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The Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2024 will take place from February 16 to 18, 2024, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich, Germany.
https://www.google.com/search?q=the+Munich+security+conference&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB790GB790&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
This might be a turning point in the war.
Ukraine withdrawing troops before they are captured.2 x from Natylie Baldwin´s excellent blog:
“Alexey Navalny Dies in Russian Prison”
EURONEWS (3 short reader commentaries)
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/02/alexey-navalny-dies-in-russian-prison/#commentsBut way more interesting (I have yet to read it sincerely):
“David C. Hendrickson: Reconstructing the Istanbul Accords”
Hendrickson argues AGAINST the Istanbul Accords:
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/02/david-c-hendrickson-reconstructing-the-istanbul-accords/It would seem that the president of Ukraine is very angry with his troops giving up in Avdeyevka
he is going to put the officer class on trial.If he does put the fighting men on trial, this will make him, even less popular.
I think it is soon to be game over for Volodymyr Zelensky .Demographically Ukraine is quite weak.
Wiki says a population of thirty three and a quarter million, however they lost the population of Crimea, pop. two and a half million, in 2014. Probably five million in the four states, that Russia has recently absorbed.
Ten million have fled Ukraine, with some choosing to go to Russia.
Half a million dead from this recent war.
That would take the population remaining under the control of Volodymyr Zelensky
at less than sixteen million.
Quite a few of those remaining people will be old and no longer economically active.If nothing else, they almost certainly do not have enough people left to run the rump Ukraine without outside money, going on for many years.
The longer this conflict goea on, the worse will be their chances of keeping anything viable.Hajo Funke, one of the 3 academics who devised the only serious peace plan last year, with a comment in BERLINER ZEITUNG
“Hajo Funke: A political solution to the Ukraine war is overdue
Secret peace negotiations were sabotaged. Has the hope for peace in Ukraine been dashed? The responsibility also lies in the West. A guest post.”
2/20/24“The United States Department of State”
estimated that at least 900,000 Ukrainian citizens have been forcibly relocated to Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_refugee_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)#:~:text=Over%206%20million%20refugees%20fleeing,in%20Ukraine%20by%2020%20March.I wonder how many people, who once considered themselves citizens of Ukraine, now consider themselves citizens of Russia?
It must be many millions. Over two million, just in Crimea. I expect many, maybe most of those working age people now in Russia are working? Presumably they would have to have national insurance numbers?Only 10% of EU citizens believe Ukraine can win – poll
While twice as many (20%) expect Russia to emerge victorious, the prevailing opinion – shared by 37% of respondents – was that the conflict would end with some form of compromise settlement.
https://swentr.site/news/592896-europeans-ukraine-loss-poll/
Still there are only like 1 state (Hungary) that have said just this repeatedly.
How long will it take for the rest of the EU to come to terms with the reality of things? What will it take?
Absurd also how little opposition there is to send billions of dollars in aid/weapons to Ukraine, taxpayers money funding war in a conflict that cannot be won and to a nation that is so horrendously corrupt.News come from Belorussia.
NATO has now 32 thousand military near Belorussian border, along with armored vehicles, artillery and aircraft.
Ukraine keeps large group of about 112 thousand military near the Belarusian border. Compared to the usual border security system, which consists of about 17 thousand troops, this looks like a strike force.Anyone else think NATO is about to strike? I find this extremely probable, since Russia and Belarus form a union state, and if all these forces go to break through the border, then Russia should distract itself from military operations on the Ukrainian battle line and come to the aid of its ally.
And I have no doubt that Japan would immediately rush to take the Kuril Islands – this was exactly the case during Hitler’s attack.News from Germany
The Bundestag voted today. 382 out of 668 deputies were in favor of the resolution, 284 were against it, and two more members abstained.
The approved draft resolution contains a call from coalition factions for the government to begin supplying long-range weapons systems to Ukraine, which will be used to destroy strategic targets in the Russian rear zone.
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Looks like it’s time for me to radicalise myself. Gonna scratch my soul looking for hatred, as we are on the very eve of great war and I need to abandon all this humanity and peace-loving attitudes. Pacifists die first, I believe.WW3 has started Kiss your ass good bi darlin
🙂 I didn’t expect that someone may wish to kiss my ass 🙂
More news comes from the Transnistrian Republic. They convene a congress of all deputies, there are rumors that they may make a proposal to admit them to the Russian Federation.
Could only find this related to the vote.
They voted for “necessary long-range weapons systems” whatever that means. How will Germany define necessary. There is a lot of wiggle room in that phrasing.ET
Russian news reported on the vote, and they linked Germany parliament websitehttps://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw08-de-ukraine-988604
There was also some sort of explanation. They voted against the previous project with Taurus missiles. Likely, they intend to give Taurus to Britain and get Storm Shadows instead. That is, Germans excluded from the document the exact name of the weapons.
