A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world.
This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations, the smashing of all alcohol and the forced imposition of the veil on women in Aleppo now.
Yesterday US Warthog air-to-ground jets attacked and severely depleted reinforcements which were, at the invitation of the Syrian government, en route to Syria from Iraq. Constant, daily Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military infrastructure for months have been a major factor in the demoralisation and reduced capacity of the Syrian government’s Syrian Arab Army, which has simply evaporated in Aleppo and Hama.
It is very difficult to see the tide turning in Syria. The Russians now have either to massively reinforce their Syrian bases with ground troops or to evacuate them. Faced with the exigencies of Ukraine, they may do the latter, and it is reported that the Russian navy has already set sail from Tartus.
The speed of collapse of Syria has taken everybody by surprise. If the situation does not stabilise, Damascus could be besieged and ISIS back on the hills above the Bekaa valley within a week, given the speed of their advance and the short distances involved.
A renewed Israeli attack on Southern Lebanon to coincide with a Salafist invasion of the Bekaa Valley would then seem inevitable, as the Israelis would obviously wish their border with their new Taliban-style Greater Syrian neighbour to be as far North as possible. It could be a race for Beirut, unless the Americans have already organised who gets it.
It is no coincidence that the attack on Syria started the day of the Lebanon/Israel ceasefire. The jihadist forces do not want to be seen to be fighting alongside Israel, even though they are fighting forces which have been relentlessly bombed by Israel, and in the case of Hezbollah are exhausted from fighting Israel.
The Times of Israel has no compunction about saying the quiet part out loud, unlike the British media:
In fact Israeli media is giving a lot more truth about the Syrian rebel forces than British and American media just now. This is another article from the Times of Israel:
While HTS officially seceded from Al Qaeda in 2016, it remains a Salafi jihadi organization designated as a terror organization in the US, the EU and other countries, with tens of thousands of fighters.
Its sudden surge raises concerns that a potential takeover of Syria could transform it into an Islamist, Taliban-like regime – with repercussions for Israel at its south-western border. Others, however, see the offensive as a positive development for Israel and a further blow to the Iranian axis in the region.
Contrast this to the UK media, which from the Telegraph and Express to the Guardian has promoted the official narrative that not just the same organisations, but the same people responsible for mass torture and executions of non-Sunnis, including Western journalists, are now cuddly liberals.
Nowhere is this more obvious than the case of Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, sometimes spelt Al-Julani or Al-Golani, who is now being boosted throughout western media as a moderate leader. He was the deputy leader of ISIS, and the CIA actually has a $10 million bounty on his head! Yes, that is the same CIA which is funding and equipping him and giving him air support.
Supporters of the Syrian rebels still attempt to deny that they have Israeli and US support – despite the fact that almost a decade ago there was open Congressional testimony in the USA that, to that point, over half a billion dollars had been spent on assistance to Syrian rebel forces, and the Israelis have openly been providing medical and other services to the jihadists and effective air support.
One interesting consequence of this joint NATO/Israel support for the jihadist groups in Syria is a further perversion of domestic rule of law. To take the UK as an example, under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act it is illegal to state an opinion that supports, or may lead somebody else to support, a proscribed organisation.
The abuse of this provision by British police to persecute Palestinian supporters for allegedly encouraging support for proscribed organisations Hamas and Hezbollah is notorious, with even tangential alleged references leading to arrest. Sarah Wilkinson, Richard Medhurst, Asa Winstanley, Richard Barnard and myself are all notable victims, and the persecution has been greatly intensified by Keir Starmer.
Yet Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is also a proscribed group in the UK. But both British mainstream media and British Muslim outlets have been openly promoting and praising HTS for a week – frankly much more openly than I have ever witnessed anyone in the UK support Hamas and Hezbollah – and not a single person has been arrested or even warned by UK police.
That in itself is the strongest of indications that western security services are fully behind the current attack on Syria.
For the record, I think it is an appalling law, and nobody should be prosecuted for expressing an opinion either way. But the politically biased application of the law is undeniable.
When the entire corporate and state media in the West puts out a unified narrative that Syrians are overjoyed to be released by HTS from the tyranny of the Assad regime – and says nothing whatsoever of the accompanying torture and execution of Shias, and destruction of Christmas decorations and icons – it ought to be obvious to everybody where this is coming from.
Yet – and this is another UK domestic repercussion – a very substantial number of Muslims in the UK support HTS and the Syrian rebels, because of the funding pumped into UK mosques from Saudi and Emirate Salafist sources. This is allied to the UK security service influence also wielded through the mosques, both by sponsorship programmes and “think tanks” benefiting approved religious leaders, and by the execrable coercive Prevent programme.
UK Muslim outlets that have been ostensibly pro-Palestinian – like Middle East Eye and 5 Pillars – enthusiastically back Israel’s Syrian allies in ensuring the destruction of resistance to the genocide of the Palestinians. Al Jazeera alternates between items detailing dreadful massacre in Palestine, and items extolling the Syrian rebels bringing Israel-allied rule to Syria.
