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thx fonso (just saw it. Have to read it.)
It was unclear whether this would ever take place.
Katanovski always mused “no way”.German SoS Baerbock officially is against negotiations, Washington, officially in favour.
machine-transl.:“Perseverance slogans from Berlin
Baerbock rejects “freezing” the war in Ukraine and thus a ceasefire. US politicians are calling for an end to the fighting because of military failure and recruiting problems.”If any of this is real I don´t know. And whether any of this actually matters. Since I doubt RUs will do anything that would hurt their national interest, understandably so.
Moon of Alabama has more on the US side of this story:
“Zelenski’s Rose Tinted Media Strategy – New Orders From DC”
Bernard´s verdict:
“If the Ukraine does not start to negotiate with Russia within the next few weeks Zelenski will be replaced.”
Moon of Alabama recommending Gordon Hahn´s latest piece:
“Sad Clown with the Circus Closed Down*: Zelenskiy’s Demise”
https://gordonhahn.com/2023/12/11/sad-clown-with-the-circus-closed-down-zelenskiys-demise/
in this blog post:
“‘Zelenski’s Demise’ – Gordon Hahn Provides His Political Obit – Gordon Hahn has written a political obituary of Vladimir Zelenski and the Ukrainian state.”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/12/zelenskis-demise.html#comments
Of course of course…, instead of admitting that the Ukraine policy failed, the german gov. will rather suffer “suicide” at home:
Germany may declare emergency over Ukraine – Scholz
The chancellor has called on parliament to bypass the national debt threshold for the sake of helping Kievhttps://swentr.site/news/589016-germany-declare-emergency-ukraine-scholz/
De-industralization, poverty, GDP decline, oh that is a great recipe for Germany as history have proved many times…..And then the same people wonder why the far-right are gaining votes.
JACK & TATYANA
and this “suicide” by the Germans, together with all of Europe, will go on.
One of you two last week, I think, worried about a German private statement demanding WMDs. I kind of dismissed that. But I change my view a bit (but still having no inside info on this).
Considering that the EU will bribe Hungary to accept Ukraine into EU – sooner or later – the stage is prepared for little brother EU to go “nuclear” concerning at least WMD capabilities & potential.
In the 1950s when this was a big issue the last time all parties were too afraid and frankly the US was way too powerful. So it was not necessary. The geopolitics have changed. And if Ukraine on its own won’t do as an offensive platform than the EU will take over that role (adopting Ukraine).
And for that it doesn´t matter who is called victorious in the UKR war. And it is of no matter how much territory will end up with UKR eventually.
In fact EU could very well send back Ukrainians to build up a shiny new Ukraine where only the HQs of companies are truly shiny. Once a so-called peace has been achieved.
So the US can take care of bigger issues.
The Gazan massacre has proven to the US that it can 100% rely on Europe now. Until EU governments might fail and are forced domestically to alter course. But that will take decades.
As always I am advocating for action and for optimism. But one shall never close eyes from the current realities.
This substack entry by “Karl Sanchez” on Arestovich I read differently than the poster:
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/arestovich-goes-offIt’s a Tweet put forward by Arestovich: Basically saying the war is over since the US is NOT increasing arms production.
And then he suggests that is bad for the West.Since Arestovich often is writing IMO in a clumsy abstract way, his tweet too is open to other interpretations. Such as that this war, on a certain deeper level, never seriously was about toppling RU. It was about pushing the EU to become an anti-RU bulwark. (Or does he actually MEAN that too? Without expressing it openly? And I didn´t get it? hmm…)
And that major goal has been achieved (as were the major US geopolitical goals achieved in Iraq and Afghanistan).
Noam Chomsky (yes him again) has held a notion on the Vietnam War which always made a lot of sense to me:
The bottom line of that war was always destroying popular movements. Independent democratic projects in order to prove to other countries that they would fall victim to the same kind of savagery if they were attempting the same.
