A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world.
This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations, the smashing of all alcohol and the forced imposition of the veil on women in Aleppo now.
Yesterday US Warthog air-to-ground jets attacked and severely depleted reinforcements which were, at the invitation of the Syrian government, en route to Syria from Iraq. Constant, daily Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military infrastructure for months have been a major factor in the demoralisation and reduced capacity of the Syrian government’s Syrian Arab Army, which has simply evaporated in Aleppo and Hama.
It is very difficult to see the tide turning in Syria. The Russians now have either to massively reinforce their Syrian bases with ground troops or to evacuate them. Faced with the exigencies of Ukraine, they may do the latter, and it is reported that the Russian navy has already set sail from Tartus.
The speed of collapse of Syria has taken everybody by surprise. If the situation does not stabilise, Damascus could be besieged and ISIS back on the hills above the Bekaa valley within a week, given the speed of their advance and the short distances involved.
A renewed Israeli attack on Southern Lebanon to coincide with a Salafist invasion of the Bekaa Valley would then seem inevitable, as the Israelis would obviously wish their border with their new Taliban-style Greater Syrian neighbour to be as far North as possible. It could be a race for Beirut, unless the Americans have already organised who gets it.
It is no coincidence that the attack on Syria started the day of the Lebanon/Israel ceasefire. The jihadist forces do not want to be seen to be fighting alongside Israel, even though they are fighting forces which have been relentlessly bombed by Israel, and in the case of Hezbollah are exhausted from fighting Israel.
The Times of Israel has no compunction about saying the quiet part out loud, unlike the British media:
In fact Israeli media is giving a lot more truth about the Syrian rebel forces than British and American media just now. This is another article from the Times of Israel:
While HTS officially seceded from Al Qaeda in 2016, it remains a Salafi jihadi organization designated as a terror organization in the US, the EU and other countries, with tens of thousands of fighters.
Its sudden surge raises concerns that a potential takeover of Syria could transform it into an Islamist, Taliban-like regime – with repercussions for Israel at its south-western border. Others, however, see the offensive as a positive development for Israel and a further blow to the Iranian axis in the region.
Contrast this to the UK media, which from the Telegraph and Express to the Guardian has promoted the official narrative that not just the same organisations, but the same people responsible for mass torture and executions of non-Sunnis, including Western journalists, are now cuddly liberals.
Nowhere is this more obvious than the case of Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, sometimes spelt Al-Julani or Al-Golani, who is now being boosted throughout western media as a moderate leader. He was the deputy leader of ISIS, and the CIA actually has a $10 million bounty on his head! Yes, that is the same CIA which is funding and equipping him and giving him air support.
Supporters of the Syrian rebels still attempt to deny that they have Israeli and US support – despite the fact that almost a decade ago there was open Congressional testimony in the USA that, to that point, over half a billion dollars had been spent on assistance to Syrian rebel forces, and the Israelis have openly been providing medical and other services to the jihadists and effective air support.
One interesting consequence of this joint NATO/Israel support for the jihadist groups in Syria is a further perversion of domestic rule of law. To take the UK as an example, under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act it is illegal to state an opinion that supports, or may lead somebody else to support, a proscribed organisation.
The abuse of this provision by British police to persecute Palestinian supporters for allegedly encouraging support for proscribed organisations Hamas and Hezbollah is notorious, with even tangential alleged references leading to arrest. Sarah Wilkinson, Richard Medhurst, Asa Winstanley, Richard Barnard and myself are all notable victims, and the persecution has been greatly intensified by Keir Starmer.
Yet Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is also a proscribed group in the UK. But both British mainstream media and British Muslim outlets have been openly promoting and praising HTS for a week – frankly much more openly than I have ever witnessed anyone in the UK support Hamas and Hezbollah – and not a single person has been arrested or even warned by UK police.
That in itself is the strongest of indications that western security services are fully behind the current attack on Syria.
For the record, I think it is an appalling law, and nobody should be prosecuted for expressing an opinion either way. But the politically biased application of the law is undeniable.
When the entire corporate and state media in the West puts out a unified narrative that Syrians are overjoyed to be released by HTS from the tyranny of the Assad regime – and says nothing whatsoever of the accompanying torture and execution of Shias, and destruction of Christmas decorations and icons – it ought to be obvious to everybody where this is coming from.
Yet – and this is another UK domestic repercussion – a very substantial number of Muslims in the UK support HTS and the Syrian rebels, because of the funding pumped into UK mosques from Saudi and Emirate Salafist sources. This is allied to the UK security service influence also wielded through the mosques, both by sponsorship programmes and “think tanks” benefiting approved religious leaders, and by the execrable coercive Prevent programme.
UK Muslim outlets that have been ostensibly pro-Palestinian – like Middle East Eye and 5 Pillars – enthusiastically back Israel’s Syrian allies in ensuring the destruction of resistance to the genocide of the Palestinians. Al Jazeera alternates between items detailing dreadful massacre in Palestine, and items extolling the Syrian rebels bringing Israel-allied rule to Syria.
Among the mechanisms they employ to reconcile this is a refusal to acknowledge the vital role of Syria in enabling the supply of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. Which supply the jihadists have now cut off, to the absolute delight of Israel, and in conjunction with both Israeli and US air strikes.
In the final analysis, for many Sunni Muslims both in the Middle East and in the West, the pull seems to be stronger of sectarian hatred of the Shia and the imposition of Salafism, than preventing the ultimate destruction of the Palestinian nation.
I am not a Muslim. My Muslim friends happen to be almost entirely Sunni. I personally regard the continuing division over the leadership of the religion over a millennium ago as deeply unhelpful and a source of unnecessary continued hate.
But as a historian I do know that the western colonial powers have consciously and explicitly used the Sunni/Shia split for centuries to divide and rule. In the 1830’s, Alexander Burnes was writing reports on how to use the division in Sind between Shia rulers and Sunni populations to aid British colonial expansion.
On 12 May 1838, in his letter from Simla setting out his decision to launch the first British invasion of Afghanistan, British Governor General Lord Auckland included plans to exploit Shia/Sunni division in both Sind and Afghanistan to aid the British military attack.
The colonial powers have been doing it for centuries, Muslim communities keep falling for it, and the British and Americans are doing it right now to further their remodelling of the Middle East.
Simply put, many Sunni Muslims have been brainwashed into hating Shia Muslims more than they hate those currently committing genocide of an overwhelmingly Sunni population in Gaza.
