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This website is extremely important in keeping an eye of what is going on globally with Covid-19. It is a dashboard that shows the number of cases worldwide, the number of deaths and also has the facilities to show this in individual countries. It also shows through a bar chart daily increase in cases. This can be shown by pressing a tab towards the bottom right hand side labelled ‘Daily Increases’. If you do this you can see a number of patterns. Pattern one, unabated daily exponential increase and this can be seen in the US figures which is now heading towards 200,000. Exponential increase, with a doubling time of about 5 days, means that in the US if this trend continues there will be a one and a half million cases in about 20 days, unless the rate slows down due to the measures taken, which usually take two to three weeks. By clicking on each country on the left hand panel, you can see this rate in each country. Few countries are showing this exponential increase perhaps to a lesser extent, but this may also be a function of how late infection started in these countries. Perhaps the only other country showing this is Turkey.
The next pattern is that of either slower increase in cases or a levelling out of increase. This pattern is shown by UK, Iran and perhaps Canada.
The next pattern is that there is a slow decline of cases. The figures are not always neat, so that you may get a spike in the trend, but the important thing to look at is the overall trend over a period of 3-4 days and this is important because it shows that measures are working. Countries showing this pattern include, Germany, Austria, Belgium Italy and Spain (with the eye of faith) and other European countries.
The next pattern shows the efficiency of strict application of isolation measures, including quarantine of either whole towns, or of individuals with mild disease. This pattern is shown by China and South Korea.
So really we have models to work on and examples to follow and ways to monitor.I would not give too much importance to these figures. I think Iran has adopted, despite sanctions, a wider policy of testing and therefore will include more milder cases as a denominator. Because the UK policy is only to test severe cases, this is bound to increase the current recorded fatality rates. Maybe this would be the only incentive of the Tory government to introduce wider testing so that there figures are not that bad?
The coincidence of A and B does not mean that A is responsible for B, unless of course there is evidence, So far the evidence from what I posted earlier is nil and there are good reasons to say so.
After all why did the Chines start this institute, which money countries have, including several in the US? The supposed reason is to do research on dangerous pathogens so that we are prepared to fight these pathogens. China has had to deal with SARS in 2003 and also with the swine flu virus and that is why these facilities were developed. As testified by the WHO this facilities comply rigidly with safety standards.
Of course I am not saying that some countries have been know to play around with the idea of using biological weapons and in fact some of these countries still possess chemical weapons. The attempt to frame China with this is a US ploy to divert from the real issues of Covid-19. To engage and promote these theories only helps the US warmongers’ agenda.There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
These were the sage words of an otherwise discredited mass murderer during the reign of the Bush regime.
The current problem alerts us to things which we must keep in mind when dealing with the Covid-19 crisis.We know that the Covid-19 crisis is real, we know now quite a lot about the virus and the way it behaves and we now have examples of how to, at least partially, effectively deal with it with the examples of China and South Korea and others.
We know that we do not know everything about the virus, importantly we do not know how many people are mildly infected and do not exhibit any symptoms when exposed to the virus. There are also many other details such as how infections are transmitted, although we have good ideas of some of the mechanisms. We also do not know why some people die and others get such mild diseases, although a lot of this seems to be age and co-morbidity related. We also do not know how to treat this or even whether supportive treatment with ventilators is of much use, as there is such a high mortality amongst those requiring ventilation. At this point we should therefore focus very much at preventing people to get to this stage rather than to advocate a kneejerk response of high cost sourcing more ventilators which may be of dubious efficiency. We also do not know whether immunity to this virus is long lasting, and we do not know whether there will be a successful vaccine yet.
The unknown unknowns: and here we move onto a new territory much advocated by some who like to find an underlying motive behind any disasters. Of course, there is such a thing as a deep state, and of course the deep state operates to exploit disasters for their purposes as shown by Naomi Klein’s famous book. For anyone in doubt, the crash of 2007 and the way it was handled, is ample proof of how the deep state reacted by rewarding the perpetrators of the crash, instead of reigning them in. They nationalised the liabilities but privatised the profits without conditions. This bit of knowledge is fraught with difficulties because not only are some of these unknown unknowns, but they are also unknowable unknowns. Theories that the virus was released by either the US or China are under this category, and theories that capitalists have crashed their own system to change the world belong to this category.I saw a mention on BCG vaccine, that in 2018 someone researched its positive influence on Yellow Fever decease, also a viral pathogen
How stupid would have to be for this to carry on as normal?
