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Food.
In the U.K. we produce about 55% – 60% of equivalent food need, for home consumption.
We have a lot of lamb but most goes for export to Arabia and other places, while we import cheaper Antipodean lamb.
We have the pound. This is what we have traded with for more than three hundred years.
Other countries have to weigh, if our pound is worth what we say it is worth.
If our debt goes above 100% of GDP, they may come to believe that our pound is not worth, that which it was worth.
If we have a debt that is two and a half times 100% of GDP, they would down valve the pound, we trade with.
This would mean that stuff we buy from abroad, like grain from Russia or beef from Argentina or corn from the U.S.A. or sugar from Jamaica, coffee from Ethiopia, tea from Sri Lanka, would become more expensive.
Over time, we would fine it was expensive to import food from abroad, so we might, again consider it a benefit to grow more food on our home turf.
But, many acres of land are now covered in solar farms or houses, that land is beyond economic reach.
The country which can not feed itself is doomed.Europe and the U.K. have recently had a down on agriculture.
It is dirty, like mining Iron or Coal.
Dirt is dirty.
However, civilization probably only really got going when most of the population got down and dirty.
Civilizations collapse, when there is not enough food to feed the populace.
Beware the land that cannot feed its own people, for they will tear it down.
Every civilization that there has ever been collapses in famine.So the UK currency would devalue relative to other currencies.
But pounds, dollars and euros are very valuable compared with most other currencies, aren’t they? It certainly looks like it; things from poorer countries cost little for what they are or how much of it we get, and this keeps those countries poor. Lots of things aren’t worth repairing because new ones from abroad are so cheap; this causes lots of waste.
Also, a lot of other governments are in a similar position: Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, France, Italy, Singapore, Spain, the USA all have higher government debt per GDP; Japan’s is two and a half times as high. The UK percentage is only a little more than the world average, and 20% less than the USA’s. So is the same thing happening to the whole world, or much of it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
Russia is a creditor nation and has a positive net international investment position (NIMP). Russia has one of the lowest government debts (total external and domestic) and lowest external debts (total public and private) among major economies.
Europe seems to be on the road to implosion, especially the E.U.
The E.U. had more than a quarter of world trade, now perhaps only 14%.
World trade for Europe, did mean bringing in cheap minerals, cheap energy and cheap food.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHEIKmpv_TA&t=541s
Russia has extremely low levels of foreign debt.
most debt is within Russia. Russia has the world’s largest forest, unlimited fresh water, unlimited Iron. Essentially unlimited energy, 30% of world traded commodities. Vast swathes of wheat growing land, the thing they are short of is people. Yet The E.U. has caste itself adrift from Russia, this is somewhat like a suicide pact.
Is this madness at the behest of America/
I of course mean the Elite, not ordinary working Americans.
Even Germany is on the slide to collapse, the engine of the E.U.
I do hope the Russo – Ukraine/NATO war ends soon.We should always remember that many essential minerals are abundant in Russia.
Potash, Nickel, iron, Copper, Uranium, Vanadium and almost everything else.“A Flash In the Pan”
Many Chinese buildings are now banning E.V. from in building / underground parking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGepSEOacVA
It is expected that in the future China will have 300,000,000 E.V.
They calculate they expect 40,000 E.V. fires per year, in China.They are doing the E.V. testing for the rest of the world.
It is being talked about with the Labour administration that our car industry will die, if we order them to only build E.V. Ed Milliband is on the horns of a dilemma.
Should he continue to race ahead with full electrification which would bankrupt the U.K. or should he evolve his thinking, admitting he was obsessed and his thinking was unreal?
Grangemouth to shut next year.
Port Talbot to shut this year.
No more oil wells, no more methane, no more coal, no more virgin steel, no more car industry, no more jobs.I can’t imaging how my parents’ generation got through WWII. How could it have been possible to do everything differently like that? I think it’s impossible; WWII must be a hoax.
Porgera Gold Mine PNG
Porgera Gold Mine is the second largest mine in Papua New Guinea and is regarded as one of the world’s top ten producing gold mines.
Gold is used a lot in electronic circuitry and in space.
One of the worlds largest gold mine, continually in trouble.
The mine’s proven and probable mineral reserves as of 2009 amount to 8.1 million ounces of gold.
In August 1994, eleven workers were killed when a blast destroyed the Dyno Wesfarmers explosives factory at the Porgera Gold Mine. The explosion left a crater 40 meters wide and 15 meters deep, damaging property up to 2 kilometers away. The cause of the accident was never determined.
On 3 March 2012, five people were killed and at least one person was injured in a routine blast at the mine. Police said the victims had entered the mine illegally to search for gold. The three survivors were arrested and charged with trespassing.
The main concern with riverine tailings disposal as practiced by the PJV is not the quantities of sediment, but the toxicity of the tailings, which contains significant quantities of cyanide, mercury and other heavy elements.
