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Why stop at 68 million? Using Dave’s method, we can reduce the “mortality rate” to a lot less than 0.07%. The total covid-19 deaths reported by China (population 1.44 billion) is 4,634, giving a “mortality rate” of 0.00032%, a two-hundredth of Dave’s inflated figure. Come to that, there must have been a time when only one person in the whole world (population 7.6 billion) had died from covid-19, yielding a “mortality rate” of 0.000000013%; Dave’s has exaggerated the figure a whopping five million times!
Dave, you shilling for the PTB? Forget it, I ain’t no sheeple.
Dave, please explain to me. If PCR produces mostly false positives, how does the number of positive tests predict the death rate two to three weeks later? You can see this effect in countless graphs, all linked from this page.
Maybe no one warned you, but something like thermodynamics applies to thinking. If we consider some construction eg. a pocket watch or a brick wall, random changes to it are far more likely to degrade its function than to enhance it. Basically, there’s only one way for it to be a watch or a wall, and an infinite number of ways it can cease to be one. Same goes for thinking; there’s really only one way of being right, and infinite ways to be wrong.
Now you can surf around the Internet collecting snippets that look like pocket watch parts – this seems like a face, these are clearly cogs, this must be the balance spring – and you might even be able to assemble them into something resembling a pocket watch, but will it match reality ie. tell the right time?
In fairness to Dave, deaths/population is a figure used usually multiplied by a factor to get deaths/1000/100000/1M population but lets us use it in it’s proper context by comparing the same figure for all deaths or more correctly the crude death rate.
Using figures from the PHE dashboard “all deaths data” page (bottom right) they give deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by area which added gives us 79349 total deaths thus defined for the whole UK. Deaths/population x1000 gives 1.16 covid deaths/1000 population.
Using ONS all deaths figures from 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales, using nrscotland, 58.108 in Scotland in 2019 and 15,758 in N.Ireland from NISRA giving a total 604,707 UK deaths. Using the same calculation the crude death rate is 8.89/1000 population.(I used 68M as the population denominator in both instances).
We now have two comparable figures. Covid at 1.16/1000 population and crude death rate at 8.89/1000 population. It doesn’t appear nearly so trivial now when used in context and compared to the crude death rate/1000 population.I had to use 2019 figures for crude death rate obviously because all 2020 data isn’t available yet.
@Dave
The deaths from covid are defined as”total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes.” There is no reference to positive tests. See the earlier discussion in this thread about death certification.The UK population in 2019 was not 68M but 66.4M. Using the correct figure would give a slightly higher crude death rate at approx 9.1 deaths/1000 population. I think the point still stands however.
If you have a national response to a problem you need to calculate nationally. If you want to be more specific, more specific figures and solutions are appropriate.
The majority of covid-related cases are in hospitals and care homes and mostly defined by age. Therefore improving hospitals and care homes to mitigate this virus, and all other causes of death, makes medical sense, but ordering all the healthy population to self-isolate makes no medical or economic sense and so is vastly disproportionate to the problem, hence why there is a political rather than medical agenda behind the unprecedented restrictions.
But as usual the fake-left are unmasked by their support for austerity on steroids for the many on behalf of the 1%.
Dave
I am not sure you understand what a contagious disease is. Also you seem to ignore that many more people including young ones get very ill and require hospital facilities that cannot just be expanded overnight and are now at capacity. To give a sort of rather imperfect analogy, if you have leaking mains you direct your energy into stopping the leak not to building larger soakaways.“Dave, please explain to me. If PCR produces mostly false positives, how does the number of positive tests predict the death rate two to three weeks later? You can see this effect in countless graphs”
That is completely false, you would hope it were the case but it isn’t
Just another indicator of fake stats
The graphs you posted to prove your argument Charlie actually disprove your argument. Increase in infection rate clearly leads a little later to increased deaths. It is especially evident in the late Sept to Dec parts of the graphs.
There was much less capacity for testing in March but a number of studies in different countries showed that approx 1 in 10 cases (give or take) were identified then so increase the infection rates by 10. Also testing didn’t really get going until after the deaths began so you are not going to see the lag so much. There are many other country’s graphs you could also look at. Also, the treatments have improved so there are fewer deaths overall compared to April. If you look at the latter 4 months of the year you can see the rising infections corresponding with rising deaths a little later, a dip in infection rates corresponding with a dip in deaths followed by a rise in both again. I cannot understand how anyone can look at those graphs and not come to the same conclusion.An article here gives an idea of the timeline.
