The full research paper on the latest nationally representative mortality survey in Iraq was published today in The Lancet. One point that has not received press attention, and was glossed over by the NY Times article we posted on yesterday, is the extremely high level of casualties inflicted by US forces. According to the published research:

Deaths attributable to the coalition accounted for 31% (95% CI 26-37) of post-invasion violent deaths. The proportion of violent deaths attributable to the coalition was much the same across periods (p=0?058). However, the actual number of violent deaths, including those that resulted from coalition forces, increased every year after the invasion.

Interestingly, the proportion found by this survey was consistent with that reported by the Iraq Body Count in 2005 when their media monitoring project found that 37% of civilian casualties were caused by US forces, the largest single cause of violent death. But what does 31% mean when considering the results of this new national survey?

To put it into numbers, US and UK troops have directly killed about 186,000 Iraqis since the war began. The invasion, occupation and resulting war has, overall, resulted in the deaths of about 650,000 more people than would of died if it had not happened.

Richard Horten, editor of The Lancet, writes in The Guardian on the findings of the study and the expectations of the government response.

The New York Times is reporting on the latest survey results from Iraq which show that that 600,000 civilians may have died in violence across Iraq since the 2003 American invasion, the highest estimate ever for the toll of the war.

Go here for the full article.

Next month, on the 6th November Military Families Against the War go to court in a bid for a full public inquiry into why the UK went to war in Iraq.

Earlier this year the Court of Appeal ruled they were entitled to apply for a judicial review of the government’s refusal to hold an independent inquiry.

Peter Brierley, whose son Shaun died in Iraq March 2003 said:

“At last our case will be heard in full, I am convinced that my son died for no good reason as he should not have been sent to Iraq in the first place. I am looking forward to hearing the three defendants having to explain how they justify the invasion.”

Thanks to Lenin’s Tomb who also has a nice write up from the ‘Peace Train’ and a review of speeches and the days events.

A video of Craig’s speech at the demonstration can be viewed here courtesy of Ady Cousins from MFAW.

Unexpected speakers included Richard Horton, editor of the prestigious medical research journal, The Lancet. In November 2004 the Lancet published the only representative survey performed, so far, to document the excess mortality arising from the invasion of Iraq. More recent surveillance data posted on this blog indicates just how catastrophic the situation has become since the survey was carried out.

However, don’t expect these inconvenient facts to get any airtime on the conference platform.

The full report from the UN can be found here

Summary from Yahoo News

BAGHDAD (AFP) – At least 6,599 civilians were killed across war-torn Iraq in the months of July and August, the United Nations said.

In July at least 3,590 people were killed and in August 3,009 died in bloody attacks on civilians, according to the UN human rights report on Wednesday.

“The month of July witnessed an increase in the number of security related incidents resulting in an unprecedented number of civilians killed throughout the country,” the report said.

“Although the number of killings decreased at the beginning of August, further increases were evident towards the end of the month in Baghdad and other governorates.”

The country is in the grip of a bitter conflict between the newly empowered Shiite majority and the ousted Sunni Arab elite that has left thousands dead since February.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Monday warned that Iraq was on the brink of all-out civil war.

From BBC Online

The US threatened to bomb Pakistan “back to the stone age” unless it joined the fight against al-Qaeda, President Pervez Musharraf has said. General Musharraf said the warning was delivered by former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to Pakistan’s intelligence director.

“I think it was a very rude remark,” Mr Musharraf told CBS television.

Pakistan agreed to side with the US, but Gen Musharraf said it did so based on his country’s national interest.

“One has to think and take actions in the interest of the nation, and that’s what I did,” he said.

‘Ludicrous’ requests

The extracts from the CBS show 60 Minutes, which will run on Sunday, were released on the same day that the White House praised Pakistan for its co-operation in America’s “war on terror”.

Gen Musharraf is due to meet US President George W Bush at the White House on Friday.

He is also due to launch his autobiography next week and some analysts say the timing of the revelation may be an attempt to generate interest in the book.

The White House and US State Department declined to comment on the 60 Minutes interview.

The Pakistani president said that, following the attacks of 11 September 2001, the US made some “ludicrous” demands of Pakistan.

“The intelligence director told me that Mr Armitage said, ‘Be prepared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the Stone Age’,” he said.

The US envoy also insisted that Pakistan suppress domestic expression of support for attacks on the United States, he said.

“If somebody’s expressing views, we cannot curb the expression of views,” Gen Musharraf said.

Mr Armitage also allegedly demanded that Pakistan allow the US to use its border posts as staging points for the war on Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s support was considered crucial in the defeat of Afghanistan’s Taleban government, which Pakistan had helped to bring to power.

President Musharraf has proved a loyal ally though many now will question the means used to extract the co-operation, says the BBC’s US state department correspondent Jonathan Beale.

