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I would like to start a new topic on the evolving situation in the Middle East. There are many new developments as well as the well established ones. These have been overshadowed by other events including the all consuming Brexit and of course the many Trumpgates.
The old issues that are ongoing include:
Syria
Libya
Iran
Yemen
Afghanistan
New ones of significance include
‘Successful’ peaceful revolution in Sudan
Tunisian elections
Algerian demonstrations
Iraq demonstrations
Lebanon demonstrations.
Turkish invasion of Northern Syria.Of course all of these are huge topics and any one of them could occupy pages of references and cross references but maybe highlights of the most important, especially ones neglected in MSM would be useful.
SA, thank you for starting this thread. I have little to add, but I hope it becomes popular and informative – so I suggest you draw attention to it and link to it from Craig’s comments sections, when appropriate.
Embedding – warning to all commenters:
The WTC7 thread became unusable due to the forum software embedding content from linked websites, especially YouTube videos. Please don’t post naked URLs – use the HTML ‘a’ tag instead (manually, or by using the ‘link’ button above the comment form), to turn some word or phrase into a link.
The forums have no pagination; they just get longer and longer. If naked URLs are posted, so much external content gets embedded that the page demands excessive memory (over a gigabyte) and may never complete loading.
Thanks Clark for the tip and comment. I shall try my best. This post attempts to show a rough timeline for the fast moving events. Apologies for the many links from the Guardian but this is just to establish the timeline and not endorse their point of view or comments.
Developing events in north Syria
Since the declarations of Trump to withdraw US troops from North Syria in coordination with Turkey to allow them to take over a safe buffer zone on the whole length of the Turkish Syrian borders and to supposedly facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey to this safe zone, many maneuvers and counter maneuvers have been carried out by both sides. It is difficult to know whether this policy was truly off the hoof or whether it had been carefully planned between at least Turkey and US beforehand and then made to appear off the hoof. The overall policy appears to have been designed to remove the Kurds who have been partly instrumental in defeating Da’esh in that part of Syria with the help of the US from the border area with Turkey, as Turkey perceived this, and an independent Rojava, as a future threat. In addition, the YPG, essentially allied to the PKK which is classified as a terrorist organization by US and Turkey and EU, have been whitewashed and relabeled as the SDF to be utilized for this task of getting rid of Da’esh.22 August 2019
Turkey and US agree joint Safe Zone on Northern SyriaSeptember 30th
Erdogan reveals, in speech to UNGA, ‘Safe Zone’ Plan to rehome up to 3 million Syrian refuges from Turkey to Syria.7th October: Trump announces withdrawal of US forces from Northern Syria, giving green light for Turkey to start occupying northern Syria
9th October: Turkish offensive begins with shelling and aerial bombing on Ras al Ayn
14th October:
Agreement between SG and YPG/SDF that Syrian troops will protect key cities and border posts and YPG retreat from these areas, brokered by Russia.17th October. 5 day ceasefire deal between Turkey and US to allow YPG withdrawal from ‘Safe zone’
22nd October 2019
Meeting between Putin and Erdogan in Sochi in which it is agreed that the situation on the ground will be frozen with current Turkish occupation in Ras al Ayn and…, whilst Russia will police rest of the borders between Turkey and Northern Syria elsewhere. Syrian forces also to occupy some towns and border areas. Turkish offensive officially halted.Its all about the Oil Stupid:
25th October. US to send troops and mechanised division to protect Syrian oil fieldsBreaking news
It seems that the US forces may have successfully assassinated or caused the death of Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi:
This is of course also widely reported by the MSM including the Guardian but the first link is very important for its analysis. This is from SANA the official Syrian Governement channel.
Washington, SANA- A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the American Newsweek Magazine that the US military has conducted a special operations raid on Saturday targeting Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of Daesh (ISIS) terrorist organization, without confirming if the operation was successful.
The official said that the operation was conducted in Idleb province, northwest of Syria, by US Special Forces after receiving certain intelligence information.
This declaration bring to the minds the operation through which the US administration killed leader of al-Qaeda terrorist organization Osama Bin Laden who had been used by the US in Afghanistan, and when his mission finished, the US killed him burying the secrets of his relation with Washington with him.
In a relevant context, Reuters Agency said that the White House Spokesman Hogan Gidley declared lately on Sunday that Donald Trump planned to make a “major statement” at the White House on 09:00 am.
The US TV networks of (CNN) and (ABC) said earlier this morning that al-Baghdadi is more likely to be killed in a US raid in Idleb area.