Some two million people were expected to travel to Mecca and Medina this July and August for the annual gathering.
Muslims who are physically able must undertake the Hajj once in a lifetime.
Hajj Minister Mohammed Banten said the kingdom was concerned about the safety of pilgrims and urged people to “wait before concluding contracts”.
So they are not actually officially putting a stop to it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52118803They should have stopped it, Michael. Regardless of freedoms and religious believes.
That’s what happened in my country:
President declared paid leave, days-off for a week for the people to stay at home. What have the people done? Many crowded building supply supermarkets planning to spend the week repairing their houses. Many decided it’s another holidays and moved for picnic en mass. My region is warm resort region near the Black See, the roads were crowded with cars from all the country. Before the week we had 2 cases in my region, and after the week we had 17!Our governor declared quarantine. We stay at home, we cannot drive, city transport is restricted to 3 hours in the morning and 3 hours in the evening, they wash the public places with desinfectants, no cars are allowed to enter into the city, post offices don’t work, only pharmacy and food stores are open. My doctor phoned yesterday and cancelled tests and visit sheduled for the end of April!
Everyone understands that March 31-April 5 is not enough, the quarantine will be prolonged of course. People like me, who are self-employed just don’t know how hard it may hurt my business and what impact will it produce on our income and our lives.
Ordinary people whom I talked to – they all say quarantine must be announced earlier. We would have stopped the virus by the current moment. Also, quarantine is ‘force-major’ and allows legally ask the bank to postpone loan payments. Most have loans like business, mortgage, general consumer loans etc.
Without decisive measures, we will have more cases, more deaths; we will just stretch the lockdown for long, and then we will be restoring normal life, for long.
The longer the delays to test, quarantine and isolate, the longer it will take to suppress the virus. That is why most governements should have acted sooner and more decisively.
Now France has more people infected with Covid-19 than does China.
The amount of people who have apparently, so far died from it/with it in France, is double that of China.There are two websites that have good discussions about Covid-19. One is Squonk and the other is Moon of Alabama. The discussions are often illuminating.
SA – I have been to the Moon of Alabama site before when the Skripal false Flag was big news; there are some very level headed people posting on that Blog. The other one is new to me so I will check it out. I wanted to respond to a comment you made over on the Elections Aftermath Forum regarding the wearing of face masks. I used to work at Jackson Memorial in Miami in the second busiest ED in the States. We were worried about the spread of TB and the need to protect ourselves and our patients from infection; this informs my current strategy on wearing masks.
I wrote “SA – Face Masks worn by infected people, or those suspected of being infected, reduce the distance infectious droplets can be projected by a sneeze or cough. A massive grey area complicating this issue is that people who are entirely symptom free may still be able to infect others. This is true of the period before they start to experience symptoms and potentially for as long as two weeks beyond the point they feel well again. This is why the WHO have recommended a longer isolation period than this arrogantly stubborn Tory Government, who abruptly cut the total isolation period down to just seven days! This misguided variance suggests that either the PM is determined to follow poor advice or they are still relying on Herd Immunity, but at a more controlled pace.
While a blanket assumption that all of us are potentially infected would require us all to wear masks, the reality is there are barely enough to maintain regular supplies for our Medical staff and care givers who must take priority. For those who are confident that they have not had any opportunity to become infected, but need to venture out to shop, face masks do help to limit the infection risk we all take by touching our face without thinking after picked up germs from something we have made contact with. The recommendations for hand washing and using hand sanitizer will combat infection caused by this impulse
Even the most efficient cleaning crews cannot keep pace with the need to constantly sanitize the things we touch so carry your own supply of antimicrobial wipes to sanitize the rail, the door handle, call buttons, keypads etc. as this will offer another layer of protection. This potential for infection through contact with frequently touched surfaces is why the vague term “Social Distancing” is so inadequate. A far more comprehensive and easily understandable instruction that even a small child can grasp would be: “Avoid people and the things that people touch!”
