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I too had not heard of Iaonnidis before covid-19, but then unlike you apparently, I am not involved with the scientific community so why would I have? According to wiki ‘He graduated in the top rank of his class at the University of Athens Medical School, then attended Harvard University for his medical residency in internal medicine. He did a fellowship at Tufts University for infectious disease.’ and ‘Ioannidis’ 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”[8] is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science’ and so I’m rather surprised he has not come to your attention before. But let it pass, let it pass.
No I don’t ‘propose that Yeadon’s theory be tested by letting SARS-CoV-2 infect the general population without restriction’. Why do you keep making these ridiculous statements? I am asking whether what he is saying is correct. I’m not asking what his motive for saying them is. Neither am I asking to be told to ‘move on’ because my opinion and/or is worthless because I am not a scientist and cannot devote my life to posting comments on this website.
There, now I am pissed off too, and where precisely has that got us?Also on wiki….so where were you?
Press coverage
In 2010, The Atlantic wrote a lengthy piece on Ioannidis, as a part of a special edition about “Brave Thinkers”.[42][43]
In 2014, The Economist wrote a shorter piece about the foundation, by Ioannidis and Steven Goodman, of the Meta-Research Innovation Centre at Stanford.[44]
In 2015, he was profiled in the BMJ and described as “the scourge of sloppy science”.[45]
Steph
” Are antibody tests a reliable indicator of previous infection or not? Is the statement ‘other elements of the immune system which do not produce antibodies may fight off a virus’ correct or incorrect? etc etc?”
First. The antibodies: they can be reliable in some diseases such as for example HIV and others as an indicator of a past or ongoing infection but they have to be worked out for each infectious agent, In the case of SARS-cov2 this has not been worked out fully as far as I know and it is ongoing work. The other problem is that you can develop antibodies but they can also fade away with time, and the time interval can be variable. It is also true that for viruses there is another measure for immunity and these are called T cells. They are lymphocytes that are primed to kill cells infected with viruses, for example. You cam also look for these but this is not as easy as looking for antibodies. In addition there are also what is called ‘natural killer cells’ that do not need priming by previous exposure but act against antigens commonly found in some bacteria and viruses, or activated through non specific immune interactions.
What Yeadon also discusses is cross reacting antibodies (and also T cells). These are antibodies that are not found in those exposed to SARS cov2 but who has been exposed to other corona viruses. There are 4 known corona viruses that cause the common cold (amongst other viruses). Because they are related they may have some antigens in common, but quite often you can account for these by designing the tests to be more specific, which is one of the problems we started with.
Where Yeadon fails to convince, in my view, is that he claims that there is sufficient evidence that these antibodies and T cell responses are present in the population in sufficient numbers, he quotes a figure of around 30%, but really without evidence, It is as if he proposes a hypothesis, but without any evidence, then reaches a conclusion.
As to Ioannidis, he is a true scientist with many achievements. He has taken the view, with some evidence, that because the IFR is low (he says about 0.2%) and because in studies performed by him and others there is a high proportion of people already exposed, because antibody tests show they do, then about 30% are immune and that the next wave will not be very bad. The problem as discussed above is how much do we depend on the accuracy of the tests, and also we still don’t really know whether the presence of the antibodies translates to protection from infection, or how long they last, hence the doubts cast on his recent work. Also his study recruited through Facebook ads, which means that the subjects were self selected. Hope that answers some of your questions.Clark
There is no need to be angry. The big problem nowadays is polarization of views and division amongst people. I think Steph came here to look for information and has an open mind. The anger should rightly be directed at people like Yeadon and others who make sweeping statements in the manner he has, and who have some plausibility. Let us not put Steph off from visiting and asking questions.SA. Thank you for taking the trouble to respond so usefully, and for pouring some soothing balm upon a what had sunk into a rather silly discussion!
I understand exactly what you are saying about the dependence upon an unproven theory. This seems to be where we are at though, to some extent. But that Iaonnidis paper to which I linked bases its argument on many studies, over 60 I think, and is at pains to explain some of the problems and reasons for inclusion. This is, of course, Iaonnidis’ forte and why I like to hear what he has to say. He does go to some lengths to highlight the wide discrepencies in infection rates between different populations, and makes some suggestions (note suggestions not assertions!) as to why that may be the case. I don’t think that Yeadon, whatever his motives might be, is wholly incorrect to use Iaonnidis to further his argument.