The CNN mentioned that the US army is conducting tests to verify the death of al-Baghdadi officially, while one of the US media outlets quoted several governmental sources as saying that al-Baghdadi might have killed himself with a suicide vest after the US Special Forces attacked him.
Whether al-Baghdadi was killed in Idleb City or not raises a big question about the bodies and the states which have backed and protected him over all the past period, on top the Turkish regime which defends the terrorist groups in Idleb in all possible ways and which has been trying to protect them throughout the past years.
Many media outlets have mentioned that the previous US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has admitted in her memoirs that a number of Western states including the US are the responsible ones for establishing and funding Daesh (ISIS) terrorist organization and supplying it with weapons and different forms of support.
In case the story of killing al-Baghdadi is confirmed, many questions will be also raised on the goal of the operation, particularly after it has become known in many of the parts of the terrorist war on Syria, the role of the US in supporting the terrorist organizations, on top Daesh in the face of the Syrian Arab Army.
The killing of al-Baghdadi at the hands of the US forces doesn’t mean that the US hasn’t participated in creating terrorist organizations to undermine the stability of some states or in supporting terrorism in Syria.
Ruaa al-JazaeriThe interest here is that it implies that IS has now outlived its usefulness for US purposes which would also mean less reliance on Kurds and other proxies.
The other interesting aspect of this is where he was supposedly killed: in northern Idlib just next to the Turkish border a village called BarishaThis really is not surprising but of course some commentators seem to find it surprising.
– “The overall policy appears to have been designed to remove the Kurds…”
Yes. While in London with XR a friend and I joined the pro-Rojava protest. It was very well attended.
– “…the YPG, essentially allied to the PKK which is classified as a terrorist organization by US and Turkey and EU, have been whitewashed and relabeled as the SDF to be utilized for this task of getting rid of Da’esh”
Yes; this is a familiar pattern. The term “terrorist” is entirely fluid; if some relatively informal fighting group called party A does something that is useful to national power party B, party B call them “freedom fighters” or “rebels”, but when party A does something contrary, party B call them “terrorists”. The US is the worst offender, but other states aren’t above such behaviour.
– “This declaration bring to the minds the operation through which the US administration killed leader of al-Qaeda terrorist organization Osama Bin Laden who had been used by the US in Afghanistan, and when his mission finished, the US killed him burying the secrets of his relation with Washington with him.”
This too is a pattern; cooperation and exploitation followed by betrayal. If only people would learn from history, but ironically, the resentment it provokes just inspires further martyrs.
The Russian Defence Ministry disputes that al-Baghdadi has been killed at all; Ben posted this link at squonk.tk:
– “Russia: Trump’s Baghdadi Victory Lap Is Nothing But ‘Propaganda’
– The Russian Defense Ministry also disputed claims that Russia provided access to U.S. air units entering airspace it controls.
SA, October 27, 10:08 – “It’s all about oil…”
I recommend the following as background to the long-standing conflict in the Middle East:
Karl Lam: The Role of the West in the Middle East Conflict
– “An important part of this analysis is that the West is backing both the Israeli and Arab elites, and that the West’s overriding economic interest is in conflict, not peace. However, it has been important to maintain the illusion of a Peace Process.”
Two lines of questions are raised by these recent events. The one as pointed out by Clark above is that Russia is skeptical that this has actually taken place.
“Meanwhile, the Russian military has actually rejected Trump’s claim. Russia’s top military brass does not have reliable information on another operation to eliminate al-Baghdadi, the defense ministry’s spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. He pointed out that ‘yet another’ al-Baghdadi death had no impact on the situation in Syria since the Syrian army, supported by the Russian Aerospace Force, had defeated IS.
And also highlighted that even if true, this had only symbolic significance
Senior Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Boris Dolgov, in turn, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the IS leader’s death did not really matter to the group’s future. “Actually, it doesn’t exist anymore. As a military and political organization, the Islamic State has been destroyed both in Syria and Iraq. The units and sleeper cells that still remain don’t pose a threat as they are unlikely to revive IS. The killing of al-Baghdadi is more important as a symbol indicating the group’s defeat,” Dolgov explained.The other questions being asked is what the hell was Baghdadi doing in Idlib which is infested with his arch enemies of Al Nusra Front
Another take is that this was a Turkish US collaboration to oil the deal for Turkey to invade Syria.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed a few kilometers away from Turkish border, in Turkish-influenced Idlib. Turkey was ISIS rat line for foreign jihadists for years.
