When politicians in power are extremely unpopular, they generally turn to militarism and jingoism for a quick boost. Starmer is now the darling of the UK media for his sabre-rattling over Ukraine and is busily churning out tweets of military imagery.
In doing so he is attempting to pose as in defiance of Trump, and capitalise on Trump’s unpopularity in the UK, even though just two days earlier he was fawning on Trump in the White House and inviting him on an “unprecedented” second State visit.
As ever, there is a great deal of smoke and mirrors here. The European leaders are going to come up with an alternative “peace plan” to present to Trump. This will not be along the lines of the G7 Declaration which was strongly anti-Russian. The European leaders acknowledge that the Biden-era G7 Apulia position is now gone.
Instead the new European plan will essentially give Trump pretty well everything he wants, but give the Europeans a ladder to climb down. Starmer is seeking to be hailed as the great bridger of the Atlantic, who explained Trump to Europe and vice versa.
If Trump were an ordinary politician he would then agree to adopt the “European” plan brought to him by Starmer, with a couple of tiny amendments, and then take the joint position into talks with Putin. But Trump being Trump, he might just tell Starmer to stay out of it.
Both the European and American peace plans will involve Putin keeping control over the large majority of the land his troops hold – because otherwise Putin will not agree, and there will be no point. The European plan will have elements designed to blur the sovereignty issue of the Ukrainian land Russia will retain. This will not run once real negotiations with Russia are underway.
As always, money talks and big business is really pulling the strings. Zelensky did not in the event sign the minerals deal with Trump and is now desperate to do so to try to get American cash flowing his way again.
It is worth noting that Starmer’s delusional “Hundred Year Alliance” agreement with Zelensky contained the UK’s attempt to grab the same minerals Zelensky is now asking again to be allowed to hand over to Trump.
You find this in the UK/Ukraine 100 Year Partnership at “Pillar 5, Para 3, article iv”
(iv) supporting development of a Ukrainian critical minerals strategy and necessary regulatory structures required to support the maximisation of benefits from Ukraine’s natural resources, through the possible establishment of a Joint Working Group;
While we are on the subject, most people sensibly ignored the detail of this crazy “100 year” agreement on the entirely sensible grounds that none of it is ever going to happen. But it does contain some remarkable declarations of malevolent intent, of which my favourite is the desire to open a joint online propaganda unit to interfere in the legacy and social media of third countries.
Which we find outlined in fluent Orwellian at “Pillar 7, Para 4”.
Implement joint media initiatives, contributing to coordinated efforts to promote shared values and vision, addressing the information manipulation and malign interference in third party countries. We commit to partnering on joint initiatives such as communication campaigns to mitigate against those threats. We commit to facilitate strengthening of relationships with civil society organisations to support research and the development of counter-FIMI approaches, recognising the importance of independent media and civil society organisations in building societal resilience.
Which is of course precisely what they are always accusing Russia of doing. Indeed alleged Russian social media interference is why they interfered to have the anti-war winner of the first round of the Romanian elections disqualified.
What this plan amounts to is another Integrity Initiative, this time as a UK/Ukrainian co-production.
One thing I learnt in over 20 years as a diplomat is that the public are generally fed lies about diplomatic discussions. Most diplomatic talks generally end up with an agreed communique that is designed to make everyone look good and may only have a slight link to actual events.
This is especially true with regard to human rights, where in my substantial experience claims that human rights abuses were being dealt with by “quiet diplomacy” were almost always a lie.
A British minister cannot meet a Saudi or Chinese minister without being asked if they raised human rights. The answer given is always “yes” and it is almost always untrue, or it was raised so briefly, quietly and apologetically that it is virtually untrue.
So there is a sense in which the Trump/Vance encounter in the Oval Office with Zelensky was refreshing, in that what you saw is what you got. It was only in being in public that it was more bruising than many diplomatic encounters. I suspect it has shortened the war, especially if Trump sticks to the decision to end aid.
Shortening the war would be a good thing. If you think a principle is so important that you believe it is fine for millions of people to die for it – none of whom are yourself – I suggest you reconsider your principles. I am not so exercised about who is the mayor of Russian-speaking Lugansk that I am prepared to have a nuclear war over the issue.
