We were searching for a site in the northern Bekaa valley recently bombed by Israel. Hadi knew near which village it was located but, as we drove between large expanses of fertile, well-cultivated fields, it was plain his information was vague.

We pulled up at a garage to ask the way. Lebanon has not gone the way of Western economies in making consumers perform the very service for which they are paying, and in Lebanese service stations they still have attendants. A scruffily dressed old man sat on the front step of a dilapidated and very basic kiosk constructed of concrete blocks. He came over to the driver’s window.

First Hadi ordered fuel, and the old man filled the car, washed the windscreen and took payment. His hair was white and his beard short, but not from the obsessively neat trimming that is universal in Beirut. When he returned with change, Hadi asked him if he knew where to find the bomb site.

The old man replied with questions. I did not understand the Arabic, but from the body language there was a marked shift in the interaction between the two, from the man serving Hadi to the man interrogating Hadi. He lost his shuffle, notably straightened his back and stood taller.

They were talking through the driver’s window, and with a very definite movement the man moved forward and rested his forearm on the sill, intruding his head into the vehicle assertively. He looked at me with searching eyes, and looked at Niels sitting in the back seat with his camera equipment. His questioning of Hadi became terse.

I looked into his eyes. He had the distinct, piercing gaze that I used to note in the special forces officers I occasionally came across in my Foreign Office career. He then walked away from the car, took out his phone and made a call.

After a while he handed the phone to Hadi, who looked both serious and worried. Hadi listened, handed the phone back to the attendant, said goodbye and thank you, and reversed out of the garage. Hadi told us we were not permitted to go to the bomb site.

We had just encountered Hezbollah. The important thing to understand in this encounter is that it is not that the man was an undercover Hezbollah operative posing as a garage attendant. He was a garage attendant who was a Hezbollah operative.

Hezbollah is not an organisation comparable to the IRA, in which a relatively small number of members operated within the context of a community in which they enjoyed very large sympathy. Hezbollah operates in a community in which almost everybody is an activist and pretty well every adult is prepared to pick up a gun or an RPG and knows how to use it.

This is a key to understanding how Hezbollah became the only military force that has ever been able to defeat the IDF in pitched ground warfare. In this respect, Hezbollah’s crucial advantage compared to Hamas is that it has had practical access to weapons deliveries to build its arsenal, whereas Hamas has been greatly constricted by Israel’s control of goods entering Gaza.

Ending the weapons supply to Hezbollah has been a key US/Israeli strategic objective this last year, and they have in large part achieved it. I shall return to that.

On a personal level, this encounter with the garage attendant was fairly typical of my interactions with Hezbollah in my four months in Lebanon. They had detained me in a rather frightening manner on first encounter, and in general treated me with a suspicion which is understandable given my British diplomatic background.

I saw literally thousands of buildings in Lebanon that Israel had destroyed. The most haunting part of the entire experience was the frequent event of finding the clothing and toys of small children among the rubble: I still have bad dreams about it.

However this was the second of the two occasions when we were able to identify that Israel had struck an actual Hezbollah military installation, rather than a civilian building. Both times Hezbollah prevented me from going to see. In terms of maintaining the security of the military site, this strikes me as shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

Having been denied access to that particular bomb site, we drove on into the village and met with some locals Hadi knew. In this small village there had been over 70 Israeli bombings, 8 of them since the ceasefire.

They took me to one large house which had been completely destroyed, a pile of rubble spread over a large area. Twelve members of the same family had been killed in this house, seven of them children. The head of the family had left in late afternoon to go to the butcher’s to buy dinner, when his home and family was destroyed behing him.

The explosion was so enormous that the body of one of the children was found in the neighbouring orchard of olive trees, clean across the road, about seventy yards away. Many of the olive tress had been shredded and debris from the house was strewn across the field and beyond.

The next house was not greatly damaged, but there a father and his two daughters were killed by the shock wave as they sat on their terrace drinking coffee.

There are so many important points to make about Hezbollah, but let me start with these three.

The first is that support for Hezbollah among their own Shia communities in Lebanon is extremely strong. They are far more than a military organisation. They are Lebanon’s largest legitimate political party.

At the 2022 Hezbollah received 19.9% of the vote, and their close ally the Amal Movement received another 10.5%. The party with the second highest vote behind Hezbollah, the neo-fascist Lebanese Forces, received 11.6% of the vote.

[The Lebanese Forces political party should not be confused with the Lebanese Armed Forces, with which it has no connection. The Lebanese Armed Forces remain under effective US control and fired not a shot against the Israeli invasion and occupation. But like so much in Lebanon, the situation should not be simplified and the majority of the rank and file of the LAF are Shia Muslims sympathetic to Hezbollah, and a large majority of the rank and file of any denomination would be happy to fight the Israelis were they ever allowed to do so.]

Under Lebanon’s extraordinary constitution, Lebanese Forces with 11.6% received 19 seats in parliament while Hezbollah with 19.9% received 15 seats. Of which again more later.

But when it comes to political legitimacy, it is worth noting that the combined Hezbollah/Amal vote percentage is equal to the Labour Party percentage at the last General Election in the UK. There is no argument that Hezbollah are not a legitimate democratic political force.

The second point is that it is absolutely wrong to see Lebanon in purely sectarian terms. Hezbollah has supporters and allies across all religions in Lebanon and, in a country where politics is officially and constitutionally organised on religious lines (a “confessional” constitution), there are minor parties of all religions aligned with Hezbollah, of which several had ministers until appointment of the new Cabinet last month (of which again, more later).

Perhaps a quarter of those at the funeral for Nasrallah were not Shia Muslims.

The third point is that Hezbollah is much more than a political party with a military wing. In a country in which central government has all but collapsed (Lebanon has no income tax), Hezbollah provides hospitals, schools, banking, pensions and welfare benefits.

When Niels and I witnessed refugee returns to evacuated areas following the “ceasefire”, a very substantial percentage of the population were waving Hezbollah flags or Lebanese flags, with some waving both. Hezbollah is an integral part of Lebanese society, entirely born within the country out of the resistance to Israel’s 1982 occupation, and is in no sense alien or anti-Lebanese.

The elephant in the room is that in the UK and other Western states, this highly complex social and political movement is designated as a terrorist organisation in its entirety. Ironically, the justification for this given in Westminster in 2019 was that Hezbollah was destabilising the Middle East and prolonging the conflict in Syria – where the very Western powers that proscribed Hezbollah have just assisted another proscribed terrorist group into power.

The truth is that terrorist proscription by the NATO powers of organisations in the Middle East is simply a tool for taking whatever decisions are expedient at that moment to promote the interests of apartheid Israel. The “terrorist acts” of Hezbollah that led to proscription of the entire organisation in 2019 consisted of fighting ISIS, Al Qaeda and Al Nusra in Syria.

We all suffer from the temptation of assuming that others share our prejudices. I assume that like me, many in the West find it difficult to empathise with Hezbollah because of its Islamic philosophy and – I know this is petty – appearance.

Hassan Nasrallah was the most important and steadfast leader of resistance to the mass murderous Zionist project of the last forty years. He was also, by all accounts, a hugely charismatic figure to Arabic speakers. But his very appearance made it easy for him to be represented to Western audiences as an alienating, even evil, character, due to the state promoted Islamophobia in the Western world which has been universally projected in the media this last quarter century.

But here honesty is required. I myself do not like to see political leaders with a religious function and am simply against theocratic rule. I am entirely in favour of freedom of religion, but utterly opposed to religion ruling any state.

There is an element of smoke and mirrors here. In the glorious mosaic of Lebanon, Hezbollah exist jumbled with those of other sects and religions, and in practice rub along very well.

Nasrallah spoke like all committed Islamists of his desire to seeing a united Muslim rule over Muslim lands, with the state under firmly religious leadership and sharia law. But in practice Hezbollah are highly tolerant.

In those large areas of Lebanon where they both have physical military control and dominate the elected local authority, Hezbollah do not ban the sale of alcohol by the Christian minority or enforce hair covering, even on Muslims.

This is an area where my prejudices were disabused. I did not expect to find this.

All this caused me some difficulty in Lebanon. I was frequently asked whether I supported Hezbollah. As I was spending much of my time in those areas attacked by Israel – which largely are the Hezbollah areas – in general the question came from Hezbollah supporters.

I would always reply that I supported absolutely the right of occupied people to conduct armed resistance, and the duty to do everything possible to prevent genocide. Both are established principles of international law. But I did not support Hezbollah per se, and would not vote for it were I Lebanese, because it is an openly Islamist organisation and I am opposed to theocratic rule and religious legal codes.

Being in Lebanon did however allow me to overcome some of the gulf of my cultural understanding. The practice of calling those killed by Israel “martyrs” and frequently referring to them as such in conversation, is alien to a Western ear where the word has largely outdated religious connotations.

When you live amongst a community where everybody has friends or relatives who have been killed in the decades-long aggression of Israel, the revering of the fallen as martyrs, and their omnipresence in everyday thought, starts to make much more sense.

Similarly to Western eyes the widespread display of large images of the “martyrs” is peculiar. These are along every roadside and atop every ruin. There are always posters at the site where the person was killed, and frequently dozens of other posters of that individual at sites of importance to them.

I overcame my incomprehension of this practice by thinking of it in reference to my own culture, that these were posters of people put up to mark where they fought and died to defend their wee bit hill and glen. In those terms it made sense to me.

I am extremely conscious that religious faith has played a very positive role in both Palestine and South Lebanon in enabling people to endure the unendurable and to maintain Resistance against impossible odds. But it is not possible to ignore the fact that their remain substantial differences between my world view and an Islamist world view.

This has been brought into urgent focus by the attitude of many Sunni Muslims to the overthrow of Assad in Syria. In my world view, this has been a disaster for the Palestinians. It has seriously and perhaps permanently damaged the flow of arms and other resources to Hezbollah, the Palestinians’ most important ally. And it has enabled the Greater Israel project to expand substantially into Syria.

Try now to imagine that you are a Sunni Muslim scholar who believes that only by becoming Sunni Muslim can people obey God. You believe that the benefit to mankind of bringing Sunni Muslim rule to most of Syria outweighs the loss of part of Syria to Israel. You believe that Palestinian martyrs killed by Israel are going immediately to Heaven anyway, so in spiritual terms there is no real loss to the “martyrs”.

That really is the position of many of the leaders of the Saudi- and Gulf-sponsored Muslim religious community. Just like there are a great many shades of Christian, there are a great many shades of Islam and there are many Muslims, including Sunni Muslims, who would not share that viewpoint. But to a religious Islamist it makes perfect sense.

I cannot find it again because it was deep in replies on a thread, but I had a very interesting exchange with a Muslim intellectual on Twitter on precisely this topic. He accused me of “orientalism” for denigrating an Eastern spiritual viewpoint in favour of a Western secularist narrative, in seeing the installation of HTS as a reverse for Palestine. He pointed out that Hamas, a fellow Sunni Islamist movement, had welcomed the triumph of HTS.

The exchange was welcome for its honesty and intellectual acuity. I said I did not believe Edward Said would have welcomed the accompanying expansion of Israel into Syria or cutting off of supplies to Hezbollah. He called in a nephew of Said to bolster his view that my viewpoint is orientalist.

I have thought about this deeply; I do not think my viewpoint can fairly be described as orientalist. The truth is that all mainstream Western thought would have entirely concurred with the view that the expansion of rule by a particular religious sect was more important than associated temporal reverses that did not affect the faith of the people: but western thought was exactly that 500 years ago.

I do not see my view as orientalist. I see it as anti-medievalist.