On an earlier post I explained that: “You might avoid contracting the virus from an infected person by keeping a safe distance apart, but then pick up the bug from the door handle they grabbed just before you touched it yourself. We must become a lot more conscious of the things that we all come in direct contact with so frequently every day as the virus will survive on hard surfaces for up to 72hours. Carry a supply of antimicrobial wipes with you in a Ziploc bag and wipe the door handle, the ATM keypad, the access or lift button, before you touch it. This is just one more line of defence to include in your armoury.”
I wanted to come up with an acceptable alternative for increased protection that would not impinge of critical supplies that must be reserved for our besieged Hospital and Care staff who are being let down so badly by this Tory Government’s shambolic supply chain deficiencies.
In Asian countries you will often see people wearing masks on the street, even when there is no pandemic threat, that necessity is often driven by city air pollution and they maintain steady production to meet regular demand which will now have been stepped up considerably.
How can you maximize your own protection without depleting our critical supplies for Hospital and care staff? This is my own personal strategy, which is useful now and in some cases worth considering in a Covid free future. I have ordered a couple of reusable masks that will not impinge on any local supplies for our besieged Hospital or care staff. It is also quite simple to make your own washable fabric masks and there are already a number of YouTube instruction videos demonstrating how to do this.
Reusable cloth face masks are mostly worn by cyclists with an inserted disposable charcoal filter added to reduce their exposure to pollution in city traffic. These masks are also highly recommended for children walking to school along busy city roads, especially if they are asthmatic. What, your kids don’t want to look like they are extras on some freakish movie set? But wait there’s more…
I then bought a pack of eight thin stretchy micropore tubes that fit over your head and can function as a scarf, bandanna or be pulled up to cover the lower half of your face. These multicoloured tubes have gained acceptance among skateboarders, cyclists and other young people exploring outdoor pursuits.The stretchy fabric used to make these tubes will help to hold any mask more securely onto your face reducing the gaps that often make a poorly fitting mask such an ineffective form of protection. They are not only available in a wide range of bright solid colours and brilliant designs; they are also sold with a variety of different animal and other kid friendly formats. This can turn the need for protection into a fashion accessory and make wearing a mask on the walk to school far more acceptable and potentially even fun for children of all ages. All these items are available for order online although some include several weeks shipping time, so shop around…
Hey, what else do you have to do while in seclusion? Stay Safe!
Two articles from Declassified UK discuss some aspects of the corona virus epidemic and some of the hypocricy shown. Whilst some have criticised the wet market in Wuhan, sometimes with good reason, as both liable to spread infection, and also in the eyes of some for the lack of animal wellfare, the UK government has been investing in the business opportunities of wet markets.
Exclusive: Before coronavirus, UK government promoted ‘business opportunities’ in China’s wet marketsDocuments seen by Declassified UK show Whitehall has regarded China’s wet markets and “food safety scandals” as an “opportunity” for UK exports since 2013
Theresa May and trade secretary Liam Fox visited Wuhan in 2018 with the largest ever UK business delegation, striking trade deals with China worth £10-billion and successfully lobbying Beijing to lower its meat safety standards to allow UK exports.
UK successfully lobbied China to reverse its ban on some live seafood imports despite Beijing’s concern over toxins in British crabs, with Liam Fox securing exports of live langoustines
Revelation comes after it emerges a live shrimp seller at Wuhan wet market was among the first coronavirus patientsThe second article calls out how the establishment constantly downplayed the seriousness of the epidemic until it was too late.
Coronavirus fake news: How the British government misled the public for weeks
By Phil Miller• 30 March 2020
The UK authorities told the public at least eight times from January to March that coronavirus posed a “very low” or “low” risk, research by Declassified UK has found.