The Labour Council in Manchester had previously sought to ban the peace camp planned for this coming weekend.

From Military Families Against the War

‘Rose Gentle and Peter Brierley are pleased to announce that the Peace

Camp in Central Manchester will go ahead as planned.

The Camp will start at 3pm on Thursday 21st September and run until the beginning of the Stop the War demonstration on the 23rd. The venue for the Camp will be the Peace Gardens, St Peters Square, thanks to an agreement with Manchester City Council.

This is within sight of the Tony Blair’s luxury hotel. For over two

years now families of servicemen killed in Iraq have been seeking a

meeting with the Prime Minister. The Camp is part of their campaign.

Rose and Peter said today, ‘we would like to thank the people of

Manchester for all the support we have received from them. They have

shown to us that Manchester is truly a city of peace and we look forward to welcoming all those who wish to visit us at the Camp.’

The court heard yesterday that captive Iraqis were beaten with iron bars, kicked, starved, and forced to drink their own urine during a catalogue of abuse which led to the death of one prisoner.

British soldier is first to admit war crime

From The Independent

A British soldier has become the first person to plead guilty to war crimes. Cpl Donald Payne admitted inhumanely treating civilians in Basra four months after the official end of the war.

But Cpl Payne, 35, formerly of the Queen’s Lancashire Regiment, now of the renamed Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment, pleaded not guilty to manslaughter and perverting the course of justice at the start of the first court martial of British troops accused of war crimes under the International Criminal Court Act (ICCA) 2001.

The court heard yesterday that captive Iraqis were beaten with iron bars, kicked, starved, and forced to drink their own urine during a catalogue of abuse which led to the death of one prisoner.

The dead man, Baha Mousa, 26, had 93 injuries to his body. Two other Iraqis were severely wounded in the “systematic mistreatment” meted out to them in 36 hours of incarceration, the hearing was told.

Cpl Payne’s six co-defendants pleaded not guilty to crimes relating to the death of Mr Mousa.

Among the seven soldiers in the dock in connection with the death and the alleged assaults is the most senior officer to face charges over Iraq war, Colonel Jorge Mendonca, who is accused of negligence in performing his duties by failing the halt the ill-treatment by his men.

The Military Court Centre, at Bulford Camp on Salisbury Plain, heard that the beating of the prisoners took place “for no apparent reason, sometimes, it seems, for the entertainment of others” among the British contingent.

Julian Bevan QC, for the prosecution, told the court that the case against the seven defendants centred on the alleged ill-treatment received by Iraqi civilians held for a period of about 36 hours at a temporary detention facility in Basra on 14 and 15 September 2003.

(more…)

By Sherwood Ross in Middle East Times (Sept 3)

WASHINGTON — At least a score of high Bush Administration officials authorized, and hundreds of US military and other government employees committed, crimes involving the torture of prisoners captured in the Middle East, published reports and legal documents indicate.

Indeed, any impartial probe of the widespread abuse of prisoners in US custody could go well beyond the handful of prison guards who have been arrested and tried to date. The list would include top White House officials who designed the torture policies and Pentagon flag officers who executed them. It would include CIA officials and their contract pilots and immigration personnel involved in abducting suspects to be tortured. It would include doctors, nurses, and paramedics who abetted interrogators in torture. And the civilian contractors of the Department of Defense (DOD) who tortured, and foreign officials who turned suspects over to US authorities for torture.

In his May 8, 2004, speech, US President George W. Bush deplored “shocking conduct in Iraqi prisons by a small number of American servicemen and women.” But he added, “We will learn the facts, the extent of the abuse, and the identities of those involved. They will answer for their actions.”

As that’s a very good idea, let’s begin, starting at the top.

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From Postman Patel

Al-Arabiya, is an independent Dubai based Arabic language satellite news station with offices in over 40 major cities. It was launched in 2002 in opposition to Al Jazeera. It was originally funded by Saudi-controlled pan-Arab satellite TV pioneer MBC, Lebanon’s Hariri Group, and other investors from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Gulf states. It was set up as an all-news channel to compete directly with Qatar-based al-Jazeera TV.

The Iraqi Government have issued an order to close the station down in Baghdad. The station was able to broadcast live the entry of police to close their Baghdad city centre studios.

The order apparently was issued by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Cabinet and said TV stations should uphold the code of media ethics (?) , or else the government would take legal action against them.

In November 2003, the U.S.-Paul Bremer’s Governing Council banned Al-Arabiya from reporting from Baghdad after it aired an audio tape, said to be from Saddam Hussein, who was still at large at the time. 46 Coalition troops had been killed that month, there had been a loss of a Chinook helicopter and Bremer had just returned from a pep talk with Cheney from Washington.(See BBC Online report at the time)This action was approved by Bremer but curiously in his book “My Year in Iraq” forgets to mention it.(see WAPO report)Charles Heatly, a spokesman with the U.S.-led administration said, “Ambassador Bremer fully agreed with and supported the Governing Council’s decision.”