The fall of the Assad regime was deeply desired by western neoliberals and Zionists in order to replace it with a western democratic model, and they are desperately pretending that is what they have got in al-Jolani. As atrocities against Shia, Allaouites and Christians in Syria mount, the one thing that cannot be disputed is that al-Jolani is steadfastly Zionist, as he allows Israel daily to occupy more of Syria and destroy more of its infrastructure, without a single shot fired in response.

There is no doubt that the position of the Resistance to an expansionist apartheid Israeli colonial project worsened considerably since my arrival in Lebanon in October. While Israel could not progress a ground offensive, the almost total absence of any air defences for Lebanon meant it could murder and destroy with impunity from the air.

Israel embarked on a campaign of devastation of purely civilian areas by aerial bombardment. Of that I am an eye witness. I can say from personal inspection that the claims that the tens of thousands of homes destroyed had any military use are a massive lie.

With no defence against a relentless bombing campaign, and with most of their leadership eliminated, Hezbollah were obliged to accede to a suicidally unbalanced “ceasefire agreement”. It is plain on the actual face of the agreement that only one side will cease fire.

All Lebanese groups are to cease fire without qualification whereas Israel is only to cease “offensive” operations. Israel of course claims all its attacks as defensive. This is absolute nonsense, but despite over 500 violations of the ceasefire agreement, killing hundreds of people, Israel has not been held accountable because Hezbollah acceded to a ceasefire guaranteed by a “Mechanism” which is chaired by a United States General.

I think my discussion on this point with the UN Spokesman in Lebanon was extremely important, especially where he explicitly states that the Ceasefire Agreement was drafted by the USA. This link takes you to the key point in the interview.

The members of the “Mechanism” overseeing the ceasefire are the United States, France, Israel (sic), and the Lebanese government of General Aoun, a total US puppet.

Furthermore while the Ceasefire Agreement provides for a zone south of the Litani river from which Hezbollah must remove its weapons, it also calls for Hezbollah disarmament throughout the whole of Lebanon, which the Israelis and Americans have used to justify numerous continuing Israeli strikes in the Bekaa Valley, the Syrian border and even Beirut.

Hezbollah are not a formal party to the Agreement but it was sanctioned by them before signature. Personally I find it difficult to imagine that Nasrallah would ever have accepted such a position.

At the same time, Hezbollah’s domestic political position has been also greatly weakened. They were obliged to accept effectively the US imposition of General Aoun as President, which they had been resisting for over two years. They also then found themselves accepting his nomination of the openly anti-Hezbollah Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister.

I referred earlier to Lebanon’s “confessional” constitutional arrangements, and said I would give more detail. The President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni and the Speaker of Parliament a Shiite.

But it does not stop there. The governing agreement specifies the division of ministerial positions too. Not only between Sunni, Shia and Christian, but to include several other groupings, of which the best known is Druze and there are others, particularly various specific sects of Christianity.

Hezbollah has operated through the Amal movement in providing the Shiite ministers, but it is a key fact that it has always had important allies among Christian anti-Israeli occupation factions who have filled important ministerial posts.

The loss of Hezbollah power within Lebanon is to be found within the detail of all these ministries. In claiming to appoint a “technocratic”, apolitical administration, Aoun and Salam have in fact excluded most of Hezbollah’s support.

It is in practice almost impossible to find a Shiite in Lebanon who is not pro-Hezbollah, but Aoun and Salam have certainly done their best. More pertinently, they have almost totally excluded Hezbollah and anti-Zionist sympathisers from the ministerial representation of Sunni and the assorted minority and smaller Christian groups, while simultaneously boosting the de facto influence of the fascist Lebanese Forces sympathisers.

Hezbollah has not been this politically weak in the Lebanese institutions for 20 years, which is why the show of mass popular support at Nasrallah’s funeral was so important to them. However, given Lebanon’s electoral system with its deliberate Christian bias, piling up popular support is of little use to Hezbollah electorally. There are Christian MPs in parliament elected with under 500 votes, while Hezbollah could put on another 100,000 votes without significantly increasing their representation.

Crucially the “Ministerial statement” of the aims of the new government excluded resistance to Israel as an objective – a key change – and specified the state’s monopoly on carrying arms, a reference to the full disarmament of Hezbollah.

Finally, of course, Hezbollah’s archenemies, HTS, are now in power in Damascus. Hezbollah fought off repeated Al Qaeda/Al Nusra/ISIS attempts to invade Lebanon and also intervened against these forces within Syria. Al-Jolani coming to power represents a major disruption to Hezbollah’s supply lines from Iran.

The US and Israel are attempting to turn up this pressure by frequent aerial attacks on border crossings from Syria and on Hezbollah individuals within Lebanon. Recently they took the additional measure of banning pilgrimage flights to and from Iran, which greatly angered the Shia community and was aimed at cutting off a route for physical supplies of cash.

What is uncertain is what secret accommodations General Aoun may have reached with Hezbollah, over whether their physical disarmament throughout Lebanon under SCR 1701 and the Ceasefire Agreement is a genuine process or a show. Politically, Aoun and Salam have strongly planted their banner for real disarmament of Hezbollah.

What appears beyond dispute is that the Israelis receive a continued flow of intelligence from Lebanese sources on Hezbollah personnel movements and sites, and the US-sanctioned intense Israeli bombing campaign shows no sign of abating.

We can add to this sad fact that Israel was able to use the Ceasefire Agreement to occupy parts of Southern Lebanon which Hezbollah had successfully defended during the war, and that Israel has destroyed by demolition thousands of homes and other civilian buildings under cover of the ceasefire to add to those destroyed during the war.

Indeed Israel demolishes more buildings in Southern Lebanon every day still, and has now destroyed over 90,000 buildings in Lebanon in total. As I predicted, Israel is building 5 permanent military outposts in Southern Lebanon and has made plain it has no intention of leaving.

The US puppet government in Beirut, like the US puppet government in Damascus, plainly has no intention of any realistic action against de facto Israeli annexation of its land. While Hezbollah has signalled a reversion to past tactics of guerilla warfare, I have serious doubts about both its current capacity, both political and military.

Of the enduring heroism of the people of South Lebanon I have no doubt, and I also have no doubt that as Israel is maintaining an illegal occupation, their legal right of armed resistance in unimpeachable.

It is however foolish not to acknowledge that with Israel expanding into Lebanon and Syria, with US puppet regimes in Syria and Damascus, with genocide about to restart in Gaza and spreading into the West Bank, and with an apparently crazed level of open Zionist support from Trump that is in fact only more honest than the pro-Genocide positions of the large majority of Western governments, the current position looks bleak indeed.

The only grounds for hope is that I cannot imagine that the people of the region are going to tolerate Israeli collaborationist regimes in Damascus, Beirut and Ramallah much longer. Indeed with slight variations you might say the same of the entire Arab worlds.

I hope you will forgive this being a very personal post as I try to make sense of my experiences and assimilate much new knowledge into my view of the worlds.

I went to Lebanon knowing literally nobody in the country, and with an introduction to just one person who helped us through immigration, but whose assistance thereafter did not work out. I did so accompanied by Niels as cinematographer, despite my never really having worked in video before, and my not being very accomplished at it. On top of which we had no financial resources except for our crowdfunding, which was not going well.

I now realise just how deeply ignorant I was about Lebanon before arriving.

The truth is, I wanted to go to Gaza but could find no way to get in. I had then had applied to Israel for the required permission from COGAT to enter the West Bank, but had been refused. So Lebanon was the one place under Israeli aggression where I could actually hope to get in to document and report on Israeli atrocities.

This venture was also born out of a rather desperate feeling that I must try to do something. I had been involved in the genesis of the ICJ case and in international campaigning for Palestine, but felt so helpless watching murdered children in Gaza every day on social media, that I felt compelled to do more.

With war against the Israeli invaders raging in Lebanon, I admit also had a compulsion to share at least some of the danger of those putting their lives at stake. In truth, I felt something of a fraud to be writing about it from home if I was not prepared to experience it.

Well, at times Lebanon really was dangerous for us, but I am extremely proud of what Niels and I achieved. The six mini-documentaries reached millions of people and I think genuinely informed the Western public. I think the interview with the UN was extremely revealing and important and wish I had been able to get a rather wider audience for it. On top of which we produced numerous shorter video pieces, written articles and interviews with alternative media outlets across the globe, as well as doing a lot of Arab mainstream media.

In the end we had to leave because it proved simply not possible to meet the substantial costs of the venture by individual subscriptions and donations, and I ran out of money. It was a bold experiment in being able to do the kind of real, on-the-ground journalism that legacy media has abandoned, but to continue would require more fundraising ability or organisational ability than I possess.

There is no doubt that we suffered – and still suffer – massive social media suppression, and this limitation of reach is what crippled fundraising efforts. Essentially we were asking the same people for donations again and again, which is both impractical and, I admit, I found personally difficult and undignified.

So I shall continue reporting from my base in Scotland, travelling the world as occasion demands. My knowledge has been hugely expanded by my time in Beirut. I will now largely revert to written rather than video format. The struggle for justice goes on, and my commitment to it remains.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a Patreon account and a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

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On 26 January, 26 unarmed civilians were shot dead by Israel and 147 wounded in a massacre observed by heavily armed UN Peacekeepers who did not intervene. I asked the UN the very hard questions which nobody else is asking them.

The civilians were simply attempting to return to their homes in accordance with both UNSCR 1701 and the current ceasefire agreement, and indeed UNIFIL has a specific mandate under 1701 to assist displaced people to return.

So what has gone wrong with UNIFIL? Is this Srebrenica syndrome? What is the purpose of the heavy weaponry deployed by the UN’s best-equipped peacekeeping force, if it can never be fired? Why is the UN failing to monitor the hundreds of Israeli breaches of the Ceasefire Agreement? Why is the UN serving on a committee under a US General?

These and other questions I put to UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti. I did so in my usual, I hope courteous, manner. The result is a fascinating conversation which I believe is an extremely important piece of documentation of institutional failure to confront Israeli and US aggression at a critical time for the entire world.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

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Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
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Four UN Special Rapporteurs have written jointly to the UK government demanding explanation of its inappropriate persecution of journalists and political activists under the Terrorism Act. They state that those persecuted:

appear to have no credible connection to “terrorist” or “hostile” activity

The cases taken up by the United Nations are those of Johanna Ross (Ganyukova), John Laughland, Kit Klarenberg, Craig Murray (yes, me), Richard Barnard and Richard Medhurst. The UN letter is signed by:

Ben Saul
Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism

Irene Khan
Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression

Gina Romero
Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association

Ana Brian Nougrères
Special Rapporteur on the right to privacy

Under this UN special procedure, the letter is sent to the government in question which has sixty days to respond. This letter was sent by the UN to Starmer’s government on 4 December. No reply having been received, it has now been published.

It is worth noting that even with the UN letter on its desk and ignored, Starmer’s government in fact stepped up the use of the Terrorism Act against pro-Palestinian journalists and activists in this period. The cases of Asa Winstanley, Sarah Wilkinson and Tony Greenstein, among others, happened after the letter was drafted.

I should be clear that I was, working with Justice for All International (for which we had a crowdfunder last year in relation to the Assange case at the UN), heavily involved in assisting with preparation of this initiative, and made three visits to the UN in Geneva on the subject together with Sharof Azizov, and on one occasion Richard Medhurst. Your subscriptions and donations to this blog are the only funding I have to make such activity possible, so thank you.

The letter is in two parts. The first consists of an outline of the information received by the UN on each case and a request for a response from the British government.

But the second part is a devastating critique of the UK’s terrorism laws and their inappropriate use to stifle dissent and freedom of expression. This legal analysis on lack of conformity with the UK’s human rights obligations is not dependent on any of the particular cases cited.