I guess Tatyana I was thinking that to include the qualification “necessary” in the bill means it’s entirely a decision for the German government. What are the criteria against which necessity is judged? They could equally determine necessary very loosely and have a low bar to provide weapons or make the criteria so onerous that they are never met. Or anywhere in-between and entirely on inaccessible to the public and undefined criteria.
TATYANA
I would consider these NATO moves just “as operational movements” for their provocative maneuvers that will be carried out for 4 months.
But that simulation of an attack is already risk enough. No need for the real thing. I guess NATO for now sees it the same way. It´s like a sick game for them…The bigger issue in the direction you are suggesting is the possible delivery of advanced ATAMCS and TAURUS (be it in 3 months or 1 year) and eventual arrival of F-16s.
None of these pose a military danger.
But as Mark Sleboda asks: what comes then? (12 min. long)l
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/desperate-western-moves-to-send-newSince all of this is turning up the heat on the European public in order to make it get used to permanent conflict.
That´s the essence of it. Dancing on the brink of a volcano. Make the people submissive by inventing a horror fairy-tale.For that end you don´t even need a major war.
I will only work with “pro-European, pro-Nato, pro-Ukrainian, clear supporters of our democratic values” says Ursula von der Leyen.
What about neutrality for Ireland? Shamefully, the current Irish government, despite their relatively strong stance for Palestine, states they will support her for president of the EU commission.
Why does this woman command such media coverage? The EU commission president role is a civil service role not an executive role. She is not the president of the united states of the European Union.
I guess I should correct my statement above that “the EU commission president role is a civil service role not an executive role.” That reflects what I think the role should be. It is in fact an executive role. The Wikipedia page on the President of the European Commission is worth a read.
Ursula von der Leyen and her political abuse of her role is becoming far too synonymous with the EU. The member states and the EU council, as well as the EU parliament need to put her and the role in their place. That place being stfu and do what we say you can do.
ET
The Commission is a force equipped with personnel by EU governments not their parliaments.
And the Commission holds the true power in contrast to the EU Parliament.
Eventually Leyen is just a clone.
She is a representative of FRG´s propertied class.I wonder in how far those groups in the EU who attempted to create an (imperialist) EU in critical distance to the US are active still today?
At some point something fundamental must have changed. Enough experts in the massive EU apparatus are aware of the advantage of a EU allied with RU.
How was that thwarted? How did they loose that struggle?UKR War as a gift to the US MIC:
“Biden wants to put the US on permanent war footing
The new ‘defense industrial strategy’ is a boon for the arms makers, not so much for regular Americans.”
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-war-strategy/WASHINGTON POST
“What the Pentagon has learned from two years of war in Ukraine
With hundreds of thousands dead or wounded and still no end in sight, the conflict has revealed that U.S. battlefield calculations must evolve”
https://archive.is/GlPSq#selection-1109.420-1109.42275 min. with Vijay Prashad and Brian Becker
Excellent because Prashad compares various conflicts with the West´s double standard re: UKR
(e.g. Tahrir and Maidan)“Why U.S. is Pushing “Long War” Strategy in Ukraine War”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL48QbnbCJwTATYANA
Regarding your earlier post on Poland and WMDs – my inquiry was answered:
No WMDs in Poland and nothing planned as of now. But we may expect an increasing involvement in conventional support for US/NATO nuclear operations.
interesting piece by Yves Smith at naked capitalism on WSJ´s reporting about oil sanctions:
“WSJ Misinforms by Omission in Article on Oil Sanctions-Buster by Ignoring Dollars and SWIFT”
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/wsj-misinforms-by-omission-in-article-on-oil-sanctions-buster-by-getting-lost-in-weeds.htmlAs I hinted at above long-term commitments of Germany pose the real problem.
A idea of what I mean is here on Anti-Spiegel, popular among Germans who hate the entire MSM and are less patient than me.
(I often side-lined Anti-Spiegel, may be unfairly so, but to call your site “Anti-Guardian” is a reason to not read a site since it lacks stylistic independence. Do I have to identify my work via opposition to another medium?)
anyhow, more important:
“The CDU’s call for war against Russia
Three motions relating to the Ukraine conflict were voted on in the German Bundestag today. Anyone who thinks that the federal government is already radically anti-Russian has not yet seen the CDU/CSU proposal, which gives a foretaste of what lies ahead under Chancellor Merz.”And same topic with broader perspective, Germna-Foreign-Policy-Blog:
““Russia has to lose”
Bundestag calls for Ukraine’s victory over Russia, while Kiev suffers severe military setbacks. Berlin involves civil society in war preparations. Unions slow down resistance.”
