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E.T.
This of course makes sense, the more people are infected, the more chance of a mutation. You could argue that other factors may also come to play as the US for example has a higher infection and death rates per population but no mutations yet to this scale. It could of course also be a function of population density and infection and death rate, but I am not sure whether those would not also be a function of the total population.
The other extremely worrying development which seems to have been contained for the moment, is the outbreak in mink in Denmark as an escape to another host indicates also mutations that allow this to happen, and that such adaptations can also occur to pets and other farmed animals and wildlife.
The original ‘herd immunity’ model that was briefly flirted with and criticized has I think remained the essential policy of this government and at no stage was there a policy of total suppression, merely flattening the curve, and even that was done incompletely and not for a sufficiently long period.Each person is at least slightly different, providing slightly different opportunities and challenges to the virus. Miserly and secretive to the people, the government gives information to the enemy as fast as health service capacity will permit.
Nature, 25 June 2020. Note the front cover. Ostensibly about a breakthrough in treatment for Parkinson’s disease, but an interesting choice of double entendre to blazon across the front cover in the middle of this pandemic.
ET – “The original ‘herd immunity’ model that was briefly flirted with and criticized has I think remained the essential policy of this government…”
That could explain why the government has been so insistent about keeping schools not just open but fully occupied. Starmer supports this; that’s the real reason he sacked Long-Bailey.
– “When COVID-19 is no longer being transmitted within a community, schools can begin to reopen safely. It is not safe to reopen schools for in-person schooling while community transmission is still present.”
[many examples…]
– “See a spreadsheet which details more than 400 articles about Covid-19-related school closures, cases, and deaths in the K-12 school system in the US (as of 14 Aug. 2020).”/em>
Regarding the “discovery” of the “second new variant” of SARS… From British regime media: “(Health secretary) Mr Hancock said: ‘We are incredibly grateful to the South African government for the rigour of their science and the openness and the transparency with which they have rightly acted as we did when we discovered a new variant here.’ ”
He’s basically saying “Well done, darkies! And maybe a few voortrekkers too. You’re almost as good as us Brits. Keep it up. There’ll probably be one of you lot playing in an orchestra or working at a stock exchange in a few years’ time. For the time being, have a biscuit. You’ve earned it.”
What a patronising imperialist c***!
Who the f*** is a fly-by-night politician idiot in Britain, even if he did go to private school, Oxford, and Cambridge, to congratulate another country on its “rigour”, “openness”, and “transparency”, and the “rightness” of its actions?
Have a happy Christmas and a greta new year all.
Thanks ET; Merry Christmas to you too, and to everyone.
Seasonal greetings everyone.
[ Mod: transferred from the “Fake Political and Media Class” BTL comment thread … ]
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slightly O/T but topical due to the ongoing pandemic.
Switzerland declared a retrospective quarantine for all UK and SA tourists visiting ski resorts. Out of 420 identified UK residents, some 50 left instantly and by the weekend only 12 of the 470 left were still present, you could call them real skiers, but the vast majority of these quick fix skiing tourist, no doubt not packet tour aspirants, but fairly well off, had no compulsion to commit themselves to a quarantine.These are the people who originally spread the virus around the world, with international air travel, and they are the one’s least complying.
That is one reason why bungling Johnson will never get a grip on this health crisis. Its in German, sorry. Any queries, just ask.Hello Nevermind, good to see you. Yes, even back in March it was obviously the Frequent Fliers who were spreading it around the world. A host of celebrities, politicians and sport stars were reported to have it weeks before I heard any personal reports, and even then it was the Murrays :/
Those tourists presumably thought they might be infected, or why scarper so quick? I can’t think of anywhere better to be quarantined than Switzerland.
Viruses are always mutating, its how they survive, and nothing to be alarmed about, as the mutations may be more infectious but less serious health wise. Rather than try and suppress a virus with counter-productive restrictions, for political reasons, promote as opposed supress the cures.
“Viruses are always mutating, its how they survive, and nothing to be alarmed about, as the mutations may be more infectious but less serious health wise.”
Or mutations could lead to more virulence and less infectious, or more virulent AND more infectious or less virulent AND less infectious. It’s random, we can’t know until it occurs. Each infected human is an experimental petri dish, the more infections the more likely a mutation.
“promote cures”
What would they be? There are very few effective anti viral treatments for any virus. There are treatments to ameliorate symptoms and supportive measures but no real cures in the same way as antibiotics kill bacteria.