Among the mechanisms they employ to reconcile this is a refusal to acknowledge the vital role of Syria in enabling the supply of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. Which supply the jihadists have now cut off, to the absolute delight of Israel, and in conjunction with both Israeli and US air strikes.
In the final analysis, for many Sunni Muslims both in the Middle East and in the West, the pull seems to be stronger of sectarian hatred of the Shia and the imposition of Salafism, than preventing the ultimate destruction of the Palestinian nation.
I am not a Muslim. My Muslim friends happen to be almost entirely Sunni. I personally regard the continuing division over the leadership of the religion over a millennium ago as deeply unhelpful and a source of unnecessary continued hate.
But as a historian I do know that the western colonial powers have consciously and explicitly used the Sunni/Shia split for centuries to divide and rule. In the 1830’s, Alexander Burnes was writing reports on how to use the division in Sind between Shia rulers and Sunni populations to aid British colonial expansion.
On 12 May 1838, in his letter from Simla setting out his decision to launch the first British invasion of Afghanistan, British Governor General Lord Auckland included plans to exploit Shia/Sunni division in both Sind and Afghanistan to aid the British military attack.
The colonial powers have been doing it for centuries, Muslim communities keep falling for it, and the British and Americans are doing it right now to further their remodelling of the Middle East.
Simply put, many Sunni Muslims have been brainwashed into hating Shia Muslims more than they hate those currently committing genocide of an overwhelmingly Sunni population in Gaza.
I refer to the UK because I witnessed this first hand during the election campaign in Blackburn. But the same is true all over the Muslim world. Not one Sunni Muslim-led state has lifted a single finger to prevent the genocide of the Palestinians.
Their leadership is using anti-Shia sectarianism to maintain popular support for a de facto alliance with Israel against the only groups – Iran, Houthi and Hezbollah – which actually did attempt to give the Palestinians practical support in resistance. And against the Syrian government which facilitated supply.
The unspoken but very real bargain is this. The Sunni powers will accept the wiping out of the entire Palestinian nation and formation of Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia communities in Syria and Lebanon by Israel and forces backed by NATO (including Turkey).
There are, of course, contradictions in this grand alliance. The United States’ Kurdish allies in Iraq are unlikely to be happy with Turkey’s destruction of Kurdish groups in Syria, which is what Erdoğan gains from Turkey’s very active military role in toppling Syria – in addition to extending Turkish control of oilfields.
The Iran-friendly Iraqi government will have further difficulty with reconciling US continuing occupation of swathes of its country, as they realise they are the next target.
The Lebanese army is under control of the USA, and Hezbollah must have been greatly weakened to have agreed the disastrous ceasefire with Israel. Christian fascist militias traditionally allied to Israel are increasingly visible in parts of Beirut, though whether they would be stupid enough to make common cause with jihadists from the North may be open to question. But should Syria fall entirely to jihadist rule – which may happen fast – I do not rule out Lebanon following very quickly indeed, and being integrated into a Salafist Greater Syria.
How the Palestinians of Jordan would react to this disastrous turn of events, it is hard to be sure. The British puppet Hashemite Kingdom is the designated destination for ethnically cleansed West Bank Palestinians under the Greater Israel plan.
What this all potentially amounts to is the end of pluralism in the Levant and its replacement by supremacism. An ethno-supremacist Greater Israel and a religio-supremacist Salafist Greater Syria.
Unlike many readers, I have never been a fan of the Assad regime or blind to its human rights violations. But what it did undeniably do was maintain a pluralist state where the most amazing historical religious and community traditions – including Sunni (and many Sunni do support Assad), Shia, Alaouites, descendants of the first Christians, and speakers of Aramaic, the language of Jesus – were all able to co-exist.
The same is true of Lebanon.
What we are witnessing is the destruction of that and imposition of a Saudi-style rule. All the little cultural things that indicate pluralism – from Christmas trees to language classes to winemaking to women going unveiled – have just been destroyed in Aleppo and could be destroyed from Damascus to Beirut.
I do not pretend that there are not genuine liberal democrats among the opposition to Assad. But they have negligible military significance, and the idea that they would be influential in a new government is delusion.
In Israel, which pretended to be a pluralist state, the mask is off. The Muslim call to prayer has just been banned. Arab minority members of the Knesset have been suspended for criticising Netanyahu and genocide. More walls and gates are built every day, not just in unlawfully occupied territories but in the “state of Israel” itself, to enforce apartheid.
I confess I once had the impression that Hezbollah was itself a religio-supremacist organisation; the dress and style of its leadership look theocratic. Then I came here and visited places like Tyre, which has been under Hezbollah elected local government for decades, and found that swimwear and alcohol are allowed on the beach and the veil is optional, while there are completely unmolested Christian communities there.
I will never now see Gaza, but wonder if I might have been similarly surprised by Hamas rule.
It is the United States which is promoting the cause of religious extremism and of the end, all over the Middle East, of a societal pluralism similar to Western norms. That is of course a direct consequence of the United States being allied to both the two religio-supremacist centres of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
It is the USA which is destroying pluralism, and it is Iran and its allies which defend pluralism. I would not have seen this clearly had I not come here. But once seen, it is blindingly obvious.