What I find particularly alarming is the continuing comparison of Putin to Hitler, and the allegation that if Putin is not “stopped” in Ukraine, then he will conquer the whole of Europe.
This is a quite extraordinary example of false analogy. Putin has never shown any indication of following a universal ideology he wishes to impose by conquest, or of territorial ambition beyond a small number of Russian-speaking ex-Soviet districts contiguous to Russia.
In addition to which, Russia is gradually winning a war of attrition against a much smaller neighbour, which is to be expected. Ukraine has survived this long with massive Western aid. But the idea that the Russian army is capable of conquering the whole of Europe, when it cannot subdue Kiev, is plainly utter nonsense. Even aside from the fact there is absolutely no desire in Moscow to do so.
Trump has pointed at NATO and revealed the Emperor’s New Clothes. NATO was formed to counter a Soviet alliance that did possess a universal ideology it wished to spread, and did have the military strength to threaten (though it should be stated not even the Soviet Union ever had any intention of invading Britain or formulated plans to do so). That threat has now passed.
The attempt to use the farcical Salisbury incident as evidence of a Russian threat to the UK population is, frankly, pathetic.
It is hard sometimes to follow the workings of the propaganda machine. At what stage did the crazy narrative that Russia blew up its own Nord Stream pipeline get abandoned?
Russia destroying the pipeline was unanimously and loudly proclaimed by the entire legacy media and the entire political class of the Western world. Those of us who pointed out this was not true were denounced and ridiculed. Yet now the narrative has quietly been dropped, and the truth is occasionally acknowledged by the media. Though with no admission of the previous lies.
How does this cycle operate? Is it centrally determined, or is it organic? Were the media really stupid enough to believe Russia destroyed Nord Stream, or were they knowingly lying? How have the German people been persuaded to accept the massive damage the increase in energy costs did to industrial employment? These are fascinating fields of study.
European politicians who have made a career of Russophobe rhetoric are suddenly naked in the breeze. They are charging around banging the drum of war, threatening to mobilise armies they do not possess and convinced that preserving their own place in the socio-economic hierarchy is well worth the threat of nuclear oblivion.
Laughter is the best response to their pretension.
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Craig,
I guess you summed it up by saying this:-
“It is hard sometimes to follow the workings of the propaganda machine.”
PROBLEM
Russia v. Ukraine
SOLUTION
i) Impose sanctions on Russia – https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjw4q7v7ez1o
ii) Insist that the Ukrainian President must first sign over his country’s mineral wealth to the US – or just kick him out of the White House if he raises any questions.
iii) Vote in the UN along with North Korea and Russia against the majority on the issue of Russia/Ukraine.
Did Zelensky walk away from Minsk I and II? Was Zelensky played into provoking a war with US/Western encouraging it?
Not all clear and straightforward.
THERE – YOU HAVE IT – AND WAIT FOR THE 24 HOUR PEACE SOON TO HAPPEN.
What a thoughtful and refreshing antidote to the tsunami of toothless belligerence in recent days. Today’s European politicians are going to be remembered as pitiless genocidaires when it came to defenceless Palestinian women and children, but as complete eunuchs when it came to the destruction of their critical infrastructure and the cessation of their beloved proxy war.
You are quite right in your conclusion. Whatever might be said about the performative rage and posturing of these impotent warmongers, laughter is by far the most appropriate response.
Let’s just enjoy them!
Good article Mr Murray, I’m glad you mentioned some people claiming Russia may invade other European countries, there is no evidence that Putin even wants to take over the whole of Ukraine, he did say once he regretted the break up of the Soviet Union, however he followed up that remark with ”no one would be mad enough to try and recreate it” this last remark is always left out of western MSM reporting.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989 communism ended and both Yeltsin and Putin embraced capitalism, they could see their country which covers 11 time zones and is self sufficient in food and Natural resources doing extremely well by trading with Europe. Hence the US destruction of Nord Stream 2, a double whammy, stop cheap gas reaching its competition in Europe and end German payments to Russia.
