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N_ is acting in a very un Marxist way echoing the empire’s attack on climate change Resistance and attacking the NHS workers as tools of the empire. Moreover N_ rarely answers when challenged just producing more conspiracy theories. I have seen this methodology before.
– “I have seen this methodology before.”
Yes. It comes to be easily recognisable. The ‘net is awash with it.
– “…but together with the study published on the use of dexamethasone, may help save some lives until more effective targeted therapy is found.”
The New York and Spanish studies, and the Diamond Princess figures give an Infection Fatality Rate of about 1.4%. However, these were with hospitalisation, treatment, breathing support etc. We must remember that left unchecked by social restrictions, covid-19 would still overwhelm hospitals by a factor of ten, in which case the IFR would more likely be around 2.8% – that would be around 1.9 million people in the UK.
Reported deaths with Covid-19 in the US:
5-8 Sep (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue): 707, 430, 286, 496
12-15 Sep (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue): 707, 392, 480, 1197
Figures from Worldometers.So yesterday’s figure was an increase of 141% over the number for the previous Tuesday. This is looking like the beginning of a “third wave” in the US.
Statistical Note
Given the weekly reporting cycle, it is sensible to compare figures from the same day of the week, as above. The federal Labour Day holiday on Monday 7 September probably had an effect on the usual reporting pattern, but the figures for the three days prior to the two Tuesdays suggest that at least most of yesterday’s increase is NOT the result of reports stacking up because of the holiday. If such a stack-up happened, it might explain the small decrease on Sunday and the small increase on Monday, but it doesn’t explain the rocketing growth yesterday.It is just about possible that the holiday may have caused some reports to be filed early rather than late (I am not sure how this may have happened, but it may have occurred for some bureaucratic reason), so keep a watch on the figure for today. But this seems unlikely. Far more likely, big trouble is starting. This may turn out to be concentrated in states where the Trump campaign has held large rallies with lots of shouting by people not wearing masks.
“Cash from Covid: Who is Making a Quick Buck?” – piece in the Glasgow Keelie, voice of “the dissident, the downtrodden, the troublemaker, the enraged, the anarchist, and we welcome the participation of all true lovers of liberty”.
Covid-19 cross-infects far more readily indoors. The whole northern hemisphere has just passed equinox, night is now longer than day, the weather is getting less pleasant, people are now gathering indoors, and 90% of the global population is in the northern hemisphere.
UK infection numbers are rising; we should be locking down now. At first the increasing numbers could be accounted for by increased testing, but deaths have been rising for a week now, so true infection numbers must have been rising for nearly a month. The seven-day average deaths now are equivalent to March 20. On March 23, the day of the stay-at-home order, cumulative deaths stood at 331. There have been a similar number of deaths between September 3 and yesterday. This all looks sickeningly familiar, just like March; the government is unwilling to support the population to stay at home by giving us money, so instead they tinker at the edges of their restrictions. And they haven’t a clue what effective measures look like anyway because they’re scientifically illiterate.
The Russian government has been widely criticised in the West for deploying their vaccine before Phase III trials. However, most of Russia has an inland climate, far more harsh than the UK’s. Moscow for instance gets severe cold weather, and much housing is Soviet-legacy high density apartment blocks; very high cross-infection appears inescapable. I suspect that the Russian government has weighed the possibility of adverse vaccine effects against the near certainty of rapid mass infection, and the best-tested vaccine next spring will be the Russian one.
Clark
The Russian vaccine has not been approved for wide scale use, only for a select group. A large scale trial has started in Russia and other countries and the vaccine will only be released for general use after the results of the trial are published. The anti-Russia media attack on Russia is part of this misrepresentation. There is a good explanation of what is actually happening here.I am not sure anymore that a second lockdown will work. The first one worked because it was observed by most; the experience was new. Now people are less observant. Social distancing and masks and so on work well in shops but can hardly be applied in eateries and pubs. You can’t eat or drink wearing a mask ?. But the mask drops even by people who should be wearing them as in public maintainable workers aggregating in places, admittedly mainly in open spaces but not really social distancing. Where I live, there is little sign of social distancing except in formalised settings.
The problem now is that this government does not like to be unpopular and therefore likes to throw the blame back on to the public, whilst being reluctant to effectively enforce the unpopular measures.
The opportunity has been missed. Lockdown with proper isolation and quarantine measures could have worked first time if proper elimination or near elimination of the virus was contemplated, given that we are an island, and if strict measures then taken to limit reimporting the virus. These last have never been in place and to this day air transport hubs have not been effectively monitored to limit incoming passengers reintroducing more waves of infection. NZ and Australia have had some successes on this line.