Turkey might have traded Baghdadi to the US in exchange for being given the green light to attack northeast Syria.“The WTC7 thread became unusable due to the forum software embedding content from linked websites, especially YouTube videos. ”
Yes, Clark. And knowing that, you kept adding more and more naked URLs – YouTube clips, irrelevant music clips – till the thread became unusable. Different tactics, same result … for the 2nd time, Clark stops discussion about 9/11 on Craig’s blog.
Why do you do this? Presumably because nobody agrees with your crazy theory about what happened that day.
Beware disagreeing with Clark, SAClark
Unfortunately this is over simplistic and although it may be useful for novices in the field, it starts from about 5 years ago in a conflict and conspiracy that has been taking place for over 100 years. For me it is deflection.The biggest root cause of this current conflict lies neither with Israel, nor Palestinians, nor any dispute between them. The conflict was generated and is maintained by powerful economic actors, originally in the British Empire, but now mainly in the USA.
This ignores the long history of the conflict between the end of the first WW and the Nakba in 1948. The reason for the establishment of the settler state was for colonisation purposes by people whom we can relate to.
Here are some quotes of David Bengurion, the first prime minister of Israel.Everybody sees a difficulty in the question of relations between Arabs and Jews. But not everybody sees that there is no solution to this question. No solution! There is a gulf, and nothing can bridge it… We, as a nation, want this country to be ours; the Arabs, as a nation, want this country to be theirs.
“A partial Jewish State is not the end, but only the beginning. … I am certain that we well not be prevented from settling in the other parts of the country, either by mutual agreements with our Arab neighbors or by some other means. . . [If the Arabs refuse] we shall have to speak to them in another language. But we shall only have another language if we have a state.”
Also the author you quote says the following:
The West supplies Israel with enough arms and money to keep it from being defeated, but never enough to keep it safe. Of course no amount of weapons can ever keep you safe; if anything it’s the opposite – but then this is about manipulating fear, not logic.
Again this ignores how the west has closed its eyes whilst Israel developed atomic weapons whilst fighting very hard to prevent say Iran from developing one. This in itself is a very strong indication of the nonsense argument of those who support a nuclear deterrent, because for a deterrent to be a deterrent, it has to be possessed by both sides, otherwise it is a blackmail tool and a WMD, no more no less.
I’ve always thought it took 48 hours to test DNA but SHRUMP! was caterwauling 12 hours after Baghdadi exploded his carcass.
Can we expect other doubles to appear?
OPCW Losing Credibility As Even More Revelations Surface On Douma
The journalist Jonathan Steele in the BBC world service
Jonathan Steele: “I was in Brussels last week … I attended a briefing by a whistleblower from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He was one of the inspectors who was sent out to Douma in Syria in April last year to check into the allegations by the rebels that Syrian aeroplanes had dropped two canisters of chlorine gas, killing up to 43 people. He claims he was in charge of picking up the samples in the affected areas, and in neutral areas, to check whether there were chlorine derivatives there …
Paul Henley: And?
JS: … and he found that there was no difference. So it rather suggested there was no chemical gas attack, because in the buildings where the people allegedly died there was no extra chlorinated organic chemicals than in the normal streets elsewhere. And I put this to the OPCW for comment, and they haven’t yet replied. But it rather suggests that a lot of this was propaganda…
PH: Propaganda led by?
JS: … led by the rebel side to try and bring in American planes, which in fact did happen. American, British and French planes bombed Damascus a few days after these reports. And actually this is the second whistle blower to come forward. A few months ago there was a leaked report by the person who looked into the ballistics, as to whether these cylinders had been dropped by planes, looking at the damage of the building and the damage on the side of the cylinders. And he decided, concluded, that the higher probability was that these cylinders were placed on the ground, rather than from planes.
PH: This would be a major revelation…
JS: … it would be a major revelation …
PH: … given the number of people rubbishing the idea that these could have been fake videos at the time.
JS: Well, these two scientists, I think they’re non-political — they wouldn’t have been sent to Douma, if they’d had strong political views, by the OPCW. They want to speak to the Conference of the Member States in November, next month, and give their views, and be allowed to come forward publicly with their concerns. Because they’ve tried to raise them internally and been — they say they’ve been — suppressed, their views have been suppressed.Steele appears to be referring to a Courage Foundation panel meeting which convened in Brussels on October 15th, the findings of which were published the other day by the Courage Foundation and WikiLeaks, though it’s possible the briefing he refers to was a separate Brussels event around the same time. I’ve been unable to reach Steele for comment but will update with clarification if I can contact him.