Cabinet ministers have also assured the public on at least 16 occasions that the UK health service was “well prepared” to cope with coronavirus — even as it has become clear that adequate protective equipment for health workers, as well as ventilators for those being treated, are lacking.This one is even more worrying:
British security services have ignored global health pandemics — the UK’s biggest threatBritish security services have ignored global health pandemics — the UK’s biggest threat. British security services have ignored global health pandemics — the UK’s biggest threat. Systematic planning or intelligence gathering around health crises does not appear to take place in any UK security agency, whose roles are proclaimed to be to keep the country safe. This is despite at least 18,000 people working for MI5, MI6, Defence Intelligence and GCHQ, which have a combined budget of over £3bn.These are actually three and there is more.
The UK will spend over £350bn on extravagant military projects while failing to ensure national health securityAnd this one
Despite lockdown, the UK military still flies, risking the spread of coronavirusDespite lockdown, the UK military still flies, risking the spread of coronavirusThere is so much going on in this fast-moving situation it is difficult to keep up. We are in this very messy situation, much worse than we should be in because of decisions taken in January which meant that Britain was slow in responding to the forthcoming crisis. This was due to a flawed policy of relying on herd immunity in a situation, which to this day, we still do not understand how immunity to this virus works, we can’t even develop a reliable test to check this immunity but it had already informed the government’s decisions in January to “Take it on the chin”. But the decisions were not only ill informed there was even complacency when the decisions were half-heartedly changed to start social isolation. To this day there are gaps in the policy. But then complacency turned into negligence as it became apparent that there were no proper contingency plans for this epidemic, with absence of even basic needs such as the provision of appropriate PPE for front line staff. This went on for a couple of weeks after the start of the steep rise in the number of cases. Then there was this lack of planning and seeing through what social isolation means and how to make it more effective. As shoppers started panic buying, supermarkets were inundated with shoppers before appropriate planning to prevent crowding in supermarkets took place in the second and third weeks of March. In fact it seems that the supermarkets have better ideas about supplying the nation with food and prioritizing, than the government.
Widespread testing, something that should have been started from the outset, is still a bridge too far.
So just a few developments to consider:
“Coronavirus: UK will have Europe’s worst death toll, says study”
World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak. The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
So, this model is much worse than the Imperial College model and quite clearly states that this predicted worst outcome in Europe is due to the delay in implementing social distancing because of early reliance on herd immunity. They do say that the model is dynamic and needs to be revised, and we can only hope that this is revised downwards for the sake of the nation.
The second main problem is the developing power and decision-making vacuum. It has been discussed by some that we now have effectively a new PM in the form of Dominic Rabb. It has been commented that his performance has been less than ideal, and he appears to be ill informed and hesitant. It also underlines something very important that unfortunately was started by Margaret Thatcher but strengthened by Blair and that is the major dilution of the principle of collective government. The PM has now presidential powers, and this is compounded by the manufactured ’landslide’ the Tories had in the last elections partly because of possible vote rigging, MSM deceit, faulty FPTP system and a divided opposition. So, a party that won 43.6% of the votes has an overwhelming number of parliamentary seats. Even so, parliament has been disbanded, apparently indefinitely. But more importantly the win was translated to a personal mandate and King Boris was crowned in all but name, being able to ask Lizzie to sign any legislation without the least scrutiny. There is a fault at the heart of such a system that will require an urgent revision of our electoral system when this crisis has blown over. Another point to note was that in the leadership elections for the Tory Party, Dominic Raab was not even one of the top 5 contenders left in the race, but now he rules supreme.
“The UK government’s chief medical officer has conceded that Germany “got ahead” in testing people for Covid-19 and said the UK needed to learn from that.” So, this is an admission that we were slow on the uptake. But still Vallance, the scientific face of the government’s ‘herd immunity’ policy seems to be unrepentant.
“Sir Patrick Vallance, gave a more circumspect reply, saying: “The German curve looks as though it’s lower at the moment, and that is important, and I don’t have a clear answer to exactly what is the reason for that.”When in doubt, bury your head in the sand.
Yesterday France became the third E.U. state to record more than 10,000 deaths from Covid-19.
French state have now banned exercise in daylight.Today the U.K. became the fastest growing covid-19 case, country in Europe, a 10% increase in diagnosis, in one day.
