgment on how jumpy asset prices will be.” …
“ Investors, in other words, do not think Mr Trump’s presidency will be predictable. They think its unpredictability is unpriceable. ”
Or someone has bought vega or done something even more exotic…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeks_(finance)#Vega
…perhaps while those who aren’t at the very top but who nonetheless still control large amounts of money from the second division actually HAVE invested in decreasing volatility.
Most probably aren’t thinking about the next four years. They’re more likely to be thinking about the next ~4 weeks until the next “triple witching day” on 20 December 2024.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour
Capitalism and in particular “economic crashes” are about nothing if they aren’t about the centralisation and concentration of capital. Ask Karl Marx, or Elon Musk with his “doge coin”. Of course some who are very rich lose money in crashes. (How my heart bleeds.) They get it taken from them by those who are extremely rich, or ultra-extremely rich.
Meanwhile the gold price is a lot higher than a year ago, even if it has fallen since Trump won the election. Could be that large holders expected Trump to win the election.