They are lying to us about what’s happening Syria. Shortly after the political/media class began blaring that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad had killed dozens of civilians with chemical weapons in April of last year, Grayzone’s Max Blumenthal wrote the following in an article for TruthDig:
“In 2007, journalist James Bamford recalled how Americans had been subjected to ‘a long line of hyped and fraudulent stories that would eventually propel the U.S. into a war with Iraq — the first war based almost entirely on a covert propaganda campaign targeting the media.’ The dirty war on Syria represents an extension of that strategy, with the mainstream media operating hand in glove with insurgent-allied influence operations like the White Helmets to cultivate public support for another war of regime change.”
Indeed, the narrative manipulation campaign against the Syrian government is historically unprecedented in its depth and scale. From bizarre narrative management operations posing as rescue services, to CNN staging a fake, scripted interview featuring a seven year-old Syrian girl blaming Assad for a chemical weapons attack, to the BBC’s manipulative and transparently bogus Saving Syria’s Children documentary, to the US-centralized empire’s increasingly evident influence over the OPCW, we’re seeing evidence of a campaign to distort the public understanding of what’s going on in a foreign nation the likes of which we’ve never before seen.S
______________________“Oh Boy, You Really Killed Me This Time” Confirms ISIS Leader
Thisexplains what is behind the scenes.
Sorry wrong link. Here is the correct one.
That is amusing but I am looking for sources which indicate proof of death. So far no one wants to touch the subject.
SA, could you check your link to medium.com please? I’m getting Page Not Found. You may need to find another source.
Try this
.The seemingly random events in Syria over the last 2 months may after all not be that random but may have been carefully co-ordinated by US and Russia behind the scenes according to this view from El Mayadeen, an Arabic language news channel based in Beirut. It is worth reading this in full and here is a google translation of what they say.
Putin and Trump: Al-Baghdadi is yours, Al-Joulani for me and Kurds for allWhile continuing to talk about the details of al-Baghdadi’s death and questioning it, the region has witnessed dramatic, rapid and sustained developments since the beginning of this month, especially after Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to the Turkish military incursion east of the Euphrates, which led to the recent Sochi agreement that changed Military and political rules of the game in the region.
It was not only these axes that defined the last three weeks, and Qsed, particularly the Kurdish wing, became a key element in the region’s equations after Washington, Moscow, its European capitals and its leader, Mazlum Abdi (Kobane), one of the pupils of Abdullah Ogalan, The leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), may soon become a new Mandela as the U.S. election approaches, in which Trump’s fortunes have increased after al-Baghdadi’s death, and bin Laden’s death in May 2011 increased Obama’s chances in the 2012 election, especially after Trump acknowledged that the operation was supported by The Kurds, which was previously declared by Mazlum Abdi even before Trump, also announced the killing of Abu Hassan al-Muhajir near the Turkish-controlled town of Jarabulus, which controls all areas around the Turkmen village of Berisha where Al-Baghdadi was killed.
Everyone knows that Turkey, which has good relations with Al-Nusra and seeks to block the Syrian army’s entry into Idlib, is present in the area extending from Jarabulus to Idlib and Afrin with high military and intelligence intensity, and through the clans and armed factions of the so-called “National Army”, which was Ankara He knew every small and large in the area, including how Al-Baghdadi came to her and where he was hiding with his wives and aides.
Here begins with the many scenarios that Moscow expects to allow U.S. aircraft to fly in Syrian airspace (along the border with Turkey), especially since Berisha, which is 6 km from the Turkish border, was seconds away from the Hmeimim base, which gave Washington’s the green light to do this operation, in exchange for an ideal, inevitable and close Russian operation, it will target Al-Joulani if he does not agree with Turkey to disband the organization, deliver heavy weapons and withdraw from Idlib in the next few days.
“It’s time to get rid of all the leaders of terrorist organizations” as a sign of the next phase to get rid of the Golani, a peace that was a war, and in response to the U.S.-Russian will that resolved the issue of Al-Baghdadi and those with him. “The operation took place after five months of coordination and joint cooperation with the Americans,” said Trump, who thanked the Kurds for his part.
This may be an indication of the role the Kurds play and will play later to get rid of all Da’esh leaders and operatives arrested in the camps they control east of the Euphrates. After Trump forced Erdogan to receive hundreds of them, he transferred others to U.S. bases in western Iraq, and may hand over the rest of them to the Syrian state after the final agreement between “Qasd” and Damascus, which would mean a U.S. withdrawal from The Syrian oil areas before the presidential elections in November next year, but before the issue of Golani and Al-Nusra is resolved.
These initiatives and possibilities are the region’s most important and exciting developments that will be characterized by the elimination of all the terrorist organizations that Obama and Hillary Clinton have established, according to Trump, despite all the great services they have provided to America, the imperialist states and Israel. The biggest beneficiary of the so-called “Arab Spring”.
