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Lockdowns aren’t effective against respiratory viruses either as they are microscopic and can be carried in the air and will eventually pass through the population. And even if you avoid one, another one will soon be along to get you.
When the mortality rate is so low, anything is 95% effective, because its impossible to prove otherwise. Something would need to be almost 100% effective to be noticeably effective.
ET
The basic knowledge is totally lacking and the repetition nature of the nonsense is such that I think Dave is a troll. I find no other explanation. He has repeated this nonsense so often now and then he will next turn to the communist governments in the west and how the sun shines out of Trump’s a**e.“Lockdowns aren’t effective against respiratory viruses either as they are microscopic and can be carried in the air and will eventually pass through the population.”
Any virus whose route of transmission includes the airborne route indeed does travel in the air but only to a certain extent. The bloke coughing his lungs up down the pub may well infect you in the enclosed space and indeed the virus may hang about suspended in the air for a while and move about in the air currents. The bloke 100 yards from you in the park coughing his lungs out is unlikely to infect you. A virus must have a host hence the lockdowns are designed to prevent transmission by limiting the chances you are in an enclosed space with someone who is infected. Viruses don’t Hang about indefinitely.
“And even if you avoid one, another one will soon be along to get you.”
Yeah, perhaps but hopefully it will have a lower mortality rate.
“When the mortality rate is so low………”
So low as to be equivalent to the leading cause of death (it is actually higher if you go to 3rd decimal place) and higher than any of the other leading causes of death? You are doing exactly the same thing you accuse the “covid propagandists” of doing. Can I call it denialist propaganda? Look at the numbers Dave here. You are stating that we should just let Sars-Cov-2 alone and get on with our lives because by Dave’s Mortality Rate the risk is trivial. Tell me, do you equally think that we should suspend all effort on managing dementia and alzheimers disease because the risk is the same as Sars-Cov-2?
@Mods
Thanks for cleaning up my mess of a post. Sorry to have caused you that extra work.@SA
I have my eyes wide open SA. Where I have the time I am still going to do my best to refute by argument what I see as wrong or manipulative. I may well tire of it eventually but I hope not. I may well get exasperated but I shall try not to be overwhelmed by that if it happens.ps. Bloody hell, the reCAPTCHA is out to get me. Now I have to play an audio clip and type in the words I hear, LMAO. Is Craig’s site really under that much pressure or are you folks having fun fiddling?
What lower than less than 0.07%? No I suggest spending to improve peoples lives, not torture as a cure, and with things that can help, bearing in mind the elderly will eventually die of something, and so therapeutics rather than “synthetic pathogens” dressed up as vaccines, with alarming side-effect reports from Norway, who have been ‘vaccinating’ the frail elderly.
Source Dave please.
Show me how you got to 0.07%. I did the calculation from all covid deaths in England, Wales, Scotland and N.Ireland as detailed in the relevant post. I contest the 0.07% figure and I ask you to show your derivation of it. What I suspect is the covid deaths from England and Wales alone are being used whilst the population figure of 68 million is taken from the UK as a whole but I could be wrong. Even if I were to accept the 0.07% Dave’s Mortality Rate 3 of the 5 leading causes of deaths in 2019 are less than that.
Just to say the England and Wales population in 2019 was 59,439,840 (from ONS) not 59,439,8400. If you are checking my calculations keep that in mind. It’s just a typo and clearly England and Wales don’t have almost 600 million population.
I’ve looked up latest figures showing UK population @ 68m and covid-related deaths @ 89,000. This gives a mortality figure for the entire population of 0.13% Its reasonable to give this figure as the ‘government’ want to vaccinate the entire population, multiple times. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
These figures are not exact, but its far LESS THAN 0.13% because this figure conflates died WITH and died FROM and counts deaths from all causes, run over by a bus, as covid, if within 28 days of a Positive (includes False Positives) test.
I think your giving a percentage of certain deaths as a percentage from all causes, but even if covid is high in the list, its still small as a percentage of deaths from all causes, and so a fixation on covid, resulting in the rest being downplayed, makes no medical sense and neither does banning the right of assembly, unless to serve another political agenda. STOP the STEAL!
If someone does not understand what a denominator is for calculating mortality figures then there is no hope of a fruitful conversation. What you need is a basic lesson in mathematics and logic.