Beirut 6 December 2024
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Yes the sunni regimes are really something else, frankly. What disgusting pack of leaders – no aid to children in Palestine/Lebanon but they are more than interested to support violent, racist jihadists taking over Syria.
This just proves once again that the only thing these scums care about is shia/Iran. Just like Netanyahu. Together with israel they demolished Hamas, Hezbollah and now they are set on Syria.
The collaboration between arab states and Israel is way deeper than one believe, that is sure.
News coming in that Deir ez-Zor have have fallen too meanwhile Al-Julani/Al-Golani is interviewed in CNN as some type of innocent Zelensky character! On top of that Erdoğan today publicly wished the jihadists all the luck to take more of Syria:
“The Turkish president has expressed hope that the jihadists continue their march to Damascus ”
“Idlib, Hama, Homs, and the target, of course, is Damascus. The opposition’s march continues,” the Turkish president was quoted as telling reporters in Istanbul. “Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without accidents or disasters,” he added.
https://swentr.site/news/608840-erdogan-wishes-luck-jihadists-syria/
At the same time it is absurd how bad Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia’s military intelligence is. Their obvious weakness obviously just embolden the other side.
Who would have thought though that in 2024 the west/israel would publicly support alQaida. What sick society west is. No principles whatsoever.
The West created Al Quaeda in the 1980s and lionised them. It also loudly supported them last time round in Syria. They are now whitewashing and ennobling the headchopper Al-Jolani the same way they did Bin Laden, Azov Nazis and the IDF.
The Telegraph puff pieces, doing PR-ops for their image as caring ‘diversity champions’ are darkly amusing.
Matt Kennard highlights another today : ‘Moderate’ jihadist leader storms Syria – but tells troops not to frighten the children
https://x.com/kennardmatt/status/1864966313849893051
Oh he’s so kind and gentle, even seeing pink in his shemagh headscarf, presumably marking Jihadist gay pride day ahead of ‘summary execution Saturdays’?
I don’t doubt they all knew, HTS was up to something. The scale of the attack and brittleness of the Baathist state, may caught them off guard to a degree.
The issue is the SAA has always been a second or third rate outfit, as far as armies go. Allied forces can help the Syrians, they can’t make em fight worth a damn.
It’s hard to fight fanatics.
In Syria, fighting IS, it was common for them to load shielded vehicles up with high explosive and drive them at high speed at checkpoints, leaving defenders with little time to react. Fighting the people who don’t care, and glory in the idea of being martyred, certainly isn’t for everyone.
Apparently, Putin has said, he won’t come to the aid of an army that turns and runs, or surrenders en masse, as the Syrian Army has. We’ve seen on the news how the rebels are acquiring Russian provided military hardware from various Syrian bases, bases that they’ve taken without a fight. You can only imagine how that must look from Moscow’s perspective; when they’re seen their own forces dying in Ukraine for lack of said equipment. Think of the optics of that.
Fanatics don’t have some mystical superpowers, they have their weaknesses too.
It’s a mistake to assume all Soviet based arms are “frontline” stuff from Russia.
Instead it’s Russian “export models” and possibly Chinese and North Korean too via Iran. None of it top shelf, for a reason.
They’ve all known for decades, that Arab armies generally suck. So does the US by the way vis-vis the Saudis, UAE etc.
Also the “Russian equipment shortages”, is a bit of a meme.
The stuff they were lacking at the start of the SMO. Wasn’t the armour or small arms etc. That Syria was getting.
It is very likely that the US aim in Syria if it succeeds in overthrowing Asad, is as it was in Iraq – break the country up into small pieces, which can be ethnically based. In Iraq it didn’t work, apart from Kurdistan, but that won’t stop them trying. The French tried it on in Syria in 1925, and that failed too. The US certainly will not tolerate a strong nationalistic state. The plan will be a failed state like Libya. Israel will insist on it.
Turkish President Erdogan is over the moon – at what’s happening in Syria – of course Erdoğan wants to wipeout the Kurds in Syria – and Turkey is already in possession of Syrian lands in the North of the country.
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has voiced support for the jihadist insurgency in Syria, urging the Islamists to continue their march to Damascus, various media outlets reported on Friday.
Militant forces in Syria led by the group Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, last week launched a surprise assault from their base in Idlib, targeting the province of Aleppo.”
https://www.rt.com/news/608840-erdogan-wishes-luck-jihadists-syria/
What stands out here is how this ancient rivalry has been perpetuated since the Shia Suni schism. I remember how even Hamas turned against Assad at the beginning of the fake Arab spring despite his constant support for the Palestinian cause.
The other factor that has doomed the Palestinians and now also the plurality in Syria and Lebanon is the half hearted support by Russia. Russia has always played a double game where the Muslim and Arab world is concerned , and never wholeheartedly supported Syria against Israel or Turkey preferring to have a very open policy with those two. Erdogan has also been extremely duplicitous paying lip service to Palestine but continuing relationship with Israel. The whole game of geopolitics is so hypocritical and twisted that I am afraid it is now difficult to take sides. Humanity is the victim here and war and killings remain unchecked and barbarism rules supreme.