I refer to the UK because I witnessed this first hand during the election campaign in Blackburn. But the same is true all over the Muslim world. Not one Sunni Muslim-led state has lifted a single finger to prevent the genocide of the Palestinians.
Their leadership is using anti-Shia sectarianism to maintain popular support for a de facto alliance with Israel against the only groups – Iran, Houthi and Hezbollah – which actually did attempt to give the Palestinians practical support in resistance. And against the Syrian government which facilitated supply.
The unspoken but very real bargain is this. The Sunni powers will accept the wiping out of the entire Palestinian nation and formation of Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia communities in Syria and Lebanon by Israel and forces backed by NATO (including Turkey).
There are, of course, contradictions in this grand alliance. The United States’ Kurdish allies in Iraq are unlikely to be happy with Turkey’s destruction of Kurdish groups in Syria, which is what Erdoğan gains from Turkey’s very active military role in toppling Syria – in addition to extending Turkish control of oilfields.
The Iran-friendly Iraqi government will have further difficulty with reconciling US continuing occupation of swathes of its country, as they realise they are the next target.
The Lebanese army is under control of the USA, and Hezbollah must have been greatly weakened to have agreed the disastrous ceasefire with Israel. Christian fascist militias traditionally allied to Israel are increasingly visible in parts of Beirut, though whether they would be stupid enough to make common cause with jihadists from the North may be open to question. But should Syria fall entirely to jihadist rule – which may happen fast – I do not rule out Lebanon following very quickly indeed, and being integrated into a Salafist Greater Syria.
How the Palestinians of Jordan would react to this disastrous turn of events, it is hard to be sure. The British puppet Hashemite Kingdom is the designated destination for ethnically cleansed West Bank Palestinians under the Greater Israel plan.
What this all potentially amounts to is the end of pluralism in the Levant and its replacement by supremacism. An ethno-supremacist Greater Israel and a religio-supremacist Salafist Greater Syria.
Unlike many readers, I have never been a fan of the Assad regime or blind to its human rights violations. But what it did undeniably do was maintain a pluralist state where the most amazing historical religious and community traditions – including Sunni (and many Sunni do support Assad), Shia, Alaouites, descendants of the first Christians, and speakers of Aramaic, the language of Jesus – were all able to co-exist.
The same is true of Lebanon.
What we are witnessing is the destruction of that and imposition of a Saudi-style rule. All the little cultural things that indicate pluralism – from Christmas trees to language classes to winemaking to women going unveiled – have just been destroyed in Aleppo and could be destroyed from Damascus to Beirut.
I do not pretend that there are not genuine liberal democrats among the opposition to Assad. But they have negligible military significance, and the idea that they would be influential in a new government is delusion.
In Israel, which pretended to be a pluralist state, the mask is off. The Muslim call to prayer has just been banned. Arab minority members of the Knesset have been suspended for criticising Netanyahu and genocide. More walls and gates are built every day, not just in unlawfully occupied territories but in the “state of Israel” itself, to enforce apartheid.
I confess I once had the impression that Hezbollah was itself a religio-supremacist organisation; the dress and style of its leadership look theocratic. Then I came here and visited places like Tyre, which has been under Hezbollah elected local government for decades, and found that swimwear and alcohol are allowed on the beach and the veil is optional, while there are completely unmolested Christian communities there.
I will never now see Gaza, but wonder if I might have been similarly surprised by Hamas rule.
It is the United States which is promoting the cause of religious extremism and of the end, all over the Middle East, of a societal pluralism similar to Western norms. That is of course a direct consequence of the United States being allied to both the two religio-supremacist centres of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
It is the USA which is destroying pluralism, and it is Iran and its allies which defend pluralism. I would not have seen this clearly had I not come here. But once seen, it is blindingly obvious.
Beirut 6 December 2024
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“because of the funding pumped into UK mosques from Saudi and Emirate Salafist sources.” Yes. This has actually been going on for a very long time. For example, Saudi provides textbooks for children’s education via mosques, and these textbooks are full of vile propaganda that supports the Saudi headchopping way of life. Children in the UK being brainwashed in full knowledge of the state and security services. Where was that ever going to lead to? Political bribes, child sexual exploitation, no go areas. But ‘we’ are never allowed to state the bleeding obvious, still!
Britain mirrors the world situation. I agree with Mr Murray’s analysis here; he probably doesn’t agree with mine.
Thank you Craig.
Using extremism produces instability and leads to failed states which are unable to make their way in the world being beset by civil violence and crime. The thing is that this isn’t against the aims of the west. Unaligned countries that could be aligned with Russia are, in their view, better off in constant turmoil rather than being ‘ceded’ to Russia. With Russia happy to do the same we are going to have yet more polarisation in the Middle East. This won’t just last for a generation; we’ll be lucky to see anything resembling peace for the next century..
El Dee
“. With Russia happy to do the same”
When has Russia done the same?
This article by Mr. Murray is so depressing because it is the most credible analysis. Even pro Syrian sources appear to deny the inevitable collapse with unfounded hope. I also wonder whether this fall of Syria to salafists is a mere transition. A familiar scenario happened in Afghanistan when the Taliban where used against the Soviet Union, then later found to be unacceptable. The west is using the Salafists as cat’s pawns to justify an eventual greater Israel, not a greater Salafists’ Syria.
El Dee, you’re probably making a very good point in your comment, but like Johnny I find it difficult to follow your argument. Could you please give us the plain English version? I’m sure we can agree with you.
It seemed perfectly plain to me. (This doesn’t imply that I agree with the part about Russia. That did surprise and baffle me, but its meaning, even though it seems entirely false, is perfectly clear.)
No, Maddison, “WE” are not likely to agree. You might – but if you do, it will be because you do not understand fully what is going on and what has happened in the past. The truth is that there is no answer to this problem because there are so many factions/groups that have risen over the decades that simply do not get on, and never will get on, that peace is only ever likely to blossom when there is nothing left to fight about.
No, not true El Dee, this is nothing to do with Russia. Don’t deflect from where this problem lies: USA/Israel.
Rather unduly alarmist. The SAA were in much worse shape in 2015. With no active allied help.
The HTS terrorists are not particularly numerous, they can wreak havoc, but taking and ruling the country is a big stretch. They also can’t replace losses of scarce trained manpower, reserves & fresh levys will be mostly ineffectual rabble.