Anyway this is turning into a fiasco and sadly Dave wins. Why because a decent discussion has now turned to repetitious and meaningless refutations of a robotic position which just keeps changing slightly in its parameters but without advance. This has ceased to be an intellectual discussion. And every single post in this forum apart from the initial two or three, is entirely off topic.Maybe the captcha should say: “I am not a troll”
– “counts deaths from all causes, run over by a bus, as covid, if within 28 days of a Positive (includes False Positives) test.”
Yeah but each person lives about 28,000 days, so the average chance of dying in the next 28 days is only 28 / 28,000, ie. about 1/1000th, so even if true it would barely make any difference anyway.
Steph also already worked this out on another thread. The maximum difference she came up with by a completely different method was 14% ie. about one seventh.
Dave, how long ago does your 0.07% figure refer to? ‘Cos I remember you arguing with me that 380 parts per million atmospheric CO2 concentration was trivial as the rising concentration passed 410PPM. You’re probably just out of date again; maybe you should work things out for yourself rather than believing stuff from whichever sources happen to reinforce whatever you already believe; that’s called confirmation bias:
– “Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one’s prior beliefs or values.[1] People tend to unconsciously select information that supports their views, but ignore non-supportive or contradicting information. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Everyone, including scientists and intelligent people, can be prone to confirmation bias. Confirmation bias cannot be eliminated entirely, but it can be managed, for example, by education and training in critical thinking skills.”
Covid might help kill off conspiracy theory. Last spring, in some places lots of people got infected and other places hardly any; after the first wave serology surveys indicated less than 6% had been infected at all. People who hadn’t encountered it could believe it was all a hoax, just something on TV and in the “news”.
The “news” is constantly full of “other people’s disasters”; I think people become inured to it. Additionally the scale of reproduction ranges from small to tiny; we are presented with other people and their suffering literally in miniature, often as little as 1/100th or even 1/10,000th scale; is it so surprising that many viewers often trivialise other people’s suffering?
But covid is touching more and more people’s lives now, and a greater and greater majority are telling the denialists to STFU; they’re understandably angry. Node sees this as conformity enforced by threat, but he lives way out in an area of low population density, mostly untouched by covid. So far.
Conspiracy theory might be telling us something about how people relate to news. We use the same media to obtain fiction and non-fiction; there’s massive overlap in the production of each, and even some deliberate cheating. And mostly, “news” shows us something happening far, far away (just like the intro to a fairy tale). But covid will bring it to a friend or relative near you (as they say in the adverts).
Sorry to say, but humanity needs the lessons covid is bringing us.
Hello Kempe, I haven’t seen you for ages. How are you?
@ Clark – “counts deaths from all causes, run over by a bus, as covid, if within 28 days of a Positive (includes False Positives) test.”
Yeah but each person lives about 28,000 days, so the average chance of dying in the next 28 days is only 28 / 28,000, ie. about 1/1000th, so even if true it would barely make any difference anyway.
Initially there was no cut off date, until it was spotted, and of course if it didn’t make a difference they wouldn’t use it.
@ Clark
“Steph also already worked this out on another thread. The maximum difference she came up with by a completely different method was 14% ie. about one seventh”.
14%, so far more than 0.07%?
@ Clark
“Covid might help kill off conspiracy theory”.
Maybe, but its certainly helped kill off the flu, this year!
@ Glenn-UK
“I’m inclined to believe the world’s entire medical establishment”.
Even when they disagree with each other and change their expert opinion?
“These figures are not exact, but its far LESS THAN 0.13% because this figure conflates died WITH and died FROM and counts deaths from all causes, run over by a bus, as covid, if within 28 days of a Positive (includes False Positives) test.”
Dave, the page you linked lists two figures, “Deaths within 28 days of positive test” at 88,590 and “Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate” at 89,243 which are pretty much in agreement. For what it’s worth I have used the figures which use the death certificate method.
“I think your giving a percentage of certain deaths as a percentage from all causes……….”
I did exactly the same calculation as you have used for covid deaths for each of the 5 leading causes of deaths in 2019 using ONS data. I divided the numbers of deaths from each cause by the total population expressed as a percentage. All the figures are from ONS both the deaths data from table 9 and the population data. The data is from England and Wales hence the population figure excludes Scotland and N.Ireland. The figures are in the table. The table also shows for each cause listed the percentage of the total deaths for that year. As a comparison, Covid deaths for 2020 represent 12.7% of all 2020 deaths. See here.
@ ET
“As a comparison, Covid (related) deaths for 2020 represent 12.7% of all 2020 deaths”
So 12.7% triggers an unprecedented counter-productive response imposing a communist dictatorship as a solution to a respiratory virus!
And the other 87.3%?