Thanks again!Not at all. I agree Ioannidis just advises caution and does state that the situation is very heterogeous and that what may apply in one place does not in others.
My point is that we don’t know what effects this virus has. We can’t know that until enough time has passed for effects to be observed. For instance, human papillomaviruses cause warts. This was known for a long time before it was realised that they also cause cervical cancer, much longer after infection. Various viruses are implicated in causing various cancers long after infection.
Some experts are saying that infection with SARS-CoV-2 ages the immune system by ten years. Some studies have indicated that infection with SARS-CoV-2 decreases IQ by 8% on average. One small study of 100 people who had been infected found that 78 had heart damage, including 12 of 18 whose infection had been entirely symptomless. We have had fit people in their prime, athletes, who have dropped dead from heart attacks months after recovering from covid-19. Another study found that infection decreased sperm count by 50%. This is just a selection, and I’m not saying they are all accurate; I’m saying we should minimise the spread while we discover what the hell we’re dealing with. SARS-CoV-2 can infect almost every cell type in the human body, and it appears specifically adapted to humans, as if produced in human cell cultures in a lab.
Yet all we hear from the anti-lockdown crowd is “IFR, IFR, IFR”, and attempts to minimise it.
Something that’s missing from Ioannidis’ IFR paper is the excess death figures, ie. the rise above the average over five years or so. That’s a pretty bad omission, because covid-19 deaths are tallied differently by different health authorities in different countries.
There’s a lot of talk from the anti-lockdown crowd about tests and their supposed inaccuracy, yet the annual flu mortality figures have usually been compiled by tallying clinical diagnoses and adjusting by comparing with excess death figures, rather than by testing for the presence of a flu virus.
No, I’m not a member of the scientific community. I have an interest in science, I aspire to scientific literacy, and I’ve spent considerable time trying to defend scientific reasoning from New Age Hippies who denigrate it as “just another belief system” that is no more or less valid than “ancient wisdom”. I’m also someone who got pissed off with conspiracy theories after I’d seen a few of them for what they really are.
No Clark, where you ‘think’ you see conspiracy theories! You dismissively talk of the ‘anti-lockdown brigade’ as though they were a homogenous group with a single aim in mind. It is good that you take an interest in science but is it possible that your interest is blinding you to the bigger picture? I would like to take the extremely unorthodox, and probably slightly eccentric, step of telling you a little about myself. I hope you will accept that at least I know more about me than you do, and you would do me an honour if you would take the time to read what I have to say.
I am very definitely one of those you refer to as ‘your fellow humans’, the ones you argue so passionately about saving from a hideous and agonising death from covid-19. I am approaching 70 and have stage 3 breast cancer, with the resultant deterioration in my immune system from both causes. I have no idea how long I have left, a week, a month, a year? I may die from something else altogether. I may have a heart attack, road accident, pneumonia, sepsis, or yes, I may succumb to covid-19. You have rather rudely implied, several times, that my interest in this discussion must be ‘economic’ and that, presumably because I have drawn attention to those trying to argue against, and issue warnings about, the kind of worldwide response to this virus we have seen, my viewpoint is therefore cold hearted and brutal. But you are quite wrong. I do not fear dying from covid-19 any more than I fear dying of any other cause really. But none of the causes are especially inviting and it is just as an unpleasant prospect to me as I’m sure it is to you, just a lot closer in my case if you are much younger. But like everyone else, I must sadly die of something. What scares the pants off me 100 times more though and, when I think of my children and grandchild, actually reduces me to tears, is the impact that living in fear of covid-19 is having on mankind. The very fear that you seem to suffer with and even inflate with statements about huge numbers of people dying hideous deaths.