Shia Hezbollah supports the mostly Sunni Palestinians.
Israel arms mostly Shia Azerbaijan, as does Sunni Turkey.
The Alawites who run the Syrian government are neither Sunni nor Shia.
Shia Iran favours Christian Armenia against mostly Shia Azerbaijan.
Israel had a strategic understanding with Iran under Shia Ayatollah Khomeini for a long time, during the war against Iraq under Sunni Saddam.
Much of the idea that Sunni vs Shia explains so much, smacks of British Foreign Office orientalism.
Many Sunnis detest the Saudi rulers, the Gulf dictatorships in general, and Salafism, Daesh, Al Qaeda – not for “religious” reasons, unless it counts as a “religious” reason to be aware that most who join e.g. Daesh are little more than drugged-up rapist murderous criminal scum rather than “those who have a different religious outlook”.
Good summation, although Russia is in a difficult position in that it really does have strategic interests with just about EVERY party to this conflict. Gotta be a nightmare to manage that.
Reports of Iranian government statement on Syria:
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/06/738593/Iran-Iraq-Syria-Foreign-Minister-Abbas-Araghchi-President-Abdul-Latif-Rashid-Prime-Minister-Mohammed-Shia–Al-Sudani-consultation-coordination-terrorism-security-unity-sovereignty
“In a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein, the Iranian foreign minister said the continuation of insecurity and instability in Syria poses a threat to security of all the countries in the region.
“The Takfiri-terrorist groups have hatched a long-term plot to cause insecurity and violence in the region,” Araghchi added.
The Iraqi government and nation understand the threat of terrorism much more than others given their bitter and, of course, valuable experience they gained during the effective fight against Daesh terrorism, he noted.
He said Iran and other regional countries are keen to improve coordination with Iraq in the face of new challenges.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/06/738601/Iran-Iraq-Syria-Foreign-Minister-Abbas-Araghchi-Fuad-Hussein-Bassam-Sabbagh-Baghdad-terrorists-press-conference-security-Hayat-Tahrir-al-Sham
“Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the threat of armed groups active in Syria will not be limited to the country and will spread to Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey.”
“If Syria becomes a safe haven for terrorists and the ground is prepared for the return of terrorist groups, including Daesh, this will pose a major threat to the entire region, he warned. (…)
He expressed confidence that Takfiri terrorist groups are carrying out their attacks as part of an American-Zionist plot, emphasizing, “The role of the Zionists in designing this conspiracy should not be overlooked.” ”
(Does Press TV have the same translator as TASS? They sound similar.)
Regime change in Iran is the ultimate goal of US policy which is common to both main parties, so what is happening in Syria somehow must be considered a means of achieving that end. Iran’s response is therefore critical and we have to wait and see; but, whatever, it will have implications for Russia, so it will have be a carefully considered one. I don’t think Iran will fall into any trap that will risk a full frontal attack, though at the same time I cannot see it standing idly by.
The rebranding of HST should fool no one. Whatever they are, they are not fighting for a Western-style free democratic Syria. Remember a significant number of them are jihadis bussed out from Ghouta into a sort of semi-exile in Idlib in 2018 after the Syrian government regained control there; an act of appeasement that I guess it is now regretting, as it has clearly backfired. I remember way back reading a series of articles on the original jihadi occupation of Ghouta on https://www.joshualandis.com which left me under no illusions that these are warm fuzzy freedom fighters as western media like to portray them. They are dangerous in any societal context – and the sooner that is recognised, the better.
Hopefully Russia won’t drop Iran in the doo-doo as they did to Armenia.
Security of Russian nuclear installations may be an issue.
But surely, surely, Putin can’t consent to being an Erdoğan houseboy?
There may come a time when the thinking is f*ck it, this is going to go nuclear anyway, so hold on tight as we go over the catastrophe curve…
Um, no.
Armenia dropped *itself* in the doo-doo, whilst openly betraying Nargono-Karabakh.
Under a fifth column government. Of the very type NATO is trying to install in Georgia.
Anyway people are talking about what Russia should do, or stands to lose in Syria.
Yet Assad’s alliance with Iran was of more military importance, and the Iranians don’t have active large-scale military campaigns ongoing. Closer to home.
Where are their uncommitted troops? Why talk about *them* being abandoned?
Note to journalists: whichever country’s trainers, advisers, or diplomats run hell for leather out of Syria or Lebanon, don’t even think of using the British army’s undignified exit from Kabul as a comparator.
Anyone else finding their Twitter /X feed is suddenly full of pro- Jihadist / anti-Assad propaganda from obscure vloggers in Syria: Free Syrian Army accounts and HTS accounts; interviews and statements. Just goes to show Western authorities have absolutely no qualms leveraging social media to distribute known terror groups’ propaganda when it serves and suits western interests.
I think this is partly because of the CNN interview of the HTS dressed like Zelenski leader. Fact that he could appear as the leader of a proscribed terrorist organisation on American TV and treated like a hero says it all really.