While we do not wish to prejudge the accuracy of these allegations, we
express our concern regarding the potential misapplication of counter-terrorism laws
against journalists and activists who were critical of the policies and practices of
certain governments, which may unjustifiably interfere with the rights to freedom of
expression and opinion and participation in public life, lead to self-censorship and
have a serious chilling effect on the media, civil society and legitimate political and
public discourse.
We are particularly concerned by the broad scope of section 12(1A) and
schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act 2000 and schedule 3 of the Counter-Terrorism and
Border Security Act 2019…

We are concerned at the vagueness and overbreadth of the offence in
section 12(1A) of the Terrorism Act 2000, which criminalizes expressing an opinion
or belief that is supportive of a proscribed organisation and being reckless as to
whether it encouraged support for that organisation…

The term “support” is undefined in the Act and in our view is vague and
overbroad and may unjustifiably criminalize legitimate expression.

…the meaning of expressing support for a
proscribed organization is ambiguous and could capture speech that is neither
necessary nor proportionate to criminalize, including legitimate debates about the de-
proscription of an organization and disagreement with a government’s decision to
proscribe…

We note that there is no requirement that the expression of support relate to
the commission of violent terrorist acts by the organization. As such, the offence may
unjustifiably criminalize the expression of opinion or belief that is not rationally,
proximately or causally related to actual terrorist violence or harms. The offence
further does not require any likelihood that the support will assist the organization in
any way. It goes well beyond the accepted restrictions on freedom of expression under
international law concerning the prohibition of incitement to violence or hate speech…

We note that some proscribed organizations are de facto authorities
performing a diversity of civilian functions, including governance, humanitarian and
medical activities, and provision of social services, public utilities and education.
Expressing support for any of these ordinary civilian activities by the organization
could constitute expressing support for it, no matter how remote such expression is
from support for any violent terrorist acts by the group…

Further, the section 12(1A) offence does not require the person to intend to
encourage others to support the organization…

We are further concerned that the absence of legal certainty may have a
chilling effect on the media, public debate, activism, and the activities of civil society,
in a context where there is a heightened public interest in discussion of the conflict in
the Middle East, including the conduct of the parties and the underlying conditions
conducive to violence in the region. We are further concerned that a person could be
prosecuted for isolated remarks or sentences that mischaracterize the overall position
of the individual, or despite the individual’s intentions or continued and express
disavowal of terrorist violence, given the subjectivity and contested meanings of
certain expressions in relation to sensitive or controversial political conflicts…

We encourage your Excellency’s Government to repeal section 12(1A), or
otherwise to amend it to protect freedom of expression, and to develop prosecutorial
guidelines for its appropriate use to avoid the unnecessary or disproportionate
incrimination of political dissent…

We are concerned that police powers at UK border areas and ports under
schedule 7 may be unjustifiably used against journalists and activists who are critical
of Western foreign policy. We note that the examination of each journalist named in
this communication under schedule 7 was premeditated, and that the examination,
confiscation of devices, and DNA prints were conducted despite the apparent absence
of a credible “terrorist” connection. We are concerned that such powers carry a risk of
intimidating, deterring, and disrupting the ability of journalists to report on topics of
public importance without self-censorship…

We are concerned that the distinction between “examination” and “detention”
under the Act is artificial given the punitive sanctions for of non-compliance, and that
this distinction may be inconsistent with the accepted meaning of “arrest” or
“detention” under article 9 of the ICCPR. We are further concerned that the extensive
powers authorised under section 2 do not require any degree of suspicion that a person
falls within the meaning of “terrorist” at section 40(1)(b). The extreme breadth of
such power enables unnecessary, disproportionate, arbitrary or discriminatory
interference with an individual’s rights, including freedom from arbitrary detention,
freedom of movement under article 12(1) of the ICCPR, and the rights to leave and
enter one’s own country under article 12(2) and (4) of the ICCPR…

we refer your
Excellency’s government to article 17 of the ICCPR which requires that “[n]o one
shall be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful interference with [their] privacy, family,
home or correspondence, nor to unlawful attacks on [their] honour and reputation”.
We note that several journalists detained under schedule 7 have had their electronic
devices confiscated for a significant period of time and have not been updated on the
use, retention or destruction of their data, or advised in relation to their personal data
protection rights.

We urge your Excellency’s Government to consider the growing number of
instances where schedule 7 may have been inappropriately directed towards
journalists and activists, and to consider addressing this through amendments to the
legislation, guidance for relevant officials, and training of border security officers. We
further encourage your Excellency’s Government to address the judiciary’s concerns
regarding the retention of electronic data

It is a stunning letter well worth reading in full; the legal language and diplomatic formality does not disguise the extreme concern of the UN at the extraordinary authoritarian attack on freedom of speech in the UK.

I might reveal that some of the UN Special Rapporteurs who signed were very sceptical of the issue until studying the details. One told me personally they were too busy to look at such a minor problem; their attitude changed completely when faced with papers on the cases involved.

There is no sign the UN has given the Starmer government pause; human rights are extremely low on their agenda. Support for Israel and the crushing of pro-Palestinian sentiment, or of any criticism of western foreign policy, is extremely high on their agenda.

The legislation concerned has been brought into disrepute by the widespread support in public from Establishment figures for HTS in Syria, even though it remains a proscribed organisation and any expression of support is an offence under the Terrorism Act. To my knowledge, not one person has been charged or even questioned for supporting the HTS coup in Syria.

This occurred after the UN letter, but they could now mention extreme arbitrariness in police and prosecutorial application of the law in their critique. The Terrorism Act is being used to criminalise peaceful criticism of western foreign policy. There can be no doubt about that at all.

It also remains the case that there has not been one reference in UK mainstream media to the persecution of dissident journalists using terrorism laws. I don’t expect the prostitute stenographers to power to change that by covering this censure from the United Nations.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

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We could very easily – in fact more easily – have made these mini-documentaries featuring the bodies of children slaughtered by Israel and the hideous aspect of the maiming of tens of thousands, or focusing on the tears of the bereaved and orphaned.

We chose to go a different way and make that unavoidably implicit, but not shown, in the interests of attracting and engaging the widest audience possible.

Yet I believe what we do show highlights Israeli barbarity and makes it stark in another way. I would be grateful for your thoughts.

———————–

To be blunt, our three months in Lebanon have made a significant financial loss. I am delighted with the output of six mini-documentaries and numerous short video reports and articles, some of which individually had millions of viewers. But to date the model of reader-sponsored real overseas journalism is not proven nor stable.

If you have not yet contributed financially, I should be grateful if you could do so. If you have contributed, perhaps you could help further by encouraging others to do so. I would as always stress I do not want anybody to contribute if it causes them the slightest financial hardship.

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
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Yesterday, not only did Israel fail to evacuate its army from Southern Lebanon as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement, Israel also shot over 130 Lebanese civilians attempting to return home in accordance with the deal, killing 23 and wounding 109 (of whom some are in critical condition).

This included a 12 year old boy wounded in the neck in Kfarkela, standing right next to my local producer Mahmood. I was twenty yards away and on my way to them. Four were killed in Kfarkela and overnight the Israeli army demolished numerous homes there in “punishment”.

Over 100 people shot by the Israelis today in Lebanons, with 11 dead. A 12 year old boy was wounded by Israeli fire standing right next to one of my team, just before this. pic.twitter.com/wsMp7XCiKu

— Craig Murray (@CraigMurrayOrg) January 26, 2025

Apart from one Lebanese army solider, all of the dead were civilians simply attempting to return to their homes. At least five of the dead were children. All were shot, not bombed.

Israel’s excuse for not withdrawing is that the ceasefire agreement is not fulfilled, in that Hezbollah have not been disarmed south of the Litani river, and that the Lebanese army has not assumed control.

I have spent every waking hour of three days travelling the entire southern border (remember Lebanon is a very small country; the entire country is the area of Yorkshire or Connecticut – the demarcated border region is much smaller still).

I can guarantee the Lebanese army is fully in control of the area. There are army checkpoints at every major crossroads and town entrance and at every track into the hills. What is more to the point, I saw nobody at all except for the Lebanese army carrying weapons.

Hezbollah are a significant political presence still – they are the largest political party in Lebanon – but they are not carrying arms in the ceasefire zone south of the Litani. Furthermore the Lebanese army has indeed occupied and taken over or dismantled Hezbollah’s military positions in this zone. They have confiscated over 50 arms caches.

The only areas of Southern Lebanon not under the control of the Lebanese armed forces are those areas occupied by the Israeli army.

The role of the Lebanese army is extremely dubious, but 100% in Israel’s favour. The Lebanese army is fully under US control. Literally, 50% of the salary of every single Lebanese soldier is directly paid by the US Government.

Yesterday the Lebanese army simply watched the Israeli army massacre Lebanese civilians. If the Lebanese army was protecting anybody yesterday, it was protecting the Israeli Defence Force.

Sill more extraordinary, the new Lebanese Government failed to protest at the Israeli failure to withdraw, and the Trump administration has subsequently announced that Lebanon has agreed to extend the withdrawal deadline until 18 February.

In fact neither Israel nor the USA ever had the slightest intention of IDF withdrawal. Israel has demolished more than 2,000 Lebanese homes during the ceasefire period, about half of them in towns and villages which Israel was unable to reach during the fighting but has occupied during the ceasefire.

I visited the city of Khiam yesterday and was simply stunned by the scale of devastation. Over 1,000 homes have been demolished by Israel in Khiam.

Amongst all the debris, I managed to track down the piano of Dr Julia Ali, which became an internet meme after she posted video of herself playing it in her beautiful home, and then Israeli soldiers mocking it after the home was devastated.

The house is an interesting case study. The Zionist propagandists replied to the internet videos by stating that there was a Hezbollah rocket installation in the garden. I searched extensively and found absolutely no evidence this was anything except a civilian home. There were no signs of anything unusual in the garden.

The house was not bombed – it was part demolished with explosives, shot up and set on fire, after being used as an Israeli barracks. The surviving furniture was ripped up with knives, and the mirrors, chandeliers, piano, porcelain and crystal all smashed.

Women’s clothing was strewn all around, as were dolls. Large obscene drawings and Hebrew graffiti were painted on the walls. In a room used for meals, used paper plates were all upside down on the floor and had been used to smear the food around. The floor was littered with food tins, used plastic cutlery, empty drink bottles and human excrement, again deliberately smeared around.

Throughout the building and garden were scattered numerous ammunition boxes, from small arms to tank rounds. All of it was USA manufactured.

All of the television sets, satellite receivers, music systems and kitchen electricals were ripped out, as was the generator set.

I went to the neighbouring villa, where a lady owner was salvaging from the wreckage with her son in law. Again, all of the electrical equipment and the generator set had been taken. Also disappeared was jewellery, a highly valuable collection of antique rugs, and significant paintings. None of this was among the rubble.

We investigated further in the area and could find no instance of any TVs or valuables, or their remnants, being discovered in the rubble. We also found instances of shops, particularly a designer clothes shop and a phone shop, whose entire content had been looted.

A soldier cannot put a generator set or an antique carpet in his backpack. This industrial scale of looting has to be officially sanctioned by the IDF and involve military transport vehicles, or vehicles requisitioned by the military.

It may not compare to the murder of children, but is itself a war crime. The western MSM, which made a huge noise about Russian looting in Ukraine, has never mentioned this massive Israeli looting.

The Ceasefire Agreement was a disgrace that was bound to lead to this conclusion. The notion that its monitors, France and the United States, are in any sense neutral is laughable. Israel has no intention whatsoever of withdrawing from Southern Lebanon and continues daily destruction of Lebanese homes while constructing at least five fortified military bases.

What I still find astonishing is that new Lebanese President Aoun and Prime Minister Mikati have agreed to extend the Israeli occupation on these obviously false pretexts. Israel has committed over 120 documented violations of the ceasefire. Hezbollah has committed one, in early December, in response to multiple Israeli attacks on civilians.