The loss of rights, hard fought for over hundreds of years by our predecessors. The effect of suppressing the natural gregariousness of young people and trying to enforce the notion that they must kerb their instincts otherwise ‘they will kill granny’. The absolutely inevitable abuse of systems to track people’s lives. The super-charged transference of wealth to the uber-rich. And yes, the economic misery, hardship and suicides suffered by billions around the globe which, unlike covid-19, I am already witnessing first-hand. This is not even to consider the, as yet unasked let alone answered, questions. What effect will seeing all outsiders in face masks, the constant washing of hands, the warnings to keep a distance, have on small children and their future social cohesion? What effects, pathological or otherwise, might occur when the normal circulation of viruses is significantly interrupted over extended periods? What happens when the next new virus emerges? Will we become, as a species, less and less able to combat and overcome things which once we would have battled through, albeit with casualties? Etc etc.
And all this to save me, and my fellow ‘elderlies’ so that we can die of something that isn’t covid-19? No, I don’t want you to do that thank you. I have had 96% of my threescore and ten. I really, really don’t want mankind in general, and my descendants in particular, to bury themselves in this mountain of fear and live, cowering beneath the small number who are obscenely wealthy enough to be unaffected, on my account. The virus may be an unknown, but the effects of living in fear are very well understood indeed.
Dying is part of the package unfortunately, be it tragically young, ridiculously old or anywhere inbetween. Casting absolutely everything to the wind to try and save yourself from it, whatever your age, is a spectacular folly in my opinion. It may be interesting to speculate and debate, but to me it ultimately matters very little which scientist is right or wrong about this or that. What really matters in my view is not what covid-19 may do to us, it’s what we are doing to ourselves.
Now I hope I have demonstrated that I don’t just throw ‘ill-informed rubbish and run away’. I really do have other things that occupy my time usually. I wish you whatever you wish for yourself.Steph
I admire your courage for writing this. Although I don’t agree with everything you say I understand why you feel the way you do, especially since you feel you are very much of the population used as a football between the two sides. Wish you well.The bigger picture is that it may all be too late to answer many of the questions about Covid-19 and the SARS cov2 virus and the possibility of more unknown viruses and pandemics. Whilst the world is engaged with the virus, climate change and other issues have been relegated to the backburner. I used to be optimistic that change can happen through public awareness and elections, but that hope has now long gone. Conspiracies no longer have to be hidden and conspiracy theorists strive to expose the supposed lies, and in so doing introduce more uncertainties and divert attention from the glaring facts. The problem with conspiracy theories is that they focus on single issues whilst ignoring the overall picture. Since the millennium many events show very clearly that it does not matter if lies are exposed, the culprits are in charge of the system and nothing will change, The fact that Blair lied to parliament and to the world, and that his actions and those of George Bush led to mass murder has never been translated into any action that will prevent future recurrence of the same. The methods of aggression by the strong have been refined. There is now total control of the media, and gradual clampdown on dissent. It is naïve to think that we can change anything through voting or through pressure groups. 26 billionaires own more than what half of the population of the world own. The banks, having participated in a Ponzi scheme that wrecked the world economy, have been rewarded rather than punished, because they are part of the ruling class. We have witnessed the slow motion crushing of a peace loving anti racist, using exactly the same accusations of what his life’s work was fighting: racism.
Are we who think about these issues kidding ourselves? Is there something in all this that is so basic that we are missing? Evolution depends on the survival of the fittest by selecting genes of those who survive and procreate and their progeny will have the same genes of ruthlessness to acquire power by any means. The meek shall not inherit the earth but shall be wiped out. This is nature at work, and the only solution that nature will have is to use the same methodology, evolution of deadly viruses, either engineered or through natural processes, climate change that will destroy large parts of civilization as we know it. Maybe this will cause the adjustments needed to save the planet and mankind.
We cannot oppose what is happening because we are part of the system that is in operation. The system is unopposed and it will take forces beyond the system to change it.
Meanwhile we can argue about whether this or that measure or this or that data is more true to what is happening, but it is probably all irrelevant anyway.Another Britain-wide lockdown is imminent, but with schools left open. Crazy, or what? But no, it’s not crazy, and it requires cool observation. They know what they’re doing. It just isn’t what most people think. What will probably happen next is that they force most children to live in schools (or in accommmodation run by those who run schools) over Christmas.
This is basically war against the population. This is already clear in France.