This is also in line with the original aims of NATO ‘Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.’ Those were the words of NATO’s first Secretary General, Lord Ismay, when explaining the aims behind the new military alliance (as it was then). Simple rhetoric it may well be, but Ismay’s words seem to be of haunting significance in the world we inhabit more than half a century later.
https://newcoldwar.org/history-nato-keep-russians-americans-germans/
And. “The Russian army … cannot subdue Kiev, is plainly utter nonsense. ” IMO, Russia could subdue Ukraine, in an USA shock and awe way, if it wanted but wisely has chosen not to. The slow, steady meat grinder has been much more effective in reducing the military threat whilst minimising civilian harm. Russia has demonstrated its intelligence in military matters and politics and the EU and NATO have been shown wanting in both areas.
We will have a better idea if/when reasonably reliable casualty figures emerge.
The ‘Shock and Awe’ phase of the Iraq War killed 7,269 civilians according to Iraqi Body Count, other sources give lower figures. So far the UN have identified 11,743 Ukrainian civilians killed since 2022, a number which is universally accepted as representing just the tip of the iceberg. Military deaths were less then 46,000, mainly Iraqis, and even the most conservative estimate for Ukrainian-Russian deaths far exceed that.
Shock and Awe wasn’t just about air power, 1,050 attack drones, nearly 1,300 aerial bombs, and more than 20 missiles have been directed at Ukraine in the past week, ground forces have to advance at speed too. Boots on the ground. It’s here that the Russian’s have failed.
The idea that ‘slow and steady’ (Russia has advanced 40km in the past 12 months, half the speed of a snail) reduces casualties or is even a deliberate strategy is risible.
Unfortunately the laughter is freezing when you see what the incoming German government is planning to do. While 200B, recently 400B Euros were floated as a figure to rearm Germany culture, medicare, social security, education, R&D, public transport etc. are cut down mercilessly. Theatres which need 20k to operate will lose those. Projects with children will lose the 2k which would guarantee their future. The German Film Award which is the equivalent to BAFTA has cut the prize money that had come with the Award for decades. Those were a few million across the board. For many companies they were a lifeline. There was not a peep by the film community over this shocking move. In record time German civil society is being dismantled. The latest cuts in Berlin have already caused a panic among educational institutions. Not to mention the pressure on people who are without a job and will compete in an environment called “job-market” cold as ice. So this is no joke. And just today it was confirmed that LNG prices have increased 300% since 2021. I doubt this hike will stop. I don´t need to tell anyone what that means for the future of German industrial base which disproportionately relies on natural gas. German bakeries already have been ailing under energy costs. Chemical industry and engineering are no better. What Alastair Crooke was warning about has become true faster than GREEN pseudo-transitioners could digest. He spoke about an insane gamble over developing a completely new energy infrastructure not relying on fossile fuels and even abandoning nuclear power plants as an interim solution. What we are looking at is a clusterfuck of problems as high as Mount Everest. With no hope in sight. And the only party that intended to do something about this was treated like an enemy by German MSM. The top 30% are ruining this country and its people with the top 10% calling the shots.
The reality is that Germany and the rest of the West will have to suffer until some adults come forward. Hard times ahead for us all but it will end, possibly violently.
I can only reiterate, or more accurately rephrase in altogether blunter terms, points which I made in a recent post. Namely: start digging your fallout shelter right away. The maniacs running the show across Western Europe will not be satisfied until such measures become eminently necessary
Braw to see that the son of a Scottish woman, Donald Trump, has used his immense power first to liberate his own people from woke/gender oppression and other forms of cultural and neo-imperialism, and then to help bring peace to Ukraine and Gaza. Just as he put the dubious leader of Ukraine in his place, he may still do likewise with UK warmongering/woke puppets such as Starmer and his ‘Scottish boots on the ground’ cheerleader Swinney.
President Trump will also no doubt be interested in the upcoming right to self-determination petition to be submitted by Liberation Scotland to the UN’s C-24 Committee, which the USA could support, if it so wished. That might make for a more interesting discussion with the King of England at Balmoral, whose Westminster parliament is blocking Scots right to self-determination; also bearing in mind the Scots croun has been vacant since the UK ‘union’ hoax, and that Scottish tradition is tae croun oor naitional leeberator….
What makes you think Trump has the slightest respect for self-determination? He’s stated an intention to annex Canada and Panama, buy Greenland and turn Gaza into some kind of Benidorm clone. All done without the slightest concern for the rights of the populations. Trump would probably want to turn Scotland into a giant golf course and forcibly evict the population.
