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The trouble with Iain Davis’ “absolute risk reduction” is small sample size, monitored for a short time period. For instance, if we observe a sample of 50,000 people for six months, probably none of them will be killed by traffic collisions, so we therefore conclude that all road and vehicle safety features, traffic law and enforcement are unnecessary, an impediment to freedom and a waste of effort.
Iain Davis’ article primarily serves to provide confirmation bias for those who already accept some covid-19 conspiracy theory, eg:
– “It should also be noted that these figures suggest the threat from COVID 19 is vanishingly small.”
But we know that covid-19 has killed tens of thousands of people in the UK alone and overwhelmed the health service, so the above statement can be interpreted two ways. It could be showing that Iain Davis is misinterpreting the figures. But for those who already accept the conspiracy theory, and worse, for those who are considering giving it credence, it can supply false confirmation for all the rest of it, ie. that there’s no crisis, the mortality figures are an artefact from stupid, supine doctors sheepishly following government instructions to misclassify cause of death, it’s really just a common cold being blown out of proportion by the “MSM” so that Bill Gates can sell vaccines, etc. etc. etc.
The human mind is highly susceptible to conspiracy theory because we are social animals and capable of deception and manipulation, so we have developed a “malicious agent spotter”, just like our “face and object spotter” sees patterns in clouds, or genitals on irregular carrots.
Node, you’re absolutely right; it would be very rude of me to laugh at you and call you a fool, even if you insist that this really is a penis on this carrot.
It’s your responsibility to check your own thinking for common thinking errors. It’s your responsibility to check articles and sites for their veracity. The alternative is the old, pre-Internet ways of gate-keeping and censorship, because lives are at stake, so we should all start taking responsibility.
Guardian – Michael Gove:
“We can’t predict with certainty that we’ll be able to lift restrictions the week commencing the 15 to 22 [February]. What we will be doing is everything we can to make sure that as many people as possible are vaccinated so that we can begin progressively to lift restrictions.” [Emphasis added.]
So it doesn’t matter if “cases” and “deaths” fall to zero, and he’s forgetting that there was just a holiday called “Christmas” too, and that China defeated SARSCov2 without a vaccine. None of that matters. Gove is explicitly linking the lifting of “restrictions” to prior mass vaccination. That’s the line now.
Next PM? Gove or Hunt. Johnson plays badly in Scotland and somebody in London will notice at some point. Gove, for those who don’t already know, is Scottish. Gove is also a raving Hun, having called Theresa May a “Catholic” because her father was a Church of England vicar. In fact Gove went further still and called her a “continuity Catholic”, which, for those who may not be familiar with Protestant sectarianism in Scotland, is a reference to the IRA. I wonder whether Gove has any evangelical money from the US behind him.
Dave, it seems to me that QAnon is eating away your mind; claim it back!
You do realise that Trump has B52s circling Iran, and he sacked and replaced the chief of nuclear weapons deployment for some reason, so those B52s quite likely have nuclear cruise missiles aboard? Those B52s have already provided backup for Israel’s latest murder of a top Iranian nuclear scientist.
Trump really isn’t what you think; he’s just a liar who knows how to exploit the human weakness for conspiracy theory. He promised you he’d reveal who dynamited the Twin Towers, didn’t he? Did he ever make good on that? He knows the damn things just collapsed, and he calls Larry Silverstein “my good friend”.
N_ – “China defeated SARSCov2 without a vaccine”
Not exactly. China is running an ongoing successful campaign of track, trace and suppression, and has collaborated with Russia on vaccine development. But due to effective social restrictions (and the lack of human rights concern in imposing them), China has time for better vaccine testing.
The next few months will be interesting; can China’s social measures suppress the new variants, or will China rush to deploy vaccines too?
To be clear, my post of January 5, 2021 at 12:21 was addressed to SA.
Three articles relevant to subjects currently under discussion here:
– The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19: Nature.
– Natural herd immunity should not be used as a means of pandemic control: BMJ Blogs.
Both the above reference the resurgence of illness in Manaus, Brazil, despite indications that herd immunity from infection had been reached.
– COVID-vaccine results are on the way — and scientists’ concerns are growing: Nature.
Lots of good citations. Do we really need OffGuardian?
Node – “To be clear, my post of January 5, 2021 at 12:21 was addressed to SA.”
Tough.
Update on the situation where I live. Six positive test results have emerged late yesterday and overnight. The positive results are from a mixture of circumstances although, at the moment, there is no indication of any link to the two cases announced on New Year’s Eve. (The two I posted about earlier who had completed their 14 day self isolation and found to be positive on day 21) I know no more detail than that for now. One of the six most recent positive cases is again from an individual who had completed their 14 day period of self-isolation.