Hezbollah is in real danger of looking a busted flush. It agreed to disarm in the ceasefire deal, which would leave Israel able to annex Southern Lebanon with no serious opposition on the ground. It does seem that Hezbollah’s war losses and the assassination of its leadership cadre has left it incapable of any significant military response to extended Israeli occupation. Its response to yesterday’s massacre has been only rhetoric.

As of today, Israel appears well set to consolidate its extension of Greater Israel into both Southern Lebanon and Southern Syria, with the active complicity of US backed governments in both Beirut and Damascus.

In the long term, I believe the atrocities of Israel will be rejected by the people of the region and bring about its downfall. But currently it is Netanyahu and Trump who are smiling.

———————————–

We have no finance at all for this work except our readers. It is frankly very expensive to keep this project going in Beirut with this level of production and front-line activity.

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Our new mini-documentary from the Middle East shows again the kind of reporting that no Western media either can or will do.

We hope to visit Damascus where Western media is giving entirely sycophantic and false coverage to the new HTS regime, praising the return of Pringles to the shops while ignoring massacres.

But we are completely out of funding. I have made an overall loss now in five figures on our work in the Middle East since October.

There has been not one mainstream journalist here showing the truth of Israeli bombing and occupation in Lebanon. There are some excellent local journalists but we have a far greater reach in the West, with some of our individual videos getting millions of views there.

The days when the MSM would employ honest foreign correspondents like Robert Fisk are sadly long gone. The likes of the BBC and the CNN cover Lebanon and Syria through an exclusively Zionist lens from Tel Aviv.

I hope to pave the way for citizen activism journalism that does not merely analyse from afar, but reports from the ground, even and perhaps especially in difficult or dangerous locations. If it goes well I entertain the dream of establishing a permanent centre here, employing local staff, which could then host star visiting “new media” journalists for extended periods.

Unfortunately to date I have not been able to make a voluntary donation and subscription funding model work, even for the low-cost guerilla-filming approach Niels and I have been adopting. That may be because the model is not possible, or just reflect my own limits of reach and my lack of fundraising ability.

It is certain that there has been extreme social media suppression of our output, but we have still gained a wide audience. I am therefore making an attempt to appeal for support for what I believe to be not just worthwhile but vital work, as historic changes unfold in the Middle East.

I do not back away from the avowed aim of defeating Imperialism and the Greater Israel project, with the weapons of truth and light.

But if this appeal does not work quickly, we will be forced to give up and return to Europe.

Unless you are so wealthy it does not matter to you, I would much prefer you not to give again if you already have supported. We really need to widen the number of financial supporters, and perhaps instead you can recommend to others.

I absolutely do not want anybody to give anything if it causes them the least financial hardship.

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Subscriptions are also very welcome. They fund all my work.

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The Genocide of the Palestinian people began 76 years ago. What may be drawing to a close is merely a particularly intense phase in the Genocide.

Gaza is destroyed. 92% of its housing has gone. Its water treatment and sanitation, electricity generation, food processing, farming, and fishing are all now incapable of sustaining much life. Its hospitals, health centres, universities, colleges, and schools are all now destroyed, as are its municipal buildings, waste disposal, road surfaces, drainage channels, theatres, cultural centres, cinemas, cafés.

What is left is 1.8 million cold and starving people, malnourished, soaked, ill-clothed, living in tents and defecating in trenches. Tens of thousands will die in these conditions however fast aid comes – and you can be 100% certain Israeli obstructionism will prevent it from coming fast.

But even if they can be physically saved, the culture and fabric of society are damaged beyond repair. The psychological damage is immense. The institutions of normality that might permit recovery are non-existent.

Nobody really knows the true number killed so far in the genocide. The Palestinian health authorities, run by the elected Hamas representatives, have been scrupulous in giving out numbers only of those officially certified dead following the recovery and identification of their bodies.

Given the almost total destruction of Gaza’s buildings and the unavailability of rescue equipment and the lack of ceasefire for body recovery, I suspect the 46,707 official death toll as of last night (and the Israelis already killed over 80 again today) may prove to be way short of the truth, which could be double or more from unaccounted bodies.

That is without the Lancet study suggesting that 50% again may have died subsequently from wounds. A similar number to the dead are permanently maimed.

The worst effects may not in the long term even be in Palestine at all. The Western world has, in the support of its rulers for Israel as it commits Genocide, abandoned any pretence to wish to maintain the system of international law that had been extended and developed post World War 2. Untold horrors of war may be unleashed as a result in the next decade.

In both the USA and the UK, governments ignored their own senior officials and legal advisers to break the human rights constraints which those nations had imposed upon their foreign policy, particularly with regard to the supply of weapons.

In Poland, France and several other NATO countries, the governments have openly repudiated their duty to enforce warrants of the International Criminal Court.

In the UK, Germany, USA, France and throughout the Western world, there has been a massive rolling back of long-cherished and hard-won rights of freedom of expression and assembly, explicitly to prevent criticism of Israel and support for Palestine.

There has been concerted social media suppression to the same end on all major online platforms, and a seizure of Tik Tok in the USA avowedly because of its failure to repress speech critical of Israel.

The unanimity of mainstream media support for Israel, and the tiny or no space for any dissenting view, has become so established a part of the political landscape it can go unnoticed. But it needs to be highlighted.

In his closing address, the one useful thing Biden said was the correct observation about the USA becoming an oligarchy. The whole world is becoming intensely oligarchic, with an astronomical expansion of the wealth gap between rulers and ruled these past twenty years.

The impunity of Israel, and the decline of international law, is a direct consequence of this. There is a particular truth that encompasses almost every Western country and, interestingly, unites both the Arab and the Western worlds.

That truth is this. The wealthy oligarchic elites who control media and politics are extremely pro-Israel. The people are not.

The gap between the support for Israel among the super wealthy and powerful, and the view of the majority of normal people, really deserves serious study to explain it. Not the least interesting is the fact that not even the almost 100% mainstream media pro-Israeli propaganda has been enough to convince the peoples of the world to support the Genocide, outwith the special cases of Germany and the US religious Zionists.

So, what happens now? Well, I was in Beirut when it was carpet bombed in the hours immediately before the ceasefire here took effect, and I expect Israel to massively bomb Gaza’s tent cities in the next three days.

I have also seen Israel break the ceasefire in Lebanon every single day, and I expect them to do that in Gaza too.

Israel daily breaches the ‘ceasefire’ in Lebanon both inside and outside the demilitarised zone. Three days ago they killed 5 civilians. pic.twitter.com/MiAQpZ4AZI

— Craig Murray (@CraigMurrayOrg) January 15, 2025

So long as the USA and Israel designate Hamas as a terrorist organisation, they will claim the right to bomb and kill at any time as a “counter-terrorism operation”, irrespective of any ceasefire agreement. That is their formal position, just as it is their formal position with regard to Hezbollah and the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon.

The Israelis did not start killing Palestinians on 8 October 2023 and they will not stop killing them now.

I expect the ceasefire agreement to go ahead as projected, with occasional Israeli “anti-terrorist” attacks continuing in Gaza. The prisoner exchanges will happen. The Israelis will continually delay and renege on the provisions on aid access and on withdrawal of troops. Palestinians in Gaza will die in large numbers of disease, hunger and poor sanitation.

Just as the ceasefire in Lebanon led to Israel immediately invading Southern Syria, Israel will now increase its activity in the West Bank, suppressing resistance together with its proxy “Palestinian Authority” forces and continually seizing land from Palestinians.

I do not doubt that it is true that the Gaza ceasefire is due to Trump telling Netanyahu to stop. As I continually said, Biden’s attempts to restrain Netanyahu were a complete subterfuge and Biden was absolutely committed to the Genocide.

Trump is very difficult to read. When he was elected in 2016, I believed he was less hawkish in foreign policy than Hillary Clinton. Had Clinton been elected, for example, I am sure that she would have immediately laid waste to Syria, which would have been destroyed like Libya – eventually achieved by Biden.

Trump II had seemed an altogether more aggressive persona than Trump I, particularly as regards the Middle East. Yet Trump II has told Netanyahu to stop the Genocide – confirming incidentally that Biden could have done so had he wished.

Biden wanted Genocide.

The myth of Western support for international law and human rights died in Gaza, along with the myth of Western support for the “two-state solution”. There never was a viable two-state solution and it was those states who were loudest in pretending to support it, who vehemently refused to recognise the Palestinian state.

The “two-state solution” was only ever a cover for Zionism. With Gaza now utterly smashed and its population ruined, and the West Bank almost totally expropriated, the pretence of a “two-state solution” has to be finally killed off.

Israel has lost any moral authority for its continued existence. It has proven itself to be a genocidal entity driven by ethno-supremacism. (A people who believe themselves to be a superior or divinely favoured race are ethno-supremacists, regardless of whether their claim of ethnic homogeneity is founded or not.)

Within 48 hours of the Hamas breakout on 7 October I wrote my first piece about it. Often in retrospect reactions to a major incident are too influenced by the emotion of the moment, but actually I am as proud of this as of anything I ever wrote.

Asymmetric warfare tends to be vile. Oppressed and colonised peoples don’t have the luxury of lining up soldiers in neatly pressed uniforms and polished boots, to face off against the opposing army in an equality of arms.

A colonised and oppressed people tends, given the chance, to mirror the atrocities perpetrated on them by their oppressor.

This of course feeds in, always, to the propaganda of the Imperialist. A paroxysm of resistance by the oppressed always ends up portrayed by the Imperialist as evidence of the bestiality of the colonised people and in itself justifying the “civilising mission” of the coloniser.

Which is not to say I relish violence, quite the opposite. I am in fact pleased that Israeli prisoners as well as Palestinian prisoners will be returned as part of a ceasefire deal.

While the Palestinian resistance are fully entitled to take as many IDF members and reserves prisoner as they can, I cannot approve of the illegal practice of taking children and other complete non-combatants prisoner – and yes I know the Israelis do it on a much larger scale.

Behaving better than the Israelis should be a permanent guide in life.

Unfortunately, it is not the case that colonial settler, racist states cannot triumph. The white settlers in the USA, Canada and Australia did manage to permanently subjugate and almost extinguish the local populations. I have spoken to some wonderful Arab intellectuals these last few weeks who all tend to take the view that Israel’s ultimate defeat is inevitable because the colonial settler state will never be accepted by the Arab populations. I wish I were so confident.

Where I agree with them totally is that the abolition of the terrorist state of Israel must be the goal, not an accommodation with it.

Israel’s pariah status is now assured for a generation, it is deeply split internally and it is dependent on a parent state, the USA, which is losing its relative power and hegemony. Yet for now Israel is expanding. It occupies significantly more territory than it did two years ago and in Syria and Lebanon it has seized control of vital regional water sources. Israel currently has full military control of over 30% of Syria’s fresh water.

Trump probably supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza and more. But that does not of necessity mean he supports either the expulsion of their populations or an apartheid state. He may see such heavy state interventions as an interference in the freedom of business to make money, and even undesirable per se.

It is impossible to be certain about what Trump sees as the end goal. From this first indication, it is fair to say his influence is, to this point, more benign than feared.

It is all a house of cards. As of today, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon all have leadership which is, broadly speaking, pro-USA and pro-Israel. Will that still be the case in a decade? Because it is the fact on which Israel depends for its existence.

The other point on which Israel relies is the support of Western governments. But throughout the Western world, the electoral and party systems which maintain the neo-liberal consensus and give voters no real choice at elections across issues ranging from economic policy to support for Israel, are fracturing.