So we give Putin all he wants and green-light him for further “special military operations” against other ex-parts of the Soviet Union? Who’s next, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania??
It won’t just be Putin given the green light. Any and every tinpot dictator will get the message.
The US is out of armaments. It is trying to exit with some shred of dignity while it still can (rather than have Russia simply dictate surrender terms).
Russias terms are the only terms. As Mr Murray mentions there may be some tinkering around the edges but essentially it’s: denazification, no NATO and loss of Crimea and Donbass regions. The west brought this on, not Russia.
Big John.
I think you’ll find its the EU and Nato – that’s currently greenlighting Romanian elections – in “Special Operations” as you put it – to install puppet leaders – however the likes of Georgia and Slovakia – and Hungary aren’t playing ball.
Oh and I’ll take this man’s analysis of the conflict, and what Putin might do, over yours any day.
https://nitter.poast.org/ricwe123/status/1896283120082804944#m
Interesting to note that this excellent speech seems to have been ignored by the UK and US MSM.
Starmer doesn’t give a toss about the people of Britain – its at the stage now with Westminster governments doing whatever it takes to appease big business – which are usually American in nature – and its always at the expense of the public – in Scotland, Starmer’s obedient little Scottish puppet FM Swinney is also making noises at his masters behest, on supporting Ukraine and if needs be sending troops to Ukraine – this is amusing as the puppet Swinney controls no troops whatsoever.
I’m no supporter of the Zionist Trump – however it was interesting to watch him – and his side-kick Vance, slap down that little Neo-Nazi dictator.
I’d also posit that Starmer doesn’t give a toss about Ukraine or Israel. It’s all about him and his imagined importance and place on the world stage. He’d sell his granny to advance himself. A truly 21st century politician.
It is almost comical but we live in a world where a right-wing conservative republican – Trump – and even a hothead anti-communist – Marco Rubio – make more sense on this issue than any other party on the whole of the western political spectrum. What the Trump administration say about solving the conflict in Ukraine, about creating peace etc resonate with my views almost 100%.
It is obvious that if you want peace with someone you cannot go on and keep calling him names or keep taking steps that will infuriate him or keep taking steps that could be seen as hostile by the other side. That is not how you make peace and it was so obvious during the White House meeting with Zelensky that the Trump administration will not commit to this track anymore and therefore put Zelensky in place when he stubbornly tried to get Trump agitated against Russia.
It takes tremendous courage to do what US/Trump try to do here, to reach out its hand during these times to another global power like this to mend their ties, it should be applauded, it should be welcomed, embraced to the fullest so it horrible to see how the rest of the west treat this positive development.
One must be clear that the EU are lead, intellectually, by children. It in such idiocy that during conflict to block all communication with Russia, block Russian media etc. The result is you are lead astray by self-affirming news/views about the conflict, the result is “groupthink”, the result is a “zero-sum game” mentality where Ukraine must win and for Ukraine to win Russia must lose.
There have been so much written about how you solve conflicts and it starts with seeing the Other, put yourself in their shoes and try to understand how they perceive the situation, this is so basic it feels even redundant to type it
This is a good article about it: “The geopolitics of empathy – How our understanding—or misunderstanding—of other countries’ perspectives shapes global order .” by Stephen Walt
“For this reason, one of the lessons I try hardest to impart in my courses is the importance of empathy: the ability to see problems from another person’s (or country’s) perspective. To do this does not require agreeing with their view; it is about grasping how others see a situation and understanding why they are acting as they are. The reason to do this is eminently practical: It’s harder to persuade a rival to alter its behavior if you don’t understand its origins.”
https://www.tbsnews.net/thoughts/geopolitics-empathy-267637
What scares me is to see is how easily duped westerners are, EU leaders create a narrative that EU are threatened and majority of the populace agree to the claim just like that!
How could the same Europe that protested in the streets against the Cold war enmity between West/East and protested against the risk of nuclear war between them, today protest against the prospect of better relationship between the two?! And the European attitude towards risk of nuclear war seems to be met with a ‘so what?’-attitude. What is going on??