We have now had 3 people test positive beyond 14 day isolation. Prior to this we have had no community cases since May 20 2020 and the only positive tests were from people who had travelled off island and returned or came from elsewhere for (exempted) work purposes.
Given the very small numbers of cases here I think that 3 people testing positive after a 14 day isolation period is significant and points to a new and worrying development. I suspect this is also happening elsewhere and contributing to the ever increasing cases. I think it’s time to re-evaluate the self isolation duration. The government here is currently in a meeting to address this new situation.Thanks ET.
– “I think it’s time to re-evaluate the self isolation duration.”
Obviously, it needs to be increased to at least four weeks. Ongoing PCR monitoring should be implemented. And there should be proper quarantine rather than self isolation.
– “We have now had 3 people test positive beyond 14 day isolation.”
…and also three cases that so far are an absolute mystery. Both developments are extremely worrying.
Thanks for this; information from communities that we would expect to be protected by isolation is particularly valuable.
Up until Dec 23 anyone self isolating here had to have a test on day 7, since Dec 23 that has changed to day 1 and day 13. Self isolation meant you could not leave your house for any reason (excepting you got sick enough to require hospital admission) and anyone else in your household had to also self isolate for the same period. It was diligently followed and enforced. The numbers would have been small.
It seems Clark that our government has been reading your posts 🙂
From Wed midnight more or less full lockdown measures wll be implemented as they were in March. Social distancing, masks, closure of pubs restaurants etc, non essential business closed, no weddings or collective worship etc etc I think you get the picture.“We are moving to Level 5 of our borders framework. We strongly discourage any travel off island. If people do decide to travel after tonight, we cannot guarantee when they will be able to return.”
“Those who do return from one minute past midnight Wednesday night to Thursday morning – again just to be clear in just over 30 hours time – will be required to undergo a new testing regime. This will be three tests. One on day 1. Another on day 6 or 7. A third test on day 13. If people are not prepared to do this, they will have to self-isolate for 21 days.”
“Returnees will no longer be able to self-isolate with anyone other than those they have travelled with.”
There is a whole list of measures but pretty much full lockdown. What a bummer, we were doing so well. I think they will have to amend the self isolation period even with testing and I expect they will.
ET, the relative safety of your island is worth protecting. It was a Green Zone, now back to Red. I’m glad the action is fairly decisive, but isolation of 21 days leaves no margin, for 21 days was the period after which a positive test occurred; I’d prefer 28 days. I hope that with the other, general population measures, 21 day isolation will be enough. It is well worth enduring a short period of strong restrictions to get back to normal; I wish everyone there the very best.
I agree Clark, I was being somewhat tongue-in-cheek. I think they will have to look at the isolation period again though I don’t expect many want to travel anyway. We are still awaiting the variant analysis
– “What a bummer, we were doing so well”
You’re still doing well. I’m near Chelmsford where over 1% of the population are infected; in some nearby places it’s over 1.3%.
Some practical advice I just received…
The increased infectiousness of the new UK variant actually translates to a much smaller dose of viral particles being required to cause infection – droplets around a quarter of the mass compared with the earlier type. This means that they float in the air much more easily, for a longer time and can drift further – so the “2 metre social distancing” recommendation is no longer adequate.
Wear a mask anywhere there are people, even outdoors.
The disposable paper masks marked as “surgical grade” and available for instance at Tesco for around £5 for ten have been found in testing to be very nearly as effective as N95 masks. However, because the folds come into contact with each other if these masks are reused, they should only be used only once.
Sorry, I don’t yet have references for either of these claims, however my source has got almost everything right so far so I intend to follow this advice.
ET, another possibility that should be considered is that infection had been circulating unnoticed at a low level among the population on the island for some time, possibly introduced on an object, and the travellers actually picked it up after their period of self isolation – this would also be consistent with the three otherwise unexplained cases, especially if contact tracing shows no contact with the travellers.
If there is a more widespread outbreak, waste water testing could help to narrow down the search area, to help target testing of individuals.
FYI, ‘Dave’ posted a reply that had nothing to do with SARS-CoV-2 or any other infectious disease; instead it focused on Trump and the US election. Accordingly. it was off topic.
Unfortunately, unlike the main comments under Craig’s articles, the discussion forum software does not allow suspended messages – with mod annotations – to be viewable by their authors, so this needs to be a separate entry.
Dave, if you want to talk about something else, start another forum topic.
Thank you.
Anything is possible Clark though we had 7 months virus free until New Year’s Eve. If there were a low level of cases you’d have expected someone to show up symptomatic before now especially as we had no socal distancing and everything was open. Introduced via an imported surface is a possiblity I guess we shall have to wait and see what unfolds.