Porgera Gold Mine has consistently been criticized for environmental and human rights issues. Its internal investigations have revealed that killings, brutal gang rapes, and beatings have been carried out by mine security personnel.Not very nice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porgera_Gold_Mine#External_links
Rival tribe shootouts kill 30 in Papua New Guinea
Quote BBC
“Buildings were set on fire and schools, hospitals and government offices in the region have been closed, according to the Papua New Guinea Post-Courier.
Tribal conflicts are a frequent occurrence in Papua New Guinea’s highlands, but an influx of automatic weapons has “turbocharged” the most recent bout of violence, according to police. A witness, speaking to Radio New Zealand, described the recent levels of violence as “unprecedented”.At least 26 people were killed, including 16 children, when three villages in East Sepik province were attacked earlier this year.
In 2022, gunfights between rival clans living near the mine killed at least 17 people.”
I doubt it will just be gold and silver mines where trouble happens, as we apparently need more and more metals for our all electric future, we should be mindful of the poor people who dig this stuff out of their ground, and the poisoned land that is left behind, while our concerns move onto more local problems, like freezing pensioners.
There isn’t an “all electric future” – electricity currently provides 2.8% of our total energy usage. When FF run out later this century, where will the remaining 97% come from?
Shibboleth, don’t tell Ed. Milliband, he might blow a fuse.
Quote
“There isn’t an “all electric future” – electricity currently provides 2.8% of our total energy usage. When FF run out later this century, where will the remaining 97% come from?”
O.K. I admit it, you have amazed me, can you explain your working out, please?Quote BBC
“Foreign Secretary David Lammy has called climate change a more serious and widespread threat than terrorism.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62d477yg95o
“David Lammy announced the government would launch a global initiative to accelerate the rollout of clean energy.”Does global mean global or is it Lammy speak for all of the U.K.?
I don’t see how David Lammy can make other countries rollout clean energy?
Explain your working out please?
Try this Michael. I’d also recommend Tom Murphy’s excellent video series on modernity where he extrapolates further. Hope you can find some time to digest. How are you managing Bellamy?
The Energy Trap: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/
Metastatic Modernity: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/07/metastatic-modernity-launch/
Michael, I think electricity amounts to between a fifth and a quarter of all energy usage, but electricity is just a carrier, it has to be generated, and about 80% of electricity is generated from fossil fuels. So the amount of non-fossil fuel energy is paltry. So read Shibboleth’s link, because we really are up shit creek.
Shibboleth, your second link is wrong.[ Mod: Now fixed. ]Ed. Milliband and now David Lammy seemed to have nailed the labour colours of an all electric future, electricity supplied by renewables and nuclear, to the mast of state.
Probably a reasonable mid-term way to go.
However they think it will happen, in a startlingly short time.
Even installing two million on-street-chargers will be very problematic and expensive.
Behind my daughter’s house is a massive substation, they are taking the prime Hampshire growing land and covering with a monster solar farm and Elon Musk type battery pack, extra infrastructure is being installed for overhead electrification of their local railway line. So, this future, is happening. They are building Hinkley Point C.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
price estimate – keeps going up, now at about forty five billion.
They have completed construction and it is working well, the North Sea Link
The cable runs from Kvilldal, Suldal, in Norway, to Cambois near Blyth in England
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_Link
At 720 km (450 mi) it was the longest subsea interconnector in the world when it became operational on 1 October 2021.So, it is not just pipe dreams but i think they should not promise more than we can manage.
Personally, I think it a big mistake for the U.k. to turn its back on our Hydrocarbon resources, I think it is too soon.No idea what your gripe is with Milliband – he’s just another politician trumpeting the establishment line. He most likely is concerned about his own career and knows if he tells the “truth” about our predicament, he’ll be voted out of office. I’m quite sure every senior politician knows we’re screwed and the future is bleak for humanity – and they sure don’t want to be the focus of any blame or recriminations once it finally dawns on everyone else.
So they tell you a story – and not to worry too much – as it’s all in hand and we’re going to have an all electric green future. All the gullible fools lap it up. But we can’t – for all the reasons that have been explained to you by many good people on this forum.
We could have had a much more promising outlook had our population growth not got out of hand, but with 8.2 billion people on earth and 70 million in the UK all relying on FF energy, we don’t have the capacity, resources or time to make any transition to electric. It would be best if we just wait until the population collapses and salvage what is left, because there won’t be any planned resolution, whilst you and most other folk remain in denial.
Hi Shibboleth,
I find it quite amazing that you claim that electricity currently provides 2.8% of our total energy usage.Could you enlighten us, are you meaning the United Kingdom?
or do you mean the World as a whole?
Ed. Milliband thinks that we will get to Net Zero in six years time, he is the energy minister.
Ed. Milliband is delusional.Rather than quoting websites, could you tell us why you think the figure is 2.8%
No Michael, it’s global usage. If you read Clark’s post above it should offer a clue. Green or renewable electric production is currently 2.2% and expected to rise to 2.8% later this year. Of course, it isn’t really renewable or green as it relies on finite resources for infrastructure and components. Remove the FF component and we’ve lost 97% of our energy. The figure is cited in Tom Murphy’s video series and elsewhere – I’ll find the reference and post it later. Do you actually read the links provided for you?