Zelensky made a point about that on Fox News after the White House, saying Trump seemed to him to be disrespecting those who had died. Maybe that’s just code for not as good a deal as Zelensky wanted, but he said that’s what he felt, putting his hand to his heart. We don’t use the language of martyrs, as Craig mentioned in the last post, but sentiments can be similar.
Jack
Trump has zero empathy.
Nada.
None.
There’s a lot of wishful thinking going on here.
I am not in a position to assess if Trump has the quality of empathy, but he is showing that he has a lot insight into the current situation by wanting peace and discontinuing a senseless war.
Very helpful article, as always. I remember you advocated a diplomatic solution that included Ukraine ceding Crimea and the Donbas to Russia two years ago. That proposed resolution looks good in today’s situation. There are, I guess, some key questions about Putin’s objectives for Greater Russia. First, the Baltic states, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, that all have significant minority Russoglot populations. They are all members on NATO: will the West defend them? Does Putin wish to reincorporate them into Greater Russia? Poland and Finland are the other NATO members that border Russia: how much of a threat are they perceived to be?
If Trump really wishes to withdraw America from its treaty obligations, then withdrawing troops, missiles, and military installations from those states, will signal acquiescence for a Russian takeover of the Baltic states at least. I don’t think Western Europe is likely to defend them, sadly.
I hope you can give us a considered view of what a realigned Europe might look like in a decade’s time.
Notes on Historical Category D notices.
1993: DA-Notices (Defence Advisory Notices)
The system was renamed to “Defence Advisory Notices” (DA-Notices) to emphasize their advisory, non-mandatory nature. Five standing DA-Notices were established, each covering a specific area (e.g., DA-Notice 1: Military Operations, DA-Notice 2: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Weapons).
2017: DSMA-Notices (Defence and Security Media Advisory Notices)
Following a 2015 review, the system was modernized and rebranded as the Defence and Security Media Advisory (DSMA) Notices in 2017. This is the current framework for reporting restrictions related to national security. The five categories were retained but updated to reflect modern security concerns:
DSMA-Notice 01: Military Operations, Plans & Capabilities
DSMA-Notice 02: Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Weapons and Equipment
DSMA-Notice 03: Ciphers, Communications, and IT Systems
DSMA-Notice 04: Sensitive Personal Information
DSMA-Notice 05: Security and Intelligence Services
The DSMA Committee oversees this system, maintaining its voluntary status.
Voluntary ? but as one Senator in the US recently commented ,they have 6 ways till Sunday to get back at you .
See Piers Morgan for further details
Russia never had any intent to capture Kiev, their first approach was a posture to initiate negotiations, which happened. Narcofuhrer’s presidential term EXPIRED in May 2024, per Ukraine Constitution, which allows No Delay in elections *for any reason*, e.g. martial law. NO agreements signed by Narcofuhrer have Any Validity, so Sir Baby Starver is delusional or deceitful claiming any “Agreement” with the Piano Penis Player.
Art Gardner
How do you know Putin’s intentions?
All we can know is his actions which included storming the Kyiv military airfield. (Note the spelling btw, Kyiv not Kiev)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport
Happy to relate, the attempted coup de main failed.
PS calling Zelensky a Narcofuhrer is childish.
Pot kettle black.
You claim to know Trump’s intentions and you claim to know Putin’s.
Us ‘tankies’ (note childish name calling) aren’t allowed such psychic abilities that you posses.
Note it is Kiev not kyjellyiv,
Good analysis of the Russian defeat at Hostomel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe8AWujGuR0&t=9s
As the man says it was the same ‘decapitation’ plan Russia had used before so Ukraine knew what to expect.
Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections whilst martial law is in force.
“According to Article 83 of the Constitution, parliamentary elections cannot be held during martial law. This article is interpreted in different ways, but in my opinion, it is straightforward and says clearly that the powers of the parliament, which operates during martial law, cannot be terminated. Accordingly, there can be no elections if the legislative branch’s powers cannot be suspended during martial law”, says Olha Aivazovska, Head of the Board of the Civil Network OPORA.
In simple terms, elections can only be held unless changes to Ukraine’s primary law are adopted, which is also impossible under martial law following Article 157 of the Constitution. Ukrainian legislation also prohibits the termination of the powers of state authorities (the President, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers, the National Bank, and some others) under martial law.