The false positive rate of PCR is near zero. There is no data I have seen to show otherwise and if Charlie or Dave or Duck have data to show otherwise please show us.
London hospitals now setting up triage tents in their car parks.
All respiratory viruses must be infectious to varying degrees otherwise they wouldn’t survive, but that doesn’t make them deadly, particularly the coronavirus, which is mostly milder than the ‘flu’, and calling it a novel (new) virus and a novel-novel (mutation) virus is alarmism because viruses are mutating all the time.
The question remains can our immune systems deal with them and they mostly do. Therapeutics and good health help ill people recover, but vaccines are of little practical benefit when the mortality rate is so low, and counter-productive due to over-use and side-effects.
However a genuine, rather than expensive snake-oil, vaccine can be a benefit for different conditions if used sensibly on vulnerable groups, but again giving elderly people already on various medication and health problems more medication has its own dangers.
And the the PCR False Positives, which the government deliberately includes in the published figures, is easily web-searched
.@ Clark “London hospitals now setting up triage tents in their car parks”.
Yes we’re getting a re-run of the first charade, like the mostly empty Nightingale hospitals and mortuary tents, and now mass-testing as the window dressing for a contrived crisis, making out the window dressing is evidence rather than a smokescreen for a heist.
The ruling class are having to double-down because Trump is fighting back against ‘pandemic’ assisted election fraud, and so the communist ban on political gatherings aka social distancing rules can be extended, but it looks like Trump will get his 2nd term.
Neither “fake stats” nor PCR false positives could overwhelm hospitals.
The day before yesterday Cardiff NHS had to ask on Twitter for medical students to come and work at the hospitals. Yesterday Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Woolwich declared a “major incident” due to covid, oxygen supply insufficient, and King’s College Hospital, South London put out a message to all staff, “major incident escalation: all staff asked to return to work if possible”. Official figures now show more people in hospital than in the March-April peak. The number in hospital in London rose from around 4000 on the 24th to 5000 on the 28th. One month ago NHS London expected to need 3000 beds for covid in worst case projection by end of year. They were at 5000 yesterday with three days to go.
Dr Samantha Batt-Rawden @sbattrawden – yesterday
– “When staff have spoken up on Twitter they have been told this is all a hoax. It’s not. Try holding an iPad for a patient to say goodbye to their family. Or having to ventilate a colleague. This is real & happening right now. Staff are broken and need support now more than ever.
– Hello, I run a network for 46k doctors. Things are really bad on the frontline and NHS doctors need help getting the word out. If you support the NHS would you tweet this to your followers so I can help get out what is happening on the ground?”
– – – – – – – –
I personally have a friend in hospital since last night. She had been feeling increasingly poorly over the last few days. The NHS 111 telephone service had been overwhelmed, and didn’t manage to provide any advice until yesterday afternoon. The advice, when it came, was to go to hospital. There, low oxygen saturation in her bloodstream was measured; she was taken in and put on oxygen support, so I hope very much that supply meets demand. This afternoon she and her husband were awaiting the results of last night’s PCR swab test.
As you might guess, I’m pretty pissed off with conspiracy theorists right now. Go look at some hospitals’, doctors’ and nurses’ accounts on Twitter and Facebook; “you have the Internet now; do your own research” as you are apt to tell others. You think these are all fake accounts? Fake stats and fake tests do not make people go to hospital, but thousands more people are going to hospital. Fake stats and fake tests cannot put huge peaks in the “deaths from all causes” graphs, but those graphs have huge peaks in them. It is time to say “sorry, we were wrong, we’ll think again.”
The Nightingale hospitals were a vanity project from the start; a show, a riposte to China for building a new hospital in under a fortnight. China, with a population of 1.4 billion, could call a few staff from all over that massive country to run that new hospital, whereas the UK could not. Hospitals can be built in weeks but doctors and nurses need to be trained which takes years.
China also imposed travel restrictions, thereby containing their epidemic, leaving medical staff free to attend the major outbreaks. The UK didn’t even close its borders during the stay-at-home restrictions in Spring. That’s the UK Tory party Brexit faction, elected on a “control our borders” mandate, didn’t close the borders. We already knew because South Korea, who did massive testing and tracing from the start, told the world in mid March that there were more cases coming in through the airports than there was domestic transmission.