Didn’t his old group Al-Qaeda carry out 9/11?
Now this guy is some sort of rockstar, being chased by fawning US news anchors for interviews. Bet he won’t be asked about their greatest hits. Mad times we live in.
The end-of-us-all times, Goose. And what WOH have in mind – sickening. Sigh.
Thanks once again for your well-informed and frank analysis, Craig. It is much appreciated
A wonderful, honest and clear-eyed assessment. A very marked contrast to the likes of Owen Jones and Novara, all obediently pretending to be credulous about the rebels (again).. In the pantheon of left media psyops, Syria is right up there with the Labour antisemitism ‘crisis’.
This Guardian piece on Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is clear enough – he is a jihadi who feigns moderation to achieve his purpose.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/06/who-is-abu-mohammed-al-jolani-leader-of-syrian-insurgents-hts
The euphoria and hysteric media and political bubble of triumphalism over the expected demise of Syria and its long-standing president as the genocide continues, shows up the satraps to the populations of their nations – Egypt, Emirates etc. – as it should do to us Collective Western consumers of the daily media propaganda.
I think the supposed/definite ‘sudden collapse’ of the Syrian Forces under attack by the Erdoğan Natzio Regimes headchopper proxies and grey wolf fascist bastards, is a bit reminiscent of the sudden collapse and retreat from Kherson by the RF.
That presaged the Ukropian dream ‘counter offensive’. That floundered and burnt up all the natzios dumb Great Game plans and weapons to establish the new khazarian empire in Crimea to control the future Great transport corridors and resources of Asia.
That Surovikin plan and lines of fall back were obviously masterful. Playing on the over-extended Russia natzio strategy. So it may be that this could be a replay of that Great failed putsch of last year to get to the Black Sea and evict the Russian fleet from its base. This time from Tartus.
Or it may be real. A bone thrown to natzio mongrel dogs as they fail miserably at that great attempt comes to an end with a million dead.
It’s certainly one aimed at getting the Drumpff presidency mired longer in West Asia. He had ordered the evacuation before the end of his term there as well as in Afghanistan as well as started direct contact with DPRK!
Whatever.
One thing is certain, this is just another folly of the short and doomed existence of the illegal Apartheid Entity’s mission impossible ‘raison d’être’ in The Levant.
The Last Colonial expansion of the Anglo European centuries of conquest aimed at controlling the gateway between EurAsia and Africa.
It has only been possible with the fantasy of its genesis story fooling our Collective Wasteral minds along with the Oil and gas stealing imperial creatures of centuries of occupation being willing satraps.
All their attempts to hold on, are doomed as the sands that it is built on shift, by the rising Global South throwing off its chains, helped by the superpowerful dragon-bear.
So yes, come and get it, as Putin would say! I wonder where that genius Surevikin has been for the last year?
We will soon see by the end of January the direction that Trump is going to take. Peace or All out War. Either way the unipolar is Done. Stick a fork in it!
P.s. From the River to the Sea.
DunGroanin
Why do you think that the Syrian Government forces are retreating from Aleppo, Homs etc?
A cunning plan?
I dunno JK – it seems they have suddenly turned into flapping girls with handbags and so would rather run away and be chased all the way home by the manly foreign rapist and head choppers so they could screw their mothers and daughters while playing hide the sausage with the now fawning trans ex Syrian soldiers?
Some crazy Angel dust?
Some new Covid disease?
Maybe they got hold of some Western news and entertainment media that Trans’d them? Like your kids and boyfriend in a wig?
What do you think?
DunGroanin
My point is that the Assad forces seem to be unwilling/unable to prevent the head choppers from advancing.
Bad as Assad’s regime is, the head choppers are far worse.
So maybe the SAA hope to hold the South of Syria. The trouble is that retreating can become a habit and retreats can become routs.
Just came across this on JVL’s website, posted yesterday – i.e. an article in Haaretz published a couple of days ago. The following is from the JVL introduction:
« Israeli historian Lee Mordechai has compiled a massive archive of material called “Bearing Witness to the Israel-Gaza War” which Ha’aretz says “constitutes the most methodical and detailed documentation in Hebrew (there is also an English translation) of the war crimes that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza. It is a shocking indictment comprised of thousands of entries relating to the war, to the actions of the government, the media, the Israel Defense Forces and Israeli society in general.” »
And here’s a link direct to the Haaretz piece:
« A Massive Database of Evidence, Compiled by a Historian, Documents Israel’s War Crimes in Gaza
A woman with a child is shot while waving a white flag . Starving girls are crushed to death in line for bread. A cuffed 62-year-old man is run over, evidently by a tank. An aerial strike targets people trying to help a wounded boy. A database of thousands of videos, photos, testimonies, reports and investigations documents the horrors committed by Israel in Gaza.
by Nir Hasson, Ha’aretz »
https://archive.ph/2024.12.05-185711/https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-05/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/massive-database-of-evidence-compiled-by-a-historian-details-israels-war-crimes-in-gaza/00000193-979b-d408-a7d3-bfdbf1410000
But it’s all just Israel defending itself, as our political masters keep telling us.