Historically Vietnam was not a buddy of China. Originally they didn´t want ANY empire to interfere. The Communist-domino theory overlooked that but offered enough grounds for justifying the destruction, which had been the main purpose.
And in that sense, Vietnam was a victory. After all the country and its society were wrecked.
Ukraine as well has fulfilled its purpose. And if Vietnam taught the US one thing – never sacrifice your own people.
So the WMD demands last week and the discussion over admission of UKR to the EU this week may align with the same one strategy.
a German article about the EU-outlines on the near future regarding RU.
It´s like an indirect declaration of low intensity war in the long run:“What will be in the final declaration of the European Council today – you can find out here“
(Of course built on lies):
text excerpts:
“The European Council underlines the urgent need to accelerate the delivery of missiles and ammunition, in particular under the one million rounds of artillery ammunition initiative, and to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems. The European Council calls on the Council to intensify work on reforming the European Instrument for Peace and further increasing its funding, based on the High Representative’s proposal. The European Union and its Member States remain committed to providing security commitments to Ukraine over the long term and together with partners, which will help Ukraine defend itself, resist destabilizing efforts and deter future acts of aggression.”
“The European Council strongly condemns all hybrid attacks, including the instrumentalization of migrants by third countries for political purposes, and remains committed to ensuring effective control over the EU’s external borders.
The European Union is committed to countering the ongoing hybrid attacks on its external borders launched by the Russian Federation and Belarus.”“The aim is to advance the establishment of a tribunal to prosecute the crime of aggression against Ukraine, which should enjoy broad cross-border support and legitimacy. This could also be a mechanism for compensation.”
“The European Council also reiterates “its support for the work of the International Criminal Court and condemns Russia’s continued attempts to undermine its international mandate and function.”
“The European Council supports “all efforts” to facilitate the export of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine to the countries most in need, primarily in Africa and the Middle East. They also see the importance of the EU’s so-called solidarity corridors and call on the Commission to accelerate cooperation with the member states. New measures could be taken to increase the capacity of the solidarity corridors. The so-called solidarity corridors are shipping routes through which Ukrainian grain is exported.”
This I believe is the original EU document from Oct. 27th, cited from above.
It is an assessment by the European Council of the RU sit. and conclusions thereof, 12 pages:
https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14-2023-INIT/en/pdfIn other words they are crazy as I said.
EU is angelic. What else could be expected.Still missing are of course serious budget figures.
Since 130-170 billion Euros are estimated to keep Ukraine in the EU.
Which is simply too much. see here:“Up to 190 billion: That’s how much Ukraine’s EU accession would cost“
The fools in the west keep talking nonsense:
Ukraine must copy 1944 Nazi Germany – retired US general
Ben Hodges has pointed to the Third Reich as an example to follow in the conflict with Russiahttps://swentr.site/news/589355-ukraine-nazi-germany-hodges/
US must protect Ukraine from ‘communist’ Russia – congressman
Republican Rich McCormick has insisted Washington must escalate the Ukraine conflict to ensure victoryhttps://swentr.site/news/589383-us-congressman-communist-russia/
This seems to be a common misperception in the west, that Russia is still a communist nation. The Soviet Union broke down like 30+ years ago, we have to respect that some are slow learners, obviously.
It’s unlikely that they are slow learners, but rather simply too old, who once grabbed onto some resource from which they could benefit, and have been exploiting it ever since. You just need to look at what that person was doing at the time when there was communism in Russia. It’s also interesting to know how he managed to sleep through the collapse of the USSR about thirty years ago.
re: HODGES
If Hodges` total misunderstanding of 1944 is the level of military expertise UKR enjoyed, the past 24 months´ incompetence is of little surprise.