The fate of ISIS the other pet Ali G Hadis of the Gulf States etc, is instructive here. Seemed impressive got.a lot of press, then got themselves effectively wiped out.
The Russians hardly need to send more than a paltry force to secure their bases, or more. A single brigade and a few more aircraft, from their reserve forces could do it. This wouldn’t affect the situation in Ukraine one iota.
As for Hezbollah the ceasefire might have more to do with easing Israeli bombardment on civilians for a time. The IDF ground forces also need a break from getting their teeth kicked in. The so-called “terms” of the ceasefire are a cynical sham a-la 2006.
Lebanon isn’t going to fall to HTS. The Shia, the Christian “fascists”, the Druze and current Sunni leaderships.
Ain’t giving up their power & wealth to serve or die. Under a half-assed, impoverished, failed state, fu*kwitted, bandit-ruled Takfiri pseudo-emirate.
Israel isn’t occupying southern Lebanon either. They tried and failed at that, back when they still had an army that could fight.
I agree with this analysis.
Laguerre
Others, many of whom are pro secular Assad as the least worst option, differ about his chances of survival. If the Syrian army won’t or can’t fight, Russia may think it’s a lost cause.
Do we have any estimate of HTS numbers?
And another unknown, is just who is behind those balaclavas? How many Turkish, Israeli; French US, UK special forces? They may be a more formidable fighting force than a simple head count suggests. All these countries have expressed a desire for Assad’s removal, Erdoğan doubling down today. Some of the fighting footage shows them using weaponry that jihadists wouldn’t have access to.
I also am uncertain about which way things are going to go, which is why I worded myself as I did: I agree with the analysis. The figure I heard was 20K for the numbers of HTS, which would appear to be confirmed by the reports of Aleppo emptying out of jihadis after the initial arrival. They must be seriously overstretched.
You can only postulate you did by totally ignoring that this is not an isolated incident in a sequence of events which farmers have carefully orchestrated and coordinated.
Some online, wrongly assert that the US and Israel can’t be behind this Syrian putsch, because Assad is weak, they like it that way, and therefore they want him to remain. But that belies his importance to Iran and Hezbollah, and his weakness is nothing compared to how weak a squabbling, ‘small arms’ HTS-led sectarian terror state would be.
The language in the west would change from the current freedom loving ‘diversity backing’ fighters, who are trying to remove a ‘brutal dictator’, to that of vile throat slitting terrorists, if and when it suits the agenda. The way the US/UK and Israel see Muslim populations as entirely expendable in pursuit of geopolitical goals is shocking to behold.
Goose
As if people have already forgotten the Taliban Afghan situation. The terrorists are a tool to overthrow the Assad government, throw Russia out of Syria – first to be “saved” by the West. And ultimately become part of Greater Israel.
@Urban – What’s your read of the Russian ships sailing out of Tartus?
See below, @Stevie Boy 16.31
Deployment into combat positions, making room for other shipping to dock and getting immediately useless assets out of harms way.
Overall, It looks like the Russians are moving some assets into Syria. Their aircraft & drone assets are active.
They’re hitting HTM assets in Idlib & those currently on the offensive. They mined and blew up some approaches to Homs, such as bridges.
The efforts seem to be focused, on halting and slowing HTM momentum and disrupting their command. If the terrorists get bogged down, thier disadvantages will start to tell.
The big thing, the headchoppers need. Is speed & momentum to carry them through. Grinding attritional battles will burn through their lightly-equipped forces too quickly.
If Hezbollah, Iran & Russia can scramble enough forces to stiffen a few units of the SAA who can actually fight, the true danger will be over.
Then the question of how to dig out Jihadi deadenders out of Hama arises. Aleppo might be a bigger issue due to location and HTS definitely wanting to hold it a-la ISIS in Mosul.
It’s not like the Russians are short of anything.
It’s an Interesting counterpoint UrbanFox, CM however is on the ground long enough to see the zeitgeist and his impression has the stink of truth of dead bodies under rubble about it.
However remember the sudden fall of Kherson…
(I’ll do that as a new post below)
Thank you Craig.
You write at the start of your article that the Syrian government, which I took to mean the Assad government, had invited the US airforce (Warthog jets) to bomb forces in Iraq they were going to make incursions into Syria. Is that correct?
What would be the Assad government’s rationale for allowing this? I thought that perhaps the Iraqi forces coming into Syria would be there to bolster the Assad government armed forces? In what way would it be better for the Assad government to enlist the support of the US airforce given they have spent so long trying to undertake regime change there? Sorry if I have misinterpreted or got things round the wrong way.
Given you are in Lebanon in what is currently a pluralistic country, do you think that the Lebanese population at large which has endured the massacres and Israeli bombing will allow the “ceasefire” to hold given the trajectory you outline?
Iran, Russia and China all have interests here. Do you think the greater Israel/Salafist Middle East can be constructed and maintained without disruption to oil supplies and a wider Middle East war? Big questions I know!
I have rephrased the sentence to remove any ambiguity. I was conscious an ambiguous interpretation was possible when writing, but thought nobody would go for the interpretation you cite. Oh well. The update is not ambiguous though less elegant.
Apologies. Thanks for clarifying.
My fault!
Very dark days for the M.E ahead – don’t the Sunni’s (the fanatical ones) realise that once the Shia population has been decimated that Nato will turn on them – it would appear religious hatred has overtaken logic.
With all this volatility in the region you must be extra careful – it would appear that things are moving fast with the western backed terrorists, the genocide committing Zionists/Turks and the Americans all attacking the Syrian army – I read that US military planes were strafing Syrian army forces on the ground in Syria.
Much of what ails the world today is down to US bellicose foreign policies – is it any wonder then that much of the world loathes America – and its minions such as the UK.
It will get worse before it gets better, and Biden is rushing to cause maximum damage before Trump ascends the throne. Trump is a complete unknown; whether he will support the current USA funded chaos that has economic repercussions for him is unclear. His cabinet picks are certainly 110% Israeli-supporting Zionists, so logically the USA agenda in the ME is going to be the Israeli agenda. Greater Israel, genocide in Gaza and Lebanon and attacks on Syria and Iran. Only Russia can contain the chaos and they need Iran and probably Syria. Gaza is gone and the West Bank will follow. The future is black.
@Stevie – “Only Russia can contain the chaos” – Agreed.
Trump will support a formal Israeli declaration of annexation. What territory this will cover is unclear. So is whether the declaration will be made before or after (or on!) 20 January.