Given who reigns in DC, there’s also a layer of grotesque hypocrisy to US promotion of extreme religio-supremacism in the Middle East.
For years Democrats have cloaked their oligarchic, warmongering essence with a smily-face facade, ostentatiously promoting diversity and tolerance, ‘celebrating’ ethnic and sexual minorities of every stripe. However insincere, no political party on earth has claimed to be more committed to pluralism as a fundamental principle.
The Democrats know they can rely on the media never to highlight the incongruity of their commitment to Jewish and Salafist supremacism in west Asia. Their charade will be allowed to go on and on and on.
I fail to see how Assad is seriously threatened by what I see as an HTS-fronted, Turkish-backed, adventure into Syria. It appears to be an excuse for Turkey to lay out its stall, signalling that it values its place in NATO above all else.
If it wasn’t for Turkey allowing fuel to flow to Israel, which would end up short of fuel for the actions of its military, Israeli actions would come to a grinding halt. Turkey is the money-making middle man in the flow of oil to Israel and is raising its NATO flag high.
This report by Craig seems depressingly pessimistic for no argued good reason. This jaunt seems of less significance in Syria than the Kyiev adventure in to Kursk…_
D: “I fail to see….”
…. From our resident “nothing to see here, folks” correspondent.
Digger UK. Yes – Turkey for Xmas it is then.
Erdoğan is a shifty leader and he is taking his chances, as Netanyahu does.
The question is whether Russia – Iran and Hezbollah (forget the Lebanese Army) do to defend Damascus?
If I were the Chinese and Russia in relation to joining BRICS I would tell him that he’s not trusted and not fit to join the BRICS.
But this is politics (concentrated economics) and here there is money there is public denunciations and private business.
It’s a very dodgy world.
I am being told by Palestinian supporters and friends that it is very desperate in Syria and moving fast. The question isn’t so much who is betraying Syria, but who isn’t betraying.
Russia seems to be nowhere and has abandoned Tarsus, and HST are close to Damascus. Turkey has definitely picked its near future partners.
Suspicions are apparently being aired that Iran is also accepting the poisoned chalice…_
Friends are arguing that the current Iranian leader, Pezeskhian, who replaced Raisi killed in the helicopter crash, is a lot more western friendly than we realise. New ground for me now…_
Russia hasn’t abandoned its bases brah; its contingent is active. They’ve never deployed a lot of ground troops, even during the original intervention.
Iran’s leader also isn’t the “president”, but a council led by the Ayatollah. With input from the revolutionary guard corps.
In any case Syria’s allies can’t teleport troops on-site, they need the SAA to the bulk of the work. Until any larger scale assistance can be sent.
Clearly the biggest issue is internal, hopefully the Baathists have enough real troops to hold Homs and contain any smaller flare-ups. Until HTS start really wearing themselves out.
This seems also to be an attempt to damage the development of BRICS, Syria being part of the North/South route. I cannot see how Iran and Russia can allow this takeover. Given that the MSM are praising the success of ‘the resistance’, I doubt that we can trust news about the degree of success. Remember how we hear again and again how Russia is depleted and losing in Ukraine. I expect to see some counter action in the next few days. If you are going to do a serious attack, don’t advertise it in advance.
Ben Norton, in this must watch video, explains the rise of HTS (formally Al Qaeda), and how this was all backed and admitted by the US from over 10 years ago. This latest insurgency is but one more attempt at Syrian regime change – i.e. another proxy war – this time with the eventual aim of confronting of Iran, clearing the way for ‘a new middle east’ with US colonial dominance as its end game. Do the western leadership not realize that we are not stupid, and that with a little research these US machinations can be found all over the Internet since 2012?
https://youtu.be/cl-vX1RBapo
It’s so sad to see Plurarism (sp?) come to an end in the Middle East, but since it’s the way it goes, what we readers of this blog can still wish is for our host and mentor to pack and go.
Please leave Beirut even if it means some penalty on your current residence fees, and head to Damascus where it’s all happening starting tomorrow.
Hopefully, things will have cooled down before Christmas, so local restrictions won’t feel too hard, and true believers like yourself can be back home in time.
The loss of Aleppo and Hama to the HTS (head choppers) now a short distance from Homs – a very strategic city, the capture of which would next expose Damascus, which is also close to Homs, and enable HTS to isolate the coastal region. Unless Iranian help is forthcoming the loss of Damascus will herald in a ‘new middle east’ led by the big-stick-wielding and genocide-supporting US/Israel. Fortunately 3 important foreign ministers of Syria, Iraq and Iran see the danger and are determined to stop the fall of Damascus. Here…
“Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the threat of armed groups active in Syria will not be limited to the country and will spread to Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey.
Araghchi was speaking in a joint press conference with his Iraqi and Syrian counterparts Fuad Hussein and Bassam Sabbagh in Baghdad on Friday.
If Syria becomes a safe haven for terrorists and the ground is prepared for the return of terrorist groups, including Daesh, this will pose a major threat to the entire region, he warned.