The next phase may also have a dramatic shift in the common U.S.-Russian position of recognition thanks to the Kurds in eliminating ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, which could mean first putting pressure on Damascus and then on Turkey and Iraq to think of a new formula for national dialogue within each country. To recognize the Kurds with more human, cultural and political rights.
The visit of Qasd’s military commander, Mazlum Abdi, to Washington, and his meeting with President Trump and then President Putin, may be limited to the likely changes, especially if these visits are preceded by President Erdogan’s visit to Washington next month, after Trump asked him for a direct dialogue with Mazloum Abedi
Before or after these visits, Abdi may surprise everyone with a historic visit to Damascus, which was welcomed by The Mufti of Syria, Ahmed Hassoun, and by Faisal al-Meqdad. It has become clear that The Oppressed will not hesitate to make such a visit with a U.S. green light and Russian encouragement, after being sure that reconciliation with Damascus will help him to pressure Ankara and force it first to withdraw from the eastern Euphrates, and secondly to release its leader Abdullah Ogalan, who has been in prison since February 1999, and he had seven years to become a new Mandela and come out to win the Nobel Peace Prize!
The possible developments and surprises in the region, and more importantly the relationship between Moscow and Washington, and the bargaining and bargaining between them may shorten this period, after the closure of the file of political Islam, which would be a victory for President Putin, who responded to him by sending his troops to Syria in September 2015.
According to the Russian-American perception, the “secular Kurds” may replace the Islamists as the two capitals continue to account for the Arab region, which is the focus of everyone’s attention not only now but throughout history.
It was the cradle of a large number of civilizations and all religions and together was the cause of dozens and even hundreds of wars, some of them because of the so-called energy sources, and the future of water, all close to Mesopotamia (Tigris and Euphrates) and where the Kurds live after being divided by British colonial calculations. French between Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran.
Putin and Trump may now think of bringing them together, if not with mathematics and geography, but with history, culture, ethics, and humanity. This explains the U.S.-Russian coordination and cooperation to address the Syrian problem once and for all with the implications for Turkey, Iraq and the Kurds later, i.e. in the next few days, not the next few weeks, to work together to get rid of all the terrorists, who, as Chechen President Kadyrov said, They were created by America and it is their prerogative to get rid of them, this time by bargaining with Putin, of course, if America doesn’t go back to its old habit and think about using the remaining terrorists somewhere and at another time.
It is not difficult for Washington to find alternatives as long as the land of this geography is fertile for traitors and agents of all kinds, races, races and sects, and they are always material for exciting, fearsome and bloody scenarios, and the details always remain between the words of hearsay and gossip, including that al-Joulani sold Al-Baghdadi in exchange for saving his life!If this analysis is correct it may be that the moves to ‘protect’ the oil fields in Syria may be a temporary sweetener for the Trump critics.
Clark: what happened to avatars?
I dont know if it’s worth learning the comment format here.
Ben
Sorry for my frivolous reply. The DNA tests are usually rapid these days but of course the verification process may be a bit time consuming. I read somewhere that one of his defecting helpers had stolen his pants and smuggled it out beforehand so that this can be verified. Currently both the Iraqis and the Kurds are claiming they helped track Al Baghdad. There are also reports that the Kurds helped in the tracking and liquidation of the second in command near Jarablus. But of course few people are interested in the actual ptoof being produced these days. Even the OPCW seems to be untrustworthy these days as discussed here.thanks for keeping us informed, SA
Just start another WTC7 thread if you care so much.
At first I didn’t realise what the problem was. Then I tried to work around it by blocking external content, thinking that my old 2GB computer was not powerful enough. Then I informed Site Admin, who declined to disable embedding. Now I can’t even get the page to complete loading.
I am SICK of your lies, you FUCKING conspiracy theorist. When I had a moderators login I repeatedly REOPENED comments on the 9/11 thread. It was CRAIG who had it closed. Now fuck off and die.
Eh? I can see your Gonzo Dagger, my Mandelbrot excerpt, and SA’s blog-generated Identicon. Maybe something on your system is blocking gravatar.com?
Frank Gardner is spreading the word about how Islamic State got started
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50208793
“Islamic State has always been a bizarre fusion of ultra-conservative jihadists with former members of the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s military and intelligence apparatus, known as Baathists.The Baathists provided the weapons, the explosives, the intelligence and the planning – nobody knew Iraq better than them – while the jihadists brought the fanaticism and the volunteer suicide bombers.”
So is was nothing to do with America.
The question that has been hiding in the shadows for six years is,
where did the seed money come from?
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