If it’s made before 20 January, will Biden support it? Surely yes. Perhaps it will be made on 19 January. Cf. the law banning Catholics from becoming prime minister in Britain. Tony Blair who had been a Catholic for years kept it quiet but formally converted a day before he left office. Then the precedent was there and Boris Johnson later became PM without his religious denomination being an issue. Maybe Biden will say something but nobody will care much what it is.
Interesting that that health insurer c*** got whacked in NYC… (Did he have insurance? LOL)
Brian Red at 11:58 am … Your final sentence is irrelevant, unnecessary and disgusting.
One less to rape and pillage the NHS? These disgusting people need to realise that sometimes there are repercussions for their actions …
Note to journalists:
Make sure you call Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) “the rebels”, to make them sound cool.
Don’t call them terrorists or a split from Al Qaeda.
Don’t refer to the fact that the British government say
“‘Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’ should be treated as (an) alternative (name) for the organisation which is already proscribed under the name Al Qa’ida.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/proscribed-terror-groups-or-organisations–2/proscribed-terrorist-groups-or-organisations-accessible-version#list-of-proscribed-international-terrorist-groups
The fascist plan for a Greater Israel depends on taking control of Syrian airspace – like Britain 1940!
Syria may cease to exist as a state soon. As we saw in Libya, and before that in Iraq, the cowboy US is very good at destroying things, but has little interest in nation building and the what comes next? part.
The ragtag Sunni grouping that is HTS, led by al-Jolani, a Riyadh born, Saudi mercenary, may be strong enough to overthrow the unfairly ‘sanctions’-weakened, demoralised Assad army, but they’ll have no legitimacy, and, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, they’ll struggle to gain international recognition. Russia won’t recognise them or prop them up.
Western sponsors, who’ve supplied their expensive modern weaponry, will likely abandon them, and Syria will slide into murderous sectarianism while being at the mercy of Israel, Turkey and possibly Shia Iraq – backed by Iran, in carving what was Syria up. They’ve no air force and the US won’t want to openly acknowledge their sponsorship by enforcing their territorial integrity in the east. The US will likely quit Syria altogether, once again morbidly asserting mission accomplished.
The Syrians cheering on these foreign backed mercs, are cheering the likely destruction and end of their state.
Russia may defend Assad.
What we need here is a person knowledgeable about Alawite eschatology. (<- That's my piece of gallows humour for today.)
I've got no time for e.g. Sunni Muslims who say Shia or Ahmadiyya Muslims aren't Muslims, but the Alawites are not Shia and it's fair to say they're not Muslims. A sort of "let's look the other way and pretend" deal was done to keep Syria functioning. For a comparison, consider e.g. Steinerites who pretend they're Christians for some external audiences. You can’t be either a Muslim or a Christian if you believe in reincarnation. (What you can do is to say you’ll adopt the local religion tactically – or be seen sometimes to follow it – to keep the peace. Which is better than war of course, but in the interests of truth one might as well recognise what’s going on.)
Russia’s backing may not be enough now tho, because Syria is basically skint, and its soldiers, many of whom are Sunni, are demoralised and underpaid. They may refuse to even fight, as has happened in Aleppo and Hama, choosing instead to meekly surrender. And their equipment is old and no match for the modern drones, anti tank systems and MPADS, that HTS are mysteriously well-equipped with and trained to use effectively.
The US has obviously been siphoning off Syria’s oil wealth, and their productive land is off limits; and wider sanctions, including but not limited to, financial, have crippled the regime’s ability to raise funds internationally for rebuilding to re-establish order and control. Russia have this weird relationship with Israel ; whereby the Israelis regularly strike Syrian air fields, military infrastructure and invited Iranian forces in Syria, strikes tolerated by Russia through a coordination agreement. Netanyahu plays Putin for a fool, imho, maintaining cordial relations with Russia, while in reality being 100% pro-US. Israel has refused requests from Zelensky for assistance on numerous occasions, so as not to upset their relationship with Russia, with the US fully accepting and understanding Netanyahu’s cynical game of self-interest.
Putin knows that Jewish “oligarchs” in Russia could cause enormous trouble – huge megadeath civil war-type trouble that could go nuclear.
But one day he’ll tell them OK, bring it on, Chabad is banned, all private jets are grounded, make my day.
What they do in response or pre-emption may be a touch unpleasant.
Edit: today I learnt that Pavel Durov holds French, Russian, UAE, and Kittitian citizenships. (Go any further and he’ll be rivalling Ghislaine Maxwell.) Gotta wonder whether there’s a Telegram connection to the destabilisation operation being run against France.
Russian Israeli settlers are some of the most extreme voices in that country. It’s a sizeable electoral demographic in Israel too – at a million plus, and growing with flights arriving everyday. It’s one of the reasons Netanyahu hasn’t completely burnt bridges with the Kremlin, and probably why Putin doesn’t turn against Israel, as would make sense given their activities against Assad. Russia also has a weird frenemy relationship with Turkey. Erdogan has just today, called for HTS to march on Damascus unimpeded. Erdogan may find a Kurdish state on his doorstep at the end of this.
How foolish are Kurdish YPG leaders in giving their backing to HTS’s offensive?
Do they really think Erdoğan is going to play nice and grant them a state…utter madness. Trump tried to pull US forces out of NE Syria remember, in his last stint as president, but the heavily invested ‘deep state’ actors frustrated those attempts in the hope of weakening Assad by denying oil revenues, eventually completing their Obama era ‘regime change’ objective. If Trump fully removes that US protection from the Kurds, Erdoğan could do to them what Netanyahu has done to Gaza. Talk about, be careful what you wish for.
That assumes the US doesn’t impose a Kurdish state, hence why it seemingly contradicts my other comment.
If Assad falls, I really don’t know whether the US intention would be to bring into being a Kurdish state. And only the US could force Turkey to accept such a state. The long-suffering Kurds, attacked previously by ISIS and more recently Turkey, certainly deserve a state of their own. If the US simply quits Syria, I believe Turkey will likely stage a wider military invasion which will be catastrophic for the Kurds. Hope that makes sense.
The Kurds always back the wrong horse.
The Syrian Kurdish leaders are constrained by the Americans into doing what they’re told. There have been frequent stories about them wanting to do a deal with Asad, but they’re occupied and supported by American troops, even if they’re few now.