Report from Airstrip One
1. The idea that the rulers are whipping up in the population is “Pray for a vaccine to save us”.
Refusing the vaccine when Big Pharma decides “the time has come” will generally be viewed as a crime against humanity, God, common sense, sanity, Work, Property, the white race, and the universe. Wait and see.2. Among middle class types (a minority of the population) there is also the idea of allowing proper people to “go about their business” as they carry microwave trackers (“smartphones” – yeah, right) with “Track and trace” software installed. “Track and trace” is a typically alliterative or otherwise schematically emphasised bit of advertising talk, basically denoting the electronic tagging of everyone who isn’t under arrest.
3. Grassing up your neighbours if they gather in groups of more than six is being officially encouraged including by government ministers.
4. Meanwhile there is talk of blocking off Kent, the county that British people will have to try travel through if they want to escape famine and death camps by running to the continent. (Clue: Ireland won’t be an option.) What would readers say if they heard that governments in Syria or Venezuela were sealing off their border regions? If they could put down their copies of the Daily Mail for a minute they might be able to apply the same “thought” to Britain that they apply to foreign countries. That’s if they weren’t terrified of foreigners so much, which is of course highly counter-factual. To spell it out: the authorities want you to have nowhere to run to.
5. How many of those recorded as having died “with” Covid-19 have NOT had pneumonia that they caught in an institution?
How many have even been tested for whether they had pneumonia or not?
I reckon practically all the elderly people who have died “with” Covid-19 have had pneumonia.
Dying “with” something doesn’t mean shee-yit. If I die “with” an ingrowing toenail, it doesn’t mean it killed me.6. SARS-Cov2 is not a flu-type virus, but “Covid-19” is a collection of flu-like symptoms. There’s nothing “odd” about having an impaired sense of smell if you’ve got a cough (or indeed a cold). Yet the authorities are doing things like closing down schools because one child has a runny nose. Never mind that a runny nose is a symptom of a cold, is not a symptom of Covid-19, and does not indicate that someone is more likely to have SARS-Cov2 than if they don’t have a runny nose. All it means is that you’ve got a bit of a cold. Colds are mostly caused by rhinoviruses. Even when they are caused by coronaviruses (maybe 15% of the time), that’s not the same coronavirus as the SARS strain that’s going around. That SARS strain doesn’t give you a runny nose.
7. Sometimes I think people need advice on how to wipe their own bottoms. Talking of bottoms, expect more articles about toilet rolls to take people’s minds off the prospect of food shortages.
8. Trinity College, Cambridge, seems to be above the law banning evictions.
9. I wish people would stop talking about pubs. The majority never go to a pub.
10. Turning off the internet for a few days would cause the suicide rate to skyrocket.
I couldn’t find the stat I was looking for about going to pubs, but ISTR that the proportion of adults in Britain who go to the pub whether frequently or occasionally had fallen below 50% even before the start of fascism six months ago. If I get time I will look for whether this statistic comes from the ONS.
In 2018 the ONS reported that 27% of those aged 16-24 describe themselves as teetotal. (See the graph in section 2 of that article.) Meanwhile, the proportion of beer sold in the “off trade” has risen relative to the proportion sold in pubs or on other premises for consumption in-house. Many pubs have closed.
Booze companies of course market fanatically to students…universities being to a significant degree about alcohol as well as moneylending. So it’s good to see that so many youngsters don’t drink. How much attention does one have to pay to realise that booze companies have also been marketing fanatically to the population in general by force-feeding them with the message “Celebrate the end of lockdown – get p*issed out of your head down the pub”. Ever felt you were being treated like a cretin?
Of course there is also the consideration that it’s harder to pick your smartphone when you’ve got a glass in your hand, which might explain some of the decline in the number of people who go to pubs. Every location in the real world must seem pretty much the same to smartphone users. Walking the dog in the park? Pick your phone. Having a meal with your spouse? Pick your phone. Taking a crap? Pick your phone? Having a shag? W-wait…someone’s liked something on Facebook – excuse me for a moment while I stop thrusting – it’ll give you a chance to check your Twitter feed too, or look at some porn.
There is very little consequential criticism of addiction…
SA, some people are less observant. Most that I know remain vigilant. The fortnight I was in London, mask use on public transport was high; over 80% I’d say.
