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Me, 09:28 – “…but it’s an emergent phenomenon”
Unknown – “The devil’s greatest trick was convincing everyone that he didn’t exist.”
People blame other people and fail to notice the systems. Everyone’s looking for the “bad people” – the political left blames the political right and vice versa, people blame other countries and vice versa – “them”. We’ll never find the problems by looking for “them” because the problems are in patterns rather than people. And all of us are embedded in patterns.
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Bosnia,
anyway, you get the message, what used to be called Eastern Europe, has very, very high death rates with covid.Deaths are also now going up in the U.K. from covid as well as the numbers in Critical Care.
I wonder when the next “Plan” kicks in. Perhaps they ought to start the next plan, quite quickly?
If you look at the last week trend, some European countries are skyrocketing.
Czech Republic = + 108 %
Liechtenstein = + 105 %
Hungary = + 88 %
Poland = + 88 %
Slovenia = + 68 %
Belgium = + 68 %
Croatia = + 59%
Austria = + 49 %
Slovakia = + 45 %
Netherlands = + 41 %Germany = + 26 %
Rather alarming.
What I guess is happening is that most of the rest of Europe is catching up with the U.K. and Russia.
Is this mostly a new strain of covid, even more infectious than Delta, that is sweeping Europe?Currently, only the U.S.A. has more daily cases of covid than the U.K. but they have a population of a third of a billion.
Which is why x per million population is a better comparitive metric to use. Currently the UK has 690 new cases per million compared to the USA with 220/million. However the USA deaths/million is more than double the UK at about 5 deaths per million compared to UK slightly less than 2/million. Romania has over 20 deaths per million.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus, choose any metric and with each chart you can remove or add in countries you want to see/compare.“I wonder when the next “Plan” kicks in. Perhaps they ought to start the next plan, quite quickly?”
Asked on Friday about the possibility of a winter lockdown, Boris Johnson said there was “absolutely nothing to indicate that that is on the cards at all”.
Rishi Sunak, also said the vaccine rollout and booster jabs made a lockdown or “very significant economic restrictions” unlikely.That phrase “very significant economic restrictions” is telling in that it points to what considerations they are prioritising.
Delta variant AY.4.2 is probably more infectious than original Delta but it’s still at relatively low levels. My guess is that rising infection prevalence is partly immunity from early vaccinations now dropping, partly increasing complacency. Maybe autumnal weather encouraging people to be indoors more, but that could be checked by correlating infection prevalence in different areas against relevant weather data.
Just seen H.R. Clinton on Andrew Marr. She is promoting her new book.
She claimed that the U.K. is sleepwalking into a covid winter of large proportions. She claimed in New York, they are mandating employers to tell employees, that either, by a certain date, they must be double jabbed or they will be sacked. H.R.Clinton thinks this should also be taken up in the U.K. if we are to break the chain of transmission. I really dislike Clinton but in this she is probably right.
I think the care homes must now sack people who will not get vaccinated for flu and covid.
I think our new Health Secretary is going to order the same for the NHS.
In my view this should already have happened.
How to work on the five million, who still will not get vaccinated.
Covid Passports, no passport, no public transport, no entry to public buildings, no entry to entertainment places.
No going overseas.This will shock many of the refusniks into getting jabbed and may save us all from repeated Lock-Downs.
If you glance at the graph of Poland, after a long flat stretch they are now going up steeply, like most of the other Eastern European countries.
This nightmare, seems to be going on and on.The Spanish Flu of 1918, lasted just over two years. So we may have a way to go.
About five million people have been said to have died from covid.
The Spanish flu, could have been as many as one hundred million.Shocked, I tell you.
“Attendees at COP26 will not need a vaccine passport for the major summit, the Scottish Government has confirmed, amid calls for the scheme to be scrapped. The confirmation has sparked fury from hospitality groups and follows the troubled launch of the vaccine status app on Thursday.
Scottish Labour said the scheme would have led to “chaos” at the COP26 summit and would add “insult to injury” for businesses forced to abide by the certification rules.”
This is going to be a super-super-spreader-event.
So the dustbinmen will be on strike. The railways will be on strike.
No Scottish covid passport needed in the venue of twenty five thousand souls but outside of the venue, you will need one. What do they expect to happen in Glasgow, other than a fiasco?
It so obviously should have been put on hold. Time enough for the jamboree after the pandemic has played out, that might be years, yet.Why are they letting this go ahead when the country is currently being ravaged by the covid pandemic.
“Why are they letting this go ahead when the country is currently being ravaged by the covid pandemic.”
Political capital, both personal for BJ and for the UK as a whole, vanity and not letting down thousands of people who will have put much work into it. Also, there will have been a lot of impetus for it from various climate change concerned folk. I am inclined to agree with you MN that it ought to be postponed, and the real negotiations and horse trading can take place online as they probably will do anyway.
G7 or whatever it was in Cornwall; that certainly caused a spike in infections.
Climate science certainly doesn’t need COP26. It’s obvious what needs to be done; we’ve got two or three decades to get through while solar infrastructure is built, and limited fossil energy resources to do it with. All governments need to conserve resources for that vital task, or we’ll run out of fuel and overload the atmosphere before making our new energy system self sustaining.
– “Why are they letting this go ahead when the country is currently being ravaged by the covid pandemic.”
Why do they do any of the shit they do? Come on, tell me the last competent government action you witnessed. Anyone? I can think of only one; New Zealand closing its borders. So it’s not impossible, but God are they few and far between.
