Why are the UK and closest neighbours performing so badly with Covid?

[Nino]

I am not confident in successfully copying / pasting a simple chart I have constructed which shows just how badly the UK has performed in protecting its citizens, so I will describe the results.

The 100,000 tragic total deaths figure was alarming but I wondered how it compared with the rest of Europe.

I built a chart of the 10 most populous European countries using national and UN data the result was the basis for my table;

1) Russia, 2) Turkey, 3) Germany, 4) France, 5) UK, 6) Italy, 7) Spain, 8) Ukraine, 9) Poland and 10) Romania

I then set to compare 2 groups of Deaths per Million with data from worldometers (data taken 29/01/2021). The two groups are;

Group A: Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain

Group B: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Poland and Ukraine

Unsurprisingly because of the UK’s 100,000 milestone the UK Deaths per Million figure was the worst with 1,515

I then averaged the results for Deaths / Million of the two groups and got a very worrying result

Group A: 1,202 Deaths / Million

Group B: 644 Deaths / Million

Why is Group A faring so much worse that Group B? Is it policies and strategies or are the national figures just not reliable?

If the former why are we not learning lessons from group B, if the latter how can any Covid stats be used to inform any strategy / policy.

Or is Group A reporting more honestly?

If so what can we learn from Germany’s 670 Deaths / Million vs UK’s 1,515?

[Clark]

I’d say you could make more revealing comparisons, eg:

• New Zealand – 5 deaths per million.
• China – 3 deaths per million*.
• South Korea – 27 deaths per million.
• Taiwan – 0.3 deaths per million.
• Japan – 42 deaths per million.
• etc.

* Total probably suppressed, but by less than a factor of ten.

I chose these because I’m familiar with them, mostly their numbers are probably reliable, and they’re developed, urbanised, and normally highly mobile populations as are your European examples.

This shows what is possible.

The most important factor is the near exponential spread of infection. This makes early containment highly significant. Two key pieces of data are (1) how soon (in terms of infection prevalence / number of hospitalisations and deaths) was social restraint / restrictions implemented? and (2) population mobility data (eg. from mobile ‘phone companies).

I tabulated deaths against implementation of restrictions here, on an earlier thread.

[Clark]

At my link above, I just posted values separated by commas, one line per country, and the mods very kindly converted it to a table.

[Clark]

Rules and laws only affect population behaviour. Population behaviour affects spread of infection. We heard over and over again from “lockdown sceptics” that “Sweden had no lockdown”, but the Swedish constitution precludes such government edicts. But they did have “recommendations” from their national health agency, which carry nearly as much social influence as law; monitoring of public transport and mobile ‘phone location data showed that population mobility dropped dramatically.

Here is how to win.

[Nino]

[ Mod: Comment removed, as it was posted via an anonymous proxy ]

[Pigeon English]

My guesses are as follow:

Group A

a) travels much more outbound and inbound.
b) because of higher living standard they go much more to bars, pubs, restaurants.
c) population density might play a role as well.

Group C(lark) much more complex explanation that Clark might attempt/bother/have time to explain. lol

[Clark]

Taiwan and South Korea were watching covid-19 as it approached. Their populations have experience with epidemics. New Zealand closed its borders early. Japan had the cruise ship Diamond Princess in port. All these countries acted soon and swiftly; they nipped it in the bud.

China initially tried to deny covid-19 but then locked down decisively when they accepted that they had a problem. 760 million people were under travel restrictions; over a tenth of the population of the entire world.

What are you laughing at Pigeon English? Covid’s no laughing matter. I hope you’re not hinting at something; if you are, I think you should just say it instead of sniggering behind your hand.

[Clark]

Pigeon English, I apologise. I see elsewhere that it is unlikely that you were sniggering. Sorry; I’ve got a bit sensitive.

[Pigeon English]

Clark I was not sniggering! It was just to long to explain Australasia approach for me so I “counted on you” and that is why I added Lol. Obviously it was counterproductive.Sorry!

[Author]

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