* The Israeli ban on the Muslim call to prayer is an extreme provocation. Let’s see how it runs through its first Friday, which is today. The key place is Al Aqsa in Jerusalem. The Zionists on previous occasions have stopped young and middle-aged men from attending Friday prayers there, but as far as I am aware they have never stopped prayers from taking place altogether, although IIRC they delayed them by 20 minutes during the Six Day War and formally apologised. (Yes – the Israelis – apologising for something! But that was then and this is now.) This is all about Jerusalem.
* The Jordanian king has been in Brussels meeting NATO foreign ministers, and Rutte has said that NATO will open an office in Amman soon. This suggests that NATO will have a role in facilitating another nakba and the creation of another concentration camp for survivors. Notwithstanding what we know about Russian commitments on the European front and their low level of support for Armenians when they were subjected to a further round of “clearance” by Azerbaijani (mostly Shia!) forces, it also suggests that the US and its bumsniffers fear Russia in the Middle East.
https://jordantimes.com/news/local/nato-liaison-office-amman-will-open-%E2%80%98soon%E2%80%99-%E2%80%93-secretary-general
This is a remarkable analysis, which I sincerely hope proves mistaken (though the destruction of pluralism in Aleppo is a cause for worry). What makes me doubtful is the apparent resilience of Hezbollah in the face of attempted invasion by Israel, as reported in the Electronic Intifada.
I’m still doubtful about whether Hezbollah would have agreed to such a ceasefire, whatever the Lebanese government said, unless they reserved the right to retaliate in the event of violations, which I understand have now happened. Hopefully the reports from EI from now till the end of the month will clarify matters further.
PS. Actually this report indicates that pluralism hasn’t been destroyed by HTS in Aleppo:
https://themedialine.org/top-stories/aleppos-christians-celebrate-christmas-amid-changing-leadership/
Also, I didn’t notice any word of praise for HTS in the Guardian article linked to in the main article, only factual reporting. Unless I missed it, of course, please correct me.
I fear you appear unable to discern propaganda when it stares you in the face. That story you quote is rubbish. And if you don’t get the propaganda framing of this in the Guardian:
Quote: I heard HTS and other groups are trying to reinstate the internet, but they’re just starting in one area and they might need time to expand as Aleppo is so big,” said Mahmoud. “I think it’s just a matter of time before more services are provided.”
He disliked seeing the fighters in pickup trucks patrolling the streets, but said he was yet to interact with them. Mahmoud felt reassured about the intentions of HTS – and its nominal political arm, the Salvation government, in Idlib – for governing Aleppo after he attended a speech given by an imam at a mosque in the central al-Mohafaza neighbourhood.
Standing in front of its bright blue tiles and polished stone archways, imam introduced himself as a returning preacher with long-held ties to the neighbourhood. End quote
Then I really can’t help you. Have you not wondered under whose auspices the Guardian and CNN are getting the access to do all these interviews with jihadists in Aleppo?
The problem is your naivetey kicks in selectively, when it supports your prejudice.
“Appalled” by genocide, but in love with the centrist-liberal politicians enabling it. (And the media who support them).
The remark about my inability to discern propaganda is ad hominem, so I will disregard it.
I don’t see why the story I cited is rubbish. Therefore it is not obvious to me that pluralism has ended in Aleppo, which in turn suggests that you may be mistaken about Al-Jolani.
I don’t recognise any ‘propaganda framing’ in the Guardian article in your quote, and so I don’t recognise any praise for HTS there.
If Al Jolani takes over Damascus we’ll find out soon enough whether your theory is true. But there may be anti-apartheid influences in the West that will also bring about change.
MJ
There are plenty of images online, of multi-lane tailbacks, as vehicles stream out of every major urban area HTS approach.
In the scenes on Western TV, those being used for western propaganda purposes, sure, there are a few dozen people surrounded by HTS fighters, with said fighters firing into the air and people cheering them on. But the buildings look eerily empty, and the streets look otherwise deserted, i.e., this isn’t universal rejoicing, this is staged propaganda for US and Western audiences. I’d imagine very few Syrians want Syria turned into Saudi Arabia without the oil wealth.
Ponder the fact that, if Russian or Chinese forces rolled into London, Washington, Berlin or Paris, they could muster a few dozen supporters cheering them on.
He said your inability to discern propaganda only kicks in selectively, when it supports your deeply pro-establishment prejudices.
What I frequently find surprising on this blog is that a vast majority of commentators, along with Craig Murray, continually dismiss the MSM as a source of disinformation, and explain that it should never be taken at face value, but simultaneously never ever stop from taking the Guardian, the BBC et al. as a reference, quoted ad nauseam.
This conundrum is perplexing. If I may just one second make a personal reference, please note that I haven’t read or watched any of these news outlets once in many months. So I do wonder why others always daily follow them if they despise them so much.
Anyway, we’re lucky to have an honest journalist in Beirut today, and why not in Damascus tomorrow. Thanks.
Madison, you make a good point: all of them are state mouthpieces and deserve to be shunned. I haven’t bothered with the print media since the Independent became the Inderelictependent twenty years ago. CommercialPrivateEquitybbc is what it says on the label. For Ukraine and Syria, I’d look at Sumo, Berletic, Moon of Alabama, some of the Judge Napolitano programmes and a few Jimmy Dores (he’s really gone off the boil), Weeb and Military Summary Channel. If anyone has others to suggest, please do.
It’s not that black and white. Of course the MSM isn’t 100% lies – no one here suggested that; that’d be silly. Domestic reporting is generally honest, but anything related to the spooks or foreign affairs and the lies flow freely.
It’s worth watching/reading occasionally to see how they’re manipulating their viewers/readers – plus it’s striking how once proud and fiercely independent news organisations, are now little more than incurious, grubby state mouthpieces. The emphasis has gone from investigations and reporting facts, to partisan opinion-shaping. Some of it is quite subtle, but when you know what you’re looking for (i.e. viewing it with cynicism), you’ll see the bias clearly.
“Domestic reporting is generally honest”
If you say so.
Madison
Sounds like somebody doesn’t want to see the disinformation of the BBC, Guardian etc highlighted.
The MSM often reports events correctly but interpretations of these events and especially editorials and anything with “verify” in the title is sheer propaganda. Of course you have to read these sources daily to know what the empire is teaching, there is no virtue in boasting of taking a blinkered approach.