In addition, even a change in Ukrainian legislation would not solve the problem of security, financial, and legal factors that complicate the organization of elections in Ukraine during the full-scale war.
If all that is true, which I doubt, the Ukraine constitution must be as undemocratic as you can get. Remember the first post Maidan 2014 law was the repealing of the language laws that gave equal rights to Russian speakers and this was quickly followed by the series of lustration laws that prevented the Maidan and Odessa murderers from being prosecuted for their crimes.
I think the Russia bombed its own pipeline narrative was dropped when Sy Hersh reported it was Biden administration covert op. They went away and decided it was a group of drink Ukrainians on a small yacht.
If I recall correctly, Putin made it clear at the outset that the Minsk agreement should be upheld, and there must be no nukes and no NATO installations in Ukraine. The weapons that have been poured into Ukraine by Biden have tested Putin’s determination to keep the dispute within the borders of Ukraine. He is angry that the US and Europe have provided the means for Russian conscripts to die. He is much more angry that the UK flew sorties over sovereign Russian territory, and has promised retaliation directly, if the peace agreement does not include some acknowledgement from the UK. Biden may have promised Britain the minerals which Trump is diverting away from that defunct contract, and we will plainly be out of pocket if peace cancels the goody bag, but the scenario which our morally corrupt leaders are painting is not sensibly thought through.
Ukraine has been through a terrible experience, just as Victoria Nuland predicted in 2013 when she said ‘we regret the sacrifice of the Ukrainian people’ and ‘fuck Europe’. Everything has gone to plan. Most of Ukraine’s national assets have been pawned for support in their defence of the land, and Zelensky faces a bankrupt nation which will hold him to account in the upcoming elections.
NATO is still building bases across the Black Sea from Russia. American oligarchs still want Russia’s assets, just as they want Iran’s, and even if Trump baulks at genocide to steal them the WEF may still be forcing our European leaders to that particular promise. Peace as compromise, with empty pockets, has little appeal, but it would be the morally correct course of action
” Putin made it clear at the outset that the Minsk agreement should be upheld, ”
Pretty rich as the Russians didn’t uphold it themselves. They were required to withdraw their forces and heavy weapons; they did neither.
Where Putin might invade next is one question. Without US support the Baltic nations are looking somewhat vulnerable but the other question is should he be allowed to keep the spoils of his aggression? It’s telling that Craig acknowledges that these areas were taken by conquest, incorporated into a greater Russia and not liberated in the way we’re told many of the inhabitants wanted.
We know from captured documents that it was certainly Putin’s original plan to occupy the whole of Ukraine and appoint a puppet government of his own choosing.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022
Some people might believe Putin would be satisfied with what he already has but then how could anybody be sure that he would try for the rest of Ukraine once his forces are rested and re-equipped? Those telling us he wouldn’t once assured us that he wouldn’t be so stupid to invade in the first place.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/02/ukraine-where-to-find-the-truth-in-enormous-detail/
Anyone wanting to see what this war has meant for ordinary Ukrainians might be interesting to watch this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5w9MmZT1_Mk&rco=1
I’ve no doubt it’ll have the Tankies heading for their ‘false flag’ comfort blankets and the usual rubbish about ‘Neo-Nazis’ and ‘NATO started it’ but does anybody deserve that (including the civilians in Gaza, OK?).
“Laughter is the best response to their pretension”.
Bang on. We ordinary people just have to wait for the curtain to drop on the tragi – farce that is being played out in front of us. Starmer is an object of ridicule trying to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds as his pathetic apology to Trump today suggests after his weekend antics to protect Zelensky. As Trump banged on with Zelenski “you are gambling with World War III” it applies to Starmer too and all who paraded in front of that nauseous “family” photograph. As you suggest it is Trump who is the little boy exposing the Emperor Zelensky’s lack of clothes despite the fawning of his European, Canadian and USA Democratic Party courtiers.
The Warsaw Pact was created to counter NATO 7 years after the latter was formed. There was no effective alliance before that. Eastern Europe was a wreck. There was a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance. It made, among other things, Finland a neutral state.
NATO was created in the void of a threatening military pact but flush with the usual projection of its own members’ behaviours in the world. Ultimately it was the West that dichotomised the world.