Some people have become less observant, presumably swayed by the propaganda primarily from the right-wing corporate “news” media, but with summer’s low death rate covid-19 has been easy to dismiss. But with the death rate now rising rapidly, that is likely to change.
Thanks for the MoA link. So it was just yet more Russuphobic FUD about the Russian vaccine. Typical.
N_:
– ‘Dying “with” something doesn’t mean shee-yit.’
http://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-certificate-data-covid-19-as-the-underlying-cause-of-death
There are now hundreds of regional examples of overall death rates increasing to way above long-term averages, and only returning to normal after social restrictions were imposed. Likewise, there are hundreds of examples of death rates increasing to way above long-term averages after social restrictions have been relaxed. This makes it beyond reasonable doubt that some new airborne-transmitted virus is the cause.
– ‘“Covid-19” is a collection of flu-like symptoms.’
Seven months later, what we know about Covid-19 — and the pressing questions that remain
See also the articles linked from the one above; “Covid-19 brain complications include strokes and psychosis” and “Long after a Covid-19 infection, mental and neurological effects smolder”.
It mystifies me that you continue to endorse the Right-wing and corporate propaganda and conspiracy theories about covid-19. Their agenda barely requires thinking about – for the sake of profit, they want to convince as many people as they can to go out and work and spend as much as possible, public health be damned. That should be obvious to anyone who knows Marx’s work. They also don’t want any new vaccines paid for by governments, who have vastly greater bargaining and litigating power than the fragmented and alienated public.
– “Ever felt you were being treated like a cretin?”
Eschew the corporate media.
N_:
– “…the authorities are doing things like closing down schools because one child has a runny nose.”
The schools shouldn’t even be open:
http://www.endcoronavirus.org/schools
– “It is not safe to reopen schools for in-person schooling while community transmission is still present. In-person schooling increases the risk of rapidly escalating case numbers throughout the community, placing health and lives at risk and possibly requiring further lockdowns to contain transmission. Before a community can safely begin to reopen schools (primary, secondary and higher education), they must bring new cases to zero and have safeguards in place to keep cases at zero.”
Multiple examples provided of schools driving community infection, plus a spreadsheet with links to over 400 articles. UK death rate now rising as fast as it did in March, less than a month after reopening schools.
Fir fook’s sake, close the fookin schools!
N_
It is frustrating that somebody as intelligent as you keeps ignoring what has been discussed and proven to be nonesensical , move on man.
Covid 19 causes a different loss of smell and taste through a different mechanism than a bunged up nose does. I have described how this is different before and you will have to research this for yourself and come back and discuss, preferably by the Monday morning. Thank you.I’ve thought up a “Track and Trace” algorithm. It would inform each user of estimated risk without informing any authority. It could run in parallel with Big Brother schemes without interfering with them. It works like this.
Each user who wishes to participate installs a free and open-source application on their “smartphone” (I too dislike that term) or other portable device.
The application generates a random number long enough that the chances of any two being the same is vanishingly small; we shall call this number a Device Unique Identifier DUID. It transmits this number on short range communications whenever other similar communications are detected.
Each application also scans short range communications, recording each DUID it encounters, and the integral of signal strength over the time of the encounter.
Any user of the system who suspects themself to be infected informs their application of this. The application then posts their DUID to a public online noticeboard, with the status “suspected”.
Any user of the system who tests positive informs their application of this. The application then posts their DUID to a public online noticeboard, with the status “positive”.
Any user of the system who tests negative informs their application of this. The device then deletes their DUID from the public noticeboard.
Since there is no database connecting DUID to personal identity, posting DUIDs to the public noticeboard poses minimal immediate privacy risk. The application can generate a new DUID occasionally to break any association between DUID and personal identity that may have been generated by third-party surveillance. Each public noticeboard would be relevant to a particular geographical area of a size chosen to keep the data manageable.
Each device application periodically scans the relevant public noticeboards comparing those DUIDs with its internal list of recorded encounters, calculating an assessment of infection risk and informing the user, automatically producing an alert if some threshold is exceeded. Since this is all voluntary the user would then presumably get tested, and inform their application of the result.
Improvements and refinements could be added, eg. shops and transport have wifi that could also be assigned identifiers and posted to the noticeboards, so that portable applications could assess the risk in spaces they had visited.
Data is kept manageable within each portable application by deleting any recorded DUID and its associated encounter integral ten days after the encounter, unless that DUID is found on a public noticeboard within that time.
This algorithm makes least demand upon the device when the proportion of suspected and positive DUIDs is small. But when they’re large, track and trace is pointless anyway and lockdown is called for.