Kevork Almassian at Syriana Analysis (YouTube) is excellent on Middle Eastern affairs and particularly on Syria. He’s a Syrian Armenian.
https://x.com/KevorkAlmassian
http://www.youtube.com/@SyrianaAnalysis
Squeeth et al,
I find that a good springboard is @GeromanAT – he does a great job of finding informative posts and translates to English.
As is the @SprinterFamily – though they were getting continuously banned and have had many lives!
Another newish to me this year has been ArnaudBernault on China.
There are a bunch on Telegram too.
Well worth watching is The Lavrov interview by TopCat (CIA Joe 90).
It is the RF talking as straight in English as they did before the SMO – it is the final ‘do you feel lucky punks?’ I for one am certainly in no doubt that one more bad move or push by our glory-boy soldiers and pirate admirals will result in a substantive response – to which we will only have a suicidal final response.
I doubt the Western MSM are giving that anywhere near as much coverage as their new found darling headchopper deepstate operative Greenmantle Jalani! Lol, back to the future of the heroic mujahadeen under Bin Laden…
PS. The LameStream media with its presstitute journalism is largely taken from the two major press agencies directing the Collective West’s daily propaganda agenda.
There are plenty of web and social media psyops going on as we can all see. The truth is generally needed to sell a lie or a cover-up, to be believable.
They also go on about Al Qaeda/HTS being on the US terrorist list as a way to discredit them and show how bad they are; but Hezbollah, who they support, is also on that list. It’s more (to them) about defending a simplified good guys/bad guys “narrative” at any cost.
I doubt Westerners would risk their precious hides. Unless the interview was a sit-down, with a ranking HTS leader at personal invite.
Ad-hoc street level is a no-no. Too much chance of getting killed, raped or kidnapped by some Ali G Hadi droogs, who aren’t “on message”.
That’s been the rule for “rebel areas” for over ten years. These “reports” are regurgitation of local propagandists, who can move freely.
Ex-diplomat indeed.
When Al-Jolani announced the change in name to HTS, he didn’t even pretend it would be different to Al Nusra or al-Qaeda. He praised the al-Qaeda leadership and quoted Osama bin Laden to support the name change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOJpzGws4mY
A bit of rebranding supported by the media is all it takes to promote public acceptance of Cuddly Qaeda or the moderate rebels or whatever they call them. 9/11 and the ‘war on terror’ supposedy against islamic extremists are long forgotten.
Recall the 911, false flag, axis of evil = Israel+Saudi+CIA.
The same axis currently in play in the ME.
It is hard to disagree with Craig’s analysis, the question is will the machinations of the present alliances defeat the axis of resistance made up of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinians and Iran and others all and backed by Russia [militarily] and China [economically? We have been here before with the western push to back the head choppers in Syria, culminating in the Salafi dash across the Syrian desert to capture Mosul. This was eventually put down by various Shia militias in Iraq with the assistance of Iranian forces. As Craig states we are at a crucial crossroads, in my opinion the ‘arc of resistance’ will not [cannot] fail in order for world peace to prevail.
Below is an article which proves US involvement in the earlier Salafist endeavours backed by Obama.
The DIA documents from 2012, finally released to Judicial Watch in 2015 demonstrated the close collaboration between the Obama – Hillary Clinton administration and terror groups in Syria. It explained that Al Qaida in Iraq and Islamic State Iraq was a US ally. Flynn spoke openly about it.
By threatening to pursue Flynn’s son if Flynn did not plead guilty to lying to the FBI, a secret deal was made with Flynn’s attorneys. Flynn was sacked from the job as national security advisor three years ago amid Russian collusion allegations.
The backdrop of the pursuit against general Michael Flynn is central to remember.
Flynn is the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency who openly admitted that the Obama administration deliberately used ISIS and terror groups such as Jabhat al Nusra in Syria to achieve its goals.
Flynn was very vocal about it. What happened was that Judicial Watch, the Washington watchdog that sues the government when suspecting corruption, had fought battles for years in court to have the DIA records of the Benghazi affair released.
The Defense Intelligence Report, dated August 12th, 2012 reveals the axis of alliance: “The Salafists, Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaida in Iraq are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria. The West, Gulf countries and Turkey support this opposition.”
The DIA documents from 2012, finally released to Judicial Watch in 2015 demonstrated the close collaboration between the Obama – Hillary Clinton administration and terror groups in Syria.
In essence, the Judicial Watch documents explained that Al Qaida in Iraq was a US ally.
The retrieved USA Defense Intelligence Report, dated August 12th, 2012 reveals the axis of alliance:
“The Salafists, Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaida in Iraq are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria. The West, Gulf countries and Turkey support this opposition.” https://hannenabintuherland.com/culturalanalysis/general-michael-flynn-was-set-up-by-fbi-after-calling-out-obama-working-with-al-qaida-in-syria/
General Flynn, explaining this, openly stated that the Obama administration used terror groups against Bashar al-Assad to win the war in Syria. Which the DIA report written as a memo to the White House also documented.
The Dar al Islam, effectively the Muslim-dominated world, was never a place of tolerance of difference. Islam as the Arabic implies requires submission from its adherents, total submission free of any doubt. Conformity of a rigid kind is the essential requirement, get that right and you know the extent of your personal freedoms. Citizenship is a matter of submission.
I was born into an ancient Syriac Catholic family the year the US and allies «liberated» Iraq. Saddam Hussein was no pussy cat, Christians had to mind their behavior, but our community, Catholic, Orthodox, Church of the East numbered around two million.
Now maybe 200k still remain.
The «liberators» were not the least interested in us. It seemed a surpise that there were Christians in the region and as for the Yazidi…
This blind spot as the patchwork of ethnicities and cultures in the Levant and surrounding regions persists.
I know I have left my ancestral homeland forever. None of my large extended family lives in Iraq.
Can we survive as a culture? We had some respite in al assad’s Syria.
A great ethnic cleansing hides in plain sight.
Turabdin,
When you say this:-
“ This blind spot as the patchwork of ethnicities and cultures in the Levant and surrounding regions persists.
I know I have left my ancestral homeland forever. None of my large extended family lives in Iraq.
Can we survive as a culture? We had some respite in al assad’s Syria.”
It seems to make clear that the Western professed ‘pluralism’ is the opposite of what is asserted in the mainstream.
Saddam and the Ayatollah may have a policy side to them which contradicts the US/Western official support of ‘freedom’ when self-interests are being pursued regardless of support of any ideological principles as pronounced to the world by the us/West.
Huh?
“the Muslim-dominated world, was never a place of tolerance of difference”.