My guess is that a few spectacular bombings and stabbings will also be used, as well as biological means on a much larger scale than hitherto. (The actual physical effects of the current SARS strain have been at a very low level.) The minds of the population are exactly where the rulers want them. Sorry but the rulers will press ahead. Things won’t stay the same. We are at an early stage of fascism. It’s a stage that won’t last long. Stage Two will be underway by Christmas.
The reality is that millions used to go to work for half the day and pick their smartphones for the other half. Now they will grab the chance to pick their phones all day every day, even while they starve and evemn while their children get kidnapped.
The rulers have broken many people’s care for elderly family members.
They have pratically abolished dating.
Next in the target sights is people’s love for their children.
It woouldn’t surprise me if they try to smash love for pets too, especially those who are man’s best friend and who need to be walked every day, i.e. dogs.We need an anti-lockdown popular front, in which all who are against the lockdown set aside their differences and work together to remove it. But sadly that’s not going to happen.
SA. Thank you for your kind words, but I cannot claim courage as a quality really. I share almost all of your thoughts, in particular the truly bestial treatment of Corbyn. But perhaps we should not give up hope altogether for the perpetuity of that which is honourable, decent and loving in our species. It is a strand that has managed to survive through some terrible periods in the past, even though it never quite triumphs over ‘evil’. Such things are beyond our knowledge I suppose, but I am curiously reminded of that Tolkien quote, in Lord of the Rings!
“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
“So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”N_
Please be more discriminating. The virus and its effects are real. The handling of the crisis is so politically skewed and perhaps purposefully incompetent. This give you the choice to either side with the incompetent government, or side with the incompetent government.Steph, I think the difference between us may be that I have realised how easily we could win, and I have suspicions about how badly we could lose. Bad news first…
What if covid-19 does not impart immunity, but does decrease IQ by 10% each time one gets infected, or decreases sperm count by 50% each time one gets infected, or ages the heart, immune system, or other organ or system 10% each time one gets infected? What would such attrition do to humanity?
Good news – all we need is unity. If everyone in the world took three weeks’ supplies and self-isolated strictly for three weeks, at the end the world would be free of covid-19. Deprive it of hosts and it will die. Impractical, right? But what if we did the same thing zone by zone, district by district, county by county, country by country?
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/green-zones
Dare to hope, Steph!
N_, stop being so paranoid. It’s not a conspiracy. The right are doing exactly what political theory predicts they will do; scrambling frantically and counter-productively to (1) preserve the profit-making system and (2) drop enormous wodges of money in their own and their allies’ pockets.
New Zealand just elected a Labour government, with an overall majority – an unprecedented victory under their proportional representation system. All over the world, the right is invalidating its own arguments.
Steph, I remeber something else from Gandalf:
– “You cannot pass….I am a servant of the Secret Fire, wielder of the flame of Anor. You cannot pass. The dark fire will not avail you, flame of Udûn. Go back to the Shadow! You cannot pass.”
Hahaha! Yep, we definitely need a Gandalf thats for sure. But then again, would Gandalf have told everyone to hide in their hobbit holes until Sauron simply snuffed it? It doesn’t seem quite like him somehow!
Your link was interesting, thank you. But I am still left with the feeling that we haven’t got a clue what to do really. There are just too many unknowns, both scientific and human, and in the meantime Rome burns.“What if covid-19 does not impart immunity, but does decrease IQ by 10% each time one gets infected, or decreases sperm count by 50% each time one gets infected, or ages the heart, immune system, or other organ or system 10% each time one gets infected? What would such attrition do to humanity?
Good news – all we need is unity. If everyone in the world took three weeks’ supplies and self-isolated strictly for three weeks, at the end the world would be free of covid-19. Deprive it of hosts and it will die. Impractical, right? But what if we did the same thing zone by zone, district by district, county by county, country by country?”
This is made up gibberish.
You don’t get to choose with a virus.
If you believe for a single second that masks, pretend (meaningless)distancing, or healthy people locking themselves up and consequently making themselves more susceptible to each and every virus is a healthy option i would have to assume you were insane.
Has the economy been flattened enough yet?
What SARS-CoV2 and lockdown dreams have people been having?
(@Tatyana – any idea about this one? It might connect with Russian dream lore.)
