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“Although we claim three or four times more cases than is claimed by France, France has more than twice the number of people in intensive care?”
Overall, France has had fewer deaths than the UK both on a per capita basis and cumulative overall total (not by a lot as might be expected as their populations are similar in number). Looking at the ICU admissions in France they have been consistently almost double the UK mechanically ventilated figures over the entire pandemic timeframe. That doesn’t really add up. I suspect that the figures from France include all patients admitted to ICU whether they are ventilated or not whereas the figures from UK gov are for mechanically ventilated patients only. There are many admitted to ICU for oxygen support and close monitoring who are not ventilated. I don’t know this for sure as it’s difficult to find out the inclusion criteria in the figures used.
The total cases per million population for UK and France are almost identical with France slightly higher. Also, I’d like to be sure how the number of tests performed are counted. If 4 tests are performed on one person in the same episode that to me is one test not 4. Again, it’s difficult to find and if anyone can shed light on that please do so.
Michael, Australia wasn’t “hiding in caves”.
Neither was New Zealand who have almost eliminated the delta wave though there is a little way to go yet. Here is an article from NYT from 2 weeks ago. Reading both articles it’s clear what the MSM think of NZ’s elimination strategy.
For comparison Ireland has had 5155 deaths to NZ’s 27 both with approx equivalent populations. I know where I’d rather be.A scientific research group wanted to know how Delta might mutate if circulated in a partially vaccinated population, in which older members were vaccinated and younger members were not, so they tried it in humanised mice.
Delta mutated, becoming lethal to young mice.
“Oh it only kills the old and the sick”. Yeah, right.
I’m finding the resentment, the sour grapes, directed at countries that are successfully suppressing SARS-CoV-2, extremely distasteful. It’s bad enough living on Plague Island; I really don’t want it to become Plague Planet. Exaggeration of their recent Delta lockdowns is also very ugly. It’s also misleading; residents of China, Australia and New Zealand have all spent a lot less time than most under restrictions.
It’s like the most horrible side of primary school kids; “Nah nah ni nah nah”. It’s as if I lost a leg in a traffic incident, and then forever after cheered whenever someone else might lose a limb.
Can anyone have a guess why the U.K. government have just ditched the contract for the French covid-jab being brewed in Scotland?
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210913-uk-cancels-covid-jab-contract-with-franco-austrian-firm-valnevaM N
it looks like every one was gambling on many horses and this horse is far behind and there is option to take your bet off or paying penalties which are smaller then honouring contract.
Michael norton – “Can anyone have a guess…”
Judging from previous form, Boris or some senior minister has found someone new they’d like to shag and will re-offer the contract such that money falls into their prospect’s pocket. Conversely, maybe the original contract secured Boris or some minister a regular shag, but whoever it was is sick of laying back and thinking of England.
My guess why the U.K. government has cancelled the Valneva jab, is because it is only quasi-effective.
You can’t hide from Delta
https://www.rt.com/news/534773-china-covid19-case-infections-outbreak/
The Chinese authorities have said that Covid-19 infections in the southeastern province of Fujian have more than doubled in the previous 24 hours. Preliminary tests suggest the Delta variant is responsible for some of the cases.
Looks like Boris is going to announce us, older persons are to get a third jab, at least half a year, after our second jab. Personally I would have thought the priority is to hunt down the Resfuseniks and force them to be jabbed.
It is the Refuseniks who are getting seriously ill and some are being killed by Delta.“Can anyone have a guess……….”
Who knows. Perhaps they have over ordered. From this article in the Scotsman:
It’s a “traditional” vaccine: “VLA2001 (the vaccine designated ref number) consists of inactivated whole virus particles of SARS-CoV-2 with high S-protein density, in combination with two adjuvants, alum and cytosine phosphoguanine (CpgG 1018).” So it doesn’t showcase the newer vaccine technologies. Also VLA2001 is expected to conform with standard cold chain requirements (2 degrees to 8 degrees centigrade) which would be useful.It is currently in phase 3 clinical trials with results due October. Earlier phase trial results were praised by Boris as “very promising” and I have seen reference to an 80% protection and 100% seroconversion in the high dose group. (That ref is from Valneva’s website and 100% effective always gives me pause). Valneva have stated “the UK Government alleges that the company has breached supply agreement obligations,” allegations they strenuously deny. All the other articles I have seen elsewhere say and quote the same things but no detail regarding the alleged breaches is given.