If they didn’t tolerate difference, how did your family and Christian community survive over the centuries? If you had been Muslims in Christian Europe, you would have been forced to convert, or be killed or exiled. That didn’t happen in the Muslim world, very little.
Thank you, Craig. Heartbreaking reading … nauseating
and from Craig’s Twitter X – The Evil that is the BBC –
https://x.com/Hamza_a96/status/1864650545765499149/photo/1
Such Evil Hatred
Emanating from the West
Empathy Crying
Thank you Craig.
– It is the United States which is promoting the cause of religious extremism and of the end, all over the Middle East, of a societal pluralism similar to Western norms. That is of course a direct consequence of the United States being allied to both the two religio-supremacist centres of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
– It is the USA which is destroying pluralism, and it is Iran and its allies which defend pluralism. I would not have seen this clearly had I not come here. But once seen, it is blindingly obvious.
Still the same old Cold War story. Capitalism versus communism. The USA versus the USSR. Arab socialism (“Godless communism”) versus (Gulf) by-God’s-grace monarchism. The oil reserves. Iran remembers being a thriving democracy, before British Petroleum’s Operation Ajax.
Clark,
Is it not simply US/Western self-interests being pursued, while being disguised as calls for and support of ‘freedom.?
Have you noticed the US Democratic party committing genocide while affecting “empathy” for the victims?
Clark
Britam Defence is, or was, a military contractor. The Daily Mail famously lost a court case and had to pay damages after printing a story based on an email that suggested ‘Washington’ wanted to frame Assad for a CW attack. Because the information was obtained illegally (hacked server) the ruling went against the Mail.
When the Britam Defence server was hacked, some US site in 2012-13 illegally published all the spreadsheets showing sabotage operations they were involved in. Mainly carried out against Iran on behalf of KSA and it was staggering in terms of its extent. These are former UK special forces carrying out a dirty war against Iran on behalf of Gulf monarchies; presumably with the full support of the UK govt. The site published all the passports and biometrics of personnel – and guess what, they were mainly Ukrainian ex-special-forces.
Remember the ugly sectarian war in Iraq, all those car bombings with military grade explosives that killed dozens as they mingled in cities at night. Western involvement in the Middle East is a complete horror show.
This is why, despite not believing the Clerics in Iran are a particularly admirable bunch, I see them as less pernicious than their Wahhabist enemies. Iran didn’t ignite the sectarian strife in Iraq after Saddam’s minority Sunni Baathist party fell. Iran and the Shia more generally, have always been more sinned against, than sinning.
And in the 1980s, the US backed Saddam’s Iraq after they invaded Iran, providing: Economic aid; Dual-use technology; military intelligence; special operations training; extensive military hardware, and battle-planning assistance.
This Salafist invasion of Syria is but another extension of US dominance in the Middle East on a reasoning that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. In this case Syria, Russia, Iran and Iraq are enemies. Jimmy Carter back in 1980 had similar thoughts regarding the Soviet Union.
« Soviet troops, he said, were seeking to dominate a region that contained two-thirds of the world’s exportable oil and posed “a grave threat” to the free movement of Middle East oil.
“This situation demands careful thought, steady nerves, and resolute action, not only for this year but for many years to come,” he said during the 1980 State of the Union Address. He later added: “Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.” »
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/dont-take-the-oil-time-ditch-the-carter-doctrine-19310
Since then of course we have had many changes in governments in particular in Iran and Iraq with Russia and China competing with the US in influence in the region with the extension of BRICS.
First of all … Glad to have your continued perspective from Beirut. I’m imagining that you’re having thoughts of departing, though, as you sense the tide which will be coming to Lebanon.
… I’m wondering, Craig …
Where does this leave Iran, in the knowing that it’s only a matter of time before a full-scale assault on them… Do they make the move to annihilate Israel whilst they can?
Times of great concern for so many people in Syria.
Re: ‘He [al-Julani] was the deputy leader of ISIS’
Julani was never the deputy leader of ISIS. Indeed, he was never even a member of ISIS, having refused to allow the al-Nusra Front to be subsumed by it, and instead pledging allegiance directly to al-Qaeda’s then leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. To all but 9/11 ‘truthers’, al-Qaeda are of course responsible for the deaths of thousands of people in the West. However, the same can be said of Irish Republican terrorist groups, some of whose former leaders were subsequently accepted as contemporary politicians and statespeople, despite the killings by ‘dissident’ Republican groups continuing. The question is: will the same happen to Julani? As ever, only time will tell.
Re: ‘But both British mainstream media and British Muslim outlets have been openly promoting and praising HTS for a week – frankly much more openly than I have ever witnessed anyone in the UK support Hamas and Hezbollah’
Perhaps I’m missing something, but I can’t see anything in the Guardian article linked to that openly promotes or praises HTS. To my eyes, it’s essentially reportage – unlike this:
https://x.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1713335006121140511
There’s nothing religious about zionist rule in Palestine.
Turkey now fully behind the HTS march on Damascus, Israel/US now going for all the marbles in the Middle East. If Syria, Russia and Iran fail to stop this the Middle East will be lost, with just Iran left in the crosshairs, as Craig says this is a pivotal moment in world history.
Erdoğan backs Syrian opposition march: “The Target Is Damascus”
The Turkish President also added that “the opposition’s march continues. Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without accidents or disasters.”
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/813957/erdogan-backs-syrian-opposition-march-the-target-is-damascus
No praise too high.
Thank you very much for this outstanding reporting Mr Murray.
The picture looks bleak, but is developing by the minute.
Will Russia really allow their military and naval facilities in Latakia, al-Harra and Tarsus to be taken by Western-backed and -supporting jihadis?
Not content with using the RAF bases in Cyprus to target civilians in Gaza – the RAF bases in Cyprus are now being used as staging posts to fly god knows what into Syria – they turn off their transponders over Syrian airspace.
https://nitter.poast.org/kennardmatt/status/1865025454278676682#m
Suppose(?) they are dropping weapons and fresh ammo in locations for HTS, not one UK parliamentarian would give a damn. Because democracy has been engineered in the UK so as to be as unrepresentative as possible in order to limit dissent. Sad, but true. Where there is no media honesty, there can be no real democracy.
Sad state of affairs.
Great piece.
Uyigher and Bosnian “rebels” are once again the speartip of Israel’s plan to overthrow every middle east government that backs the Palestinian cause. Sunni bigots are just as ardently on board as The West. Women and kids of Palestine be damned.