This requires an article in itself, but in the UK, France, Germany and countless other states there is a tectonic shift happening with voters demanding a shift away from the tiny window of orthodox policy.

To date, the populist right has been quickest to take advantage of this shift, and of course benefited from mainstream media cooperation. But the fluidity indicates an impending seismic shift in western domestic political alignment.

That coincides with the disillusionment of Eastern Europe with the EU and NATO and the consequent desperate attempts of the NATO powers to subvert democracy in Georgia, Romania and Moldova.

At some stage China will take a more active interest in the Middle East. Once the Ukraine war has concluded, Russia will undoubtedly turn more attention to the Mediterranean again.

The situation is dynamic. I would not know whether to be more surprised if Trump initiated US attacks on Iran or initiated rebooted nuclear talks and the lifting of sanctions. I suspect the latter surprise to be the more likely.

Today there is at least a moment of hope that the horrible deaths and mutilations in Gaza may be slowed. Let us take that for a moment of respite, and feel the sun upon our faces. Then we continue the fight against evil.

———————–

To be blunt, our two months in Lebanon before Christmas made a slight financial loss. I was delighted with the output of four mini-documentaries and numerous short video reports and articles, some of which individually had millions of viewers. But to date the model of reader-sponsored real overseas journalism is not proven nor stable.

If you have not yet contributed financially, I should be grateful if you could do so. If you have contributed, perhaps you could help further by encouraging others to do so. I would as always stress I do not want anybody to contribute if it causes them the slightest financial hardship.

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

Yesterday I did two short video reports from outside the Lebanese Parliament – inside a military cordon that totally sealed off downtown Beirut – on the appointment of General Joseph Aoun, Head of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as President of Lebanon.

There is no other Western source giving any of this detail – not even that it is directly unconstitutional for a present or former Head of the Armed Forces to become President in Lebanon.

This report by William Christou is fascinating because it is a dark image mirror of my report. The facts are the same, but presented in a neoliberal rose-coloured light.

I report that Lebanese politicians were directly threatened by France and Germany that unless General Aoun was appointed, then Israeli troops will not leave Southern Lebanon as stipulated in the ceasefire deal.

The Guardian tells this as “Army commander’s election increases confidence that ceasefire deal will hold”.

I retell the massive pressure put on Lebanon by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia to appoint the General in addition to the Israeli military threat. Special Envoys arrived from Joe Biden (the US envoy being Tel Aviv-born IDF member Amos Hochstein), President Macron and Mohammed bin Salman. The French and Saudis were actually in the room at parliament.

The Guardian sees this as “helpful” international diplomacy.

The Hezbollah-Israel war, as well as external pressure, had seemingly helped finally overcome that gridlock on Thursday. In the days before the election, a series of diplomats visited Beirut to hold talks with the main political figures.

For 13 months and 14 failed elections, Hezbollah and their allies had blocked the appointment of General Aoun. That he is the United States and Israel’s man is not in doubt. Despite Hezbollah attempting to make the most of their having voted for Aoun in the final round, to rescue what credit they could from the inevitable, this is no doubt another defeat for them following the disastrous ceasefire agreement that led to the same-day start of the assault on their ally Assad.

There is one stark and undeniable truth. The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia have gained massively in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Iran’s position has been very seriously weakened. Panglossian attempts to downplay this by anti-Imperialists, with whom I sympathise, are unhelpful.

Both Syria and Lebanon have in the last month gained new leaders whose chief qualification for office is that they both commanded military forces which did not fire a single shot against Israeli invasion and occupation of their countries.

The Greater Israel project is well underway, with Saudi and Turkish agreement in exchange for the suppression of Shia Islam in the remaining Arab territories. Aoun’s appointed role is as a hammer against Hezbollah.

Finally, and just for fun, if you want to know what the new leadership style feels like:

To be blunt, our two months in Lebanon before Christmas made a slight financial loss. I was delighted with the output of four mini-documentaries and numerous short video reports and articles, some of which individually had millions of viewers. But to date the model of reader-sponsored real overseas journalism is not proven nor stable.

If you have not yet contributed financially, I should be grateful if you could do so. If you have contributed, perhaps you could help further by encouraging others to do so. I would as always stress I do not want anybody to contribute if it causes them the slightest financial hardship.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
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Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

There was absolutely nothing stopping them, but not one single member of Western mainstream media ever visited a bomb site in Lebanon to verify whether Israeli claims it was a Hezbollah base or missile site were true. Because they knew the answer is negative, as I found across dozens of bomb sites, and that is not the narrative they are paid to promote.

But when a narrative they are paid to promote came to the fore, they flocked to Damascus – driving right past the bombed civilian homes, ambulance centres and schools of Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley to get there – to promote Syria’s new Israel-, USA- and Turkey-sponsored “democratic” government of entirely “reformed” HTS Wahhabists.

Now in the past I had unfortunate arguments with some who broadly take a similar view of politics to me – Vanessa Beeley comes to mind – because I was never a fan of the Assad regime and its human rights record. Nevertheless, I consistently preferred Assad to the NATO-, Gulf- and Israel-sponsored extremist Wahhabi “rebels” who were fighting him.

But you can acknowledge Assad’s human rights abuses without subscribing to the ludicrous atrocity propaganda that spewed out of the mainstream media – 150,000 prisoners in one jail, 100,000 people in a mass grave, the “body press” whose plywood-pressing surfaces were peculiarly unstained, the suntanned American prisoner who had been “locked in a room for seven months”, the splendidly groomed dissident prisoner “rescued” by CNN.

Atrocity propaganda is as old as warfare. Like the “60 beheaded babies” of 7 October, or the 100,000 prisoners in a mass grave, it will doubtless recur indefinitely despite being nonsense. The installation of HTS by the NATO powers and Israel was a propaganda orgy of “joy” and “liberation”.

Undoubtedly some people did feel joy and liberation. But the Western media have not stayed around since, to report the subsequent numerous incidents of beatings and summary executions of non-Sunnis, that the “democratic revolution” will start to think about an election only in four years’ time, that women judges have all been dismissed, that starting yesterday there are official Sharia patrols on the streets of Damascus “advising” women to cover their hair, and that for the first time, also starting yesterday, the hijab is official compulsory uniform in most Syrian state schools.

Still less have they reported that HTS has done nothing whatsoever to oppose the Israeli invasion of Southern Syria, which as of today controls the dams that supply 40% of Syria’s potable and agricultural water. Israel is constructing 13 permanent military bases in the newly occupied Syrian territories, putting in concrete emplacements and building or improving fenced roads between them. It is building gun emplacements around dams.

HTS has – while not opposing the Israeli invaders – however managed to make several incursions into Lebanon including direct attacks on the Lebanese Army. In some cases these attacks by HTS on Lebanon have occurred within five miles of illegal Israeli outposts of soldiers within Syria – a clear indication of which side HTS is on.

The new HTS government has of course been fêted by the global neoliberals. The agenda of the Western security services has nowhere been more obvious than in the linkage of the HTS and Ukrainian causes, and the second foreign delegation received by the new HTS government was indeed from Ukraine.

Uzbek militants formed a significant section of HTS’s Wahhabi army, and it is not a coincidence that around the same time, it was an Uzbek militant who murdered a key Russian general on behalf of the Ukrainian government.

The Ukrainian delegation to the HTS government was closely followed of course by the ubiquitous harpy Annelina Baerbock, the most outspoken and enthusiastic advocate outside the state of Israel of the massacre of Palestinians.

As some kind of counterweight to the Western support of Al Qaeda/Al Nusra/HTS in Syria, which the public was entitled to find somewhat confusing, we have the narrative of the “ISIS-inspired” terrorism attack in New Orleans, just to reassure that Muslims are still the official enemy.

There are a number of things about this narrative which are just too pat to sit easily with me. The killer, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, helpfully aided identification by being equipped with an ISIS flag, which despite being an important item in a multiple murder investigation was somehow unguarded and available to the media to photograph, plainly clearly laid out in line with the flagstone pattern and not lying as it fell. Why is the crime scene tape strewn around like this?

A further interesting question is why the flag is upside down on the makeshift staff. If somebody cared enough about the cause to kill and die for it, presumably they would know which way up the flag goes? It is worth noting that the official story is that Jabbar was “inspired by ISIS”, not that he actually had any form of contact with anyone from ISIS. Maybe nobody told him which way the flag goes. But it also transpires he had Arabic language books, including the Koran, at home, so he plainly would have known the writing was upside down.

Entirely weird is this report from the New York Post, where their reporter is able apparently to walk around the completely unsecured apartment of Jabbar and poke about evidence at will. Again it is all delightfully perfect – the Koran is open at a page about fighting and being killed, and the camera lingers on a helpfully hung Palestinian keffiyeh, while there are lots of chemicals and apparent bomb-making areas.

I am not positing a theory as to what happened. I am saying that the package of information being presented is remarkably full and neat.

It took the British police five solid days of investigation at Charlie Rowley’s and Dawn Sturgess’s house before they discovered the perfume bottle of “novichok” in plain sight on the kitchen counter. In 24 hours, by contrast, the FBI had so comprehensively taken all required evidence from Jabbar’s apartment, and presumably had carried out all forensic investigation needed for traces of possible accomplices there, that they were able to let a journalist and crew contaminate the scene as much as they wish.

Is this not all a bit strange?

I am sure that by now you are aware of all the coincidences in career and in car hire between Jabbar and Matthew Livelsberger, who made a kind of explosion at a Trump hotel in Las Vegas the same day. I am not sure this actually proves a connection between the two, beyond that fact that being in the US military is more likely than anything else to turn you into a potential psychotic killer.

But there are very weird things in the Livelsberger case. What strikes me most is that Livelsberger was not a toy soldier: he was an active service member of special forces with substantial combat experience. He would certainly have been able to make a more viable bomb, as his family suggested.

Perhaps more to the point, Livelsberger would certainly have known that what was in the truck was not a viable bomb.

It is also worth noting that this US special forces soldier is officially noted as having served in Ukraine – not an everyday admission.

There is no previous example of a suicide bomber who deliberately killed himself before his attack came to fruition. What we have here, if we believe the official narrative, is a highly proficient active combat veteran who shot himself before his non-viable IED went off.

This too strikes me as a most peculiar narrative. To which I will add that, in the great tradition of terrorist attacks, while Livelsberger’s body was burnt beyond recognition, his passport survived in the cab, next to him.

So we have the Western powers active in installing terrorists in power in Damascus, and some almost immediate examples of terrorist blowback in the USA from members of the US military, and with some very strange details.

None of which is, however, really stranger than the Western rush to sanctify the HTS government in Damascus, when HTS remains a proscribed terrorist organisation pretty well everywhere, but certainly in the UK and USA. The “terrorism” incidents in the USA – particularly the “Islamic terrorism” incident in New Orleans – make it still harder to process the normalisation of terrorist organisation HTS.

I am returning to Beirut in a few hours after being back in Scotland for Christmas and New Year. To be perfectly frank with you, I was expecting to get arrested on arrival here under the Terrorism Act, as has happened to me before and has happened recently to so many decent journalists with a pro-Palestinian stance.

Just telling the truth about the genocide of the Palestinians, and the creation of Greater Israel, has until now been treated by the UK’s counter-terrorism police as expressing an opinion that may cause others to support proscribed organisations Hamas and Hezbollah, and therefore grounds for arrest and seizure of property.

But HTS is also a proscribed organisation, and the entire British Establishment has very openly been “expressing an opinion which could cause others to support it”. The former head of MI6, Sir John Sawers, has been on television advocating that HTS should no longer be proscribed because it is such a decent organisation. Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell have been openly praising it on their blog.