Six months into fascism in Britain: in the words of the state TV and radio service, the London police have “shut down” a protest demonstration held today in Trafalgar Square, and they “used batons to control the crowd”. As a result of the baton use, some protestors were left with “visible injuries”. In other words they crushed the gathering and they beat the sh*t out of the protestors…people peacefully protesting against blanket fascist house arrest and a South African-type “banning” order applying not only to known anti-fascists but to the entire population, or at least to everyone who doesn’t shoot grouse – an order that the fascists have helpfully branded with the number “6”.
Making it absolutely clear that the Labour party supports fascism, London mayor Sadiq Khan blamed the protestors for acting against the “safety of our city” and injuring “hard-working police officers”.
The fascist regime’s position is essentially “no more protests, no more opposition”.
What should happen now is a swell of anti-fascist demonstration, a general strike…but it’s not going to.
The protestors are doing exactly what the corporate media, particularly the Right-wing “news” media has encouraged them to do. At 03:30, hear them laughing at their own risk assessment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEWQhVOOL2E
Note that virtually no one wears a mask. Note the rejection of science by the speakers.
I strongly oppose this government. Governmental leadership in this crisis has been non existent with ministers and advisors acting hypocritically. Restrictions have been late and unscientific. Monetary support has been targeted primarily at the largest corporations and administered by the banks rather than giving support to the people.
But the government being bad doesn’t make the protest good. These ill-educated people have been disinformed about science throughout recent decades by the appalling “science coverage” relentlessly promoted by the corporate media, leaving them vulnerable to the antiscience promoted through anonymised websites such as the so-called Swiss Propaganda Research.
This is very sad.
N_, there were zero political points being made at this protest, absolutely nothing about economic policy. I don’t know how conflict broke out, but the protest did not appear to be committed to non-violence, eg. the video I linked shows a “Gestapo police” placard, and another shows protestors engaging violently with police.
On what basis do you suggest this to have been an “anti-fascist” protest? The protestors appear merely misguided by antiscience, without any coherent political stance at all.
Protestors advancing, police retreating. Protestors chanting “choose your side”. Many shaved heads. I would leave a protest as aggressive as this:
Britain has imprisoned most of the students at Manchester Metropolitan University. More universities look likely to follow. Even Adolf Hitler didn’t do anything like that.
FREE THE STUDENTS!
The schools and universities should never have reopened. The state only reopened them because
a) the banks want their debt “entitlement” for 2020-21;
b) the drug companies want the SARS strain to spread, as public relations for the “vaccine”;
c) so do the surveillance companies (e.g. Apple, Google).Public Hygiene News
The British government has made it illegal for pubs to allow dancing. They just announced the law on Sunday night. They didn’t bother passing it through parliament.It’s moved on from having the effects of a war without an actual war.
We’ve now got some of the effects of famine without having a famine (yet).
In a famine, family relationships weaken and get duller, and people have less energy and hope. (Oh and eventually they die.)There you go, Greens – this is the population control you always wanted.
Most media sources aren’t naming the law. Here it is: The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Obligations of Undertakings) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2020.
The law now dictates that in a pub the management must ensure that
* “no person joins another group”
* there is no dancing.Is saying in a loud voice “down with the government” allowed?
It’s kinda diffcult not to agree that there ought to be an Anti-Lockdown Party. But it would of course be banned, or in the unlikely event that it wasn’t banned it would be stuffed with loonies who like to go on about Hillary Clinton and “pizza”.
Anybody who doesn’t realise that food shortages are almost certainly coming is a complete idiot.
N_, this part of the site is called the “Discussion Forum” yet you have repeatedly avoided discussion with both myself and SA, and continued to post claims as if they had not been refuted. Are you willing to engage in discussion? If not, I think you should be prevented from posting, because disinformation that accelerates the spread of covid-19 increases death and suffering.
– “Anybody who doesn’t realise that food shortages are almost certainly coming is a complete idiot.”
I rent a cottage on Writtle Park Farm near Ingatestone in Essex. The harvest here was successfully gathered in, though the wheat yield was low due to exceptionally low rainfall throughout Spring. All the fields have now been ploughed, and today I saw seeding in progress. Farm work here has not been affected by the covid-19 restrictions and there is no obvious reason that it would be. On what basis do you predict food shortages?
Yes N_ behaves as if he is above discussing with us inferiors. This rather self entitled aloofness belongs much more to elitists than to socialist Marxists. I wonder.
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