Pointing to three messages of the tripartite meeting in Baghdad, he said, “The first message is to support the Syrian government and people in the fight against Takfiri terrorist groups.”
He expressed confidence that Takfiri terrorist groups are carrying out their attacks as part of an American-Zionist plot, emphasizing, “The role of the Zionists in designing this conspiracy should not be overlooked.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/06/738601/Iran-Iraq-Syria-Foreign-Minister-Abbas-Araghchi-Fuad-Hussein-Bassam-Sabbagh-Baghdad-terrorists-press-conference-security-Hayat-Tahrir-al-Sham
It really goes against the grain, but I have to admit that it sounds plausible and is in line with the facts. The only thing I can say is that it’s a little too defeatist. The empire has not yet prevailed and it will be surprised in a very unpleasant way by its jihadist allies.
Erdo has finally proved himself to be a rattlesnake, and that too will have consequences.
Question: where are Assad & family likely to flee to? Possibilities:
1. Turkey. Secular but with much Islamic influence, a bit like Syria. I reckon this one most likely.
2. Iran, as a supportive country and as non-Sunni Muslims.
3. The West coast of North Syria, to hide in the Alawite community. That might only be secure in the short term.
4. Saudi Arabia, as a Muslim, as Idi Amin did
5. Libya, possibly in preparation for refuge in Russia. The latter would be exile in a non-Muslim country however.
Any other ideas?
Tumor says that wife and family are already in Moscow. But then, don’t always take it at fece value.
Syria is a powerful nation. Everythin is still possible. Also, President Trump is in Notre Dame with Xelenskyy. If they find a compromise, it could extend to the Middle East.
I guess Iraq is possible, given that Baghdad has hosted the Syrian foreign minister and given refuge to some Syrian troops. That might go before 2 on my list and push the others down a place, given that Iraq is a majority Shia country.
2002, the year before Blair invaded Iraq to spread freedom and democracy:
“Tony Blair’s government considered asking the Queen to bestow an honorary knighthood on President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator, official papers reveal.”
https://www.thetimes.com/article/assad-close-to-being-knighted-under-blair-kxg5rxtwq5n
Middle Eastern Eye reports that army and security leaders were evacuated by helicopter from the Shayrat military base in the Homs countryside to the coast, which would be Assad’s Alawite country. From there it may be a similar hop by helicopter or small aircraft across the sea to Northern Cyprus, effectively a satellite of Turkey, if they don’t fly North. Possibly Assad has gone the same route by now, whether to the coast or further.
Isn’t his wife English…?
According to wiki, Asma al-Assad was born and raised in London to Syrian parents. So she has both UK and Syrian citizenship.
France.
Thank you Craig. This is an excellent analysis of what is happening.
I just hope that what you say does not come to pass and that Syria is able to withstand and repulse the advance of the Jihadists.
Keep safe mate. We need you
Tony greenstein, I can’t connect to your blog; Firefox’s messages below:
– Did Not Connect: Potential Security Issue
– Firefox detected a potential security threat and did not continue to http://www.azvsas.blogspot.com because this web site requires a secure connection.
– What can you do about it?
– http://www.azvsas.blogspot.com has a security policy called HTTP Strict Transport Security (HSTS), which means that Firefox can only connect to it securely. You can’t add an exception to visit this site.
– The issue is most likely with the web site, and there is nothing you can do to resolve it. You can notify the web site’s administrator about the problem.
And on clicking ‘Advanced’:
– Web sites prove their identity via certificates. Firefox does not trust this site because it uses a certificate that is not valid for http://www.azvsas.blogspot.com. The certificate is only valid for the following names:
Followed by a long list of domains and subdomains.
It’s your browser that’s the problem. I got the same messages re HSTS, but tried one of the minority browsers and that let me in, Tony’s blog this time is about Corbyn and the anti-Semitism row, giving well researched details, well worth a read.
Pluralism died in Orient with the expulsion of countless minorities in the fifties. The only country where it survives in number, variety but much everyday life ambiguity is Israel (that emulates the dhimmi status of non muslims in islam land).
Hatred and rivalry always existed. The hyperbolic increase of materialism goes along with short-mindedness. Only a rediscovery of sincere transcendency could start the healing of our sick planet.
Halting arms shipments to the genocidal apartheid state would be a more sincere and immediate step.
It would seem from the clamour and noise in Arabic media that the régime of Bashar al assad is probably at an end.
There were two states in the Near East which just scraped above the line for reasonable treatment of minorities, Syria was one, Lebanon the other.
Al Assad may bolt to Russia or Iran or join his fellow Alawis in a possible further fragmentation of the lands of Ottoman Greater Syria in the wake of militant Sunni triumphalism whose actors would seem to want an Islamic state, a sectarian Sunni Islamic state.
Of course, this continues the weakening of the Arabic speaking world; fragment and control, imperialism resurgens.
Useful fools.
Could be rumours but some claims in the media now that Assad’s family have fled to Russia – allegedly arab leaders call on Assad to leave. Apparently Assad is still in Syria.