Heinrich Himmler had his reasons that by 1944 he started to reach out to GB/US policy-makers to form some anti-USSR alliance. Now this you don´t do if you are on a road to success. By then German Luftwaffe had adopted tactics of extreme cruelty regarding losses in their own ranks to counter Allied air forces. As well Russian air and land power was mostly superior by then. German Luftwaffe had never in fact been able to claim air superiority against RUssia. So there are in fact similarities but not of the kind Hodges is hinting at of course.
p.s. I am still astonished how alive the exaggeration of German military might by the Allies some 80 years ago is today and how it confirms urban legends (the term “Wunderwaffe” brought back e.g. into a “civilzed” discourse, German “Leopards” blowing up Russian made war stuff. Its 1941 all over again.)
So much for caring for ukrainian lives: Estonia to hunt down and extradite ukrainan refugees to the war.
EU nation willing to hunt down Ukrainian draft dodgers
Estonia’s interior minister said the country’s authorities will have little trouble tracking potential conscripts for Kiev
https://swentr.site/russia/589567-estonia-ukraine-draft-extradition/
Not to mention that the ukrainian leaders do not even care for ukrainians.
Foreign nations should sanction Ukrainian draft dodgers – Zelensky aide
Men who fled abroad should have their residence permits revoked if they evade service at home, Mikhail Podoliak has saidhttps://swentr.site/russia/589536-foreign-nations-sanction-ukrainian-draft-dodgers/
JACK
haven´t we been discussing just that – expell UKRs from EU by whatever trick?
Now it is unclear yet how large EU countries will act. But as morally depived as these are – only a question of time.TATYANA – do you happen to have heard anything in the RU news that 300.000 Israelis fled Israel from conscription there?
Doctorow in his blog a month ago said that was much discussed in RU media.Which if it were true would be another media scheme, since it`s always Russians fleeing (400,000 they say). But not a single mention of the Israel case.
“The way is clear
Denmark-USA military pact”https://www-jungewelt-de.translate.goog/artikel/465641.freie-bahn.html
re: Scandinavia
“The fact that the governments there emphasized that they had not agreed to the stationing of US nuclear weapons shows that absolutely everything else is possible. If necessary, Scandinavia becomes a huge staging area. No, the trigger for this was not Russia’s attack on Ukraine: the United States signed the military agreement with Norway in April 2021; the negotiations began accordingly earlier. And: There are also similar agreements with the Baltic states. They were signed in 2017, when the extensive NATO troop deployment in the Baltics began.”
“As President Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov confirmed on Thursday, Russia will now set about re-forming the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, which were only merged into the Western Military District in 2010, separately and regroup troop formations in the Santa Petersburg region.”
Gordon Hahn takes a new (old) look at Bucha:
https://gordonhahn.com/2023/12/17/bucha-and-the-scuttling-of-the-russo-ukrainian-istanbul-process/#commentsI am aware some might call this pro Russian. But since we don´t have 100% assured casualty numbers (might have em in a couple of years only) I found this interesting as a short summary of the war and why it costs so many Ukrainians` lives
By James De Burghe
https://newcoldwar.org/ukraines-frontline-dilemma/Hi AG, in response to your question above – I don’t follow the news very closely, but some things seep into my area of attention. This is mostly social media, so the content rarely highlights statements by officials. Rather, it covers gossip about media personalities such as actors, singers and other stage denizens.
For example, Alla Pugacheva, popular here, and her young husband, comedian Maxim Galkin, relocated to Israel with the beginning of the war in Ukraine. There was a statement from them: “We don’t want to live in a country that is at war with its neighbor.” It was interesting to learn that they did not extend this creed of theirs to the situation with Israel and Palestine after October 7th.
In general, it is amazing to watch how people and destinies change with time. A video of a Christmas concert from ten years ago is popular on Russian social networks today. In it Maxim Galkin and Vladimir Zelensky are performing a show together on Russian TV, and Soloviev is applauding among the audience.