Are there different interpretations of what recovered means?
In the U.K. for ten days the recovered from covid-19 stuck at 135
Now it has jumped to 344.How can you have a single mortality rate?
If you are old with several other health complications, you have less than a fifty percent chance of hanging on.
However if you are relatively healthy and relatively young, you have a slim chance of death from covid-19So is the best way of imagining mortality a sliding scale?
Please check out this informative article with demonstration video posted on the Skwawkbox: “The ICU Breathing Exercises that might just save your life.” Watching the video brought back memories of the first time I saw a Nurse demonstrate this important routine to a patient in the busy Surgical ER at Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami. Following a life threatening bout of whooping cough as a child I developed a habit of cautious breathing known as “Stenting.” A visit to high places will make you more aware of your lung capacity, as I discovered to my detriment on a trip to La Paz, Bolivia. However, many people remain entirely unaware of their dysfunctional breathing patterns until it compromises their survival during severe illness.
I have continued a lifelong habit of shallow breathing that I now fear might put me at increased risk of complications if I were to contract Covid 19. By the beginning of March I was already limiting my excursions out, trips to the cinema, dining out and very reluctantly I had to put my beloved Silversmithing class on hold. When I did venture out for necessary shopping I tried to keep my distance and I carried a pack of antimicrobial wipes to fastidiously wipe down anything I was about to touch following my rule of: “Avoid people and the things that people touch.” As I have said before this is a simple instruction even a small child could learn.
This all well before the Tory Government’s belated U-turn to superficially deviate away from their disastrous “Herd Immunity” strategy by advocating Social Distancing. Even this last ditch reversal a thoroughly misleading instruction; does Social Distancing mean don’t call mum? There is no acknowledgement of the fact that hand washing requires ready access to sinks and sanitizer gel is unavailable in stores, plus it does not counter the obvious risk of infection all of the objects we repeatedly touch that cannot possibly be kept virus free all of the time by cleaning staff. We all need to take added personal responsibility to wipe down the door handle, the lift button, the ATM keypad etc before we risk contaminating our hands in the first place.
There is gathering evidence that this Tory Government has not abandoned their dangerous “Herd Immunity” policy. There are still no checks at airports or other points of entry; care homes are being systematically ignored with Covid patients not admitted to Hospital or sent back to infect other vulnerable residents with poor provision of PPE for low paid staff. The regular delivery of PPE kit, beyond inadequate is now outrageously criticized by Mat Hancock as being squandered by overstressed staff in his attempt to divert blame. As Craig Murray also noted the Covid 19 deaths of NHS staff appear to be predominantly among those of overseas decent, but the Government is not even honest with the numbers claiming only 19 deaths when there have been 31 so far.
The tedious daily Tory propaganda broadcast, that masquerade as an official “press briefing,” never announce the number of new tests performed in our progress towards that mythical 100,000 tests a day. To obtain this figure one is expected to not bother noting the total number of tests done so far to compare with the total announced the next day; that way the Tories can keep their gross failure under wraps. Although occasionally the press ask a really telling question this format allows this Tory Government off the hook, minimizing public scrutiny while blasting out party political spin. We need MPs to reconvene parliament in order to force the Tory Government to face genuine accountability until we can secure a thorough investigation of the Covert 2019 Rigged Election and remove them from office.
These ‘crude’ mortality rates are meaningless unless used in context. So what we are seeing is a case mortality rate which means that it is a mortality in those who have been ill enough to be admitted to hospital and be tested. There are two sources of error, one is that we do not have a denominator because of limited testing and the second one, working in the opposite direction is that death in the community and in nursing homes are not being recorded as due to Covid-19 as they are not being tested.
You can also have an age related mortality rate, and this has been estimated as about 15% in the over eighties and about 10% in the over 70s, but again these are age related case mortality rates.
What is however very telling is that overall mortality in Germany has been much less than Italy, Spain, France and U.K. the cause for this is not yet clear.What is recovered?
I think there might be at least two types of recovered.