“The then UK Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, said at the time that the Valneva vaccine “showcases the best of Scottish expertise right at the heart of our UK vaccine endeavour, demonstrating the strength of our union and what the UK can achieve when it works together.”
So much for that.
It’s a French company.Given all the other stuff going on such as the N.Ireland withdrawal agreement argument and the channel crossing migrants etc etc maybe they wanted to give the French and EU the middle finger.
Until we know more about the breaches of contract it’s guess work. Valneva’s website blurb on this vaccine.
– “You can’t hide from Delta”
China will crush Delta. They have already done so at least once.
There is no way that the Chinese government will tolerate the economic damage that most governments have permitted. Want to bet with me? The curves are here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/#graph-cases-daily
Russia
“Let’s see how Sputnik V works in real life: Putin reveals he had close contact with Covid-19 infected person for a whole day”
https://www.rt.com/russia/534811-sputnikv-putin-contact-covid19/
In August 2020, Sputnik V became the world’s first registered Covid-19 vaccine. Since then, it has been authorized in 70 different countries.
I think there had been some talk of people who had the Oxford for their first jab being offered Sputnik as their second?
The Sputnik vaccine is under “rolling review” by the European Medicines Agency along with 4 others which doesn’t include the Valneva vaccine. The last update from EMA regarding Sputnik vaccine was March 2021 where they stated it was under rolling review. Apparently Russia’s Gamaleya National Centre of Epidemiology and Microbiology who developed it are not accustomed to dealing with the requirements of such a regulatory agency. Or perhaps the EMA is dragging its feet, who knows?
Regarding Valneva Javid said this in parliament: “There are commercial reasons that we have cancelled the contract, but what I can [say] is that it was also clear to us that the vaccine in question that the company was developing would not get approval by the MHRA here in the UK……..”
“I think there had been some talk of people who had the Oxford for their first jab being offered Sputnik as their second?”
I think this may have happened in Argentina due to shortage of the Astrazeneca vaccine for second doses but it’s not approved in the UK for use. The Ministry of Health of Buenos Aires province published a Lancet article:
“Sputnik Light has shown efficacy of 82.1 to 87.6% against hospitalisations. The component of Sputnik V has shown 78.6 to 83.7% efficacy among elderly people aged between 60 to 79 years.”
ET, the Vaccine chap who has done a good job has just been promoted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadhim_ZahawiI wonder if he was the main person responsible for thwarting the French vaccine?
I knew he was an Iraqi, I have just read he is a Kurd.
I wonder if we will have a new Vaccine Tsar?Just heard this on R4 this morning.
Donald Trump drug to be given to very ill covid victims in the U.K.https://www.rt.com/uk/535168-covid-antibody-drug-trump/
Ronapreve, will become available for coronavirus parents across Britain next week, the UK government has said. The drug was used to treat then-US President Donald Trump, who hailed it as a “cure” for Covid-19.
The drug, jointly developed by Roche and Regeneron, will be initially used among those with a weak antibody response to the virus, British health authorities said Friday.Not sure Roche would be happy with it being referred to as “The Donald Trump” drug.
Here is a BMJ Article Ronapreve for prophylaxis and treatment of covid-19 and should you be interested the Summary of Product Characteristics from UK.Gov. The more treatment options that are available and are effective the better for everyone.
There are a number of other monoclonal antibody treatments in the works from other pharma companies.“ET, the Vaccine chap who has done a good job has just been promoted.”
I saw that, he did a good job.
My next door neighbour has just told me that one of her three girls has just tested positive for covid, obviously picked up in the first week of return to school. My neighbour has informed the school. The school has said the covid positive child, a twin must stay at home but the other two can come to school.Even the other twin, who shares a bunk bed.
Just heard the top General Practitioner speaking on R4 he said just because people have a right to ask for face to face does not mean that G.P.’s will make it happen. He said there is far too much covid about.
They can’t have people spreading covid to their staff.– “He said there is far too much covid about.”