Who would have thought then, that Zelensky would become the president of Ukraine, Solovyov would be called a Putin propagandist, and Galkin would flee from the war to Israel just to meet another war there.TATAYANA
That´s a nice observation, thx.
p.s. getting a bit carried off, sry: What it so odd, people who are also part of our Western propaganda system are among the same consumers who want to see well-made narratives in their private lives, be it as literature, video game or movies. And many expect complexities in these narratives. They demand to find in the arts represented the complexities of life (complexities that you give a few examples for.) However when it comes down to operate in that very world politically (as journalists e.g.) they suddenly abandon all their intellectual emotional demands towards arts and treat the world as simplistic as a story for 3-year-olds.
One reason for the British pushing so much against RU via UKR is saving their WMD program per keeping up the specter of an enemy. (Imagine RU were no foe. The Chinese still won´t go for a first-strike doctrine)
Fom 2021 LONDON REVIEW OF BOOKS:
“Nuclear Rearmament”
Tom Stevensonhttps://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2021/july/nuclear-rearmament
“The decision to expand the UK’s nuclear weapons stockpile by 40 per cent was slipped onto page 76 of the government’s Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy in March. The only reason to announce a major strategic decision in such a quiet way is to avoid attention, which is exactly what happened. The UK is now committed to maintaining a larger stock of nuclear warheads than China (according to US estimates) and there has been too little scrutiny of the policy.”
another source confirming meaningful peace negotiations spring 2022:
“Amb. Oleksandr Chalyi is a veteran Ukrainian diplomat who took part in the talks. He says “we were very close… to finalize our war with some peaceful settlement.”
via Aaron Maté & Katchanovski:
https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1740238735290069405
and this “gem”:
Zelensky’s former assistant Arestovich proposes to unite Russia and Ukraine and file a class action lawsuit against the West:
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1738902349328900264
“(…)
“Now we will kill each other by hundreds, tens of thousands, for Avdiivka, Yar Hours, and more. And why? What do we get from this — both Russia and Ukraine? What do we gain by losing 20 thousand people killed in two district centers on both sides? What have we achieved in the historical sense? Did the uncles from the regional committees of Washington and Brussels like us, who stand around us and applaud, watching two monkeys with knives jump on each other? And why do we need this?
But there is another conversation with Putin. Putin needs to come and say: “Dear friends, Vladimir Vladimirovich! Let’s make peace with you? But we will conclude it in a particularly tricky way: we will file a class action lawsuit against the West, Ukraine and Russia together. And let’s say a wonderful thing: Guys! Let’s go…”[Alexey, the West owes us nothing. To no one — neither one nor the other] The West owes us everything! Trust me.” There he goes on to say that “we need to tell the West that the European security system is not working and we need to build a new security system taking into account all sides.”Remember, I told you the same thing that a new security system will be built in Europe with the participation of Russia? This is an objective reality, there are no other options. The United States will withdraw to its continent, and NATO will cease to exist. And this is the only option for peaceful coexistence of countries in Eurasia.
(…)”.Stephen Bryen: NATO is a mess and the Russians are winning
Stephen Bryen, who served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, currently is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2023/12/stephen-bryen-nato-is-a-mess-and-the-russians-are-winning/
with a few figures on current conscription numbers in the West and the fragile state of arms equipment.
(especially French systems´ deliveries to UKR seemed to have underperformed)Moon of Alabama:
“Strikes On Ukrainian Weapon Production – Air Defense Lacking”
+ on the RU missile strikes: even THE ECONOMIST wrote that targets were military facilities
for more see:to make sure it won´t get lost:
2 links concerning Maidan snipers case –
Ivan Katchanovski´s study peer-reviewed but never published (a scandal of its own.)