Shortly after, Saddam was found and captured and they were allowed to continue, famously they interviewed the leader of the free world and Commander in Chief of the occupying forces in May 2004. (White House transcript)

Just over a year ago in August 2005 Iraq ( Prime Minister Iyad Allawi) re-introduced the death sentence. Common during Saddam’s rule, capital punishment was suspended by the occupying US authorities in 2003. “This law is to help protect the Iraqi people in the face of an onslaught of indiscriminate murder. I think it may help,” said, Minister of State Adnan al-Janabi adding that it would remain in force until the security situation was deemed more stable.

This was condemned by the UN, European states and human-rights groups. “If the Iraqi government has reintroduced the death penalty we will lobby them to abolish it as we would do with other states that have the death penalty,” a Foreign Office spokesman said at the time.(To date la Beckett remains silent on the matter)

The first 3 victims were members of Ansar al-Sunna, an insurgent group, who were executed on September 1st 2005 after confessing to their crimes in a televised trial broadcast in May from al-Kut, in southern Iraq.

The men were identified as Bayan Ahmad al-Jaf, 30, a Kurdish taxi driver, and two Sunni Arabs, Uday Dawoud al-Dulaimi, 25, a builder, and Taher Jassim Abbas, 44, a butcher. They were found guilty of kidnapping and murdering three policemen and abducting, raping and killing Iraqi women.

The Iraqi authorities took over responsibility for the overcrowded Abu Ghraib prison at the weekend where there are said to be hundreds of prisoners who have received a death sentence. There are also reports that several gallows have been recently installed. On Wednesday a mass execution of 27 people took place. (Daily Telegraph 8/8/06)

An Iraqi Justice Ministry official said two of those hanged had been convicted of terrorism charges, and the other 25 ‘ including a woman ‘ were convicted of murder and kidnapping. In confirming the hangings a spokesman called the dead prisoners, “terrorists”, a name normally reserved for insurgents who have attacked coalition or Iraqi forces.

News of the executions was made public by Prime Minister al-Maliki when attending a ceremony to hand control of Iraq’s military to the recently elected government from American control.

The verdict on Saddam Hussein is expected this month and he faces a death sentence, he has asked to face a military firing squad rather than hanging.

Military Families Against the War will host a Peace Camp to coincide with September’s TIME TO GO demonstration at the Labour conference in Manchester.

‘ The camp will begin in Albert Square at 3pm on Thursday 21st September.

‘ Open to all who want to show their support for our campaign to get the troops home.

‘ Please publicise the Peace Camp, tell your family and friends, post the details on web forums or groups.

‘ If you would like to take part in the peace camp contact MFAW at [email protected]

From Yahoo News

President George W. Bush seized on a foiled London airline bomb plot to hammer unnamed critics he accused of having all but forgotten the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Weighed down by the unpopular war in Iraq, Bush and his aides have tried to shift the national political debate from that conflict to the broader and more popular global war on terrorism ahead of November 7 congressional elections.

The London conspiracy is “a stark reminder that this nation is at war with Islamic fascists who will use any means to destroy those of us who love freedom, to hurt our nation,” the president said on a day trip to Wisconsin.

“It is a mistake to believe there is no threat to the United States of America,” he said. “We’ve taken a lot of measures to protect the American people. But obviously we still aren’t completely safe.”

His remarks came a day after the White House orchestrated an exceptionally aggressive campaign to tar opposition Democrats as weak on terrorism, knowing what Democrats didn’t: News of the plot could soon break.

(more…)

From the Scotsman

LONDON – Iraq is more likely to slide into civil war than turn into a democracy, Britain’s outgoing ambassador to Baghdad wrote in a leaked diplomatic cable, the BBC reported on Thursday.

William Patey’s final cable from Baghdad gives a far more pessimistic assessment for prospects in Iraq than Britain has disclosed in public. It warns of the prospect of Shi’ite militia forming a “state within a state”, like Hizbollah in Lebanon.

“The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy,” he wrote, according to excerpts quoted by the BBC.

“Even the lowered expectation of President (George W.) Bush for Iraq — a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror — must remain in doubt,” said the cable, sent to Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Describing the main Shi’ite militia, he wrote: “If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the (Mehdi Army) from developing into a state within a state, as Hizbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority.”

Patey did, however, also say that the situation in Iraq “is not hopeless”.

The Foreign Office said it does not comment on leaked documents.

“Every day the capacity of the Iraqi security forces to manage their own security is growing,” a spokeswoman said.

The view expressed in Patey’s cable reflects pessimism that has settled among senior Iraqi officials as violence has increased in the three months since a new “unity” government took power.