There are three ultra-draconian aspects of Section 12 of the Terrorism Act:

1) You can get 14 years in jail for merely “expressing an opinion”.
2) Intent is expressly not required. If your opinion could cause somebody else to support a proscribed organisation, whether you intended that or not, you are guilty if “reckless”, i.e. you did not positively avoid expressing any such opinion
3) It is entirely up to the government to determine what is a proscribed organisation. If you disagree that an organisation should be proscribed, to argue that case is almost certainly an offence. If the government decided to proscribe the Girl Guides, the Girl Guides would – in law – be a terrorist organisation.

You may notice the parallels in law to the Rwanda case, where the courts ruled that Rwanda did not become a safe country for asylum seekers merely because a government minister said it was. There has however been no successful legal challenge to the effect that a resistance movement does not become a terrorist organisation merely because a government says it is.

But here is the rub. In the UK, it still remains at least the legal fiction that governments have to obey their own laws. The entire purpose of chopping off the head of Charles I was to show that the executive cannot arbitrarily break the law of the land, and that seemed to make the point pretty clearly.

Until the government, through an Order in Council, actually removes the proscription of HTS as a terrorist organisation, it is still illegal to support it in the UK – and it is illegal for government ministers to support it, let alone ex-functionaries like John Sawers, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart.

Now in practice, there is nothing to prevent the massive hypocrisy of the Terrorism Police harassing, and the CPS prosecuting, people for very tangential “support” of Hamas and Hezbollah, while much more blatant and open support of HTS goes unpunished.

But it is not a good look and juries are likely to be unhappy.

I therefore suspect the decision not to go for me again under the Terrorism Act may be because the widespread official support for proscribed organisation HTS has brought the law into disrepute. That might also explain why recently the police have been using the Public Order Act against speakers at the regular demonstrations at the Israeli Ambassador’s residence in London, whereas previously they have used the Terrorism Act in identical circumstances.

No less than THREE Jewish antizionist descendants of Holocaust survivors have been ARRESTED by @metpoliceuk at Swiss Cottage @IJAN_Network picket to demand expulsion of Hotovely.
Why are the Met Police ARRESTING Jewish people for condemning genocide, and PROTECTING war criminals? https://t.co/ZwaIoMmqvp pic.twitter.com/DUN6fidKOu

— Bintifada (@YaBintifada) January 7, 2025

The range of anti-free speech legislation available to the authorities in the UK is now extensive and bewildering. We are still seeing the legacy cases against Richard Barnard and Tony Greenstein under the Terrorism Act progressing. But Section 12 may prove to be an example of draconian legislation which dies of shame.

There will be many twists and turns yet to come, as the negative impact of the Western states actively participating in the Gaza genocide plays out in Western societies. All of this is against the background of crumbling political systems and fast-unravelling social cohesion and consent of the governed, due to massive increases in inequality of wealth and blocking of social mobility – at least upwards.

In returning to Beirut to give independent witness to events in the Middle East, I hope also to be able to access Syria – although that of course brings new levels of danger from its authorities and militias. This independent investigative journalism is only available with your financial support.

To be blunt, our two months in Lebanon before Christmas made a slight financial loss. I was delighted with the output of four mini-documentaries and numerous short video reports and articles, some of which individually had millions of viewers. But to date the model of reader-sponsored real overseas journalism is not proven nor stable.

If you have not yet contributed financially, I should be grateful if you could do so. If you have contributed, perhaps you could help further by encouraging others to do so. I would as always stress I do not want anybody to contribute if it causes them the slightest financial hardship.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
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Israel has relentlessly bombed all 38 branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association in Lebanon. Why is it so important to the Zionist cause to specifically obliterate a savings and loan institution? I investigate in our fourth mini-documentary from Lebanon.

Click on the “Closed Captions” option at the bottom of the video and you will get the subtitles including translation from Arabic.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

What’s happening in Lebanon: interview with former British Ambassador Craig Murray
11 December 2024 – 19:00

The current situation in Lebanon is more delicate than ever. Despite the entry into force of
the fragile cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel, the Jewish state continues to violate the
terms of the agreement, claiming that it is only conducting defensive operations. At the same
time, in Syria, the opposition front to Assad has conquered Damascus, bringing down a
dynasty that lasted over half a century without its ally Hezbollah being able to do anything.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Craig Murray travelled to Beirut to report on what is
happening from the ground.

Craig Murray is a former British diplomat, writer and human rights activist. He served as
UK ambassador to Uzbekistan from 2002 to 2004, exposing human rights abuses in that
country, and dedicated his post-diplomatic career to global justice issues. At the top of the
list was the Palestinian cause, for which – in the current climate of repression in the UK –
he was detained by the police, as has happened to other journalists.

I know you are currently in Lebanon: where exactly are you and what is the current situation in the
country?

Right now I am in the capital, Beirut. The city is relatively quiet, but there are Israeli drones flying
overhead all the time. They have not bombed Beirut since the agreement came into force, but there have
been many violations by Israel in the south of the country. I have been there three or four times since the
agreement was signed, and the situation is still very tense. A few days ago, Israel killed about six people,
including a shepherd, while other shepherds have disappeared. As these small-scale violations continue,
so does the bombing. The problem I think lies in the fact that the ceasefire agreement is extremely one-
sided. It stipulates that all Lebanese groups must cease all operations against Israel, while Israel must
cease only offensive operations against Lebanon: the qualification ‘offensive operation’ applies to only
one party to the agreement.

In southern Lebanon, the Israeli army is advancing and conquering more territory?

Yes. And, again, this is a problem with the agreement. The ceasefire establishes a demilitarised zone
extending from the Litani river southwards: both sides have to leave the area completely. During the
conflict, Israel had not managed to take any territory in the demilitarised zone. It only got as far as the
Litani river once, helicoptering troops there to take a few photo-ops and bringing them quickly back. In
short, Israel is exploiting the ceasefire agreement to claim the right to operate as far as the Litani river,
despite never having arrived there during the fighting. In addition, Israel is claiming that all its current
violations are only defensive in nature. Even when they shoot shepherds and kill people at funerals. The
fact is that Hezbollah is designated by the US and Israel as a terrorist organisation; for them, the Israeli
attacks therefore do not count as violations of the agreement because they are considered anti-terrorist
operations.

At present, what role does the United States play in this picture?

The United States is in charge of the ‘mechanism’ – as it is called – for monitoring compliance with the
agreement. The document introduces a distinction I have never seen in any agreement – something
extraordinary, indeed. It says that the UN will ‘host’ the monitoring committee, although that the US will
‘chair’ it. However, ‘hosting’ has no meaning in diplomatic or practical terms. What that comes down to is
this: the UN will be allowed to provide tea and biscuits, while the US will actually run the show, although
– and this is indeed extraordinary – they are one of the parties in the conflict, not an arbiter! The bombs
that fall in Lebanon are supplied and paid for by the US.

What about the rest of the Western powers? What interests of theirs are at stake?

UNIFIL, which is the only Western force on the ground, is to have a role in monitoring the ceasefire
agreement. France, the former colonial power, will also work with the US in monitoring the cease-fire.
Paris is very anxious to maintain its role here in Lebanon, and its status as the former colonial power is
very important to Macron. So much so that, in exchange for being included in the committee, Paris agreed
to reverse its position on the ICC and Netanyahu and announced that the Israeli prime minister could visit
the country without fear of being handed over to the ICC.

Given the composition of the monitoring committee and the continuous violations that we mentioned
earlier, what do you think is Israel’s ultimate goal?

I have no doubt that Israel’s ultimate goal is the annexation of southern Lebanon, which is part of the
expansion plan for Greater Israel. The Jewish state has a long history of Zionist propagandists claiming
the Litani river as its northern border, which would mean moving the country’s current border some 25
miles further north. And there are Zionists who believe it should go even further north. An interesting
story to better understand this point concerns one of the Israeli soldiers killed during the invasion. He was
a man wearing a full military uniform and carrying a weapon, but who turned out to be a 72-year-old
archaeologist: the Israeli army takes archaeologists along to look for signs of ancient Jewish settlements
and thus come up with an excuse for annexation. Moreover, it would seem that these objectives have been
coordinated with the rebel forces in Syria, supported by Israel and the US. It is no coincidence that the
rebel attack started on the day the ceasefire in Lebanon came into effect.

Speaking of Syria, how is the front line in Lebanon changing now that Damascus has fallen?

Hezbollah now finds itself caught in the middle. These Syrian rebels are the same people who were in al-
Qaeda and ISIS, and ISIS previously occupied the mountains above the Beqaa valley. They were defeated
by Hezbollah in the past, but they still want to regain the Beqaa Valley and northern Lebanon. Thus, what
Hezbollah is likely to face in the near future, is a simultaneous attack from the north and south, Israel
attacking Hezbollah’s southern flank. And Hezbolloah is not that big in size, so I don’t know if it would
be able to deal with such a double threat. Moreover, it is by no means certain that the Lebanese army
would fight against the Syrian rebels if they entered the Beqaa valley, because the Americans also support
the Syrian rebels – the Americans pay about 50 per cent of each soldier’s salary.

What about Palestine?

Obviously the situation for the Palestinians is already disastrous, but what is happening in Syria makes it
even worse, because it removes the corridor connecting Iran to Lebanon and Hezbollah and eliminates the
possibility of opening a northern front against Israel. Now the Israelis will no longer have to fear an attack
by Hezbollah when they decide to proceed with their ethnic cleansing and annexation of the West Bank –
because, you see, I believe that the ethnic cleansing and annexation of Gaza have effectively already been
accomplished. The Israelis still have some extermination to do, they will kill many more people, but their
plans for annexation are now quite public. The West Bank, on the other hand, is still under the control of a
subservient Palestinian authority. The Israelis have yet to complete this process, because what remains of
the Palestinian population is still hanging on: but the plan is extermination, ethnic cleansing, or expulsion
The regime change in Syria saves Israel from the risk of a northern front while they are at it.

In a recent article, you raised the prospect of a final solution in the Middle East, which would consist
of the creation of two blocs: Greater Israel and, to all effects, a Sunni caliphate. Wouldn’t this go
against what has been US policy so far, namely to preserve and play on the Sunni-Shia conflict?
Eliminating the Shias would eliminate the conflict, and there would no longer be any leverage to
counter a future Sunni rebel government in Syria or parts of Lebanon.

I agree. In the Sunni-Shia divide, the balance would end up tilting decisively in favour of the Sunnis,
potentially eliminating the Shia minorities in Lebanon and Syria. I now believe that the US is prioritising
the elimination of that threat to Israel, at the expense of maintaining the divisions, thus taking a short-term
view. I think this is an example of the fact that, when it comes to formulating its Middle East policy, the
US cares more about Israel than they do about themselves. For example, when they eliminated Saddam,
they probably did not fully realise that the consequence would be a Shia-majority regime in Iraq, and
therefore an Iraq close to Iran. For now the US thinks the balance is too much in favour of Iran and
Russia and that, to a certain extent, it should be rebalanced by helping the Israelis. However, this is
terribly short-sighted; indeed, I believe it is a disastrous miscalculation: true, these groups are subordinate
to the US but only for the time being; as happened with Al-Qaeda, as well as with the Taliban, and with
all these organisations that the US supports in the short term, there will be a backlash. Before long, once
they have consolidated their power, these groups will attack the US.

A final question, perhaps the most trivial and at the same time due to be asked in this turbulent context.
What is the future of the Middle East? Can there be a peaceful future for the region?

Right now, the future of the Middle East looks very bleak. Syria looks like it will regress into a failed
state, as happened with Libya. Should the Turks increase their repression of the Kurds and deprive them
of their territories, it will be the US and Turkey who will run the oil fields there, exactly as happened in
Iraq. The rest of Syria will see a continued attempt by the Salafists to impose very strict legislation, which
will increase in intensity in this culturally diverse country. All I see with the fall of the Assad dictatorship
is the lack of control from the centre, and this could lead to massacres and repression. For the
Palestinians, of course, the situation at the moment is just as bleak.