News coming out that the “rebels” have reached the strands of Damascus. Colosall failure, not sure anything could save Syria by now. Regime change is inevitable. Assad should watch out so he does not end up like Khadaffi.
It is almost like a perfect storm against the resistance forces in the region first Hamas then Hezbollah now Syria, “tommorow” Iran?
Israel could not have wished for a better outcome.
The same clamour was heard before. All this is literally the exact same script, from ten years ago.
Thousands of “rebels” once held the suburbs of Damascus. Are these real “rebel” force or a tiktok platoon?
The enemy of my enemy game played in the Near East inevitably becomes confusing when your enemy keeps changing sides.
Remember the enemy of Russia in Afghanistan were the Mujaheddin/Taliban whom the US supported.
Opportunistic side changing is normal practice in the «Islamate» world as is deliberate deception. There is no Arabic equivalent of «fairplay».
You have to be born into the system to play the game to advantage i.e spot the bluffers.
Having the impression this latest post by Craig has caused more uproar in the online community.
Don’t know if a few of the more old-fashioned sources will follow.
But obviously papers only listen when it’s too late with their unique amalgam of incompetence and arrogance.
p.s. On Nov. 29th there was a German press conference by 4 experts who demanded that Germany participate in paying reparations to Gaza, rebuild it and sanction Israel. The first time this has been articulated by Germans in Germany so openly.
Of course the issue is, only repetitions work. A one-time event won´t change the public discourse.
Here the report about the conference. The complete conference video with Q&As is only in German.
May be i’´s possible to get English transcriptions. After all one of the 4 speakers works at King’s College.
Christine Binzel, Professor of Economics and Society in the Middle East, Michael Barenboim, Professor at the Barenboim-Said Academy, Hanna Kienzler from King’s College in London and the international lawyer Wolfgang Kaleck from the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR)
“Historic Federal Press Conference: “Germany must participate as an accomplice in the reparations payments for Gaza”
German language version:
https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=125587
google-translated version:
https://www-nachdenkseiten-de.translate.goog/?p=125587&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
There you have it.
“Document from Hillary Clinton’s State Department emails:
“The best to way to help Israel deal with Iran’s growing nuclear capability is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad…It is the strategic relationship between Iran and the regime of Assad in Syria that makes it possible for Iran to undermine Israel’s security.””
https://nitter.poast.org/kennardmatt/status/1865444880580788377#m
Republicofscotland
Iran always was the danger – not Hamas. Despite the very idea that Hamas could drive Israel to the sea in MSM Folklore. How they could do that with light armour – no army – no aircraft and no missiles is (and never was) explained. Iran however I hear are very heavily armed due to their experience of a dis-armed Iraq.
A not very robust Syrian Army seems to be being overrun. How all this will play out in this emerging chaos is anyone’s guess.
But The Orange One has X’red on X that he wants to stay out of this Syrian game. How that will sit with AIPAC will be intersting.
Off topic: Von Der Leyen thinks she has got a deal with the Americas lined up and the media thinks – ‘just the paperwork to do and all will be Hunky Dory.
Does she think that Trump is tariffing like crazy for fun? South America is The USA’s Backyard and if The Orange man from Del Monte says NO – it’s NO.
She is a bit dim unfortunately and I think I prefer the former Drunk. At least he was a laugh.
“What we are witnessing is the destruction of that and imposition of a Saudi-style rule. All the little cultural things that indicate pluralism – from Christmas trees to language classes to winemaking to women going unveiled – have just been destroyed in Aleppo and could be destroyed from Damascus to Beirut.”
Exactly. If Assad is no longer a Leader, how can we expect Christmas trees and wine (for lack of whisky and beer) in the Levant ?
What a perfect sense of timing from our gracious host to have settled in Beirut almost exactly when the whole region is erupting. We could still enjoy the several documentaries from Lebanon he managed to produce despite the looming threat of hostile drones, but never released yet. And let Damascus be the next stop. The Saudi-style rule can wait until Trump and Elon are in the WH. Long live pluralism!!
Do you have a point?
A good angle on Syria with the great Lebanese reporter Ghadi Francis talking to Danny Haiphong.
After 10 min. Syrian journalist Kevork Almassian joins and Francis unfortunately has to leave.
“Connecting the Dots Behind the Chaos in Syria”
6/12/24
25 min.
https://znetwork.org/zvideo/connecting-the-dots-behind-the-chaos-in-syria/
Three days ago Haiphong and that other self-appointed expert Pepe Escobar were assuring us that Russia was preparing a devastating counter attack. That they couldn’t afford to allow the Assad regime to fall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiUs1INDaaU
Instead they appear to have thrown Bashar under the proverbial bus. Possibly they’ll start wooing the new rulers if they want to remain in Syria but they have a growing presence in Libya so maybe they feel they don’t need Syria any more.
Everybody’s been surprised by what happened.
I am not an expert on Syria. And I merely thought the reporter is interesting as it seemed to be her first appearance…
Yes and if you don’t know what’s going on the best policy is to say so, not make things up to try and sound knowledgeable.