I think at 12.7% of total 2020 deaths it is going to be the leading cause of death in 2020. That is a substantial percentage of total deaths Dave. Only Dementia and Alzheimer disease (12.5% total 2019 deaths) and Ischaemic Heart Disease (10.4% total 2019 deaths) come close to a similar percentage of total deaths. Governments the world over spend fortunes managing both of those diseases and should also manage covid. Before 2020 covid didn’t exist as a cause of death. I’d expect any government to respond to such circumstances and if they didn’t I would be seriously questioning why not.
I don’t think the UK or Ireland are under dictatorship Dave but neither do I think either government’s response was adequate. I am from Ireland and have lived in the UK for many years but no longer live in either jurisdiction. Where I live the government got it largely right. They closed the borders, had an initial lockdown beginning in March 2020 and tracked and traced properly and required self isolation at home if found to be positive. Restrictions were lifted in July 2020 except for border controls because we had zero cases for many days. If you travelled off island you had to self isolate for 14 days on return, an inconvenience for sure but a minor one. Everything was essentially normal from July to end of December 2020. Everything was open, all businesses trading, no social dstancing or masks required. No dictatorship. Unfortunately, on New Year’s Eve two people were found to be positive 7 days after completing their self isolation period and we are currently under a lockdown. I fully expect that when they get this under control they will remove the lockdown restrictions again. They are put in place for a reason and removed when that reason is no longer present. Doesn’t look like a dictatorship to me.
@ ET
“Governments the world over spend fortunes managing both of those diseases and should also manage covid”.
I agree how much has been spent so far?
“I don’t think the UK or Ireland are under dictatorship”.
The UK government is ruling by decree and have illegally banned all social and political gatherings, with the BBC/MSM broadcasting government propaganda 24/7, a deliberate tactic to suppress dissent. Illegal because they claim the authority of the 1984 Public Health Act, but this only allows a proportionate, NOT vastly disproportionate response to an infectious disease.
Dave:
12:43, #65284 – “14%, so far more than 0.07%?”
No, Steph worked out that the UK definition would result in 14% more deaths recorded as covid than the WHO definition but, based on ET’s figures of 88,590 and 89,243 I suspect it’s an overestimate and they’d work out pretty much the same in practice.
13:20, #65291 – “an unprecedented counter-productive response…”
1) It’s not unprecedented; many US cities imposed social restrictions during the 1918 “Spanish” ‘flu pandemic.
2) It’s not unprecedented; in fact, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and similar international instruments have exceptions to the Right of Assembly and the Right to Liberty specifically for health emergencies, so that social restrictions and quarantine can be imposed. These exceptions were written in from the start, because social restrictions and quarantine are the normal, standard public health measures for dealing with epidemics. It just that none of us has experienced an epidemic or pandemic before because they don’t happen very often.
3) It’s not counter-productive; just look at the graphs. When restrictions are imposed the infection rate turns from rising to declining, and the death rate follows the same trend after a short time. Loads of US states lifted restrictions, but the infection and death rates soared so they had to reimpose them.
– “The UK government is ruling by decree and have illegally banned all social and political gatherings”
Yeah I know; some friends of mine holding a small, outdoor, socially distanced and masked demonstration against seismic surveying for gas off the Yorkshire coast were dispersed by police under the covid regulations. Meanwhile, pubs and cafés across the street were packed.
This government are a bunch of arseholes and corrupt as fuck into the bargain; pardon my JavaScript.
Dave, you’re becoming tedious. Name one credible medical institution that agrees with your position.
Also, you ducked the question about what exactly you think is filling hospitals.
You’re trolling, in any case. Any halfwit can ask stupid questions and make baseless assertions all day, you could be claiming the world is flat, or that invisible demons are really responsible for the movement of objects to deny Newton’s laws of motion, or that death rays from Mars are really responsible for heart attacks. It isn’t clever, it’s idiotic trolling.
While all this might be giving you a chuckle, your brand of stupidity is costing lives. Why don’t you get down to your local hospital and work as a porter on the Covid wards for a bit, see for yourself?
Dave, glenn_uk has a point; several in fact. I know some sites and YouTube vids say the wards are empty and hospital staff won’t let you go and look for yourself, and in reply, staff say they don’t let people in due to infection risk and you can’t film patients because they’re entitled to privacy. But you could go volunteer and see for yourself that way.
And you do need explain the statements of all the hospitals, doctors, medical authorities, independent medical journals etc. etc. They’ve all been highly critical of government policies, saying that governments didn’t lock down soon enough.