However, I do not think that Israel can survive for long. I think Israel has now proven itself to be
essentially a fascist, racial supremacist, and genocidal entity. People around the world are forming an ever
stronger idea of what is Israel is: a pariah state, an illegitimate entity. Eventually, through moral suasion,
Israel will disappear because people will want to have nothing to do with it, and a large part of the world
will promote an enormous economic boycott.

What are the possible repercussions in the Western world?

Senior politicians in Western countries, if they do not change, will share a similar fate, because people
will, at last, find a way to get rid of them. Indeed, it is interesting to note that the situation in the Middle
East has made the people around the world realise that politicians do not serve the interests of their
electorates and do not respond to their needs. One way or another, the Middle East scenario will help
trigger a revolutionary change in the West. The consequences of what the Israeli genocide will have
brought about, should be fascinating for future historians. Its effects will be seen in the decades to come.
The probable end result will be the abolition of the State of Israel, leading to a radical political change in
our so-called ‘democratic systems’ here in the West.

[by Dario Lucisano translation Patrick Boylan].

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

After six weeks in Beirut, duing which I witnessed a substantial swing in the balance of power in the Middle East in favour of the Greater Israel project, it is time to take stock.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

You have probably noticed my frenetic and uncharacteristic appeals for donations across social media. This has been an experiment as to whether genuinely independent reporting from a colonialist war zone is possible, and the answer may be “No”. I want to explain the costs to you.

Leaving aside for a paragraph or two the costs of cinematographer Niels Ladefoged and myself getting here and living here, let me tell you about the cost just of the 5-minute piece I did from the Syrian/Lebanese border.

After obtaining our general permits to report from the Ministry of Information, the Ministry of Defence and other sources, we cannot just go and film anywhere. Almost everywhere we might want to film (including everywhere we have filmed so far) requires specific individual permission and clearance from both the same and other authorities, at both the national and local level.

It is just not practical to get these permissions ourselves. They require a network of contacts we just do not have, the ability to get heard in a very bureaucratic system, and at a basic level, language skills. If we tried to do it ourselves it would take weeks to do one day’s shooting.

A highly evolved system of “fixers” has grown up in Lebanon, of people who set these things up for visiting news teams. They are a world in themselves with a definite hierarchy. They also generally work for organisations like the New York Times or the BBC who are not really counting the pennies. Foreigners like us cannot avoid it. Perhaps if we were here for a couple of years we could bypass this system, but we learnt quickly and painfully that we cannot at present.

Other essentials that you need for a shoot like that one at the border – vehicle, driver, and interpreter – come as part of a package from the fixers. It is not really possible to separate this package out, as the driver is an essential cog in the functioning of the system of permissions – he knows who has the list that you are on locally.

So to get out to the border and do that shoot cost us about $700 plus consumables – petrol, food etc. I do think it was worth it:

We have produced a stream of such short reports, plus written articles, as well as a constant social media output on X/Twitter. We have been receiving millions of views even for some individual videos.

We are also producing mini-documentaries. We have done three so far. These not only involve more than one day shooting – each about $700 – but also proper editing and post-production, with sound, colour grading etc. For that we are using a local post-production studio. The upside is of course that all these costs represent employment for local people.

A beautifully made, thoughtful and very moving film from Craig Murray and his team. The BBC ought to have made this and I wish they had. https://t.co/zeo0wNuzbJ

— Peter Oborne (@OborneTweets) December 7, 2024

I haven’t got the bill for that one yet, but post-production on our first mini-documentary on refugees is in the region of $7,000. If the BBC had made the above item, their overall costs would have been ten times this or more.

In addition to which we have the costs of just being here, with all our equipment. We stayed in a hotel, then in two Airbnbs. This is a rough breakdown of everything so far:

Airfares $2,860 (we have expensive open returns in case of having to get out quickly!)
Hotel $2,320
Airbnb 1 $2,140
Airbnb 2 $1,280 (paid till 18 Dec)

Subsistence 43 days x $50 each $4,300
Locally purchased equipment $280
Casual Transport $420
Casual interpretation $160

“Fixer” services $4,800
including transport, interpretation and permits

Post-production costs (estimate) $15,000

Actual spend so far: USD 33,560
That is about £26,400

This is without adding any actual income for Niels. And assuming the blog subscriptions give me just my normal income for doing this work (but see below).

Against this we have received so far approximately £21,500. I had diversified the fundraising streams specifically for this trip, though partly in response to long term demands from readers for more options.

We have received £14,849 from the GoFundMe we set up (which finally GoFundMe have agreed to release to us), and about £6,700 in total from other donation options in this period. There are also new subscriptions to my work which will bring in about £4,000 a year so long as they are maintained, but obviously this is longer-term income.

So at the moment we are about £5,000 out of pocket. I had hoped that this would improve but, contrary to expectations, the more work we have produced, the less donations have been coming in.

Many people producing “independent journalism” from war zones are in fact receiving some benefit from a party – it may be accommodation or transport or logistics. We are genuinely independent. Nor do we have any backing from any apparently benign foundation or fund.

Perhaps this is a foolish, Quixotic quest and it is not possible to do alternative media with my approach from a war zone. In which case we will have to give up and come home. That would be a pity. The genocide in Gaza is not stopping and even this moment Israeli drones circle above us here – the USA and Israel are plunging this region further into chaos.

I am not asking those who have so kindly supported to give more. I very, very definitely do not want anybody to support if it causes them the slightest financial hardship, and I know things are difficult. But if you have not done so, and you can help, or if you can bring this to the attention of others who might help, I should be grateful.

Thank you.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

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A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world.

This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations, the smashing of all alcohol and the forced imposition of the veil on women in Aleppo now.

Yesterday US Warthog air-to-ground jets attacked and severely depleted reinforcements which were, at the invitation of the Syrian government, en route to Syria from Iraq. Constant, daily Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military infrastructure for months have been a major factor in the demoralisation and reduced capacity of the Syrian government’s Syrian Arab Army, which has simply evaporated in Aleppo and Hama.

It is very difficult to see the tide turning in Syria. The Russians now have either to massively reinforce their Syrian bases with ground troops or to evacuate them. Faced with the exigencies of Ukraine, they may do the latter, and it is reported that the Russian navy has already set sail from Tartus.

The speed of collapse of Syria has taken everybody by surprise. If the situation does not stabilise, Damascus could be besieged and ISIS back on the hills above the Bekaa valley within a week, given the speed of their advance and the short distances involved.

A renewed Israeli attack on Southern Lebanon to coincide with a Salafist invasion of the Bekaa Valley would then seem inevitable, as the Israelis would obviously wish their border with their new Taliban-style Greater Syrian neighbour to be as far North as possible. It could be a race for Beirut, unless the Americans have already organised who gets it.

It is no coincidence that the attack on Syria started the day of the Lebanon/Israel ceasefire. The jihadist forces do not want to be seen to be fighting alongside Israel, even though they are fighting forces which have been relentlessly bombed by Israel, and in the case of Hezbollah are exhausted from fighting Israel.

The Times of Israel has no compunction about saying the quiet part out loud, unlike the British media:

In fact Israeli media is giving a lot more truth about the Syrian rebel forces than British and American media just now. This is another article from the Times of Israel:

While HTS officially seceded from Al Qaeda in 2016, it remains a Salafi jihadi organization designated as a terror organization in the US, the EU and other countries, with tens of thousands of fighters.

Its sudden surge raises concerns that a potential takeover of Syria could transform it into an Islamist, Taliban-like regime – with repercussions for Israel at its south-western border. Others, however, see the offensive as a positive development for Israel and a further blow to the Iranian axis in the region.

Contrast this to the UK media, which from the Telegraph and Express to the Guardian has promoted the official narrative that not just the same organisations, but the same people responsible for mass torture and executions of non-Sunnis, including Western journalists, are now cuddly liberals.

Nowhere is this more obvious than the case of Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, sometimes spelt Al-Julani or Al-Golani, who is now being boosted throughout western media as a moderate leader. He was the deputy leader of ISIS, and the CIA actually has a $10 million bounty on his head! Yes, that is the same CIA which is funding and equipping him and giving him air support.

Supporters of the Syrian rebels still attempt to deny that they have Israeli and US support – despite the fact that almost a decade ago there was open Congressional testimony in the USA that, to that point, over half a billion dollars had been spent on assistance to Syrian rebel forces, and the Israelis have openly been providing medical and other services to the jihadists and effective air support.

One interesting consequence of this joint NATO/Israel support for the jihadist groups in Syria is a further perversion of domestic rule of law. To take the UK as an example, under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act it is illegal to state an opinion that supports, or may lead somebody else to support, a proscribed organisation.

The abuse of this provision by British police to persecute Palestinian supporters for allegedly encouraging support for proscribed organisations Hamas and Hezbollah is notorious, with even tangential alleged references leading to arrest. Sarah Wilkinson, Richard Medhurst, Asa Winstanley, Richard Barnard and myself are all notable victims, and the persecution has been greatly intensified by Keir Starmer.

Yet Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is also a proscribed group in the UK. But both British mainstream media and British Muslim outlets have been openly promoting and praising HTS for a week – frankly much more openly than I have ever witnessed anyone in the UK support Hamas and Hezbollah – and not a single person has been arrested or even warned by UK police.

That in itself is the strongest of indications that western security services are fully behind the current attack on Syria.

For the record, I think it is an appalling law, and nobody should be prosecuted for expressing an opinion either way. But the politically biased application of the law is undeniable.

When the entire corporate and state media in the West puts out a unified narrative that Syrians are overjoyed to be released by HTS from the tyranny of the Assad regime – and says nothing whatsoever of the accompanying torture and execution of Shias, and destruction of Christmas decorations and icons – it ought to be obvious to everybody where this is coming from.

Yet – and this is another UK domestic repercussion – a very substantial number of Muslims in the UK support HTS and the Syrian rebels, because of the funding pumped into UK mosques from Saudi and Emirate Salafist sources. This is allied to the UK security service influence also wielded through the mosques, both by sponsorship programmes and “think tanks” benefiting approved religious leaders, and by the execrable coercive Prevent programme.

UK Muslim outlets that have been ostensibly pro-Palestinian – like Middle East Eye and 5 Pillars – enthusiastically back Israel’s Syrian allies in ensuring the destruction of resistance to the genocide of the Palestinians. Al Jazeera alternates between items detailing dreadful massacre in Palestine, and items extolling the Syrian rebels bringing Israel-allied rule to Syria.

Among the mechanisms they employ to reconcile this is a refusal to acknowledge the vital role of Syria in enabling the supply of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. Which supply the jihadists have now cut off, to the absolute delight of Israel, and in conjunction with both Israeli and US air strikes.

In the final analysis, for many Sunni Muslims both in the Middle East and in the West, the pull seems to be stronger of sectarian hatred of the Shia and the imposition of Salafism, than preventing the ultimate destruction of the Palestinian nation.

I am not a Muslim. My Muslim friends happen to be almost entirely Sunni. I personally regard the continuing division over the leadership of the religion over a millennium ago as deeply unhelpful and a source of unnecessary continued hate.

But as a historian I do know that the western colonial powers have consciously and explicitly used the Sunni/Shia split for centuries to divide and rule. In the 1830’s, Alexander Burnes was writing reports on how to use the division in Sind between Shia rulers and Sunni populations to aid British colonial expansion.

On 12 May 1838, in his letter from Simla setting out his decision to launch the first British invasion of Afghanistan, British Governor General Lord Auckland included plans to exploit Shia/Sunni division in both Sind and Afghanistan to aid the British military attack.