As to the new variant I can understand less viral load needed to infect causing more transmissability but wouldn’t the droplet production be subject to physics of the respiratory tract rather than a change in viral genome. As in a function of the mucous properties and hydrodynamics etc rather than the virus? Is the droplet mass going to change during a cough?Torygraph: National deficit in Britain to reach £450bn this year, or 21% of GDP? What, no “V”-shaped recovery after all, then? The pandemic is heaven not just for Big Pharma but for finance capital too. According to the Torygraph, financial markets are expecting a Bank of England rate cut later in 2021 to below 0% and “(b)anks have said such a move could force them to start charging for bank accounts.”
“Or else what?” is the question to ask.
This is debt begetting more debt. Yum yum say the banks. That’s the reason the government did a “Duke of York” with the universities, marching the students in and then marching them out again. What did that achieve? Well it achieved squillions of pounds’ worth of debt for 18-year-olds.
Moreover, when you come to think of it, “negative interest rates” may mean terribly fascinating think pieces for those few leftwingers who read the business pages, but the most salient aspect for most people may be precisely “you gotta pay now to have a current account”, plus indeed a fullblown “depositor levy” for those who still have a bit of money left. “It’s the pandemic, see.”
How long until the idea of a “recovery” bites the dust?
Clark and ET
I am not so sure about fomite transmission. The main source would be contaminated chilled food that is then not cooked before eating or contaminated handlers, according to the Cases reported in China which I posted above.
As to longer periods of isolation, I guess you would need more data before the policy is changed. The first two cases described are less worrying than the presumably unconnected 6 cases with no clear travel history or contacts from travellers.
I also thought that the new variant is more sticky and therefore causes infections at a lower level of exposure.To Mods. My deleted post about Trump was a one-off in response to a Post by Clark @ January 5, 2021 at 12:44#64355
He never mentioned the virus on that post, and I am contending the response to the virus is political rather than medical and used as a smokescreen to use election irregularities to topple Trump. So please restore my post as it answered Clark’s post.
“You can only leave your home to exercise, and not for the purpose of recreation or leisure (e.g. a picnic or a social meeting). This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.”
“You can exercise in a public outdoor place:
* by yourself
* with the people you live with
* in a childcare bubble where providing childcare
* or, when on your own, with 1 person from another household”This document uses “You should”, “You must”, and “You can only” without clarity. (Was the document cobbled together by a kid in the office, maybe someone in Whitehall’s poshie university pal or second cousin? Don’t ask them to write software documentation.) What is clear is that if you have a picnic, or meet two friends outside, or walk too far along urban streets, or are seen outside too often, or sit down for a breather when you’re out walking, the police have been told to clamp down on you and try to steal your money. Exactly when you would and when you wouldn’t be breaking the law, who knows? But who cares any more?
The rule on only being allowed to exercise outside once each day – and without any “recreation” or “leisure”, so make sure you don’t have a twinkle in your eyes above your mask – has absolutely nothing to do with public health. Nor does coronafascism as a whole. Next steps are being prepared and they will shock the sh*t out of most people. That includes many who post critical stuff to blogs.
If they want to stop me going for my daily walk, they’re going have to shoot or imprison me.
It’s as if they want everyone inside their houses, picking their mobile phones, eating crisps and necking booze until they risk bursting their guts or passing out, not daring to go for a walk because that would make them a public enemy, occasionally clapping on their doorstep for the Holy “NHS”, and not wanting to talk so much about “disappearances” or daring to criticise (or even name) fascism even in whatever illiterate muck they have been conditioned into monkey-typing on their stupid phones.
Big Pharma’sThe “vaccine minister” Nadhim Zahawi, currently the chief strategy officer of the oil company Gulf Keystone Petroleum International (as well as having many other business activities, and also being the co-founder and a former CEO of YouGov), says that children’s nurseries are “safe”. Must be a magic virus then, not to infect babies or be capable of being passed on by them. What garbage this guy talks.There is such a strong element now of saying “any old sh*t” because the success of the internet in degrading the culture has meant there’s no problem with the vast majority of the population believing it, or at least acting as if they do – and if you do that enough, you end up believing it.
Then there is the question of why parents who are locked down would want to send their babies to a nursery in the first place. Do their babies get in the way of their phone-picking?
N: “It’s as if they want everyone inside their houses[…]”
No, they just want to avoid overloading the health system – it really is that simple. Same behaviour is seen in pretty much every country, it’s not that much of a mystery.
Wonder what Mystic N_eg’s latest timeline is for mass starvation in the UK?
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