A senior Iraqi government official told Reuters last month that “Iraq as a political project is finished”, with the capital split into Sunni and Shi’ite districts and officials working to divide control of the country on ethnic and sectarian lines.

From The Herald (27.07.06)

THE families of four young soldiers killed in Iraq were yesterday granted permission to challenge the government’s refusal to hold a public inquiry into why the UK took part in the war.

But senior appeal court judges who overturned a previous ruling blocking the right to a judicial review over the legality of the conflict also warned it was unlikely that the move “has a real prospect of success”.

The judges added that there were “formidable hurdles in the way of the applicants”, who include Rose Gentle, the Glasgow housewife-turned-campaigner who lost her 19-year-old son Gordon in a roadside bomb attack in Basra in 2004. Lawyers for the government claim it would be “an unwarranted shift of power” for the courts to make pronouncements on the right of an elected government to go to war.

Despite this, Sir Anthony Clarke, the Master of the Rolls, Lord Justice Judge and Lord Justice Dyson, ruled that it was “at least arguable that the question of whether the invasion was lawful ‘ or reasonably thought to be lawful ‘ as a matter of international law is worthy of investigation.”

(more…)

From The Scotsman

MP says files into Kelly death have been wiped

AN MP conducting an investigation into the death of Dr David Kelly last night claimed his computer files have been wiped.

Norman Baker, Lewes MP, said he has evidence to prove Dr Kelly did not die as a result of suicide. The Liberal Democrat said he had told police he believes computer files at his Lewes constituency office have been remotely wiped.

The MP told the BBC: “What my investigations to date have demonstrated is that there are significant medical doubts from professional medical people about the alleged cause of death.

“Indeed there are a number of specialist medical experts who tell me that it is clinically impossible for Dr David Kelly to have died the way that was described.

“I am suggesting the explanation for suicide simply doesn’t add up.”

Dr Kelly was the Ministry of Defence scientist whose conversations with a BBC journalist led to reports that the government “sexed up” the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. In July 2003 he was found dead with his wrists slashed.

Writer John Pilger is the latest addition to A NIGHT OF CONSCIENCE on Wednesday 28 June for Flight-Lieutenant Malcolm Kendall-Smith, now serving an eight month sentence in Cheltenham Prison for refusing to fight an illegal war in Iraq.

Tickets are still available for this event which aims to raise funds to help pay the ‘20,000 legal costs imposed on Malcolm. People are coming from all over the country, so moved have they been Malcolm’s refusal to be deployed to Iraq, the first serving officer to do so.

A NIGHT OF CONSCIENCE will be introduced by Tony Benn. Appearing with John Pilger, will be comedians Mark Thomas and Mark Steel, composer Michael Nyman, film director Ken Loach, playwrights David Edgar and Caryl Churchill, actors Simon Callow and Janet Suzman, fashion designer Vivienne Westwood and many others from film, stage, television and politics.

Further details can be found here

Yesterday we posted an article on the US Iraq Embassy memo, published by the Washington Post, that exposes the mis-match between Bush’s upbeat and misleading assessment and the grim reality on the ground.

Media Matters comments on the striking lack of covergae by mainstream media.

The memo can be read here(PDF)

By Greg Mitchell in Editor and Publisher

NEW YORK The Washington Post has obtained a cable, marked “sensitive,” that it says show that just before President Bush left on a surprise trip last Monday to the Green Zone in Baghdad for an upbeat assessment of the situation there, “the U.S. Embassy in Iraq painted a starkly different portrait of increasing danger and hardship faced by its Iraqi employees.”

This cable outlines, the Post reported Sunday, “the daily-worsening conditions for those who live outside the heavily guarded international zone: harassment, threats and the employees’ constant fears that their neighbors will discover they work for the U.S. government.”

It’s actually far worse than that, as the details published below indicate, which include references to abductions, threats to women’s rights, and “ethnic cleansing.”

A PDF copy of the cable shows that it was sent to the SecState in Washington, D.C. from “AMEmbassy Baghdad” on June 6. The typed name at the very bottom is Khalilzad — the name of the U.S. Ambassador, though it is not known if this means he wrote the memo or merely approved it.

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The BBC have reported that it continues to be business as usual for Tim Spicer and Aegis.

The British mercenary firm has welcomed the outcome of a US army investigation clearing it of criminal offences. The US military launched an inquiry after a video showing an Aegis Defence Services contractor firing at civilian cars in Iraq was shown on the internet.

Ageis, which has a Pentagon contract in Iraq said to be worth ‘157m, said the man responsible for the film is now the subject of legal action.

Aegis also revealed that its own investigation, which was handed to the US Army’s Criminal Investigation Division, had found that the incident shown on the film was within the rules on the use of force by civilian personnel.

See Back in the Money and The Name Game for background and comment.