The other night I had a dream featuring a man wearing a black Venetian “plague doctor” mask over his face and a red turban-cum-fez get-up on his head. I associated his headgear with Sephardic Jewish priestly costume, namely that of the kohanim. He was trying to get a message across to the platform at a public meeting in Moscow. The crowd did NOT like him one bit. I am not sure what his message actually was, but it wasn’t going down well with people. It was something to do with the epidemic.
Interpretations?
nothinguptop
You ask “Has the economy been flattened enough yet?” as if the primary reason behind actions to overcome the virus is to harm the economy. To convince and to not be seen to be in LaLa land, with disjointed logic, it would be useful to argue why you think that a conspiracy to flatten the economy is good for anyone, let alone such disparate administartions as China, Korea US UK and so on.
A possibly encouraging study from UKIC/PHE that relates to Mike Yeadon’s T-cell mediated immunity claim.
Cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 found at six months in non-hospitalised individuals:
https://www.uk-cic.org/news/cellular-immunity-sars-cov-2-found-six-months-non-hospitalised-individuals
(Please note, this paper is a pre-print reporting preliminary data that has not yet been peer-reviewed.)This has hit the media today. Whilst it is encouraging it should be noted that it is NOT definitive evidence of T-cell mediated immunity. Prof Moss, one of the authors has said:
“I think this data is reassuring, potentially even encouraging, but it does not mean that people cannot get re-infected.”
He added that large-scale population studies are needed to show how the antibody and cellular profiles can act together and protect people over time.
“This cannot be taken as confirmation of an immunity passport. Absolutely cannot do that”
Prof Eleanor Riley, Professor of Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Edinburgh said immunity is a functional term that implies resistance to infection, and this she says, has not been directly shown in this study.
“Determining whether these T cell responses are protective against reinfection would require either an experimental infection study (such studies are under active discussion) or a very large, long term study to assess the frequency of reinfection in people whose T cell responses have been measured.
“Given the apparently very low incidence of reinfections at the current time, such a study would not currently be a high priority.”
Cautious optimism is in order. I think Mike Yeadon is being overly optimistic in claiming studies demonstrating T-cell reactivity to Sars-Cov-2 is evidence of immunity. It might be but then again it might not and has yet to be proven. The 30% cross immunity from other corona viruses is even more optimistic.
SA
Reread it and what I was replying to.
Let me know if you still don’t understand the relevance.You’ll kick yourself when you realise, so best to avoid disjointed logic.
I’m going to look up your conspiracy theory and wonder if there just might be something in it?I will come back to you later. But meanwhile can I ask if you are our old friend Node? It would be nice to know.
nothinguptop
I have not heard from you and will work on the assumption that you are Node, unless yo answer to the contrary.
Yes I understand you were commenting on what Clark stated, but will leave it to him to address your comments to him.Whether there is solid protective and lasting immunity, is something that has not been demonstrated yet, but there are preliminary findings, such as the comment by E.T. above which are hopeful. As to effects on other organs, my belief is that it is minimal, the major effect being on the respiratory tract. Other effects are probably should be taken as complications of being seriously ill and nursed in ITU. Some immunological effects may also extend to other organs and some long term general unwellness ‘Long Covid’ may also ensue, but this is all under investigation. I have seen no evidence that it affects IQ or fertility.
Now you make this statement:
“If you believe for a single second that masks, pretend (meaningless)distancing, or healthy people locking themselves up and consequently making themselves more susceptible to each and every virus is a healthy option i would have to assume you were insane.”
This statement has some truth but mixed with others that I do not agree with. There is evidence that face masks and distancing and isolation do have an effect on the spread of the virus. There is ample evidence simply by examining the effect that these measures had in suppressing the first wave. But I agree with you in so much that the isolation procedures were not properly done. Self isolating at home with your family when you have symptoms, and when testing was not widely available, meant that homes became breeding grounds for virus multiplication within families. Proper enforced isolation, as was done in China and elsewhere was more effective, and as a result the virus is suppressed in China and some other places, but not in Europe and US, because governments will not allow proper isolation, which also require facilities run by the state, which has never happened here.
But then you make a truly odd statement“Has the economy been flattened enough yet?”
Which is what I commented on. You are implying that that was the primary reason for the lockdown, flattening the economy, and that is odd.
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