The colonial powers have been doing it for centuries, Muslim communities keep falling for it, and the British and Americans are doing it right now to further their remodelling of the Middle East.

Simply put, many Sunni Muslims have been brainwashed into hating Shia Muslims more than they hate those currently committing genocide of an overwhelmingly Sunni population in Gaza.

I refer to the UK because I witnessed this first hand during the election campaign in Blackburn. But the same is true all over the Muslim world. Not one Sunni Muslim-led state has lifted a single finger to prevent the genocide of the Palestinians.

Their leadership is using anti-Shia sectarianism to maintain popular support for a de facto alliance with Israel against the only groups – Iran, Houthi and Hezbollah – which actually did attempt to give the Palestinians practical support in resistance. And against the Syrian government which facilitated supply.

The unspoken but very real bargain is this. The Sunni powers will accept the wiping out of the entire Palestinian nation and formation of Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia communities in Syria and Lebanon by Israel and forces backed by NATO (including Turkey).

There are, of course, contradictions in this grand alliance. The United States’ Kurdish allies in Iraq are unlikely to be happy with Turkey’s destruction of Kurdish groups in Syria, which is what Erdoğan gains from Turkey’s very active military role in toppling Syria – in addition to extending Turkish control of oilfields.

The Iran-friendly Iraqi government will have further difficulty with reconciling US continuing occupation of swathes of its country, as they realise they are the next target.

The Lebanese army is under control of the USA, and Hezbollah must have been greatly weakened to have agreed the disastrous ceasefire with Israel. Christian fascist militias traditionally allied to Israel are increasingly visible in parts of Beirut, though whether they would be stupid enough to make common cause with jihadists from the North may be open to question. But should Syria fall entirely to jihadist rule – which may happen fast – I do not rule out Lebanon following very quickly indeed, and being integrated into a Salafist Greater Syria.

How the Palestinians of Jordan would react to this disastrous turn of events, it is hard to be sure. The British puppet Hashemite Kingdom is the designated destination for ethnically cleansed West Bank Palestinians under the Greater Israel plan.

What this all potentially amounts to is the end of pluralism in the Levant and its replacement by supremacism. An ethno-supremacist Greater Israel and a religio-supremacist Salafist Greater Syria.

Unlike many readers, I have never been a fan of the Assad regime or blind to its human rights violations. But what it did undeniably do was maintain a pluralist state where the most amazing historical religious and community traditions – including Sunni (and many Sunni do support Assad), Shia, Alaouites, descendants of the first Christians, and speakers of Aramaic, the language of Jesus – were all able to co-exist.

The same is true of Lebanon.

What we are witnessing is the destruction of that and imposition of a Saudi-style rule. All the little cultural things that indicate pluralism – from Christmas trees to language classes to winemaking to women going unveiled – have just been destroyed in Aleppo and could be destroyed from Damascus to Beirut.

I do not pretend that there are not genuine liberal democrats among the opposition to Assad. But they have negligible military significance, and the idea that they would be influential in a new government is delusion.

In Israel, which pretended to be a pluralist state, the mask is off. The Muslim call to prayer has just been banned. Arab minority members of the Knesset have been suspended for criticising Netanyahu and genocide. More walls and gates are built every day, not just in unlawfully occupied territories but in the “state of Israel” itself, to enforce apartheid.

I confess I once had the impression that Hezbollah was itself a religio-supremacist organisation; the dress and style of its leadership look theocratic. Then I came here and visited places like Tyre, which has been under Hezbollah elected local government for decades, and found that swimwear and alcohol are allowed on the beach and the veil is optional, while there are completely unmolested Christian communities there.

I will never now see Gaza, but wonder if I might have been similarly surprised by Hamas rule.

It is the United States which is promoting the cause of religious extremism and of the end, all over the Middle East, of a societal pluralism similar to Western norms. That is of course a direct consequence of the United States being allied to both the two religio-supremacist centres of Israel and Saudi Arabia.

It is the USA which is destroying pluralism, and it is Iran and its allies which defend pluralism. I would not have seen this clearly had I not come here. But once seen, it is blindingly obvious.

Beirut 6 December 2024

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My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.

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This mini-documentary gives much more extensive coverage of our visit to Baalbek just before the ceasefire. The day before we went, sixty civilians had been killed in Israeli bombings throughout the small city. This video captures something of the terror with which the inhabitants had been living for months, and their extraordinary resilience.

With thanks to Niels Ladefoged for the filming and editing.

All content on this blog is freely available to republish or reproduce, including in translation. We are entirely dependent on your donations and subscriptions. We receive no state, corporate or grant funding.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the large advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. If you wish, you can follow on Substack for free and then, when you get the email notification, come here to read the new article.

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Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

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Only Israel has opened fire since the start of the “ceasefire”, and Israel has done so repeatedly. Nobody has fired back.

Israel has for three days in a row attacked alleged Hezbollah rocket sites with bombs or missiles, killing at least four people and probably more. Israel has opened fire on journalists. It has critically wounded two mourners at a funeral. There are numerous reports of Lebanese civilians returning to their homes in the South coming under fire from Israeli troops.

This video shows the two people shot by snipers at a funeral. The man is saying that they had permission for the funeral from UNIFIL and from the Lebanese Army.

Israel has also used the “ceasefire” to advance its forces including tanks into towns and villages from which they had been repulsed and which Israel could not take by fighting. It has entrenched positions in Southern Lebanon, issued orders to Lebanese civilians not to return to over sixty villages in South Lebanon – none of which it had managed to permanently occupy in the fighting – and is reinforcing, re-arming and re-equipping.

South Lebanon | ambulance smashed

Israeli soldiers of the 7th brigade deliberately runs over a Lebanese ambulance as published today on their private social media accounts pic.twitter.com/NXo8Xw15D2

— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) November 29, 2024

Israel in fact is treating the “ceasefire” as unconditional surrender. All of this was entirely predictable, not only from Israel’s past and normal behaviour, but also on the face of the “ceasefire” document itself, which is a wildly unbalanced document.

It offends my own sensibilities as a former diplomat that the Lebanese foreign ministry signed up to such an abject and undisguised document of submission.

Let us start by analysing paragraph 2 of this document:

2. From 4am, November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military or other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air or sea.

You see the imbalance immediately.

Lebanese armed groups will be stopped from carrying out “any operations against Israel” whereas Israel will not carry out “any offensive military operations.”

There is no way that Lebanon should ever have accepted that the term “offensive” is inserted for one side only. There is no possible way of parsing this, other than that Israel is still allowed to fire, and nobody else can. Israel has in fact fired, killed and wounded with abandon since the ceasefire came into force, and of course characterises this as “defensive” military action.

The Lebanese government have recorded 51 breaches of the ceasefire by Israel in three days.

The United States and its allies have designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation – a FTO in US legal parlance. The USA – which is set up as the arbiter of the ceasefire – therefore views any military action by Israel against anyone or anything deemed “Hezbollah”, anywhere and anytime, as a legitimate counter-terrorism operation.

The USA therefore simply takes the view – and the UK will take the same view – that each and every attack by Israel is not a violation of the ceasefire, but legitimate counter-terrorism.

There is no doubt of this whatsoever.

Lebanon can do nothing to monitor or prevent the reinforcement of Israeli positions in Southern Lebanon (spoiler – Israel has no intention of ever withdrawing) because the ceasefire stipulates not only that the Israeli army has sixty days’ leisure to leave Southern Lebanon, but that in that sixty days the Lebanese armed forces cannot enter the areas Israel is occupying: including not taking control of their own Southern border and thus they cannot check what troops and weapons Israel is moving across unopposed.

12. Upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities according to paragraph one, Israel will withdraw its forces in a phased manner south of the Blue Line, and in parallel the LAF will deploy to positions in the Southern Litani Area shown in the attached LAF Deployment Plan, and will commence the implementation of its obligations under the commitments, including the dismantling of unauthorised sites and infrastructure and confiscating unauthorised arms and related materiel. The Mechanism will co-ordinate execution by the Israel Defence Forces and LAF of the specific and detailed plan for the phased withdrawal and deployment in these areas, which should not exceed 60 days.

“The mechanism” comprises the United States, France and the United Nations through the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). But it is plainly the United States which is calling the shots. The United Nations “hosts” the mechanism, while the United States “chairs” it.

This distinction between “hosting” and “chairing” is a new one on me. It appears to mean that the United Nations will be permitted to make the tea.

At para 11 the Agreement states that the Lebanese Armed Forces will “upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities” deploy troops to control all border crossings, but this is immediately negated by para 12 which stipulates the LAF will only enter the Israeli-controlled area – including the border – in a phased manner over sixty days.

What the LAF will do instead is set up a new Southern Lebanese border along the Litani river. That is the practical meaning of para 11. It is in effect a new border, and the Israelis control to the South of it

In addition, the LAF will deploy forces, set road blocks and checkpoints on all the roads and bridges along the line delineating the Southern Litani Area.

This is why the day before the ceasefire, the Israelis flew in a platoon of special forces for a few seconds of photo opportunity on the Litani River, so they could claim their armed forces had reached to there.

The United States holds all of the cards. The Lebanese Armed Forces are the only army I can think of in modern history which “remained neutral” when their country was invaded. The Lebanese Armed Forces are literally in the pay of the United States.

This is a complex country. The truth is that the majority of the soldiers of the Lebanese Army would in fact defend their country against Israel given half a chance, while their leadership has other ideas entirely and has US-backed political ambitions.

The United States is a party to the conflict. The bombs falling on Lebanese heads are American bombs, dropping from American planes. The United States is put in charge of the “peace” by this Agreement. The current US imperial hegemon is having its coat carried by the former colonial power France, in exchange for which honour France granted immunity to Netanyahu for war crimes.

People in Lebanon are desperate for peace. It is at United States insistence that Lebanon has no air defences – historically the USA insisted on removal of those given by Syria, and the USA has ensured they were never replaced. The USA is holding Lebanon down for Israel to violate.

The United States wants to see Lebanon divided, weak and at the mercy of Israel, and wants to see a reduction of the Shia population. The second-largest US Embassy in the world is being built here as a hub of regional influence, and on the day the ceasefire came into force the USA and Israel activated the attack on Aleppo by their proxy army in Syria.

Hezbollah is not officially a party to the Ceasefire Agreement, which is between states, but is the largest political party in the Lebanese parliament and a member of Lebanon’s coalition government. Hezbollah must therefore have agreed to the ceasefire deal. They have been desperate to portray this agreement as a victory, the confirmation that they fought off the Israeli invasion of Southern Lebanon.

We should not forget that well within living memory Israel occupied and held Beirut, with US and French support. So I fully understand that preventing that from happening again is an achievement. It is still more of an achievement given Hezbollah’s major losses in assassinated leadership, and crippled personnel from the terrorist pager attacks.

But this ceasefire agreement gives away any good result from the fighting.

Israel has shown that it has both the ability and the will to devastate Lebanon from the air, just as it has devastated Gaza. It has shown it will attack the same life-sustaining infrastructure and commit widespread acts of brutality without compunction. Lebanon has seen that, like Gaza, it has no defences and that the international community will do nothing to stop the slaughter in the short term.

Israel has spent 72 hours blatantly violating the ceasefire without a word of protest from the Western powers. The moment anybody fires back a single shot, the USA and its satellites will voice outrage, heavy bombing of Beirut will recommence and Israel will start trying to advance again from its new upgraded Southern bases within Lebanon.

I see this happening sooner rather than later. Peace deals which entirely favour one side never last, barring effective extermination of the injured party, and that has not happened.

Yet. Here is a reminder of Israel’s capacity for morality.

———————————

My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post.

Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above

Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]

Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

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Beirut Residents Return to the Devastated Suburbs