The reason we can assume viruses are mostly not deadly, except for the vulnerable ill, is because humanity is still here to tell the tale. 1000s of viruses survive, throughout the ages, because killing the host is self-defeating, so they don’t, they need us to live so they can too.
The “cures”! Humanity survives because of our immune systems and so a cure is to find ways to strengthen our immune systems, with healthy eating, exercise and socialising in the sunshine to grow Vitamin D, all things we are being ordered not to do. The government restrictions are the opposite to what’s needed. And therapeutics help us recover from illness, whereas vaccines rest on an assumption that all the rest can be avoided with a preventative magic jab.
But surely almost anything can count as an 95% effective vaccine when the mortality rate for a particular virus is less than 0.07%, but for whatever reason the government proscribes expensive medication rather than cheap and generic alternatives and good health care.
Dave you make a lot of assumptions. Let me start with the most glaringly obvious one:
“But surely almost anything can count as an 95% effective vaccine when the mortality rate for a particular virus is less than 0.07%,…”
I have not seen this claim substantiated anywhere. The mortality of this virus is between 1.5, and 0.5% never seen such a low figure. It is also very variable and age and country dependent. In any case it is not just about mortality is it? Shall we ignore the 5% of those who get it who have severe illness and are admitted to intensive care, or the 20% who get milder symptoms and who are either debilitated or self isolate to prevent more people being infected. The high infectivity of the virus is what the vaccine is measured by not the mortality rate.
“…..ways to strengthen our immune systems, with healthy eating, exercise and socialising in the sunshine to grow Vitamin D,”
For an effect on good diet on the immune system you have to really be malnourished. The average citizen of the west will barely suffer such a degree of malnutrition as would affect their anti-viral immunity. The major effects of exercise and a healthy balanced diet are on such things as lifestyle illnesses including obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure and heart disease. Socialising is good for mental health but not during a highly contagious pandemic.
“…..whereas vaccines rest on an assumption that all the rest can be avoided with a preventative magic jab.”
It is not a magic jab it is a very carefully manufactured vaccine which produces antibodies against the virus and thereby reduces the number of individuals susceptible to the virus. The good diet and the vaccine are additive and the one does not exclude the other.
I agree that a virus mutation can mean that the virus is adapting to its new host in which case it may well cause it to become less deadly in time. To me at the moment the main significance of the mutation is that it is a measure of failure of the government policy of lockdown, i.e. that the lockdown is either not being observed or is poorly implemented. After all, the measures were designed against a highly contagious agent, and if it is more contagious it means that the measures were not severe enough.– “Rather than try and suppress a virus…”
Oh go isolate and infect yourself with smallpox. Yeah, disease is great because it’s “natural”; just let all the diseases run riot.
Rational commenters, please note that Dave is a raving conspiracy theorist; any rationality you attempt to contribute will be entirely wasted.
Bring Back Bubonic is what I say. The world has never been the same. And let’s have leprosy, and polio. C’mon, more disease please!
And in case Dave has not noticed:
https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=london+hospitals&FORM=HDRSC6“Bring Back Bubonic…………”
Occasional outbreaks do still occur……fortunately relatively easily treated with antibiotics.
“any rationality you attempt to contribute……….”
I didn’t reply because of this but here goes.
Unless one is deficient in a particular vitamin, electrolyte or trace element because of dietary deficiency or something interfering with it’s method of absorption (Vit B12) then extra supplementation has NEVER been shown to improve health outcomes in a double blind controlled trial. You will just excrete what isn’t required to top up bodily stores. If your diet is reasonable that should not happen. Vit D deficiency is endemic in north west Europe because of the lack of winter sun but even so most make up for that with diet. If you want to waste your money on ridiculously priced supplements, go right ahead whilst remembering that the supplement/health food industry is almost as bad as big pharma. See Ben Goldacre’s “Bad Science” and “Bad Pharma.”All that can be said is that eating a balanced diet, moderate amounts of meat/fish and plenty of fresh vegetables and fruits, moderate alcohol intake and not smoking MAY extend your lifespan. No guarantees.
“The reason we can assume viruses are mostly not deadly, except for the vulnerable ill……….”
Every now and then something like 1918 flu comes along and takes out the healthy younger population. It was the second year of that pandemic that killed younger healthy people. We don’t know what is going to happen with Sars-Cov-2 yet so it makes sense to avoid getting it.