I sympathise with the medical staff. Obviously they want to avoid becoming another infection route, and like firefighters, it’s a danger they constantly face – they are the ones who see the people who don’t get better, or who spend weeks and months fully recovering. And to rub salt in the wound they’ve had considerable abuse from some of the deniers, especially on social media.
The UK is averaging over 140 deaths per day. It should start falling soon but it’s been over 100 for more than a month.
Clark ET and MN
I have favour to ask!
Few days ago I made comment that was misunderstood but what I was trying to say in sarcastic way was that (I can not find the title anymore) Economics and all other issues by ET was not broad enough. My intention was to limit Michael, to stay on that post instead starting many more others which take me time to switch between just to read same 3 people commenting. Right now I want to read again something posted on Economics etc.
Sorry but since we are so few commenting I would like it to be at the same place.
In theory would be nice to be segregated and people joining different subjects.Pigeon English, I got that your comment was sarcastic but I understood no more than that, so I didn’t reply.
Yes, it is inconvenient hopping about between threads, especially because the index of the discussion threads doesn’t update the latest comment links properly. But there’s a rule, enforced by the moderators, that comments should be on-topic, so it’s covid on this thread, the new AUKUS military cooperation and nuclear subs on the “New World Shifting to the Indo-Pacific new nuclear powered submarines” thread, and climate change, nuclear power and other energy sources on the “Climate, the science, politics, economics and anything else” thread.
However, if you look at the sidebar on the right, under “Recent Forum Replies”, the three latest comments are listed there, and those links work properly.
I think it’s probably best to keep to the rules because they help the moderators to maintain some order. There are only the three of us at present, but some commenters, especially conspiracy theorists, seem to love derailing threads.
What I would like to be able to understand is the difference between say Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, France and the U.K. Poland has very little covid.
Italy has had a high proportion of deaths.
Germany seems to be doing quite well.
Now the U.K. is top of the pile for most deaths and most (counted) infections.
Yet, France always has twice as many in I.C.U.
that is the bit I can not understand?“Yet, France always has twice as many in I.C.U.”
I tried to answer that MN is a previous post. I think it’s because they report ICU admissions which would include both mechanically ventilated patients and those who need close observation and oxygen support but not ventilation. The UK figures given on the Gov site are for mechanically ventilated patients only. In UK the patients who require close monitoring and oxygen might be in a high dependency unit setting or sapecialised medical covid ward not ICU. I don’t know this for sure but it’s what I suspect is part of it. Also, in French hospital ICUs both ICU and CCU patients share the same space and the same nurses care for both. In the UK CCU is a separate ward with separate nurses. You’d have thought they would separate out those admitted for covid reasons though. I just don’t think the figures are comparing apples with apples in this particular instance. The numbers of deaths are comparable in both France and UK and it doesn’t make sense that the French have much higher covid ventilated patients.
@Pigeon English
To be clear, I started that thread “Climate, the science, politics, economics and anything else” to be about climate stuff. The “anything else” was meant to be anything else related to climate change/global warming that Science, politics, economics didn’t cover not simply any other topic. I apologise for the sloppy wording. Many of the replies to CM’s posts had off topic comments related to climate change etc so my intention was to make a home for those kinds of comments (I was under no delusions that it would work). I had hoped more would post but I’m not sure many read these posts in the discussion forums, which is a shame.
As Clark said, I just keep an eye on the “recent forum replies” on the right of the web page. I think it’s best to try to keep different threads on topic otherwise they become too diverse to follow. You could bookmark the link to the expanded discussion forum https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/forums/forum/discussion-forum/ where you can see which threads have the latest replies.
https://i.postimg.cc/wBtK1pwQ/UK-France-Covid.jpg
I stitched together an image of graphs over time comparing France and UK cases, deaths, ICU admissions and hospital admissions using those from ourworldindata.org. It’s not the best image as I had to squash things a bit to get it to fit in one web page for ease of comparison. A french ICU doc/nurse might be able to explain things to us if we had one.
I think not all those French ICU admissions are ventilated and that perhaps patients cared for in non ICU settings in UK might be cared for in ICU in a French setting. I’m not suggesting any difference in quality of care just that things are organised differently in different health care systems.