So, do you think the United Kingdom going flat out for Carbon Zero will make any difference to the increase in Global Warming? Would it reduce the Carbon in the atmosphere? If the answer is almost no difference, perhaps we are having the wool pulled over our heads by the Elite people.
I think Clark agrees with me, battery cars are no answer, unless you are Elon Musk.According to the International Energy Agency, Shibboleth, at the end of 2023, renewables accounted for nearly 6% of primary global energy production of around 20 terawatts:
https://x.com/IEA/status/1827341347881132206
However, that’s not the most important thing: the key point is that the amounts of both wind & solar power are increasing exponentially. Based on current rates, in ten years renewables will account for about half of our current total global energy requirements – and all of them within another five*. Of course, the Malthusians will claim that we can’t produce enough steel / copper / aluminium / zinc / nickel / manganese / molybdenum / neodymium / dysprosium / silver etc, etc, to be able to do this – but, as usual, they’re wrong on every measure.
On that happy note, enjoy the weekend.
* We’ll only need around 10 terawatts if most our energy is coming from renewables, since unlike with internal combustion engines & fossil fuel-fired power stations, comparatively little energy is being wasted as unwanted heat. I can go through the (fairly simple) maths if you want, but people on here tend not to like it when I do that.
From ourworldindata’s global energy mix page renewables accounted for 13.4% of global energy consumption with nuclear adding another 4%-ish. Renewables include hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, wave and tidal,and bioenergy, but not traditional biofuels.
I am not sure if consumption data is any different from production data, I can’t see that it would be meaningfully different. However, if anyone knows differently please correct me. Knowing that sometimes they have to switch off (or pay them to feather the turbines) wind farm generation so as not to overload the grid during periods of less demand I wonder what the renewables capacity is.
I have no objection to maths Lapsed Agnostic, the more information the better. You might lessen the snark occassionally though that doesn’t bother me much either.I will find the reference for the figures I gave after the weekend, but I’m fairly sure it came from Tom Murphy or Bill Rees within the last month.
But just to be clear, solar, wind, tidal and nuclear are not sustainable ‘renewals’ – the materials used in mining, transportation and construction all require FF derived energy. When you consider the ecological footprint of, for example, EVs – it is significantly greater than internal combustion vehicles.
“Of course, the Malthusians will claim that we can’t produce enough steel / copper / aluminium / zinc / nickel / manganese / molybdenum / neodymium / dysprosium / silver etc, etc, to be able to do this – but, as usual, they’re wrong on every measure.”
So these minerals are all infinite and inexhaustible?
EPR
Flamanville’s new-generation EPR reactor is the first nuclear unit to be connected to the French grid since the Civaux 2 nuclear reactor in 1999. It is expected to produce about 1.6 gigawatts (GW) per hour, making it France’s largest reactor.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/frances-edf-investigates-second-automatic-shutdown-flamanville-3-reactor-2024-09-17/This is the prototype for Hinkley Point C – in Somerset
Sept 17 (Reuters) – French state-owned energy group EDF said on Tuesday its teams were shutting down the new Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor to carry out technical checks after the plant triggered an automatic halt for the second time this month.
There is not and can not be enough Copper on Earth, for an “all electric future” for all eight billion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfRlqxsu4aA
Associate Professor Simon MichauxSo, perhaps Ed. Milliband can transform the U.K. over the next six years but he can’t make the world do his evil bidding, can he? Millions are going to starve and hundreds of millions will soon be jobless.
There is no Carbon Zero.
Not in the short/medium term, society is already breaking down, in multiple places.
One of those places is Europe.What I am driving at, is the Green Transition, as envisioned by Ed. Milliband will not happen, because it can not happen.
There are physical/chemical impossibilities in Ed. Milliband’s way.
There is not enough Copper in the Earth for this to happen.
An other route must be ploughed, unless there is a massive reduction in human numbers.
Ed. Milliband is like a child, who has just learned something and immediately believes it all.
He is a nutter, who should not be in charge of a whelk stall.
His ability to understand is very limited.ET, I think the difference lies in the “substitution method” referred to in Endnote 2:
– “The ‘substitution method’ – in comparison to the ‘direct method’ – attempts to correct for the inefficiencies (energy wasted as heat during combustion) in fossil fuel and biomass conversion. It does this by correcting nuclear and modern renewable technologies to their ‘primary input equivalents’ if the same quantity of energy would be produced from fossil fuels.”
The gist is that heat engines are inefficient; to make a gigawatt of electricity, a thermal power station has to make about three gigawatt of heat. Wind and solar aren’t like that; there is no intermediate step of producing heat. So OurWorldInData have multiplied the electricity from wind and solar by an undeclared factor that’s probably about 3 and called that “renewables consumption”, which I think is confusing.