– “Yes we’re getting a re-run of the first charade”
That’s right Dave; doctors and nurses are the bad guys, and Trump, who excluded the poor from healthcare, is Our Saviour. Trump, FFS! A property developer and ex game show host, with connections to the New York mob! This is whose word you take over thousands of doctors and nurses who, you claim, set up fake triage tents in hospital car parks as a favour to the “ruling class” – the same ruling class that has degraded their pay, conditions and facilities for decades!
Steph, won’t you please leap in and congratulate Dave on his “very good points”?
I think Dave is living in a parallel universe. Communists in U.K. and USA?
And Dave once and for all please post a link showing high false positives for PCR, just one.
– “the mortality rate is so low…”
Diamond Princess cruise ship, where everyone aboard was tested multiple times, and everyone has either recovered or died:
Total cases: 712. Total deaths: 13. IFR = 13 / 712 x 100 = over 1.8%.
Milder than the ‘flu, huh? “Just a coronavirus” huh? SARS and MERS are coronaviruses, 9.5% and 35% fatality rates respectively. COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2, so named for the similarity of its spike protein to SARS.
Try getting your facts right Dave; you’ve nothing useful to add unless you do.
Except the shroud waving isn’t born out by facts. The Daily Mail dutifully publishes the official narrative, but due to a very large middle-class readership, it also has to tell the truth or suffer the same fate as the Ministry of Truth, hence very good articles from genuine experts like Dr John Lee and many graphs (today) showing the true, lesser, situation now compared to April.
I use the term communist to describe a dictatorial few who rule in the name of the many, who employ black is white and double-speak as a weapon to divide and rule the people, to maintain their own privilege.
I’m sure there are people who believe utopian creeds, but in the real world the 1% represent their own ethnic, religious or economic interest first, and to repel the populists this ‘western’ ruling class has formed an alliance with the Chinese communists.
Hence the use of a virus to imprison a nation to suppress populism. They got rid of Corbyn, but not Trump (yet) and not Brexit at least for 5 years, (albeit I supported a compromise).
Less than 1% of people who are said to have died from Covid in the UK, died in an ICU Unit (ICNARC)
Why do you suppose that is? It wasn’t because they were full or any way near.
Perhaps they were going to die anyway and nothing could be done to save them or an ICU would have been of no help?
“And the the PCR False Positives, which the government deliberately includes in the published figures…”
Some data uses deaths within 28 days of a positive test by date of test or death but the ONS data (which has higher overall figures than those referenced to positive tests) uses death certificates and makes no reference to positive tests at all. There are other data sets.
“is easily web-searched”
As is the counter argument. However, I think argument is entirely lost on you because you have chosen to believe what you want to believe whether facts support your belief or not.
“Less than 1% of people who are said to have died from Covid in the UK, died in an ICU Unit (ICNARC)”
Can you please point to the specific page where that is stated?
“Why do you suppose that is? It wasn’t because they were full or any way near.”
Check the chart on page 16 of that .pdf ICNARC document showing “Admissions to critical care – COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 for each month over the past five years.”
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/4ac72922-f345-eb11-912d-00505601089bThe WHO has issued an appeal about to draw to the fact that there is an infidemic, a tsunami of information, some well informed and accurate but also with a lot of misinformation and deliberate disinformation.
https://www.who.int/news/item/11-12-2020-call-for-action-managing-the-infodemicI also find the non COVID related part of Dave’ above post rather amusing detachment from reality. Corbyn and Trump connected exactly in what way? Then the West in collusion with ‘communist China’. Really Dave the two have gone in entirely separate ways in dealing with the epidemic and actually the more repressive Chinese communist approach worked better than the completely profit driven individualistic western one and we can all see the consequences. Ah I forgot, Dave doesn’t see the consequences, because it is all make believe. This is deliberate misinformation.
Dave I repeat my challenge, please post a link where the accuracy of the PCR and high false positive rates are scientifically discussed.@ SA.
I’m surprised you want me to hold your hand and provide an easily available link but to avoid it becoming an obsession here’s one, https://thecritic.co.uk/matt-hancock-obstinate-or-innumerate/
So you’re saying the 1000s of experts who have signed the Great Barrington Declaration are spreading disinformation? Another communist term that was used in the Soviet Union!
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