Type One as in Boris Johnson, you go in to hospital as a suspect covid-19 person, they do a test, you are positive, they keep you in for a few days as long as you do not go down hill they let you go, after some mild interventions.
Type Two as in, you are put in an induced coma and connected to a ventilator, half the people will die, the other half are taken off the ventilator put in a bed with an oxygen mask but these people with suffer ongoing troubles, such that they may never walk or work again.A sailor has died with covid-19,
he was serving on the stricken American aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt.
Recently the captain of this vessel was sacked by Trump for writing an open letter, saying they needed help.
Now 500 crew are thought to have contracted the virus.
One wonders what would happen if a Nuclear powered submarine gets this problem?The US military is looking hard at rumors the coronavirus came from a laboratory in Wuhan, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters, but so far evidence is inconclusive and points to it emerging naturally.
Johnson and his cronies have throughout maintained that they are guided by the science. This article by a professor of Public Health in Imperial contradicts this
“We scientists said lock down. But UK politicians refused to listen “Dr Helen Ward wrote
“In mid-February a colleague mentioned that for the first time in his life he was more concerned than his mother, who had been relatively blase about the risks of Covid-19. It felt odd for him to be telling her to take care. We are both professors in a department of infectious disease epidemiology, and we were worried.
Two months on, that anxiety has not gone, although it’s also been joined by a sense of sadness. It’s now clear that so many people have died, and so many more are desperately ill, simply because our politicians refused to listen to and act on advice. Scientists like us said lock down earlier; we said test, trace, isolate. But they decided they knew better.”
She then goes on to state what the commonsense and advise from WHO should have been followed which is standard with any epidemic:
So where to now? Once again, public health experience, including modelling, leads to some very clear recommendations. “First, find cases in the community as well as hospitals and care homes; isolate them, and trace their contacts using a combination of local public health teams and digital tools.
Second, know your epidemic. Track the epidemic nationally and locally using NHS, public health and digital surveillance to see where cases are continuing to spread. This will be essential so that we can start to lift the lockdown while shielding the population from hotspots of transmission. Build community resilience by providing local support for vulnerable people affected by the virus and the negative impact of the control measures.
Third, ensure transmission is suppressed in hospitals, care homes and workplaces through the right protective equipment, testing, distancing and hygiene. Investigate the differential effects on black and minority ethnic groups, and provide appropriate protection.
Fourth, ensure that the most vulnerable, socially and medically, are fully protected through simple access to a basic income, rights for migrants, and safety for those affected by domestic violence”.And more scientists coming up to criticise the government’s slow approach
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/15/boris-johnson-reacted-too-slowly-to-covid-19-says-ex-scientific-adviser
too late’. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA“Boris Johnson and his advisers have been accused of responding too slowly to the coronavirus outbreak by a former chief scientific adviser, who expressed shock that the Cheltenham festival and other big events were allowed to go ahead in mid-March.
Prof Sir David King said he was “really saddened by the predicament we are in” and that the UK “didn’t respond so much sooner once this epidemic broke out in China”.
King, who was adviser from 2000 to 2007, said it appeared that there was a plateau in new infections but that the failure to record deaths outside hospitals means “we really haven’t a clue where we are” and comparisons with other countries were “beginning to look really awful”.“That, of course, is what has happened – and it seems that we were unprepared and we didn’t take action,” he said. Imagine, 16 March, having a horse race go on with a massive crowd at Cheltenham. We didn’t manage this until too late and every day’s delay has resulted in further deaths in the United Kingdom.”
King said austerity under the coalition government had led to cuts to the risk management programmes, which had made the UK unprepared for pandemics.
“For me, this is very upsetting because we had set this preparation process in place, as I say, back in 2006,” he said, arguing that this had cost lives.
King said the government needed to “massively step up measures” including mass testing, which the current chief scientific advisers and medical advisers had suggested until recent days was not practical.
“Until we get testing done on a very much wider scale, we’re not going to begin to manage this,” he said. “If we go around the world and see where there has been better behaviour, it isn’t only in the wealthy countries.Is there a single case in the U.K. of a patient being induced in to a coma and put on a breathing maching, recovering and going home?