Who cares either how glaring the necessary contradictions? In Syria we must all support Al Qaeda, the black flag men, the headchoppers; but in Iran, the woke feminist shitlibs!
To hell with all the cognitive dissonance, wherever and whatever, we must support all the noble regime changes of the grand Western-Zionist/ Sunni bigot alliance!
Are these the same cuddly ‘Uyighers’ that were supposedly oppressed by the Chinese ?
Hmm, makes one wonder where the stories of oppression originated …
Well – HTS are a Proscribed organisation in the UK as is Hamas apparently. Perhaps Hamas should re-brand and that will be fine for our Guardians of Democracy? Acronyms are all the rage in the US, so no surprise if they appear in the AUKUS media.
My opinion is that the attack on Syria is to cut a few weapons-supply routes to Hezbollah, although not sure that the Syrians have much to supply. But the main aim is to take Damascus and consider the job done.
Not convinced of that, because like any invasion you can invade but then you have to occupy until the next fight. Staying there is much more difficult than the invasion.
That’s also very much a problem for Israel, as they can bomb but not occupy. It’s down to how Iran and Hezbollah respond now.
I heard on Judge Napolitano (Youtube) an American journalist in South Korea say that the public were against suppling artillery shells to Ukraine. The interesting part is that he said the shells demanded by the US were only 155mm ones. I’m no expert but that is small weaponry relative to the big stuff.
He was puzzled why the US would even bother with that size of artillery shells as surely the US can supply bigger and more powerful weaponry than that? If they can’t they are in trouble.
Just to throw this in: there are Israelis who like to moan what a shame it was they ended the Six Day War without capturing Damascus.
This is the extreme thuggish mentality that says “You’re only alive because we allow you to be”. Yes they really seriously think they’ve been too soft.
It’s the available guns that dictate the size of the shells.
Eschatology
1) HTS
Serious question: how are the HTS on eschatology? Are its soldiers, supporters, and fellow travellers in the Lebanon and Syria talking about the end of times much?
That was a massive theme for Daesh. There was a glossy Daesh magazine called “Dabiq”, named after a town in Syria that they believed would be the site of a big prophesied battle that would initiate the end of times. (The magazine may have been fake, and was called fake by Iran, but that’s not the point.) Daesh occupied Dabiq itself until the Turkish-backed Hamza Brigade drove them out.
Dabiq is about 25 miles from Aleppo.
2) Christians
Surely some USA Christians must be going nuts over the apocalypse right now too? That’s likely to be a big theme of the new Trump presidency.
Gotta wonder how much loony USA Christian money is currently being spent on stirring things up in the Levant.
3) Alawites
I found this article by Uğur Ümit Üngör.
I have no idea where he is coming from. He’s at the NIOD Institute in the Netherlands and presumably isn’t keen on upsetting Zionists. He seems to want to stir it up between Alawites and Sunnis in Syria, which isn’t a good sign. He tantalisingly mentions Alawite eschatology but unfortunately he doesn’t say anything about it. I’d heard before that the “Alawite religion contains certain theological elements that are secret and not to be disclosed to outsiders” and I believe this to be true. Some of the secret stuff may well be to do with eschatology. If Ungor knows about this, someone should commission him to write an article about it.
Surely there must be some guys in Beirut bars right now who’d be up for a good conversation with a brave Scot about eschatology?
I am not certain about this. There are probably many guys in Beirut bars (and elsewhere) who believe that eschatology is something connected with what you do on the toilet. At least, if you’re determined to raise that topic, you’ll need a very experienced translator.
E-scatology – so that’s what Labour mean with NHS smart rings !
Re. ” it is reported that the Russian navy has already set sail from Tartus.” Maybe the reason for this is explained here:
‘On December 4 it was reported by CNN that Gerasimov had “cautioned the top US general about a large-scale Russian military exercise in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, according to a US official”.
On December 5, ABC News, referring to an unnamed US official as its source, reported that Gerasimov had warned “that Russia was going to carry out test launches of hypersonic missiles in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and that U.S. Navy ships should steer clear of the target area for safety reasons.” ‘
https://johnhelmer.net/jcs-chief-general-charles-brown-just-proved-that-nothing-short-of-ukraines-surrender-is-negotiable-with-the-us-thats-capitulation-not-negotiation/#more-90788
“This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations”
Alawites too celebrate Christmas.
Jeffrey Sachs: the al-Qaeda invasion of Aleppo and Hama is a US, Israel and Turkish attack. Sachs – whose description of the CIA operation ‘Timber Sycamore’ in Syria disturbed so many talking heads on MSNBC – tells Piers Morgan the truth.
https://x.com/KevorkAlmassian/status/1864610909877850322
Israel doesn’t want hard line Islamists running Syria; they’d rather a weakened Assad stays in power.
Pears Morgaine
Maybe for a time that was the thinking in Israel. But with Hezbollah diminished, they likely feel that in the ensuing chaos of Assad’s regime collapsing, they can invade Syria, using the pretext of guaranteeing their own security; in the process grabbing another chunk of Syria’s territory.
Who is going to protest or stop them doing that? Trump? von der Leyen’s EU? Starmer’s UK? They’ve got a western leadership that couldn’t be more pro-Israel if they’d handpicked it themselves.
@Pears – “Israel doesn’t want hard line Islamists running Syria; they’d rather a weakened Assad stays in power.”
There are other options. Tempt Iran (or even Iran, Russia, and Turkey) to enter Syria, and then nuke the bejeesus out of enough enemies to make the point to the world “Got it? Get it. Good.” Zionist heaven.
@Goose – The only power that could conceivably stop them doing it is Russia. Russia would get badly burned (to WW2 level maybe) but they might possibly win in the end. A lot would depend on FSB internal security. I have no doubt that in a war between Israel and Russia, they would both take it to each other’s territories.
It was a strategic mistake for the USSR not to erase Israel in the early days. ISTR it was considered.
NATO expanding its presence to Jordan is scary.
The West backing a Genocide in Gaza think nothing of backing the head chopping HTS in Syria. The West is now a degenerate psychopathic small group of countries who can see their hegemonic dreams turning to ashes.
I wonder who’s paying for this HTS advance.
There may also have been other attacks on Syrian government forces that haven’t been reported – e.g. cyber.
Meanwhile in Gaza the Zionists have bombed the Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza using drones and stormed it, murdering at least 29 people.