As michael has written elsewhere, our covid and climate threads keep converging and intertwining. I have therefore expounded upon my off-topic remark above (yesterday, 21:18):
– “All governments need to conserve resources for that vital task, or we’ll run out of fuel and overload the atmosphere before making our new energy system self sustaining.”
somewhere just below this link on the climate change thread.
Hi contributors, this from Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, who helped design the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine
“It is unfair to ‘bash’ Britain over its large Covid outbreak compared to Europe because it is testing up to ten times more people, an Oxford expert has said.
Official figures show the UK currently has the highest infection rate on the continent, except for a few countries in eastern Europe.”
So as most of had guessed, the U.K. is testing multiple cases more than our Western European partners, therefor we find many more mild cases of covid.
This is why many countries in Western Europe have a high number of people in serious condition but very, very, very few new daily cases are reported.
It is as we guessed, apples and oranges.How about (HIS)Astra Zeneca not performing well?
Just saying !
260 is not big problem as long as NHS can cope. As long as people are not in corridors gasping for air we are fine across Europe. It’s called collateral demmage. We hope that vaccines will prevent pilling up of bodies and the stream of dead will be nicely distributed over next 100 days and not spoil f-ing Xmas. After all everything has to do with Xmas.
If you look at the various data graphs MN do you agree with Sir Andrew or is he spinning?
Lab leak cover-up gaining evidence all the time now…
– “Notice how the diagram comparing the aa sequences of various viruses was truncated just before the furin cleavage site insertion (yellow line), even though this left a shorter line in the diagram. Why would you do that?”
https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1452246482359406601
– “It makes less and less sense that the WIV didn’t even mention the unique furin cleavage site insertion when they described SARS2 for the first time in their @Nature paper. They had a pipeline for looking for these cleavage sites in rare novel SARSrCoVs.”
Yes the UK does more testing, but the UK also has a lot of covid. Check the deaths per million population in the last seven days because deaths are independent of how much testing is being done:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table
In Western Europe the UK is highest at 14 per million, closely followed by Ireland at 13 and Isle of Man at 12. The next closest Western European countries are Belgium and Austria at 9.
I still think the most revealing thing is to look at variation over time. I just opened the Worldometer daily cases curves for a load of European countries. We should all by now be familiar with the shapes of covid waves; compare a country’s current figures against its earlier peaks. France, Spain and Sweden are in troughs. Belgium, Denmark and probably Italy are just on the rise. Germany and Austria have been rising for a while and are quite high.
The UK has abandoned all social restrictions and positively encourages infection with its schools policy. Around my way hardly anyone’s even taking precautions any more. What would be the point? It’ll get to you through the school kids anyway. Protection from our early vaccinations is also wearing off, so the UK’s on a high and rising plateau.
https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1452242694630170627
– “Let’s say someone discovers a unicorn for the first time. And instead of describing its horn, they describe every other minute difference between the unicorn and regular horses.
– Would you not be suspicious that something irregular was going on?”
Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance was enhancing MERS-CoV in Wuhan as well bat coronaviruses. MERS has a 35% fatality rate.
https://theintercept.com/2021/10/21/virus-mers-wuhan-experiments/
It looks like the world was lucky that it was only SARS-CoV-2 that escaped.
– “Changing the receptor binding site on MERS is sort of crazy,” wrote Jack Nunberg, a virologist and director of the Montana Biotechnology Center at the University of Montana, in an email to The Intercept after reviewing the documents. “Although these new chimeric viruses may retain properties of the MERS-CoV genetic backbone, engineering of a known human pathogen raises new and unpredictable risks beyond those posed by their previously reported studies using a non-pathogenic bat virus backbone.” The researchers’ intent, which some scientists consider integral to defining gain-of-function, remains unclear.
ET “If you look at the various data graphs MN do you agree with Sir Andrew or is he spinning?”
I would not like to say, I am not a professor. There is much acceleration in Eastern Europe in reported cases and deaths. Germany seem to be having great difficulties, they revised their figures for yesterday, from 20,000 to 20,069. We cannot be sure how reliably they are now reporting as a few days ago they were only claiming 3,000 – 4,000 / day.
So if could be a reassesment of recent figures or a previous underreporting of figures or they are really starting to skyrocket?“The U.N. health agency says Europe stood out as the only major region worldwide to report an increase in both coronavirus cases and deaths over the last week, with double-digit percentage increases in each.”
It does seem like Europe is in a very bad place. Russia is in a ghastly place, with their country shut down for a week, to aid containment. Some think it has got so bad because of vaccine refusal. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ukraine and Turkey are doing very badly.
Now even Germany is feeling the pain. So my keep asking, why is the U.K. doing so badly, while most of Europe barely has any covid, is starting to be turned on its head. As ET has said, different countries are at different stages in their curves.
As many European countries are starting to vaccinate children and give third doses to older adults, perhaps things will calm down. I think this is going to run and run, we will be encouraged to have booster each year, for years to come.“BERLIN, Oct 28 (Reuters) – Germany’s coronavirus caseload took its biggest jump in two weeks on Thursday, with over 28,000 new infections, the Robert Koch Institute said, adding heft to worries about restrictions this winter.”
“The number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) has risen 15% within a week, the head of the German Hospital Federation (DKG), Gerald Gass, told the Redaktionsnetwork Deutschland media group.
If the trend continues, he said, there could be 3,000 cases in the ICU in two weeks.”Sorry, I wrote the wrong covid case number for Germany. October 28, 2021 at 04:56
If you do not count Spain or France, everything for Europe, East of France is going mental.
I wonder if this is because Delta is now the main strain, in Eastern Europe, as we were told it is a lot more transmissible. I have not been to Germany for thirty five years, then they all seemed to follow all the rules, exactly, I would not know, if that is still the case.