“The “snipers’ massacre” on the Maidan in Ukraine”
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/23311886.2023.2269685?needAccess=true
And Grayzone on the Kiev Court decision from 18/10/2023:
“Ukrainian trial demonstrates 2014 Maidan massacre was false flag”
Kit Klarenberg
December 11, 2023https://thegrayzone.com/2023/12/11/ukrainian-maidan-massacre-false-flag/
important stuff & highly recommended:
Analysis and summary of the annual reports about the Russian Army by the MoD of Estonia and by the ISW in Washington D.C. (=Kagans)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/breaking-down-thinktank-lands-latest
In essence: RU armed forces are much stronger and growing and superior to NATO on conventional level: e.g. shell production, quality of war gear, soldiers.
Conclusion: US dominance (which is god-given and the standard of human life) in danger.
God, how much disappointment I feel every time I read these analyzes of current conflicts. There is a lot of discussion about which side is right, which side is stronger, and the like.
Just imagine, one day a smart person says:
– Ladies and Gentlemen, I have an opinion, but at this moment I’ll shove it up where it should be, because today it’s more important to resolve the conflict than to express support for one of the parties.Just imagine that this could be said by representatives of countries at the UN, or presidents, or ministers of Defense (we have all Ministers of Defense, not Ministers of Offense).
Imagine if every person on the Internet said that, and governments would have no reason to claim that they are sending military aid because they rely on “public opinion.”Just seat the leaders of the conflicting parties at the negotiating table, and do not let them go until they find a mutually acceptable compromise.
We do this in schools to resolve conflicts between children. We do this in court when resolving disputes between adults. Why is it that when states and armies come into conflict, we rush to inspire our favorite and give them a gun and a bomb?TATYANA
you are outraged and rightly so.
As I see it these documents that are analyzed by Simplicius provide us with valuable material to prove the lies, dishonesty and propaganda. Just compare what they said one year ago and compare what the very same ideology told the world until 1989.
An incompetent Russian drunkard suddenly has become the threat to US super power???
An incompetent Russian drunkard suddenly stronger than the AFU which suddenly had 700,000 men???It´s up to us (not you though) to tell people in the West and point them at the apparent contradictions.
AG, I’m not outraged, but rather I’m in despair. People in times of despair tend to look to religion for answers, and so do I, but I’ll have to give a little context here.
I define myself as a humanist, and I put a certain meaning into this name – a person who defends the interests of humanity and the human mind as a unique phenomenon. Sscience fiction books and my education greatly contributed to my worldview, and my education included Philosophy and religion.
I am not religious in the sense of mysticism and rituals, but I’m close to the philosophical component of Christianity, as a humane teaching, as a guide to the peaceful coexistence of human beings. I perceive this as observations of human societies, and some guidelines on how we should all behave so that humanity does not perish.
I’m doing a mental experiment, I’m making the assumption that Christian texts are written allegorically, supposedly some kind of artistic technique used to illustrate the idea. I have my own personal naive theory that in ancient times the biological side of human beings manifested more often and with greater ease, and therefore religion served to support morality and appealed to the rational, intelligent side of man, calling it “soul” and giving it value of “God’s gift.”With this approach to religious philosophy, one can imagine that people in ancient times were aware of the destructive nature of lies and the catastrophic consequences that lies bring. Those who use lies are directly called “enemies of humanity” leading to destruction.
And I see that this is exactly what is happening now – people, due to lies and manipulations, are falling into an animal state.
Take a detached look at what has been happening in the world in recent years; we constantly hear veiled statements of “someone’s land”, “someone’s fellow tribesmen”, calls to “expel strangers”.Am I perhaps a globalist? I don’t know, I haven’t delved into this worldview. But I’m sure that I’m not a nationalist, I don’t like the picture of the world that looks like a patchwork quilt, where each patch is owned exclusively by people of a certain genetics.
I’m definitely not a radical; in my understanding, this contradicts the scientific approach to solving problems, where it is customary to do a trial period with the possibility of rolling back changes before making a final decision.So I sit and think in these difficult times – who am I? Where I am? What kind of world is this? Are these people without conscience using every chance for their own benefit, or is this a total devolution of humanity on the scale of all humankind?