I wonder would people be so willing to discount vaccines if we were in the same conditions as 100 years ago. Polio, TB, bacterial infections and so on. The impact of infectious disease escapes notice but it is still a fair chunk of deaths globally.
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death“Bad Science” the 2 was meant to be quotation marks. [ Mod: Fixed. ] He did do a follow up book called “I Think You’ll Find It’s a Bit More Complicated Than That” which further illustrates the bullshit employed by the dietary supplement/health food/super food industry indulges in.
Dave, I know it’s wasted on you but as the discussion appears in public…
– “when the mortality rate for a particular virus is less than 0.07%…”
That’s false, but if it were true, 0.07% of the UK’s 67 million is nearly 47,000 people. But around two thirds of those needing critical care survive, so without “unnatural”, hospital care covid-19’s death rate would be about three times higher.
You seem to have misunderstood the problem. Without social restraint, covid-19 spreads very fast, far faster than hospitals can treat and discharge those needing care. With the hospitals stuffed full, what happens to the majority of those who get ill but can’t get into hospital? They suffocate slowly, over the course of days.
Fine, let’m; they were old and ill anyway. That don’t make me a fascist or nothin’.
– “…the supplement/health food industry is almost as bad as big pharma”
…and are wholly-owned subsidiaries of big pharma in many cases. After all, they’re both pill merchants.
Chinese citizen journalist Zhang Zhan jailed for reporting on early COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan
“A former lawyer, Ms. Zhang arrived in Wuhan on February 1 from her home in Shanghai. Her short video clips uploaded to YouTube consist of interviews with residents, commentary and footage of a crematorium, train stations, hospitals and the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” — Reuters
“A former lawyer, Zhang Zhan had been detained for seven months before she was sentenced on Monday by the Shanghai Pudong People’s Court. She was accused of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble,” a vaguely-defined charge that #Beijing often uses to silence critics.”
@WilliamYang120
“At least three other citizen journalists, Chen Qiushi, Fang Bin and Li Zehua, have disappeared from public view after documenting the situation in Wuhan.”
– – – – – – – –In China, the authorities tried to pretend there was no epidemic. Here, conspiracy theorists luxuriate in their freedom to pretend that there’s no pandemic, and actually believe that they’re providing an heroic service to the poor, deluded sheeple.
The ‘COVID deniers’ are fixated on mortality rates without properly understanding the disease and ignoring all the morbidity and sequelae. Sadly there are websites that continue to regurgitate the sort of nonsense that Dave does here.
Interestingly when Steph refereed to the supposed unreliability of the PCR and other doubts, she quoted the WHO warning which later I found was the subject of a whole article on that website.
By the way, what happened to Duck?Any mortality figure would be higher without treatment but the less than 0.07% figure is based on 50,000 deaths in a population of 68m. Less than 0.07% because the official figures conflate died FROM and died WITH including those dying for whatever reason within 28 days of testing Positive (includes False Positives).
This means anything could be taken and described as a vaccine, such as sherbet lemons, because how would you know otherwise when the risk is so small and even smaller for those under 70? Therefore to roll out an expensive vaccine, medication with side effects, for an entire population is profitably excessive for some, but potentially deadly for the elderly, who have weakened immune systems, due to the side effects.
There are 1000s of experts who challenge the best medical expert advice money can buy, which the official conspiracy theorists and apologists on this site dismiss, with unscientific claims about suppressing rather than building immunity to a seasonal ‘flu’ virus.
“Any mortality figure would be higher without treatment but the less than 0.07% figure is based on 50,000 deaths in a population of 68m. Less than 0.07% because the official figures conflate died FROM and died WITH including those dying for whatever reason within 28 days of testing Positive (includes False Positives).”
Dave are you being serious or just disingenuous? Your figures are totally fallacious. The population of the UK is just under 68 million and increases at an annual rate of 0.53% per year. So the population increase is about 1000 per day. The number of people testing positive for SARS Cov-2 currently is 30,000+ per day. Therefore you cannot really take 68 million as a denominator for the mortality rate. That is just so obvious it does not really need explaining further.
The argument about dying with or because of covid-19 has also been discussed in this thread and you can go back and look. Also the number of false positive is as near zero as you can get, and this has also been argued above.
Now beyond that you have lost me. If we are to have a rational discussion then I will engage with you, but if we are into the fantasy world of likening vaccines to sherbet, then I concede defeat!
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